It’s on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy

The official start of the election campaign has been marked by three new polls confirming the impression of a very tight race.

As the campaign for a July 2 double dissolution election officially begins, three big polling guns have sounded:

• In The Australian, Newspoll records a 51-49 lead to Labor, unchanged on the last result three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Malcolm Turnbull is on 38% approval (up two) and 49% disapproval (steady), with Bill Shorten respectively on 33% (up two) and 52% (steady). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-27, little changed on the 47-28 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of about 1739. Hat tip: James J in comments.

• In the Fairfax papers, Ipsos goes the other way, with a 51-49 lead to the Coalition after a 50-50 result three weeks ago. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 33% and 14%. Despite that, there’s been a big improvement in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings, his approval up five to 38% and disapproval down six to 49%. Turnbull’s ratings, which have been markedly better from Ipsos than Newspoll, have him down three on approval to 48%, and up two on disapproval to 40%. The poll also found the budget to be deemed fair by 37% and unfair by 43%, which compares with 52% and 33% after last year’s budget, and 33% and 63% after the disaster the year before (when the series was conducted by Nielsen rather than Ipsos). Fifty-three per cent of respondents expected the Coalition would win the election, compared with 24% for Labor.

• News Corp’s Sunday tabloids also had a Galaxy poll overnight that had the result at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. While the Newspoll and Galaxy result both come from the same firm and involved a combination of online and phone polling, the phone polling for the Galaxy result was, I believe, live interview rather than automated. The Galaxy also found low recognition of Scott Morrison as Treasurer (48%) and Chris Bowen as Shadow Treasurer (18%), and had a few attidinal questions whose wording Labor wouldn’t have minded: “Do you consider it fair or unfair that only workers earning more than $80,000 a year got a tax cut in the budget?”, recording 28% for fair and 62% for unfair, and “do you support or oppose Labor’s plan to leave the deficit levy in place so that workers earning over $180,000 a year pay more tax?”, which got 63% for support and 21% for oppose. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1270.

I’ll be running all that through the Bludgermator a little later to produce BludgerTrack projections, so watch this space.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack has had a feel of the four new opinion polls and found them to be, if not exactly budget bouncy, then tending to ameliorate what was probably an excessively favourable reading for Labor last week. The Coalition is now credited with having its nose in front on two-party preferred, assisted by a ReachTEL result that was better for them than the headline figure of 50-50 made it appear. That was based on respondent-allocated preferences, but on 2013 election preferences it comes out as 51.6-48.4. I don’t have any state data from the latest round of polls, so the state relativities are unchanged from last week’s result. The seat projection has the Coalition clearly back in majority government territory after making one gain apiece in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Note that primary vote and two-party charts are now featured below going back to the start of the year, with a further two-party chart continuing to show progress since the start of the term. Three polls have provided new leadership ratings, including the Morgan poll together with Newspoll and Ipsos. The trend results suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s downward plunge might at least be levelling off, but an improvement for Bill Shorten that can be traced back to the start of the year is, if anything, gaining momentum.

bludgertrack-2016-05-09b

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,094 comments on “It’s on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy”

Comments Page 14 of 22
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  1. BB

    Not a sermon. It was an attempt at an explanation. A case of knowledge is better than ignorance. Thats all.

    If I was doing a sermon you would know it. In my comments today I have specifically said I am on no pedestal here. So please stop with the sermon nonsense.

  4. [rude, crude, ugly, nasty and vicious]
    I’m happy to skip ugly I get that a lot and it is water off a ducks back.
    Lets go through the others individually and I’d like you to illustrate ‘rude’ from my posts. Particularly in the context with Adrian I’d like to know how I was the crude, nasty and vicious one, I’m pretty sure if you read back you’ll see he swore at me I responded with humour, he implied I should / would in a pub be beaten up for expressing my opinion and then backing it up with a humour metaphor. I am honestly surprised by your abuse. I had genuinely asked you a question I was interested in and that is what I get. I give up.

  7. Christ! Now you’re telling me I’m ignorant.

    Just eff off with your commentary on my motivations and how they might be perceived, will you?

  8. [If I was doing a sermon you would know it. In my comments today I have specifically said I am on no pedestal here. So please stop with the sermon nonsense.]

