Federal budget: the morning after

As the government gears up to reverse its polling fortunes on the back of last night’s budget, a look at post-budget polling effects going back to the dawn of Newspoll.

Leroy Lynch offers a reminder of a long lost Possum Comitatus post from budget time 2007, designed to address suggestions from certain elements of the media at that time that Peter Costello’s last budget (as it transpired) would finally kick off that long-awaited “narrowing” in Labor’s poll lead under Kevin Rudd. No evidence was found of consistent behaviour in polling at around budget time, but it strikes me that this matter is better considered on a case-by-case basis. So here’s a chart I’ve done showing how governments’ two-party poll ratings changed between a period from one month before each budget to one and two months after, based on trend measures of polling from the time (just Newspoll up the 2010 election, but BludgerTrack results thereafter). Many if not most of the big changes probably had little if anything to do with the budget (the Kevin Rudd leadership coup bounce in 2013, the carbon tax backlash in 2011, the unwinding of Kevin Rudd’s post-election honeymoon in 2008), but others (1993 and 2014 especially) very clearly did. Labor budgets are indicated in pink, Coalition ones in blue.

2016-05-04-budgetbounce

UPDATE: It occurs to me it might be a little more interesting if presented like this:

2016-05-04-budgetbounce2c

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

732 comments on “Federal budget: the morning after”

Comments Page 12 of 15
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  1. Julie Bishop won’t get the sack. Who would stare adoringly at who ever is at the Despatch Box if she were to go? The only other Front Bencher within cooee is Kelly O’Dwyer and she has little piggy eyes not given to the Tess Trueheart look.

  4. Bw

    Temptation removed.

    Despite how angry some were about the Belgrano crew not being rescued someone had to say no.

    We’d already ‘won’.

  8. Boerwar

    A hearty thank you to bluey. Anyhoo. I saw on twitter today that Ms Bishop’s partner was sitting in the public gallery.

    I had been wondering for several weeks why JBishop was in hiding. Now that explains it

  9. Is everyone else noticing The Blue Tie Wearing Octopus constantly listing a litany of own goals, foot-shootings, self-implosions and clusterfunks from the Nasty Team, and then calling the score as “even”.

    Is Bluetie building his portfolio to apply for a job at Mordorch’s The Arsetralian where (un)Fair and (un)Balanced diatribes belong.

    Or is it really his “just a good friend” Snorewar who is trying to join the propaganda division of the IPA?

    Why doesn’t (student) Doctor Bowe allow commentary from other aquatic creatures with red coloured décolletage?

    Has this esteemed blog been taken by Newscorpse too, and so has to meet quotas of pro-Nasty propaganda penned by cephalopods with eight right legs, and no left ones?

    If Mordorch has indeed taken over this site, when will it be renamed Poll Fudger?

    These are the questions on the minds of hard working, average income, negatively geared mums and dads all over this “f**k off we’re full” land.

  10. Paul@547,
    re: Wilson security. I get the impression that they employ people that like wearing jack boots. Security at my work used to be SNP, who had some friendly people who did the rounds, and checked that the doors were locked after hours.
    Wilson then got the contract, and the difference was chilling. Paramilitary uniforms, personnel often found in pairs, generic “Security” on the back of black bomber jackets. I would not even think of asking these people to let me into my office of I got locked out.
    My other story about Wilson, is that the Green Square development is taking place near where I live. Sometimes it is interesting to go for a walk around the area, seeing the transformation. A few months ago I walked into an open site with a few tenants, where there was an operating, open Yoga studio, to get a better view of the construction. Wilson also had an office there, and two security staff pulled up in a car when I walked in, and got out, and just stared at me until I left. It was public space, but I decided that unless I was going immediately into the Yoga studio, I would be arrested for loitering or something.

  12. Dan
    I showed your post to Bluey and Bluey’s response is that he differentiates between what he thinks of the Blue Team, and what Bluey thinks Australians think of the Blue Team on any given day. The text reflects the former. The score of the day reflects the latter.
    Bluey also notes that there is absolutely nothing stopping any stray occie from having a go themselves, taking the various laws, the depth of Crikey’s pockets and William’s patience into account.
    FWIW, Bluey reckons that if anyone was going to take home the point today, it would have been the Coalition.

  13. WB

    After I log back in again there is a comment box at both header and footer as it were. I get a reminder about cookies beforehand but I suspect it is my idiosyncratic computer/programme which is at issue.

    As far as I am concerned, we are almost back to pre-upgrade quality. What is the old saw about if it ain’t broke don’t touch it?

    Anyway, I suspect we are almost at the end of the hair pulling. Boy there are some really knowledgeable computer whizzes on PB.

  14. Dan@559,

    Why doesn’t (student) Doctor Bowe allow commentary from other aquatic creatures with red coloured décolletage?

    I prefer the term proto-doctor Bowe.

  17. The federal government has moderated its ‘surplus at all costs’ mania which dominated the macroeconomic policy debate a few years ago but is still aiming for a surplus (or close to it) within 4 years. It will fail in that goal because the non-government spending behaviour will not allow that outcome and the government’s own fiscal contraction over that period will undermine growth further. The early statements by the Federal opposition are also idiotic. It is claiming it would make ‘tougher’ decisions (that is, cut the deficit more sharply). That just means it would end up with higher levels of unemployment than the conservatives will under their current strategy. Both unemployment levels will be unacceptable. Neither major political party in Australia is fit for office!

