Federal budget: the morning after

As the government gears up to reverse its polling fortunes on the back of last night’s budget, a look at post-budget polling effects going back to the dawn of Newspoll.

Leroy Lynch offers a reminder of a long lost Possum Comitatus post from budget time 2007, designed to address suggestions from certain elements of the media at that time that Peter Costello’s last budget (as it transpired) would finally kick off that long-awaited “narrowing” in Labor’s poll lead under Kevin Rudd. No evidence was found of consistent behaviour in polling at around budget time, but it strikes me that this matter is better considered on a case-by-case basis. So here’s a chart I’ve done showing how governments’ two-party poll ratings changed between a period from one month before each budget to one and two months after, based on trend measures of polling from the time (just Newspoll up the 2010 election, but BludgerTrack results thereafter). Many if not most of the big changes probably had little if anything to do with the budget (the Kevin Rudd leadership coup bounce in 2013, the carbon tax backlash in 2011, the unwinding of Kevin Rudd’s post-election honeymoon in 2008), but others (1993 and 2014 especially) very clearly did. Labor budgets are indicated in pink, Coalition ones in blue.

2016-05-04-budgetbounce

UPDATE: It occurs to me it might be a little more interesting if presented like this:

2016-05-04-budgetbounce2c

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

732 thoughts on “Federal budget: the morning after”

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  1. Victoria – I hope so too. When I worked retail in my younger days I was told by the owner that they just couldn’t afford to pay Sunday penalty rates so if I wanted the shift I just had to accept what I was given. Being young and full of goodwill I accepted that. Nowadays I can appreciated I was simply being exploited.

  5. Steve777 @ 2448

    Great post. Labor is finally beginning to push back against the IPA neoliberal agenda that has started to really wreck Australia. Macklin’s “Growing Together” report is up there with the Beveridge Report in terms of scale and vision – and is yet another example of the phenomenal policy work Labor has been doing.

    If Labor can get itself elected, I honestly think a Shorten Government will completely reset Australia’s understanding and handling of welfare and inequality.

    http://cdn.australianlabor.com.au/documents/Growing-Together.pdf

  8. Darn there is an article in the Australian

    Google julie-bishops-partner-david-panton-sparks-security-query

    She needs to stand aside immediately, she can’t be walking around with that security clearance with this hanging over her

  13. Surprise surprise -The Australian article describes Panton as a ‘property developer.’
    If he hasn’t got the appropriate security clearances she is gawn.

  16. bushfire bill @ #1015 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 6:05 pm

    Well, I’m not stupid. I waited.I didn’t spend any time complaining, or download Musrum’s scripts over a couple of dozen versions. I didn’t freak out that emoticons wouldn’t come up. Or that comments were in reverse order. I didn’t slag off the “gerbils”, because I’ve been in their position and it’s a horrible place, having the customer pacing back and forth while you to try to debug (hint: you have to wait until you give up, go home and – usually sitting on the toilet after an all night session coding – the answer comes to you as you ponder). The pressure goes double when the customer doesn’t pay for my services.
    I now some here pay, and I s’pose you have some sort of right to complain, but some of the comments I’ve seen here – quite personal (if that’s possible with anonymous “gerbils”) have been something a few should be ashamed of. Calling other posters, those who just decided to get along without whingeing, “completely stupid”, is a bit over the top, too.
    Most of the problems came with people who installed Musrum’s stuff, magnificently crafted to get by the most temporary of temporary problems, but when those problems changed the script made things worse… until Musrum came by and synched-up with the “gerbils’” latest attempt. If you’d have just stayed “vanilla flavoured” you’d have noticed many less problems, as I did.

    I take it that you now have comment numbers?

  17. Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has sparked security concerns by permitting her partner, property developer David Panton, to view sensitive documents while ­accompanying her to a UN summit in New York in September.

    The documents, which the Department of Foreign Affairs has refused to release on national interest grounds, included details of “high-level discussions” that foreign governments would consider confidential and “personal details of private individuals” collected by Australian authorities.

    The files, visible in photographs taken of Mr Panton during the visit, also contained information about security ­arrangements that, in the wrong hands, “could be reasonably expected to endanger the life or physical safety of any person”.

    I’m sorry, but how is this appropriate or even professional?

  19. TBH, I didn’t really care about some of the whinging I saw going on. While a proper beta test might have found some of the problems, it’s a truism that any software product will have bugs at launch.
    So far, Crikey’s speed on solving them is OK 🙂

  20. More direct taxation less indirect fees and taxes for private services (ed, health esp)
    imagine if govt upped taxes by $30000 but that is what some families pay for lower tier independent school, health insurance, doctor and dental fees
    we need to rewire and reeducate this country away from pernicious choice philosophy of howard – his legacy goes on, forget about abbott

  22. The DT gave a right proper whitewash to budget today – you’d think it was the fix to all ills – they are determined not to repeat 2014.
    devil in details – uni fees, health costs, etc.

  23. musrum @ #1259 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 9:36 pm

    wewantpaul @ #632 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 9:23 pm

    Just a question, is it only me using Microsoft’s edge that has login never complete, but when you give up and go back it has actually worked?
    Also I see references to comment numbers am I correct to think that is the addon script doing its thing, or are vanilla people not using edge getting comment numbers?

    Numbers are still cccp only.

    Onya Musrum!

    You rule!

    Give ’em heaps!

    Let those who are content to be trodden on be trodden on. You make a difference.

  24. Lord Haw Haw:

    Perhaps because our media is still run by blokey blokes who probably thought JBishop being a woman needed a man at her side to help her interpret all that terribly complicated foreign ministry type stuff that, back in their day, would never have a woman worrying her pretty little head with! Therefore, having a man, even her own man, sitting in on that stuff isn’t such a big deal.

  25. Confessions
    #667 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 10:29 pm
    Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has sparked security concerns by permitting her partner, property developer David Panton, to view sensitive documents while ­accompanying her to a UN summit in New York in September.

    Bishop should be sacked.

  40. Don
    #682 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 10:48 pm

    🙂

    Yes…sublime bit of observation and extraordinary painting. Very humanist and witty as well…

  42. Do our regulators have any capacity to know who might have recently bought into offshore funds with a stake in the Thalys Group? I’m guessing the answer is probably no.

  45. Confessions

    Federal Labor has taken offence to the way a Greens MP has described a bipartisan border protection policy that he claimed results in people not drowning but burning.

  46. Rossmore:

    ACOSS have given qualified support. Personally I can’t see why retail owners/operators wouldn’t get rid of their casual workforce and replace them with govt-sponsored interns, but perhaps I’m just too cynical.

  47. I agree with bushfire bill and then some; it’s been fascinating to watch the upgrade; those that tried to hide it got to see the difficulties to keeping an add on in sync with a rapidly evolving system; nowhere near as entertaining.

  48. The DT gave a right proper whitewash to budget today – you’d think it was the fix to all ills – they are determined not to repeat 2014.
    devil in details – uni fees, health costs, etc.

    This is good news for those who don’t like this budget… they can bring out the nasty details when it suits them in the election campaign.

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