    Don’t worry about it Guytaur it is a rejection of your point of view that doesn’t have the courage or honesty to actually address your point of view, on a site where the point of the site is sharing different points of view.
    And we have learned that if you perceive something is racist and you have the courage to say so, there are some who think you deserve to be sworn at, you deserve to be punched in the head and get called an idiot and then be told you were the one all along who was be ugly and vicious. And then you’ll be told to be silent. I’ve given up.

  9. [I was a tad more left than the Greens.

    86% – Greens ; 57% – ALP ; 33% – L/NP
    ]
    I didn’t save them but that is very very close to me.

  10. lizzie

    But he delivered a stinging rebuke to Labor critics of his party, arguing they are “angry because many of them know that we are right, and for their own opportunistic, political reasons they have to vote against things that they know in their hearts are right”.

    “We remind them that they once had a conscience,” he said.

    I don’t like Di Natale. I think he’s a bit up himself.

    Oh no! Does that make me a racist?

  12. ‘It is Anthony Albanese with the begging bowl out for Liberal preferences. As I said, we won’t be preferencing the Liberal party ahead of the Labor party in one seat. Our local branches will make decisions about whether they recommend preferences or not and in the end let have a debate about issues that matter.’

    WTF does that mean in English? If the Greens are not preferencing the Liberals Di Natale should not be rabitting on about the fact that the branches could well preference the Liberals.

  13. BB

    Well you did not say you knew about the whole DT thing. That is the whole basis of my comments and to me you indicated ignorance of that.

    If I got that wrong sorry but that is how I read it.

  15. “So who gets the rights to decide whether or not something is racist?”

    WWP, you, apparently. From memory you kicked off this stupid conversation, accusing people of being racist.

  18. Airlines,

    Yes, how dare Labor campaign to win a seat from the Greens!!

    Two separate political parties competing in a democratic election. It’s all too much lol.

    RU whining about it 24/7? Am I? Hardly.

  19. ‏@MinhKular · 1m1 minute ago  Sydney, New South Wales

    Ooooh as @timwilsoncomau attacks Waleed with vitroil…he was saving that up
    #auspol #thedrum

    Was that on The Drum? Anyone see it? I thought Wilson was in favour of free speech by everyone.

  24. I don’t like Di Natale. I think he’s a bit up himself.

    Oh no! Does that make me a racist?

    Against the Italians, certainly. Don’t you know that the Daily Telegraph wrote today:

    “The Greens, led by Richard di Natale, are the major third option. They are a lefty rabble that puts fluffy animals, drugs and sexual freedom above the economy.”

    If you had waited a few days and only then made your comment, you might have avoided the obvious connection between your comments and the thuggery of the DT. Now just EVERYONE will think you are not only against Italians, but also against fluffy animals, sexual freedom and drugs – and almost certainly against skivvys and wearing glasses.

    Please say three Hail Marys and a decade of the rosary for your penance and be careful not to sin again.

  26. WWP

    I didn’t save them but that is very very close to me.

    Interesting, as I believe we disagree on many issues, perhaps more than we agree.

    As I have said before though, I regard you as one of the more authentic, honest and genuine posters around here.

  27. It seems Keating and Costello agree that dividend imputation is valuable and important.
    http://www.afr.com/news/policy/tax/paul-keating-warns-of-debt-wastelands-if-dividend-tax-regime-changes-20150430-1mwny2

    Keating said (inter alia):

    “Well it’s, as always, the revenge of the nincompoops. They see it as a cost to revenue but what if you don’t have the revenue? What if the revenue goes to the Bahamas instead?”

    Costello was less entertaining, but equally supportive.

  31. Boerwar
    Monday, May 9, 2016 at 5:57 pm
    ‘It is Anthony Albanese with the begging bowl out for Liberal preferences. As I said, we won’t be preferencing the Liberal party ahead of the Labor party in one seat. Our local branches will make decisions about whether they recommend preferences or not and in the end let have a debate about issues that matter.’

    WTF does that mean in English? If the Greens are not preferencing the Liberals Di Natale should not be rabitting on about the fact that the branches could well preference the Liberals.

    ——-the greens have entered a period of realpolitiks – what it takes to be a party – they have joined other parties so dont trust what you hear at face value —- federal dont preferences but branches might, and we wouldn’t encourage them … FFS
    and leave albanese alone – we’re better than him because we … what … are just better

  33. BB

    Well you did not say you knew about the whole DT thing. That is the whole basis of my comments and to me you indicated ignorance of that.

