Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January-March 2016

Newspoll breakdowns find the Turnbull government sinking in Victoria and South Australia; another poll suggests the government will have a hard time selling its budget; internal polling reportedly shows Bronwyn Bishop’s goose to be cooked in Mackellar; and a Liberal-versus-Nationals stoush looms with the retirement of Sharman Stone in Murray.

Probably not much doing in the land of polling over Easter, but The Australian as always takes advantage of the situation to unload Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates, providing breakdowns of the combined polling so far this year by state, gender and metro/regional. The results strongly suggest the Coalition’s recent downward movement has been driven by Victoria.

Also of note:

• The Australian has results from a privately commissioned poll by MediaReach which suggests Bronwyn Bishop would suffer a heavy defeat if Dick Smith ran against her as an independent in Mackellar, as he says he will do if she again wins Liberal preselection. The poll of 877 respondents showed Smith on 54% of the primary vote, compared with just 21% for Bishop. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said Bishop should retire, and she recorded a net favourability of minus 30% compared with plus 59% for Smith. A report in the Daily Telegraph this week said support for Bishop was rapidly waning ahead of the preselection vote on April 16.

• A poll conducted for Sky News by Omnipoll, a new venture involving former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy, suggests the federal government will have a difficult sell with its mooted company tax cut. Out of four budgetary options offered, this one was most favoured by 3% of respondents, compared with 46% for fixing the bottom line, 27% for spending more on education, and 25% for personal income tax cuts. Respondents also faced a forced choice question on whether Malcolm Turnbull had lived up to expectations and Prime Minister, which broke 62-38 against. A table at the Sydney Morning Herald features breakdowns by age and, interestingly and unusually, income. The results suggest the most indulgent view of Turnbull’s performance is taken by the young and the wealthy.

• An intra-Coalition stoush looms in the rural Victorian seat of Murray, following Sharman Stone’s retirement announcement on Saturday. Stone gained the seat for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd in 1996. Rebecca Urban of The Australian reports candidates for Liberal preselection will include Duncan McGauchie, “a Melbourne-based communications specialist and former policy adviser to previous Victorian premier Ted Baillieu”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,804 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January-March 2016”

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  2. [But she is not saying just what she would have done.

    Just self serving.]

    Well, she could not have kicked him out of the party on her own. As for self-serving, I would think it bloody obvious that her hands were tied by being a hung parliament. Finally, it should be recognised that she did what Hawke did, but Abbott, Rudd and Gorton did not do, which was to shut up shop for the good of the party. There is no doubt that a former PM who remains in Parliament these days after being dumped by their own side is only out to make life more difficult for their successor. If you care about your party, you go underground until the election (avoiding a by-election) and then retire. That is the only honourable way.

  3. Tom the first and best@110

    100

    North Queensland Statehood is less complicated to agree terms on because it has a larger population that Tasmania (It has Leichardt, Kennedy, Herbert, Dawson, most of Capricornia and parts of Maranoa, while Tasmania has only the population for 3.4 seats but gets a top up). This means that a new North Queensland state could reasonable expect to get representation on the same basis as the original states.

    I can imagine some furious debates on it wanting as many Senators as Tasmania, but the other states not letting that through.

  5. prettyone @ 150

    [Biggest regret of her life, I bet.]

    I’m sure she greatly regretted it. But I doubt if it was that big a regret. She achieved a huge amount as PM in a hung Parliament despite it all.

  6. [If you care about your party, you go underground until the election (avoiding a by-election) and then retire. That is the only honourable way.]

    Yep. As Gillard herself did once she was replaced as leader.

  7. New states. This is what the constitution says:

    [121 New States may be admitted or established

    The Parliament may admit to the Commonwealth or establish new States, and may upon such admission or establishment make or impose such terms and conditions, including the extent of representation in either House of the Parliament, as it thinks fit.]

    Bunfight city, I reckon!

  8. Maybe we could just take Tasmania’s statehood off it and transfer it to the north. A good friend told me yesterday they’re down to 6% water in the dams. We might have to evacuate the place anyway.

  9. Re NXT and DDs: another thing to consider is that NXT is nominally trying to go national – and that Morgan poll had it at 5% support nationally (was that replicated anywhere else?).

    If NXT really are polling around 5% then they may well be in with a shot at senators in other states at a DD. 3 from SA plus a couple from other states … that would be a very attractive proposition for X.

  11. Xenophon would prefer that his vote not be decisive on the ABCC bills so he can try and garner votes from all sides as he has in the past.

  12. MTBW

    […and Shorten was the master of the attack.]

    If by that you mean he was one of about seventy plus MPs involved in it…

  15. I see boredom with the election campaign has set in. Secession, Spiders etc more interesting.

    I am not surprised. There are only so many times you can say the Canberra Press Gallery group think is wrong as the polls keep telling us. If Turnbull calling a DD is a Masterstroke then then the ACL Cory Bernadi etc will campaign for Marriage Equality.

    The only real question is are the polls going to change enough for Labor to win?

