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Hot on the heels of ReachTEL, and ahead of the regular results over the next two days from Roy Morgan and Essential Research, the two biggest media-commissioned polls have been added to the glut that marks today’s resumption of parliament. The three polls so far have sung from very much the same song sheet:
• Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll’s latest voting intention result is exactly identical to last time, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 36% and up one point on disapproval to 49%, while Bill Shorten is down one on both measures to 31% and 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, narrowing from 48-27 to 47-28. The poll also records 45% saying “the Turnbull led Coalition” would be “most likely to spend responsibly and manage government debt”, compared with 31% for “the Shorten led Labor Party”. Presented with three options for what the priority of the next government should be, 39% opted for “reduce spending to pay down debt”, 26% for “reduce spending to cut taxes” and 23% for “increase spending on government programs”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone polling and online surveying, from a sample of 1628.
• The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers concurs with ReachTEL in having a two-party result of 50-50, after the last poll had the Coalition leading 53-47. Primary votes are Coalition 42% (down three), Labor 33% (up two), Greens 14% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402. Malcolm Turnbull is down four on approval to 51% and up six on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is steady on 33% and up three on disapproval to 55%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 61-22 to 54-27. Other findings are that 67% support a royal commission into the banks, with 21% opposed. Also featured are extensive results on the qualities of the two leaders, which are neatly displayed in an interactive graphic at the Financial Review. The live interview phone poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly poll for Roy Morgan, conducted face-to-face and by SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of, is another 50-50, after the Coalition opened up a short-lived 52.5-47.5 lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences – using 2013 election preferences, Labor holds a lead of 51-49, after trailing 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down 1.5% to 40.5%, Labor is up a point to 32%, the Greens are up one to 14%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 4.5%.
Two-thirds of voters back Labor’s call for royal commission into banks – Phillip Coorey
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/twothirds-of-voters-back-labors-call-for-royal-commission-into-banks-20160416-go86bt
PM must prove he can manage – AFR editorial
http://www.afr.com/opinion/editorials/pm-must-prove-he-can-manage-20160417-go8g9b
Bill Shorten’s biggest asset could be no-one thinks he can win – Laura Tingle
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/bill-shortens-biggest-asset-could-be-noone-thinks-he-can-win-20160417-go8fz9
Malcolm Turnbull’s star falling but it still outshines Bill Shorten’s – Phillip Coorey
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbulls-star-falling-but-it-still-outshines-bill-shortens-20160416-go86bz
Oh snap.
Everyone’s now recorded a result at 50-50 or better for the ALP. It’s definitely on.
Everyone’s now checked in at 50-50 or better for the ALP in one of their last two polls.
It is interesting that Shorten’s net approval has fallen in this Ipsos poll though.
Bang! Bang! Bang! the Anti Union drum! That’s all Turnbull could do on ABC24 just now. It’s all he’s got!
The way he and Barnaby Joyce were going on you’d think that Unions worked to LOWER workers pay and conditions and REDUCED their safety at work!
I hope people in the electorate realise that the only thing between them and Social Darwinism in the workplace is the constant campaigning by Unions on things like Worker Health and Safety and Penalty Rates.
I hope they look at the subtext to the Union-busting Truck parade we saw today in Canberra and see it for what it is.
Union Busting = Worker Busting
potss @ 5,
It is interesting that Shorten’s net approval has fallen in this Ipsos poll though.
Ah, now I get it! You’re Rex Douglas but too ashamed to admit it! 😀
Bill Shorten sums it up. There is no cunning strategy here. This government has no idea what to do next and wants an election.
[“Mr Turnbull and his team have really stopped governing Australia for the last few months. They don’t really care about passing the ABCC legislation or not. I get the clear impression that they want to have an election because they really don’t know what else they’re meant to do,” he said.]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/labor-draws-level-with-coaliton-as-election-looms-20160416-go86bi.html#ixzz464fDWAcF
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
[“Mr Turnbull and his team have really stopped governing Australia for the last few months. They don’t really care about passing the ABCC legislation or not. I get the clear impression that they want to have an election because they really don’t know what else they’re meant to do,” he said.]
Yes, Bill’s hit the nail on the head here.
LL – The AFR has put their turd-polishing machine into hyper-drive. “I’m giving her all she’s got, capt’n.”
COTMOMMA – The biggest worry for most voters, re truckies, is that one of the strung-out bastards will clean them up.
I think the flaw in Malcy’s thinking is that people don’t like their families wiped out by trucks.
K17
Great minds think alike.
Trog and Kevin-17,
I think you’re on the money there. I saw a very graphic report on the TV last week which just had image after image of trucks in crashes. Some on their own and others involving cars and it was just horrible to look at.