    If I got that wrong sorry but that is how I read it.

    I don’t care if you apologize or not. I just wish you’d leave off with the judgmental bullshit and the free advice. I don’t sit around the keyboard all day so that I can rehash tweets and write “Shorten presser now” in order to achieve relevance. And I certainly don’t read the Daily Telegraph to check whether what I think will be misinterpreted as racist or not.

    I’m just not fond of Waleed Aly, the way he operates or what he says… can you get that through your thick skull? I gave my reasons why, but I’m not prepared to write a book about it, justifying myself and my opinions to keep you happy.

  34. airlines @ #564 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 4:46 pm

    jackol @ #558 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 4:40 pm

    Jensen is either an idiot or a glutton for punishment.
    Not getting the message from the preselections that went against him time after time, now he wants to be rejected by his public in the most publicly humiliating way possible?
    I’m going to be generous and predict he’ll get 3% at the election. Go Dennis!

    I think he’ll manage to break the 5% barrier – if you don’t you’re generally an MP that has been indicted on something (Craig Thompson, Peter Slipper). Being uninspiring will still get you votes, somehow.

    He will also get 6 months salary if he loses his seat, as opposed to retiring from it. Nice money.

  35. Personality politics alive and well on PB.

    When someone calls you a racist because you wrote a comment about a twerp who won a Gold Logie (FFS), then, yes, it gets personal.

  37. With this sort of comment from the DT, I’m glad that I never see it. Stupidity in its purest form.

    “They are a lefty rabble that puts fluffy animals, drugs and sexual freedom above the economy.”

  39. BK, that’s why the media likes Cormann. They can write the good positive Coalition story before they do the interview. Easy to question, no stress answers. It’s like a media release. Now that’ s not hard, is it?

    I should be a journalist … except at Fairfax where it’s better to be something else.

  41. Just a reminder, it was Albanese who set the tone for the campaign in his seat of Grayndler.

    … Mr Albanese signalled a knockdown battle in the electorate with a savage attack on his Greens rival, Jim Casey, whom he targeted without uttering Mr Casey’s name.

    “The Greens political party candidate who has been chosen in this electorate has spent more time in the international socialist organisation than he has in the Greens political party,” Mr Albanese claimed. “If he was fair dinkum, he would run as an international socialist and see how many votes he got. ”
    ::::

    Mr Casey, currently on leave from his post as state secretary of the NSW Fire Brigade Employees Union, said Mr Albanese was running a “reds under the beds scare campaign” in a sign that “Anthony is a little bit worried”.

    He described the international socialists as a “now defunct student organisation”, which he’d left more than a decade ago, and that it was “sad” to see a prominent member of Labor attacking someone for having “left-wing politics”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/anthony-albanese-to-recontest-grayndler-launching-fierce-attack-on-greens-rival-20160128-gmfrls.html#ixzz4890xwFvQ

  43. BB

    I don’t care if you apologize or not.

    What I’d like is for you to include a commenters name upfront.

    Scrolling often otherwise.

  45. Waheed Aly used to shit me totally with his book learning ,brainy opinions on every topic. Then when he turned up on The Outsiders and critically discussed an Australian test players grip off the cricket bat and the defensive patterns of Hawthorn, I really felt he had gone too far. Next i saw a photo of his trophy wife it proved he was a show off. Then when i heard he plays several musical instruments including in a rock band I felt his ego had completely got out of control. When he absolutely nailed the Adam Goodes booing saga in a way that no other commentator was able to articulate, I softened a little. When i saw him on Julia Zemiros Home Delivery, I realised that all along i had been the one with the problem.

  47. WWP, BW, can speak for himself, you called me racist in what was a total misinterpretation of what I was saying.
    Then you refused to accept my correction of what I was saying.

    I take that kind of slander very seriously and IMO it is far worse to call someone racist than to swear at them.
    Your failure to correct your misrepresentation and accept my word in good faith and repeat your unwarranted slander is the very definition of nasty IMO.

  50. A bit more context…

    If no two of the three major parties would agree to govern together, Bandt said that “sounds to me like a great basis to go back to the people and seek another electoral mandate”.

    “We should be unafraid to fight a new election called because Labor wouldn’t accept a reasonable proposal from the Greens for stable, effective and progressive government.”

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