Leroy Lynch offers a reminder of a long lost Possum Comitatus post from budget time 2007, designed to address suggestions from certain elements of the media at that time that Peter Costello’s last budget (as it transpired) would finally kick off that long-awaited “narrowing” in Labor’s poll lead under Kevin Rudd. No evidence was found of consistent behaviour in polling at around budget time, but it strikes me that this matter is better considered on a case-by-case basis. So here’s a chart I’ve done showing how governments’ two-party poll ratings changed between a period from one month before each budget to one and two months after, based on trend measures of polling from the time (just Newspoll up the 2010 election, but BludgerTrack results thereafter). Many if not most of the big changes probably had little if anything to do with the budget (the Kevin Rudd leadership coup bounce in 2013, the carbon tax backlash in 2011, the unwinding of Kevin Rudd’s post-election honeymoon in 2008), but others (1993 and 2014 especially) very clearly did. Labor budgets are indicated in pink, Coalition ones in blue.
UPDATE: It occurs to me it might be a little more interesting if presented like this:
On the subject of wars and experience, came across this earlier. Yes, Fox News (I read it for the funnies … which is most of it). Woefully written article on our new stealth subs. Then I read the bio at the bottom. I assumed it was taking the piss.
http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2016/05/03/australias-39-billion-submarine-deal-heralds-new-era-super-subs.html?intcmp=hphz04
So, did anyone catch Seven’s budget coverage? I watched Nine’s. Disapointingly but not really surprisingly, they did not run with Turnbull’s quote about shelling out for housing. Perhaps a little more surprisingly however, their coverage was not particularly favourable. It included some ridicule of slogans, and particular mention of the cost blow out beyond the forward estimates of the Government’s company tax cuts and Morrison’s non answers on the subject. Their package concluded with a parting shot from Jensen about it being a do nothing budget.
J’accuse!!!
Julie is innocent!!!
She only showed photocopies, not the originals!!!
poroti
The kinetic force killed them but the ship survived to some extent.
It had to be very carefully driven after that.
But it looked the bit.
CTaR1
What is CVO?
Has anybody heard anything more about the rumour that a Coalition minister was about to resign?
LOL, Nappin.
That byline re the subs article is a doozy:
“Ballet dancer turned Defense Analyst”. FMD. It’s gotta be an Onion plant.
Reset
It gets better Nappin.
http://www.foxnews.com/travel/2016/04/25/tour-worlds-most-luxurious-submarine-superyacht.html?intcmp=ob_article_sidebar_video&intcmp=obnetwork
Although, there seem to be rather a few too many more big doors and hatches than generally found on a sub?? Super credible site you found there Nap.
Reset
Yup davidwh, i reckon there are a few Liberals out there looking for that button.
Bw
A royal Victorian thing. He was Lizzie’s aide de camp.
I can see all the comments on my laptop but my phone only shows comments up to 8.34am Wednesday 4th.
Missed that one, imacca. I want one.
…. It is Fox.
jenauthor
Check out boerwar’s post at 6.34 pm
Bill was sensational on ‘Hard Chat’.
Its hard to imagine how she could possibly stay in the job if it is true.
Many people in Canberra etc particularly in the media must know about it all as well — yet silence.
Just imagine the reaction if this was a Labor Foreign Minister – why haven’t the media sort interviews from her.
Turnbull cannot just sweep it under the carpet, particularly when about to go to an election.
FFS!
OMG page numbers (on iPhone 6)!! Yay, finally site is usable (ish)
Still so much scrolling….
Yank Presidential candidates ‘suspend’ their campaign?
Doesn’t it actually mean they’ve given up?
Bw
Chuck Bluey an anchovy or something.
He’s getting it right.
Bill could barely stop himself from outright giggling!
The use of the royal “We” when they do so is amusing.
michael halliday777
michael halliday777 – @michaelhallida4
@vanbadham Good piece from @workmanalice on Turnbulls $4 An Hour Internships. https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/heres-everything-we-know-about-the-governments-4-an-hour-int?utm_term=.syK8EoYYe#.ypNAd4GGQ … #auspol
On my desktop Mac with Firefox I now get numbered items, page numbers with next & previous options and just one comment box – fully functional as far as I can see.
Thanks to all concerned for your hard work.
CTaR1
Bluey likes live crabs. I have asked Barnaby Joyce to lend me some of his.
Amazing Grace?
Did anyone see that shot of Joyce doing his interstellar interview in The Weekly?
It was completely and utterly bizarre. I have never seen an interview like it.
Boerwar
I havent seen it. But everything Barnaby says and does is tres weird
You might have more luck now that I’ve set the most recent page of comments as the default page to open, rather than the first.
Talking about Barnyard, did anyone see the supersoft interview he got from (wait for it) Leigh Sales on 7.5 tonight?
Nary an interruption in sight.
http://stopturnbull.com/what-can-we-do-a-conservative-electoral-strategy/
Liberals discussing how to eat themselves.
