Probably not much doing in the land of polling over Easter, but The Australian as always takes advantage of the situation to unload Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates, providing breakdowns of the combined polling so far this year by state, gender and metro/regional. The results strongly suggest the Coalition’s recent downward movement has been driven by Victoria.
Also of note:
• The Australian has results from a privately commissioned poll by MediaReach which suggests Bronwyn Bishop would suffer a heavy defeat if Dick Smith ran against her as an independent in Mackellar, as he says he will do if she again wins Liberal preselection. The poll of 877 respondents showed Smith on 54% of the primary vote, compared with just 21% for Bishop. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said Bishop should retire, and she recorded a net favourability of minus 30% compared with plus 59% for Smith. A report in the Daily Telegraph this week said support for Bishop was rapidly waning ahead of the preselection vote on April 16.
• A poll conducted for Sky News by Omnipoll, a new venture involving former Newspoll director Martin O’Shannessy, suggests the federal government will have a difficult sell with its mooted company tax cut. Out of four budgetary options offered, this one was most favoured by 3% of respondents, compared with 46% for fixing the bottom line, 27% for spending more on education, and 25% for personal income tax cuts. Respondents also faced a forced choice question on whether Malcolm Turnbull had lived up to expectations and Prime Minister, which broke 62-38 against. A table at the Sydney Morning Herald features breakdowns by age and, interestingly and unusually, income. The results suggest the most indulgent view of Turnbull’s performance is taken by the young and the wealthy.
• An intra-Coalition stoush looms in the rural Victorian seat of Murray, following Sharman Stone’s retirement announcement on Saturday. Stone gained the seat for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd in 1996. Rebecca Urban of The Australian reports candidates for Liberal preselection will include Duncan McGauchie, “a Melbourne-based communications specialist and former policy adviser to previous Victorian premier Ted Baillieu”.
ratsak
Very true. But it is nice to see the “media lizards” saying it out loud.
Just wondering, what kind of colleague would show private txt messages to a journalist?
PvO is urging MT to sack Tony Abbott, is how I read it.
If the senators insist on debating the contentious bills in a considered way over two or three weeks, how could that be construed as failure to pass? Wouldn’t they simply be doing their job?
“I agree Sohar
REith was the architect of Work Choices, legislation that went too far, too harsh. Tony Abbott was against it but John Howard insisted, getting old and crusty lol.
Reith and Abbott fell out ages ago over that I think? Arrogant type is Peter Reith.”
Peter Reith exited politics in 2001, Work choices was introduced in 2006. However Reith has always back that type of individual work contract legislation which disadvantaged a workers being collectively represented. Not sure if Reith was responsible coming up with the legislation though, as he was not a MP/Minster in the government at the time when it was proposed while publicly backing it.
There is no evidence that Tony Abbott was ever against Workchoices. Maybe Barnaby Joyce who publicly at the time did raise reservations when he was a senator despite voting for the legislation. But as a Health minister in the Howard government Abbott said nothing against it.
prettyone
[PvO is urging MT to sack Tony Abbott, is how I read it.]
Sack him from the back bench ? Abbott has already lost his “Precious” ,not much else Truffles can take from him. Abbott will do whatever he wants to do during the campaign.
David
Wikipedia says Tony Abbott opposed Work Choices as being too harsh and other reasons he felt the legislation was not appropriate.
I’ve read articles on Internet saying Reith was co-architect of Work Choices. His name seems to be held along with Work Choices all the time and he often advocates for its return, I think?
Bill (Bowe), I’m not seeing the Coalition sink in SA under the Newspoll aggregates you linked – rather the reverse, really. They’ve been climbing instead.