    I think the answer is yes as the chaos and dysfunction continues and as Mr Shorten uses the prime time budget reply to destroy the LNP economic management myth. Something the Senate can debate as budget takes priority over ABCC and is not seen as refusing to pass the ABCC bill. Otherwise why bring the budget forward and not have the ABCC bill debated before the budget?

    The only way calling a DD is a masterstroke to destroy the RWNJ of the LNP is if you assume the best thing for the LNP is to be on the opposition benches. Then yes its a masterstroke to give Labor the maximum chance of becoming the government.

  16. [Has Xenophon reduced the number of pokies in Australia by even one?]

    Has Wilkie? In fact it’s been ages since I’ve heard anything from Wilkie.

  18. Bluey Bulletin Day 8 of 103

    Labor keeping Stinky’s mire front and centre. Bluey reckons there is no smoking gun but Stinky is waste deep in spent cartridge.

    Labor continuing to foster the meme that the Government is not legitimate and so it should not be making appointments such as Governor of the Reserve Bank.

    Abbott! Hewson is the latest Liberal in a conga line Abbott experts. He that Abbott! Should be given a formal role. PvO, clearly flustered, reckons that Turnbull should sack Abbott. Bluey reckons that Turnbull already did that last time… PvO might mean sack Abbott from the Liberal Party. That should work.

    Vanstone does spleen. Bluey reckons that age has wearied her.

    Shorten on leave. Plibersek acting.

    Polling

    Newpoll quarterly numbers to the effect that the Coalition will win and that Mr Startistical Noise is the only supporter of a reduction in company tax.

    Vanstone does joie de vivre. Not.

    Bluey dug this out for Lord Pollywaffle of the Swimming Pool:
    Il pleure dans mon coeur
    Comme il pleut sur la ville.
    Quelle est cette langueur
    Qui pénêtre mon coeur ?

    In the absence of anything much Bluey identifies a few sleepers;

    1. For pure industrial relations bastardry you can’t beat the Coalition’s plan to pay Fijian seasonal workers and then give them the Il Capo choice that they cannot refuse: get back to work for the contractor or get sent home. Thuggery. Bluey wants a $120 million royal commission into the systemic exploitation of many of the 800,000 foreign workers who are here as students, backpackers, 457s, 417s, seasonal workers and deliberate illegals. Bluey reckons that Labor should be reminding everyone that $10 a week is what you get without unions looking after your interests. Bluey says the Fair Work Ombudsman who is ‘looking into’ the $10 a week scandal is useless in practical terms. Bluey wants criminal sanctions for bosses who benefit from bastardised workers. The contractor legal cut-out should go.

    2. All the cuts that are already in the pipelines but which come into effect on 1 July.

    3. The $30 billion worth of bastard budget cuts carrie dover into the 2015 Budget and still on the books.

    4. The states. NSW wants $7 billion. Vic wants $6 billion. SA wants $10 billion. It is going to be expensive to buy off the states at COAG next week.

    5. Private Health cover increases. Everyone know that the reason to have private health insurance is to ensure that spivs can clip the coupons on the way through. The clipping rate is increasing at between two and three times the rate of inflation. Lots of people are buying junk health insurance and then opting for the public system. It is a shambles.

    Black Swan Event
    A Report has come out that 90,000 Sydney houses are empty in part because they are subsidised by negative gearing is excellent news for Labor, bad news for the Coalition and irrelevant news for the homeless.

    Todays verdict: Evens.

    Cumulative score Labor 5.5 Liberal 2.5.

  19. GUYTAUR – And how pissed off are the electorate going to be when told that they don’t get to vote on 2 July but have to wait another two months.

  20. [Bill (Bowe), I’m not seeing the Coalition sink in SA under the Newspoll aggregates you linked – rather the reverse, really. They’ve been climbing instead.]

    Should probably put more than 30 seconds of effort into these things at 4am. Corrected.

  22. [We had one that I knocked off the ceiling once. It hid along a skirting board, the top lips of it, about 1/2 an inch wide. Four legs east and four legs west. It made itself into a piece of brown fluff about 5 inches long. Did I forget to say they’re smart, too?]

    They are incredibly smart and great for eating insects. My dog can generally smell them (or hear them – can’t work out which but he knows when there’s one hiding unseen.

    They feel soft when they walk across you too.

    I always catch them and put them outside … if I can.

    I’d be moving my chairs until he decided he’s eaten enough insects there.

  24. K17

    Yeah having a 150 day election campaign is cruel and unusual punishment of the Australian population.

    We don’t want to see the silly insults and things you see in long run US campaigns.

  26. Now changed to domestic and restating how much the LNP government has done.

    Do nothing government is cutting through.

  28. ABCNews24: .@JoshFrydenberg: We have already under Malcolm Turnbull made a number of very significant announcements and reforms. #auspol

  29. ABCNews24: .@JoshFrydenberg: The pressure is on the Labor Party to say no to the unions and support the continuation of strong economic growth. #ABCC

  30. ABCNews24: .@JoshFrydenberg: We have no plans to privatise #DefenceHousing, and as for investigations by the AFP, that’s a matter for them. #auspol

  31. [I’ve read articles on Internet saying Reith was co-architect of Work Choices. His name seems to be held along with Work Choices all the time and he often advocates for its return, I think?]

    prettyone’s right on that.