Also, all I know is that when I am travelling on the M1 in my little car and a big truck passes me, as I don’t go 120km/hr generally, my car shakes and my bones rattle! They also create a backdraft that, on a windy day, can really put the wind up you in the car, almost literally!
love this line at the end
Labor says boosting ASIC is fine but that is no substitute for a royal commission, which takes an overarching look at the culture of the system, including the adequacy or otherwise of the regulators.
On Sunday, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten seized on reports that suggest the government had been in contact with the banks in recent days over the issue.
“Mr Turnbull to so desperate to cover up for the banks that he’s been talking with the banks about how to divert and stop a royal commission in to the banking sector,” Mr Shorten said.
“Mr Turnbull needs to realise that his bosses are not the banks of Australia, but the Australian people.”
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/twothirds-of-voters-back-labors-call-for-royal-commission-into-banks-20160416-go86bt#ixzz464jZkdze
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
Ipsos is 51-49 to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences. Coalition leads 53-47 in NSW and Queensland, trails 53-47 in Victoria, 52-48 in WA, 51-49 in SA.
Is this true? I could swear Kevin Bonham’s done a blog post saying it ain’t so within the last year.
Those who disapprove of malcolm has gone from 17% to 38%. An election can’t come soon enough for the bugger.
In NSW this is the law. The extent to which compliance with the law is enforced is???
[Speed limits
In NSW the maximum speed limit for a vehicle more than 4.5 tonnes Gross Vehicle Mass (GVM) is 100 km/h.
For certain road conditions, such as sharp bends, steep descents and winding roads, special speed limit signs may be posted for trucks, road trains and buses. You must not drive at a speed greater than the speed shown on the sign.
Speed limiters
Speed limiters are devices that limit a vehicle’s maximum speed. If your vehicle falls into one for the following groups, it must be speed limited to 100 km/h:
Truck having a GVM exceeding 15 tonnes
Bus used to provide a public passenger service and with a GVM exceeding 14.5 tonnes
A heavy vehicle or bus manufactured on or after 1 January 1991 being either a:
o Truck having a GVM exceeding 12 tonnes
o Bus used to provide a public passenger service and with a GVM exceeding 5 tonnes.
The speed compliance regulation
The speed compliance component of the Road Transport (General) Regulation places duties on parties in the supply chain to take steps to ensure that their activities, schedules or arrangements do not cause heavy vehicle drivers to exceed the speed limits.
It complements existing chain of responsibility provisions for mass, load restraint, vehicle dimension and fatigue management.
The speed compliance component applies to heavy vehicles with a GVM of more than 4.5 tonnes.
Chain of responsibility
There is a specific duty on seven off-road parties to take all reasonable steps to ensure that their action s do not cause drivers to exceed speed limits.]
http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/roads/safety-rules/road-rules/heavy-vehicles/speed-limits.html
Can anyone from SA fill me in on why Labor is doing relastivly badly there? I mean closing down the ato industry, submaries and now Whyall. Should be 65% ALP?
It’s possible that the Nick Xenophon factor is making polling in South Australia unreliable at the moment.
Those preferring Malcolm right now are winking at Shorten and saying: “Come and get me”.
[ http://www.afr.com/news/politics/twothirds-of-voters-back-labors-call-for-royal-commission-into-banks-20160416-go86bt
Two-thirds of voters back Labor’s call for royal commission into banks
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fairfaxipsos-poll-malcolm-turnbull-marked-down-in-areas-where-expectations-were-highest-20160417-go8b8a.html
Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Malcolm Turnbull marked down in areas where expectations were highest ]
🙂
[Bill Shorten’s biggest asset could be no-one thinks he can win – Laura Tingle
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/bill-shortens-biggest-asset-could-be-noone-thinks-he-can-win-20160417-go8fz9 ]
He has at least two other equally important assets going for him:
His political brain. Shorten Labor has consistently and comprehensively outplayed the LNP conservo-rabble, and delivered a serious lesson to all political campaigners about how to deal with a bunch of filthy reckless mongrels, without sinking to their level.
And his policy agenda is both far more realistic, and far more appealing to the voters.
citizen,
I should have added that I go at 90kmh in the slow lane. 😀
Just Me @ 22,
And his policy agenda is both far more realistic, and far more appealing to the voters.
Doesn’t look that way according to that specific question asked of voters in the latest poll, wrt to the leaders:
‘Has a Clear Vision for Australia’
Turnbull 51
Shorten 34
Go figure. I don’t think Labor could be more open about their ideas. Though I will admit that they aren’t going for ‘sexy’ like Turnbull is. You know, ‘Ideas Boom’, ‘Innovation Nation’, ‘Value Capture’ and the ‘High Speed Train’.