Here’s the part in Wikipedia about TA and Work Choices:
According to Sydney Morning Herald’s political editor, Peter Hartcher, prior to the defeat of the Howard Government at the 2007 election, Abbott had opposed the government’s centrepiece WorkChoices industrial relations deregulation reform in Cabinet, on the basis that the legislation exceeded the government’s mandate, was harsh on workers, and was politically dangerous to the government.[60] John Howard wrote in his 2010 autobiography that Abbott was “never a zealot about pursuing industrial relations changes” and expressed “concern about making too many changes” during Cabinet’s discussion of Workchoices.[72]
Anyways, old news.
Amanda Vanstone was mentioned earlier on for her pro-Liberal take on matters. No real surprise there and fair enough.
Where she gets to me is in her own little radio segment on RN where she just can help herself shut one eye and have the other open one coloured ‘Liberal’.
Quite plainly she has the gig for “balance” and I am surprised she is not used as example as such at the left-wing-shark-infested ABC.
100
North Queensland Statehood is less complicated to agree terms on because it has a larger population that Tasmania (It has Leichardt, Kennedy, Herbert, Dawson, most of Capricornia and parts of Maranoa, while Tasmania has only the population for 3.4 seats but gets a top up). This means that a new North Queensland state could reasonable expect to get representation on the same basis as the original states.
PrettyOne
[Just wondering, what kind of colleague would show private txt messages to a journalist]
Perhaps one that finds it hard to stomach Abbott’s constant lying.
[If the senators insist on debating the contentious bills in a considered way over two or three weeks, how could that be construed as failure to pass? Wouldn’t they simply be song their job?]
Depends on interpretation – you’d have look to the content of the debate. Endless repitition, speaking to procedural aspects of the bill etc. could be taken as evidence of a failure to pass.
But it’s all academic given that the only person the Government needs to convince is the Governor-general who will likely err on the side of accepting the Government’s argument.
All we can be certain about is that Abbott always lies.
Can’t Abbott be expelled if there’s hard evidence of his bad behavior, as Gillard contemplated with Rudd? (But couldn’t for obvious reasons)
bug1
The Eden Monaro margin is somewhere between 2% and 3% under the new boundaries.
I think it was Vanstone this morning who said in a feat of logic that “Abbott wasn’t sniping” because he was talking on policy matters openly, not understanding that someone could be doing both.
112
The high court could still strike down an act passed at a joint sitting on the grounds that it had not failed to pass, as they did with one of the acts passed at the 1974 joint sitting.
PrettyOne
[Just wondering, what kind of colleague would show private txt messages to a journalist]
It could be someone concerned about losing their seat and/or government because his party was being undermined by unsolicited messages intended to undermine the current PM.
Seth@114
Extraordinary claim about Gillard.
Your evidence? Links?
North Queensland being a break way state is always being used as a politcal football for populist politicians in North Queensland. Just because Bob Katter is the loudest man in the room does not mean he is the smartest man in the room.
His son Robbie Katter is the same build just a mouth. Lots of proclamations and threats but very little substance. He was head and centre in the NO campaign efforts to reject four year fixed terms referendum which was voted in overwhelming in favor by his electorate in Mount Isa. Shows how much he knows about what the public in North Queensland wants.
Not much meat in this article.
[Idle hands are the devil’s workshop, as the old saying goes.
And there is no one with more time on their hands than a former prime minister with a very safe seat and not much to do but ruminate on the past.
…One thing is for sure – the Easter message of love, redemption and forgiveness does not seem in play.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/how-do-you-solve-a-problem-like-tony-20160328-gns490.html
Tony Abbott can’t be expelled from Parliament unless he becomes or is found to be ineligible (e.g. has citizenship of another country), is convicted of a serious criminal offence or is declared bankrupt.
He can be expelled from the Liberal Party if the Liberals so choose.
As per Piping Shrike piece linked above. Precisely my thinking at the time of the Savva book release
[Despite having been published a few weeks ago, there is already an air of redundancy about the book. Abbott, Credlin and Hockey, who were all supposed to be the cause of the Coalition government’s problems, have gone, but those problems remain. The absence of any positive mandate has meant that Abbott’s fumblings have been replaced by Turnbull’s drift. Turnbull has inherited Abbott’s detachment to an undisciplined party and it is no surprise that we are seeing the re-emergence of a “tight circle” that doesn’t even include the Treasurer. Like Rudd in 2010, Turnbull has neither the strength in the party nor in the public to take on his internal detractors, and it is unlikely that an election will change that.]