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=33481

  18. In April 2016, there were 723,100 persons unemployed at an official unemployment rate of 5.7 per cent. This seriously understates the extent of labour wastage in the economy.
    The current participation rate is 0.9 percentage points below its recent peak in November 2010, which means that some 180,000 workers have left the workforce because of the lack of employment opportunities, the majority of which would quickly take jobs if they were offered.
    In February 2016, there were 1058.9 thousand persons underemployed. Remember to be classified as employed by the ABS a person only has to work 1 or more hours per week.
    The underemployed are workers who want more hours of work but cannot find them. On average they desire an additional 14.3 hours per person. The current underemployment rate is 8.4 per cent. To eliminate this labour wastage would require 399 thousand full-time equivalent positions (38 hour week).
    The total estimated labour wastage in Australia – taking into account unemployment, hidden unemployment and underemployment – is well over 15 per cent of the available labour force. For teenagers the equivalent figure is a over 40.1 per cent.
    Even at February 2008, the broad labour underutilisation rate was close to 10 per cent, which means the economy wasn’t at full employment then.
    If we define a reasonable full employment policy goal of 2 per cent unemployment, zero hidden unemployment and zero underemployment, then the Australian labour market needs to create a further 1,050 thousand jobs.
    With real GDP well below trend and elevated levels of labour underutilisation, the conclusion we reach based on current non-government spending and saving behaviour is that the fiscal deficit is too small, probably by around 1 to 1.5 per cent of GDP.

  20. [Are we supposed to pretend this idea is sane?]

    We seem to have got to the point where sanity is a completely post modern concept. Exhibit A: Our asylum seeker policies.
    Passive acceptance appears to be the new black to use the lingo.

  23. N @ 7.37
    Nice post. (1) How would include total hours worked in your analysis? (2) How would you include around 800,000 foreign workers, all varieties, into your your analysis?

  24. No, we graduated to complete and utter madness! mhwaaa mhwaaa …

    See young William…this could be you if you aren’t careful.

  25. Bw/Monica

    I was in the ‘appalled’ group.

    Please, let us kill as few of them as possible.

    And do our best to keep our lot safe.

    But stuff still happened … a dickhead driving Coventry, a totally unnecessary charge at Goose Green ( if Col ‘H’ wasn’t dead we’d have court marshaled him).

    The last gasp 19 PO’s on Glamorgan we couldn’t do much about.

    To quote “such is life”.

  28. Boerwar

    CTaR1
    I felt sorry for the youngsters. IMO there is no doubt where the blame lies: the Junta.

    Yeah and who gave the Argies the Junta . Bastards.

  29. FWIW, I can understand the frustration of many regulars with the site’s issues.

    However, like Bill, I have left things untouched, and whilst not without some minor issues, I am pretty happy with the end result.

    No post numbers, but quite readable.

  31. Colonel H got the hero treatment instead. Sometimes it pays to be dead.

    I had no idea that the Coventry was anything other than the fortunes of war.

  32. re PHodgson @7:10PM.

    That picture of the Wilsons Fascists at the Reclaim Australia rally needs to be widely circulated by someone on Twitter with lots of followers.

  34. There won’t be much point in paying to get through immigration more quickly at Mascot if all that means is that you will be standing around longer waiting for your luggage. That airport is a disaster, and the baggage handling is one of its worst aspects.

  35. Re technical issues: things seem to be settling down, but the software still seems to have trouble identifying the number of posts, or where the last post is. For a while I couldn’t get past 520 (around 6:33PM).

    On the plus side, page numbers seem to be back to stay and navigation between pages seems to be working. Avatars, top and bottom comment boxes and time stamps are working. When I posted just now, I was taken to the end of the blog rather than page 1. Looking forward to getting post numbers back.

  38. Shorten is going to do Hard Chat.

    I don’t understand why pollies do it. The point seems to be to see whether they can endure with good grace being humiliated by a ratbag.

  40. Vic:

    Turnbull, I think, refused. I think Pickering and Shorten mention this.

    Turnbull would take himself far too seriously to allow himself to be lampooned. Loser.

  41. “We have got to stop looking at the economy as if it’s a whole bunch of individuals, and they are all looking for their little bit out of the government,” Mr Morrison told the National Press Club post-budget lunch. “Australians are over this class warfare, they are over the us and them. They are over it.”

    It’s ironic, even hypocritical, that Morrison is serving us this line when it’s HIS party that has been waging class warfare and has been promoting the idea of the selfish individual out to get the biggest tax break for themselves.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-declares-an-end-to-class-warfare-as-bill-shorten-prepares-billions-in-savings-20160504-gom5jt.html#ixzz47gG6qIbC

  42. Boerwar

    Turnbull has apparently refused to do Hard Chat.

    And BoltA’s program. Saw Blot railing about the cowardly PM, despite the begging,not deigning to appear on his show . Blot moaned about how keen Truffles was to appear on “left wing media outlets” . Good to see the RWNJ wing of the Coalition so pouty.

  43. poroti

    Petty Officers

    Yes, having their lunch when a land launched Exocet arrived. It, fortunately, didn’t ‘go off’.

    Bw

    On Coventry, what sort of turkey turns a heavy destroyer in front of the close in protection frigate …

    Yes. One of those. 600 million pounds gone.

    Not prosecuted because he had a CVO.

  44. BW,

    My take is that Hard Chat is precisely the sort of segment in which Shorten can shine. He is at once determined and sure of his abilities, as he is humble and self-deprecating.

    The anti-Turnbull.

  49. Two thoughts
    For a Budget focussing on Jobs and Growth it is odd that the unemployment rate stays at 5.5% over the forward estimates. No Jobs more like.

    The 10 year tax cuts are worth $40-50 billion, looks like the Govt don’t want a surplus or their masters wont allow one.

  50. CTar1

    “Yes, having their lunch when a land launched Exocet arrived. It, fortunately, didn’t ‘go off’.”

    Jeebus. Lucky lucky bustards. New grundies all round after that.

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