Yes, but because it takes time to wind down a Presidential campaign (gotta find a way to pay those outstanding campaign debts somehow!) or if in the unlikely event they want to jump back in, it’s easier for them to ‘suspend’ their campaign/
Just a question, is it only me using Microsoft’s edge that has login never complete, but when you give up and go back it has actually worked?
Also I see references to comment numbers am I correct to think that is the addon script doing its thing, or are vanilla people not using edge getting comment numbers?
The real Liberal agenda revealed – downward pressure on wages and working conditions:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-without-safeguards-internship-program-risks-being-a-jobs-destruction-scheme-20160504-golt8h.html
WWP
re: log on It happens to me as well. I have let the gerbils know about it.
re: numbers. See Musrum.
WWP, all my devices go to some redirect error looking page for a second that then redirects and I’m logged in. I’m on vanilla and no comment numbers. Everything else quite good.
.
JD @ 9.30
Yep. Ruthless.
Shorten did well on Hard Chat tonight.
I am looking forward to his Budget in Reply tomorrow night.
I suspect it will be the turning point in the campaign.
Jimmy Doyle
Yep. Out of all the crap in the budget. This one pisses me off the most. Hope team Labor kick it to the kerb
I have resigned myself to using blockquotes and fancy stuff if even I want to post something important, most of my posts aren’t important enough for even me to read so that fancy stuff will be rare.
IMHO
works here in PB land cause everyone knows it is an indented quote that just isn’t indented, or a quote any more.
Boerwar
Agreed. Looking forward to Shorten giving Turnbull and co a huge serve
wewantpaul @ #632 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 9:23 pm
Numbers are still cccp only.
I think the campaign turned about 6 weeks ago and last night at best slowed the rate of turning (albeit there one would expect some movement in both directions), it occurred to me listening to the ABC read out the Morrison version of the day as if they were still credible journalists to anyone but bemused when it struck me that one of Morrison’s problems is that this ‘jobs and growth’, ‘class warfare’ pretty much everything he said has been done before, so much so that most of it now belongs in sitcoms with ‘Change with Continuity’. He can say a million times the budget is a plan for jobs and growth, but to have any chance there’d need to be a plan in the budget (and there wasn’t) there’d need to be growth in the budget (and what little is there is already widely mocked) and there would need to be jobs in the budget, and like the 10 year costings for slashing corporate income tax rates there just isn’t jobs in the budget.
I have an allergy to non-vanilla, my boy loves mods on minecraft and they drive me batty. I set him up, with some swearing, a minecraft server only to be told I’d done it wrong the server needed mods too. There was MUCH swearing but now I can host a modded minecraft server, I think it is called ghosting because I’m not going in there.
Does anyone know if that rumour Bluey is on about regarding Julie Bishop has been aired anywhere else other than here?
WWP – One of Morrison’s fundamental problems is that he looks, sounds and acts like a crack-head who knows absolutely nothing about economics. It is cringeworthy, and people DO notice.
But I should say I have enjoyed this open public beta very much, and am quite shocked at how well it all works now. While I think much said has been over the top, there are reasons there are closed betas, and limited betas and the old ways still rolling on a different server before the product is usually inflicted on the public at large. But it has been a very transparent process and the original crikey dudes and dudettes would no doubt be very proud. Perhaps Stephen Mayne has done it all himself as a hobby!
The ‘internship’ program ties in with the Big Business agenda to replace unemployment benefits (and welfare more generally) with very low paid work – much lower than the current minimum wage, which they also want to force down and if possible abolish. 457 visas, as they are now used, also support this program.
The existence of welfare effectively puts a floor under wages. The IPA doesn’t like that. With Welfare being wound back, it will be easier to force down the minimum wage.
One of Labor’s first acts on attaining office should be to scuttle the internship program. Second, ban unpaid internships altogether, on pain of heavy fines and prison sentences. Third, wind back 457 visas to their original purpose, basically to make it easier for overseas companies to bring key managers over here from head office (not as a trick to bypass the Australian Labor market).
boerwar and victoria – it’s pathological stuff. The Liberals didn’t care when people were being killed by “work for the dole” and they won’t care when kids inevitably get exploited in this peanut wage scheme. I can envision a situation where regular employees get shafted on their penalty rates, but if they make noise about it, they get replaced by a PaTH exploitee.
Jimmy Doyle
Precisely why i believe it should be turfed if Labor take control of the govt benches
Interesting point, I’m not sure he has the credibility to even make people work out whether or not he knows anything about economics, all that on water crap he pulled would lead any intelligent person to assume he’d lie even if he did know a lot about economics. And it isn’t just Morrison, Turnbull’s current position on almost everything contradicts an explicit publicly held previous position so much so he has done more back flips than the entire cast of a whole season of a cirque de soleil performance, they are starting to make Greg, I wrote my honors thesis (well that is my memory, I have not researched his presumably inept academic career) on a cap and trade system, Hunt look like the consistent intelligent one.