Tom @ 117 and Itep @ 112
My view is the ‘failure to pass’ test was specifically included in the provision to stop the Senate playing games with procedures (including filibustering) in order to simply stop a DD. There is a test to ensure that the government does not pay lip service to the requirement that the bill be defeated twice – but it is a pretty low bar (though one that Whitlam could not overcome with one of his bills).
Despite various smarmy comments about Cosgrove, he is duty bound to accept the advice of the PM as to legality, etc and as to process once he is satisfied that the advice is sustainable. That means that if the PM rocks up with these bills and provides legal advice that each constitutes a DD trigger, the GG should satisfy himself that the advice is sound. He does not need to satisfy himself that it would survive a challenge in the High Court. And once he is satisfied the legal advice is sound, he should accept the PM’s advice as to how he exercises his powers.
Going back to 1975, the problem with what Kerr did is not that he acted against a Labor government, but that he did not accept the advice of the PM as to the exercise of his powers AND went behind the back of the PM to get advice and determine an alternative course of action. Regardless of the colour of the Party in power, it would be just as bad if Cosgrove did not do his constitutional duty.
The fundamental role of the GG, as far as I can see it, is to uphold and protect the integrity of the system of government – in Australia’s case, the Westminster system. Central to the way that system has evolved, the GG must accept the lawful advice of the PM, except in situations where the GG has good reason to believe that the PM no longer has the confidence of the House of Representatives and that some other person might.
Question@32
I think based on current polling he can get 3 Senators in a DD, but in a half-Senate election, he can get 2, which will eventually give him 4 Senators at any current time if he maintains his support.
steve @ 122
[He can be expelled from the Liberal Party if the Liberals so choose.]
I wonder if the Parliamentary Liberal Party could make that call or whether it would be a decision of the Party administration. Ditto for Labor.
Don’t know if this has already been posted.
[Australia is one of seven countries that Forbes magazine says is the “most likely to suffer a debt crisis” within the next three years.
China, whose economy has faltered in the past two years, comes No. 1 on the list of seven, but Australia is No. 2. Sweden, Hong Kong, South Korea, Canada and Norway complete the list of infamy.]
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-vulnerable-to-debt-crisis-says-forbes-20160327-gns1jn.html
with all the talk of northern WA, QLD and NT I propose that Darwin should be the new State capitol. It’s got to be a goer for Abbott’s support
[I think based on current polling he can get 3 Senators in a DD, but in a half-Senate election, he can get 2, which will eventually give him 4 Senators at any current time if he maintains his support.]
Assuming that support remains exactly steady, that means he could get three with a DD then win two seats at the next half-Senate election, leaving him with three or four senators depending on how the DD played out in the order of senators elected. On the basis that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush (especially in the volatile world of political popularity) I would definitely support a DD now if I were him.
What do you get when you subsidise investments designed to run at a loss… like negative gearing does.
[
Thousands of empty homes adding to Sydney’s housing crisis, experts say
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/thousands-of-empty-homes-adding-to-sydneys-housing-crisis-experts-say-20160323-gnpc52.html#ixzz44AAXCKvw
]
[I think based on current polling he can get 3 Senators in a DD, but in a half-Senate election, he can get 2, which will eventually give him 4 Senators at any current time if he maintains his support]
I’m guessing he would prefer 3 to 2.
[What was supposed to be a cherished Easter tradition turned into a mess after pushy parents caused a scene at an egg hunt in the United States over the weekend. The Easter Bunny never even got to make an appearance before event organisers had to cancel the entire show.
Saturday’s event at the visitor centre of lolly company Pez in Orange, Connecticut, drew hundreds of people, some of whom ignored the rules. Children were trampled, baskets were shattered, the Easter myth was left badly tarnished.