Actually, I do think that’s what Labor lacks. An Ad Guru like Toby Ralph for the Liberals and an ideas framer like Mark Textor.
Interesting that Tingle says the Private polling of the parties has had the split at about 52 – 48 for the Libs. Could well be true. But I can imagine why both sides would suggest the Libs were ahead.
I suspect that there are still a lot of “honey-moon” voters out there who haven’t abandoned Malcolm yet. But will they stay with him all the way to an election when hard decisions have to be made? I will be surprised.
What colourful language was used by the Liberal source in this article:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-party-factions-at-war-over-tony-abbotts-alleged-role-in-the-garrotting-of-bronwyn-bishop-20160417-go88zx.html
So Senator Bob Day was behind today’s trucking protest!?!
I just got this from Twitter:
Kevin-17
I suspect that there are still a lot of “honey-moon” voters out there who haven’t abandoned Malcolm yet.
I agree. I think there are enough people waiting to see what is unveiled in the Budget and in the election campaign to keep the figures where they are at atm. Labor still need to persuade them.
[It’s possible that the Nick Xenophon factor is making polling in South Australia unreliable at the moment.]
Nick is a very naughty boy.
I’m sure that in the past a PM returning from a visit to a world power like the US or China would face a media conference on the outcome of the trip. The Australian people certainly deserve to learn what was achieved by the PM’s visit, particularly in relation to trade and regional security.
So what did Turnbull do when he alighted from the plane? He headed to join a noisy demonstration by truckies.
Why has the CPG not called him out on this?
COTMOMMA – Or does Malcolm need to persuade the voters who’ve parked their votes with him that he deserves them? They’re still waiting for him to shape up. If he doesn’t …
C@t
Yes, no party does factional warfare quite like the Libs these days
[ “Abbott’s lot decided to garrotte her.” ]
Garrotting! Good lord
[gar·rote
ɡəˈrät,ɡəˈrōt/
verb
gerund or present participle: garrotting
kill (someone) by strangulation, typically with an iron collar or a length of wire or cord.
“he had been garroted with piano wire”
]
Am i right in thinking that Victoria has moved back into prefering the ALP after being in slightly negative territory for some time?
Chris Kenny keeping tight lipped…
[Chris Kenny: There’s another #Newspoll out tomorrow, the results I can’t share with you just yet.
#viewpoint]
Is there anyone out there for whom the site is more or less working okay who’s not using Windows?
[Chris Kenny: There’s another #Newspoll out tomorrow, the results I can’t share with you just yet.]
As much as I find Mr Kenny mostly distasteful and totatly unskilled as an independent journalist, at least he is not as juvenile as PvO with his “wowzers” bull$hit.
I have a desktop Mac and it works quite well for me. Except the occasional ‘posting too fast’ msg.
Okay, that’s that theory knackered then. Certainly the site isn’t working on some platforms at the moment. I suspect there’ll be a bit of this sort of thing over the next few days.
Testing
Works on my IPhone obviously.
Apart from that ‘thing’ this arvo no problems here with Windows atm anyway.
Also getting posting too fast on my iPad
Must be optimised for WinDoze, actually would be smart to ditch WordPress
[- “And his policy agenda is both far more realistic, and far more appealing to the voters.”
Doesn’t look that way according to that specific question asked of voters in the latest poll,… ]
Take your point. But that is more an issue of sales and poorly informed voters, not the policy substance.
My point was that Labor’s policy substance is more in line with what voters say they want from government as a concept, not who they are going to vote for right now.
No question Labor have a hard road to walk on the sales job, for a variety of reasons, including a corporatist MSM, voter wariness after the RGR era, Labor’s undeserved reputation for inferior economic management, etc.
[Okay, that’s that theory knackered then. Certainly the site isn’t working on some platforms at the moment. I suspect there’ll be a bit of this sort of thing over the next few days.]
We can but soldier on — the Crikey engine room is a tired old thing and has often struggled. We can only hope this IT “grease and oil change” fixes the stability and myriad of issues faced by the loyal PB userbase.
At the end of the day, Pollbludger is a victim of its own success — and must be bigger than Crikey itself in terms of activity and interest. Crikey.com.au just never was built to cope with a blog as active and engaged as PollBludger!
[I have a desktop Mac and it works quite well for me. Except the occasional ‘posting too fast’ msg.]
+1
I thought kenny did tend to reveal tit-bits of info.
booleanbach@38
Same story here.
[Okay, that’s that theory knackered then…]
Could be all this talk about China’s military… have u considered electronic warfare?
Hearing whispers of Newspoll 52-48 to the good guys
Malcolm better rev up that engine on C1 to head down Dunrossil