There was a pre-budget lull in the federal polling storm this week, but the BludgerTrack aggregate has nonetheless had the regularly scheduled Roy Morgan and Essential Research results to play with. Both recorded next to no change on last time, and the changes on all indicators of voting intention have been barely measurable. Despite that, the seat projection has Labor up one in New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia (the results in the latter being particularly remarkable at present), but down two on the back of a very small voting intention shift in highly sensitive Queensland. Last week I reported that I was going to start counting Fairfax as a Liberal National Party seat, so today’s announcement by Clive Palmer that he would not be recontesting the seat was very timely. The result is that the Coalition is down one seat on last week rather than two, and “others” is now recorded as four seats rather than five. Nothing new this week in the way of leadership ratings.
Preselection news:
• Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis has had her preselection confirmed for her south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after suggestions she faced a moderate-backed challenge arising from her perceived public criticism of the Baird government over council amalgamations. The Prime Minister had made it known that he did not wish for any move against Sudmalis to proceed, out of concern at factional tensions being stoked ahead of the election. Two state Liberals, Kiama MP Gareth Ward and Bega MP Andrew Constance, are reportedly eyeing the succession to Sudmalis in 2019. You can read a lot more about this electorate in yesterday’s Seat du jour.
• The Liberal Party’s trial preselection plebiscite of party members in Parramatta has been won by Michael Beckwith, development operations manager for Lend Lease. The other candidates were Jean Pierre Abood, a Parramatta councillor; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who ran in 2010; Maroun Draybi, a local solicitor and hardline conservative; and Felicity Finlay, a school teacher. You can view the recent Seat du jour entry on Parramatta here.
• The Liberals have preselected Yvonne Keane, deputy mayor of The Hills Shire and former television presenter, for the western Sydney seat of Greenway. Keane was also a preselection aspirant in 2013, but the numbers were sewn up by the power bloc of Blacktown councillor Jess Diaz on behalf of his son, Jaymes Diaz. Following a disastrous campaign, Diaz suffered a 2.1% swing in favour of Labor incumbent Michelle Rowland in this highly marginal seat. Step this way for today’s Seat du jour entry on the seat.
• The Nationals preselection to replacing the retiring John Cobb in Calare has been won by Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange, ahead of Orange councillor Scott Munro, Wellington councillor Alison Conn and Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway.
• John Hassell, Pingelly grain farmer and CBH Board director, is the Nationals candidate for the regional Western Australian seat of O’Connor, which was won for the party by Tony Crook from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, then lost to Rick Wilson of the Liberals when Crook bowed out after a single term in 2013. Hassell has pledged to serve as an “independent WA National” if elected.
• The Canberra Times reports that the Liberals have endorsed candidates for the two seats in the Australian Capital Territory: Livestock and Bulk Carriers Association director Robert Gunning in Fenner, and lawyer Jessica Adelan-Langford in Canberra.
Jimmy Doyle,
I wonder if Laurie Oakes will think it’s a big enough gaffe to make anything of it?
Probably not.
For those who have been sceptical when I have predicted a solid Labor victory, the Turnbull train wreck interview with Speers, following on from his little joke about housing affordability yesterday with Faine, shows why I’m so confident.
He has left himself weeks and weeks of opportunities to screw up. And this was just the first two days – barely 24 hours. Of course, he and his ‘brains trust’ think that period will expose Labor and Bill Shorten.
But Bill and Labor have done their homework. So far the best they have come up with was a totally trumped up allegation of a funding black hole which wasn’t. There will be gaffes by Labor along the way and you can bet that the media, conscious that they need to be seen to be ‘balanced’ will play these up for much more than they are worth (although it never works in the other direction). But Labor will have done their homework – like they did with the tobacco tax – and they will be able to deal readily with the issue.
The simple fact about Turnbull and the Liberals is that they are flying on the seats of their pants. They are relying on the same easy ride that the media gave Abbott before 2013 and the lack of anything even remotely approaching professional examination by the journalist class. It won’t happen.