Local news outlets are reporting that children were “trampled, parents knocked over children and eggs were stolen out of peoples’ baskets”.]
http://www.theage.com.au/world/pushy-parents-at-pez-fun-day-create-the-easter-egg-hunt-from-hell-20160328-gns3ev.html
Question 130
I do hope this is taken up more strongly.
Turnbull is doing worse with Abbott than Gillard did with Rudd.
At least Gillard had the excuse of a hung parliament, with very finely balanced numbers that could not stand even the loss of one vote in the House.
Turnbull doesn’t even have that to lay the blame on! No authority in the party, and fewer friends every day.
It was all supposed to be so easy… and when you think about it, it was! But Turnbull blew it, sacrificing his reputation, enthusiasm and zeal on the altar of The Polls. He believed the Mirror On The Wall – the Canberra Press Gallery – who told him he couldn’t possibly lose, and who put this point not as an opinion, but as some kind of law of Nature. They really meant it! One even said he could be PM for life if he wanted to be.
We all remember him saying that “It’s never been a more exciting time… etc”, but that puts his other statement from the Knifing Time in an undeserved shade: “Live by the polls, die by the polls.”
He may have written his own epitaph.
Question @ 130
[What do you get when you subsidise investments designed to run at a loss… like negative gearing does.]
There is a large number of ignorant assumptions by the journalist in that article – as John Daly (a high profile opponent of negative gearing) points out in the article itself.
The Tax Office will not allow deductions on a property for any period that it is not being used to produce income. So, the property must be rented or available for rent in order to get a deduction. While some owners might try to game the system by advertising for rent at a ridiculous rent or with unacceptable tenancy conditions, there are many other reasons why those properties would be empty.
Many cashed up people, especially foreign investors, might simply buy the property as an investment with their own funds and feel that it is better left vacant – like someone buys a block of land for a long term investment or someone buys an antique car that spends almost all its time locked up in a garage to maintain its condition. Other examples given below that could explain the vacancies include old people who have gone into nursing homes but don’t want to sell or lease their homes, properties in the course of being sold or renovated when the survey was taken, etc.
My guess is that the really big contributor is foreign buyers who get no benefit from our tax system but see letting the property as a value destroying risk, rather than an income producing opportunity.
lizzie @127: I suspected (and, on reading your link, confirmed) that it was talking about private debt, not public debt.
Matt
Yes, it was private debt, which seems to be mostly ignored by pollies (and commentators) who talk about The Deficit. I’m not any sort of economist, so posted it for interest only.
BB @ 134
It’s down to the ridiculous myth propagated by the supporters of Rudd and by Abbott for political reasons that PMs are elected by the people and that only people have the right to dismiss them. Under the Westminster system, only the parties themselves have the right to choose and dismiss their leaders – and no leader, including the PM, derives their authority from anyone but the party to which they belong.
In the case of the Liberals and the Nationals, all authority for the leader is derived from the Parliamentary party. With Labor, it is now a split between the parliamentary party and the party membership. But in no case is it the voting population at large. Public support is a very power persuader for the party in selecting a leader – and Turnbull wasted that in trying to get the party onside as well – but it is not what determines the leadership.
[The high court could still strike down an act passed at a joint sitting on the grounds that it had not failed to pass, as they did with one of the acts passed at the 1974 joint sitting.]
Of course. But the Government don’t really care about the bills in question – theyre merely the front for an early election.
[ Mysterious Tombstone For Donald Trump Appears In Central Park
…someone erected a…..Trump tombstone in the middle of Central Park this weekend, and were kind enough to leave his expiration date open to the fates.”]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-27/mysterious-tombstone-donald-trump-appears-central-park
Lizzie, sounds fair. But really, the best thing the government could do in the housing market would be a combination of two things:
1) Deliberately start cutting housing prices by reforming -ve gearing to only apply to new-build properties, paying State Governments to release more land for development (and provide essential services to the newly developed areas), etc. etc.