    Reith provoked the Wharfie’s strike (justified, I think).

    But after that they got carried away and tried to apply it to every industry/employee.

    Madness and they got whacked for it.

    Exit one J W Howard.

  32. Long delay on this tweet was said straight after last one I posted at presser

    ABCNews24: .@JoshFrydenberg: #TonyAbbott understands our foremost responsibility is ensuring @TurnbullMalcolm stays as PM & the Coalition is re-elected

  34. bemused

    [Posted Monday, March 28, 2016 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    Seth@143

    119- I recalled that being from her book “My Story”.

    “…majority government would have empowered me to immediately and decisively deal with the insurgency and destabilization of Kevin Rudd and his group of agitators who called themselves ‘the cardinals’. I could have done what should have been done to those who showed so much disloyalty to the Labor Party.”

    Well that would have been interesting.

    But she is not saying just what she would have done.

    Just self serving.]

    One thing on this, bemused, you –

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZSSYqHYjxY

  35. guytaur

    [ABCNews24: .@JoshFrydenberg: #TonyAbbott understands our foremost responsibility is ensuring @TurnbullMalcolm stays as PM & the Coalition is re-elected]
    !
    Good luck with that

  36. ABCNews24: .@JoshFrydenberg: We have already under Malcolm Turnbull made a number of very significant announcements and reforms. #auspol

    And you’ll find them, if you look hard enough, with the dust bunnies in the corner of the room.

  37. ABCNews24: .@JoshFrydenberg: The pressure is on the Labor Party to say no to the unions and support the continuation of strong economic growth. #ABCC

    I’d say that the pressure is on the Turnbull government to say no to the Property Developers/big Liberal donors and support the continuation of a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work for Construction Industry employees. Which has always gone hand in hand with strong economic growth in Australia.

  40. I have a giant one on my stair well right now.

    I think my arachnaphobia is on the mend because it is not bothering me and I can walk right by it. A few years ago I would not have been able to use my stairs.

  41. Boerwar

    [Posted Tuesday, March 22, 2016 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    global warming works in mysterious ways]

    It’s a week ago I know but I’ve been meaning to comment on this.

    Trog was ‘appalled’ about farmers in Greenland welcoming an increase in temperature …

    He’ll probably have a heart arrest if he understands that dryer and hotter seasons are a strong inducement to clear even more land in southern NSW and Victoria so more ‘Prime Hard’ Wheat can be stuck in.

    The Condo Line is definitely on the move South.

  42. [ CTar1

    Posted Monday, March 28, 2016 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    I’ve read articles on Internet saying Reith was co-architect of Work Choices. His name seems to be held along with Work Choices all the time and he often advocates for its return, I think?

    prettyone’s right on that.

    Reith provoked the Wharfie’s strike (justified, I think).

    ]

    Echos of Chris Corrigan/Patricks …..

    Corrigan is best known for the 1998 Australian waterfront dispute, in which he attempted to sack the heavily unionised workforce and replace it with strikebreakers, eventually leading to reform and restructuring of dockyard labour practices.

    Sorry Ctar1 …. whatever the issue was – I still have visions of what was definitely one of the worst “scenes” in Australian modern history …… was like looking at an old WW2 movie of black uniformed SS thugs with snarling alsatians… I hope we never see a repeat ….

  44. learn to share your house with them

    Yeah, but you have to constantly be on the lookout or they become large smears when you close doors just going about your normal business.

    And if you have a bit of dust around your home they turn into walking fluff balls that eventually die of starvation.

    Houses and large spiders just don’t mix very well in my experience, even with the best will in the world.

  47. phoenix

    [whatever the issue was – I still have visions of what was definitely one of the worst “scenes” in Australian modern history]

    I didn’t like it at all.

    But I don’t know what else could have been done. The agreements in place were amazingly inefficient.

    For me that time is merged with trying to organise a charter ferry from Limosol to Tripoli to evacuate Australians from Lebanon.

  48. [Simon Katich
    Posted Monday, March 28, 2016 at 4:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Bushfire
    Its huntsman spider city at our place too. One quite large one but not dinner plate size yet (they get big hereabouts).

    My advice is; unless they venture down low, learn to share your house with them.]

    I knew a woman a few years ago who would just pick them up with her bare hands and put them outside. The size of the spider did not seem to matter to her.

    Despite all her reassurances that they are harmless I was never tempted to try it myself.

  49. This is Just Pure Gold Malcolm Turnbull’s Veep slogan – The Feed youtu.be/2olWSaMgQmE via @YouTube

    Hope comes though as no preview and internet as usual up here playing up

  50. Spiders – Standard Huntsmen (the big females) I have little problem with except they put up serious efforts against being hunted out.

    Instead here I have Gecko’s/Skink’s that can’t be persuaded to stay in the garden.

    My Nephew’s children are highly amused by a) my efforts to catch them in a drinking glass so I can put them back in the garden, and b) how they can move like lightning on carpet but are totally stuffed on polished cork tiles.

    Me, I’d just rather not stand on them.

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