And by the time 2 July rolls around the Government will stand, from the PM down to almost every member, as a shell-shocked disorganised, disunited rabble. And only their already committed voters will keep voting for them, plus a few others who remain discomfited by the framing of Labor as union controlled, spending addicted, refugee loving ratbags.
Jimy
The same thought crossed my mind. After all, unlike Turnbull, we are all just mere mortals.
c@tmomma @ #87 Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 11:58 am
He will have plenty of competition before this election campaign is over.
Turnball appears to be actively trying to lose this election…..he hasn’t made a good move yet…..maybe it is payback for not letting him run things the way he wants….or he is done the PM thing and is not really that interested anymore
C@tmomma – Oakes participation in that “black hole” fraud was contemptible, especially when it was shown to be rubbish less than a day later.
and
Utter. Nonsense. Mate.
You need, at a minimum:
– physical rotating masses to supply enough inertia to limit frequency rates of change, otherwise every frequency-relay in the transmission and distribution networks will trip at the slightest bump;
– spinning reserves to maintain system frequency and voltage stability in the face of variations in load and supply.
Most of those cannot be provided by solar PV, and half cannot be provided by batteries (a different half, mind you). Who supplies them? Who pays for them?
Over and above this, why are the Greens so against one of the most successful illustrations of collective action – a shared and relatively cheap electricity network?
G
Right now, people in SA who were either lucky enough to have a suitable rooftop and fortunate enough to afford the upfront cost at that particular point in time are being subsidised, and will be subsidised till 2030, by those who werent in those categories.
There was a more efficient and more equitable option.
Not to mention the solar startup chaps who skimmed the cream off that little venture.
William Bowe,
I imagine the new candidate for the seat of Pingelly, John Hassell, is related to this guy?
William Ralph Boucher Hassell, best known as Bill Hassell, (born 6 June 1943) is an Australian former politician who was Leader of the Opposition in Western Australia during the mid-1980s. He was a member of the Western Australian Legislative Assembly seat of Cottesloe between 1977 and 1990.
jimmydoyle @ #156 Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 12:22 pm
JD,
Yeah. Attempting to blame Labor for putting parameters into the PBO that were reasonable but different from Treasury’s subsequent assumptions. That’s all of a sudden some sign that Labor are bad with the Economy? Oakes should pull the other one, it plays ‘Jingle Bells’.
Musrum, if you’re there. I’ve noticed some problems this morning with comment numbers. This occured with version 5.40 under chrome.
With 150 comments recorded in the blog
page 1 started at #101
page 2 started at #51
page 3 started at #101
With 153 comments
page 1, started at #104
page 2, started at #4
page 3, started at #54
page 4, started at #151
The timestamps didn’t change.
I suspect you’ve got something simple in your script to calculate the starting comment number on a page and it sometimes gets it wrong.
(If there’s a better way to provide feedback please let me know. The blog is so much better with your script. Thank you again.)
I wonder if the libs are now getting blow-back for the way they have gutted the Departments of PMC, Treasury and Finance. There are just not enough experienced hands left to avoid these sorts of cock-ups.
TPOF – I am increasingly confident that Labor can pull off a win. The budget was all Turnbull had left, and his “masterstroke” is a tax cut for him and his mates – and he was supposed to be the smart one! Pffffft.
Turnbull is little more than a tone-deaf monopoly man plutocrat who is a complete mismatch for the times – he doesn’t understand that people don’t give a sh*t about “innovation” or “economic transition” – they just want secure jobs, secure housing and secure health and education.
corporate_misfit @ #155 Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 12:22 pm
Or maybe he really is that politically obtuse. It is possible that he is a political idiot. Morrison isn’t. He may be rattled, but he has avoided saying incredibly politically damaging things. Cormann isn’t, but Hockey was. Abbott was, but he was given free pass after free pass. And on it goes.