2) Some kind of homeowner relief for the owner-occupiers (only, not owner-investors!) who have found that they now owe more money on their houses than they’re worth, tapered off as the mortgage goes above the waterline.
Dave
Love the tomb stones!
119- I recalled that being from her book “My Story”.
“…majority government would have empowered me to immediately and decisively deal with the insurgency and destabilization of Kevin Rudd and his group of agitators who called themselves ‘the cardinals’. I could have done what should have been done to those who showed so much disloyalty to the Labor Party.”
[Turnbull is doing worse with Abbott than Gillard did with Rudd.
At least Gillard had the excuse of a hung parliament, with very finely balanced numbers that could not stand even the loss of one vote in the House.]
And Abbott is doing his whiteanting in plain view for all to see and STILL Turnbull can’t shut him down!
We have one of the biggest Huntsmen spiders I’ve ever seen. It’s taken a pozzie in the corner of the ceiling, right above where we sit to watch telly.
It appears to be the diameter of a dinner plate.
My wife was wondering what crawled over her last night. At the time, she jumped up and asked me to check. “Nothing there, darling,” I said with the easy insouciance of someone who didn’t want to really know. I was wrong. Eeeeeew! It crawled over her…… sheesh.
We have a spider-catcher thingmy – a sort-of nylon brush contraption with a trigger that you can use to bunch the bristles up together when you get near the spider, catching it in the confusion. But last time I used it (last year) I broke one of the spider’s legs, and the magpies got him just as he’d almost dragged himself across the deck on the remaining seven. I don’t want to do that again, so it looks like the old bowl-with-a-piece-of-paper-slipped-under-it trick.
Only problem is it’s up quite high and I’ll be on my tippy-toes trying to reach it from the stepladder. In those situations you get one go at it, and one go only. They look like they’re asleep… but they’re not.
We had one that I knocked off the ceiling once. It hid along a skirting board, the top lips of it, about 1/2 an inch wide. Four legs east and four legs west. It made itself into a piece of brown fluff about 5 inches long. Did I forget to say they’re smart, too?
Then there was the other one that appeared to be dead. It had holed up in a bed-and-breakfast. They closed up the room for 2 weeks ad it had nothing to eat, plus it was extremely cold. It fell to the floor and just stayed there, flopsy-doodle like. I picked it up and put it outside, and it remained dead until next morning, when the rising sub warmed it up. Geez, it was quick.
And who hasn’t had one that was on the outside of the windscreen, and when you get out (in a hurry) is suddenly on the inside?
Fly spray doesn’t kill them, nor Baygon. They are true , strong, resilient and brave. Who wants to kill them anyway? They’re just doing what spiders do.
I simply wish it wasn’t right above where we watch the telly.
“so much disloyalty to the Labor Party”.
I don’t know about that. Most would say that the knifing of Kevin Rudd was the road to ruin for the Labor Party, or point to that treacherous act as the first step to political oblivion. Indeed, Kevin Rudd would have won the election, not by any great margin,perhaps.
prettyone @ 146
[ Indeed, Kevin Rudd would have won the election, not by any great margin,perhaps.]
We will never know, and retrospective speculation won’t make it so. No doubt, there are very few who were involved in dumping Rudd in 2010 who would do it again, given what happened subsequently. But that is with 20/20 hindsight.
We have seen how much of the pundit speculation over the last few years has been terribly wrong – just look at those who thought Turnbull was set to lead for years.
Seth@143
Well that would have been interesting.
But she is not saying just what she would have done.
Just self serving.
prettyone
I and a whole lot of others I know were dismayed by the Rudd knifing and Shorten was the master of the attack.
For mine Gillard was always tainted by being involved in it.
For mine Gillard was always tainted by being involved in it.
MTBW
Biggest regret of her life, I bet. Had she waited her turn, who knows what would have eventuated.