As in any other walk of life, extremely capable people can be promoted or appointed to positions that they should do well in but are completely unsuited for. It’s not intelligence; it’s not even emotional intelligence. It’s just suitability for the job.
Turnbull sounded suitable for the job. But being PM requires a much, much broader skill set than sounding Churchillian. Especially being a PM in peace time. And he really fails on all the other skill counts.
Given Turnbull’s latest gaffes this morning, the question is – where is Morrison? He seems to have gone to ground and is leaving Turnbull to face the music alone.
It does look mighty suspicious that Treasury is able to cost Labor’s tobacco tax revenue over 10 years but cannot cost the Coalition’s business tax breaks over the same period.
TPOF – The Lib’s thinking is understandable. They got into govt in 2013 on the back of a couple of pages from a dodgy accountancy firm (that just did a bit of addition and subtraction). They thought they could keep doing that.
That interview! When are the Liberals going to realise just what a dud they have landed themselves with? The only skill that he really has is the art of bullshit, and it turns out that he isn’t even any good at that.
And kudos to David Speers, he didn’t give up and move on to the next talking points like most interviewers these days. Maybe Mal will go on with Leigh next to make himself feel better.
Is Tony on to this, as well?
http://justinianarchive.com/1568-article
Also… quick question, why are people talking about 5.5% growth. The estimates have growth getting to 3% next year and staying there until at least 19-20…
Which, frankly, if a growth and jobs agenda doesn’t contain any significant improvements in either growth or jobs.
JIMMY – Turnbull is, at heart, a lazy bastard. He doesn’t do detail. I remember a barrister once told me about sitting in Court once when Turnbull sailed in and started arguing a notice of motion. The judge had to tell him he was arguing for the wrong side! He thinks he can just bullshit away and the facts don’t matter.
C@tmomma – the worry is, of course, that voters will simply fall for the black hole smear, without understanding why the smear was wrong. It does seem to have sunk without a trace though.
the interesting thing is that the Coalition is consistent and these comments reinforce previous ones:
The parent who should shell out for their children who can’t afford to by a property themselves, following on from last week vignette of a 1 year old negatively gearing.
Trying to dodge the costs over 10 years of the company tax cut, however earlier this week Labor had a ‘black hole’ made all the much bigger because the costs were calculated over the same 10 years.
The injury problems with ‘volunteers’ on work for the dole and the now compulsory ‘internship’ scheme. Also will the interns be paid penalty rates ?
JR: …bringing back co-payments by stealth. That will be a biggie. How can you freeze medicare payments for three years or so.
Kevin17 – Turnbull seems to expect his focus-group tested buzzwords to do all his policy-work for him. I can’t believe how Abbott-like Turnbull has become.
@ Libertarian Unionist – your claim of nonsense is nonsense.
Generators are TERRIBLE at providing spinning reserves.
Hydro can do it well enough to respond within 6 seconds with few issues. Gas can certainly respond within a minute.
By contrast, most of the loads I work with are capable of responding within 1 second. In Canada, the response time is measured in milliseconds.
The loads are also much more likely to be located where they need to be to solve the problem. – the biggest problems in NZ reserves occur when the HV DC link between the two islands is either broken, or maxed out, in which case, hydro from the South cannot help to respond to grid emergencies in the North.
Storage doesn’t generate power.
And how do we know this is the least-cost solution for the entire system? Why would we bias investment in this particular way?
There are many other alternative mechanisms for increasing the uptake of renewables over those that benefit the few who can afford batteries at the price they are available right now.
To be fair to Sales, she has a very short period in which to ask a range of questions. Speers, and Tony Jones recently on Lateline, had a lot more time and could thus afford to continue to chase Turnbull down the rabbit hole. That’s why Abbott never exposed himself to detailed scrutiny. He was incredibly weak when he could not hold out long enough to be exposed. If Sales had 20 minutes or longer, her professional instincts would result in Turnbull being whipped. Forget about her cuddliness with Turnbull. These journos would sell their parents and their children if it meant they could get their Walkleys for nailing down some politician to the floor.
I keep commenting on how well Shorten did in the TURC cross-examination. That was close to 2 days of examination by a skilled silk whose objective was to provoke Shorten into screwing up. And he held his nerve for that whole time. That’s why Shorten could face Q&A on his own for an hour and can do town hall meeting after town hall meeting. And no reportable gaffes.
My observation is that when it comes to real stamina and keeping your head and nerve under extreme pressure there is nobody on the government side – and likely even on the Opposition side – who comes close to Shorten.
Which is why this two month electoral campaign, born of the extreme arrogance of Turnbull and his colleagues, is a gift to Labor.
LU
Misrepresentation.
Wind power, wave power, geothermal, solar thermal; all promoted by the Greens and grid dependent. And it’s hardly collective if it has been privatised, and then gold plated!
re the Medicare co-payment, is that related to one of the 2014 measures still on the books ?
Also I cannot find it now, but the actual title of the budget – from the SMH today is wtte
“Continuing Our Plan”
http://greens.org.au/budget
Somebody couldn’t find Di Natale’s budget reply speech, so here it is
TPOF
“To be fair to Sales, she has a very short period in which to ask a range of questions. ”
Oh so very true. Interviewees know they can run out the clock on a tough question. Simply ramble on, or repeat a pat or evasive answer. Then with next line of questioning comes along, do the same thing. It’s sad to watch Turnbull wriggle off the hook, due to the time constraints of 7:30.
Hewson had his cake+GST moment. Turnbot has had two moments on consecutive days – the struggle to buy a house one day and the bidgetary impact of his tax cuts the next. This election will end the same way as the Keating/Hewson contest – in Liberal defeat.
C@Tmomma:
I’ve honestly been wondering if his undermining of the Government since last September has been in part an effort to ensure he wins a massive bet placed on a Labor victory back when Turnbull was soaring in the polls.
LU
We know it works because that is what depreciation is for business. At least the business sector can use this to defray costs of installation. Just like it does with other plant and equipment.
A recognised and well used method. As owners of the business that is the power generator that solar panels provide every owner of solar panels should be able to access this. Its not reinventing the wheel to do this.
As for your arguments about power variation whatever that apples to whatever the source is. Thats why smart grids are coming. No matter if its hydro solar coal or other power generation the power source can be shifted around the national grid as demand comes.
The truth is in future the cost of the grid can be offset by the generation of power for many consumers. For some that will be a net profit not loss. The only way to have that equalise out is to have the government own everything. Lease the rooftop space and charge everyone from there.
Its not the power production that is expansive in the future and its not going to be a one particular location like we are forced to do with coal generation. Its going to be many sources including every home that wants to be part of the power generating industry.
I would prefer the government to own all the panels and take the cost off of everyones power equally that way poor people that cannot afford to install panels are not forced out of the market until panel prices come down to the point they can.
Be very sure if every piece of glass becomes a panel for generating electricity having the city and town itself as the generator and not some coal power stations in the Hunter valley for the whole state of NSW will make sense.
The national grid does as well to even out power availability as we have seen with Tasmania losing its renewable source thats here to stay.
J341983 – why are people talking about 5.5% growth
Nominal Growth?
Triton
Ross Cameron has been ejected from the Liberal Party in New South Wales.
Cormann claiming a Labor black hole of $62 million in presser
So either Labor has all of these black holes or they are going to tax more ?
I think it is hard to do both, however under ‘trickle down economics’ increasing taxes decreases government revenue, so that must be it.
political_alert: Finance Minister @MathiasCormann says Labor’s Budget black hole just keeps expanding https://t.co/C3mQAjNmFL #auspol
So, the chatter about town is that Turnbull will go straight to Government House as soon as Shorten has finished tonight.
BroedeCarmody: Half of all ABC staff think the public broadcaster doesn’t live up to its values https://t.co/KfEkYp4OGL via @crikey_news
Hi Scott,
They are pretty good if you have enough of them t get around ramp constraints, like you get when you have a large interconnected grid.
But that misses the issue of system inertia. With no or little synchronous generation you have very little inertia, so the rates of change of frequency are huge and the frequency nadir ends up way outside technical limits. I.e system collapse.
I’ll give you an example. The AEMO has begun applying minimum synchronous generation limits in SA, when the penetration of renewables is high, because the interconnector from VIC is weak and the risk of disconnection from inter-regional frequency imbalances is high.
Now, the alternatives to having (e.g.) a gas generator running at minimum are: synchronous condensors or an upgrade to the Heywood interconnector. Both cost money, and that is part of the price of increasing the penetration of renewable generation.
So who pays? Currently everyone, even thought the cost are imputed on the system largely by those who have rooftop solar. This is considered unfair by many, and rightly so. I fail to see how putting batteries on solves this problem, and moreover, can ony see how it would make it worse (the economic loss of running a synch-gen at minimum more often to satisfy the inertia constraint is greater).
Anyway, on to other things:
That is awesome technology and it definitely has its place in frequency control – I work on the same type of thing. However, you still need physical inertia or the rates of change of frequency become too great and protection equipment will shut your network down. And how do these controlled loads go at correct frequency deviations over the 5-minute dispatch interval?
Yes, this is very similar to the SA case, there’s both a HVDC and a not-particularly-strong AC link between SA and VIC, and problems arise when the flows hit constraints or some careless person in a trans substation takes out the wrong lines for maintenance… Tasmania is in the same boat too.
Storage definitely has its place, I’m a big fan, but this Greens policy is not the way to go about encouraging it.
So rather than just critique, here’s a suggestion:
I’d like to see a proposal forcing, through regulation, the distribution companies to source congestion-alleviating energy reserves from storage (battery or otherwise) to manage network constraints. In this way, the price signal given by the networks is the value of network support, which is used to support the case for investing in batteries.
These full on attacks remind me of Labor ones at 2013 election where Abbott won.
simon katich @ #185 Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 1:01 pm
Real growth, after factoring in deflation.
Citizen:
Hold on, so how is this supposed to work? Does this mean it will be replacing Newstart and student allowances and the like? With, I assume, some sort of age cut-off? Will it include university students? High school students?
Because that’s even scummier than the proposed scheme already seems. I mean, I don’t doubt that there are young unemployed people gullible enough to believe working for $4 an hour is somehow in their interest (despite the fact that it would probably be more lucrative to just wander the CBD looking for coins dropped on the ground) – the ABC’s budget coverage certainly suggests as much – but to give them no other choice is exploitative in the extreme.
How does a person even live on $4 an hour? Even working as many hours as humanly possible in a week, you’d barely be scraping by… and forget about all those trivial little luxuries like a social life or education or spending time searching for other, real jobs.
And, of course, with so many desperate kids being funneled into this scheme, you have to wonder how long it would take for many an unscrupulous employer to start phasing out all their regular, above minimum wage employees for these new slaves, er, interns.
I can’t over-emphasise how terrible that interview was:
(paraphrasing, but pretty damn accurate)
Speers: “What’s the dollar cost of the tax cut?”
Turnbull: “It’s right here in the budget papers, David, on page 311 of Budget Paper 1.”
*holds up budget paper*
Speers: “Alright well since you’re looking at it, what’s the dollar cost?”
Turnbull: “It’s right here David. All you have to do is look.”
Speers: “But what’s the cost?”
Turnbull: “the, the, the, umm…”
And so on.
ABC 24 cut Cormann presser
late riser @ #161 Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 12:28 pm
Latest cccp should fix that.
RichardDiNatale: Launching our plan for tax breaks for solar storage for households and businesses https://t.co/7ywHfgxrag https://t.co/4UJpyqy9tD
LU
When are the fossil fuel subsidies going to end?