As the likelihood of a July 2 election firms, the preselection treadmill gathers pace. All the action this week is on the conservative side of the fence:
• New discord has emerged in the fractious New South Wales branch of the Liberal Party over its preselection for the Senate, after a party vote on Saturday delivered top position to Hollie Hughes, Moree-based autism support advocate and the state party’s country vice-president. This reduced the remaining incumbent, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, to number two, in defiance of the wishes of the Prime Minister, who had recently signalled his support by promoting her to the ministry. With number three reserved for Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, the result also meant neither of the Liberals’ winnable positions was available to Jim Molan, a former senior army officer who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals. Hughes has since forestalled a looming state executive intervention by agreeing to be relegated to number two. At issue was the presence on the preselection panel of two lobbyists and moderate factional operatives, Michael Photios and Nick Campbell, two years after Photios had been forced off the state executive by a Tony Abbott-sponsored rule forbidding the involvement of lobbyists. Opponents of the moderates cited in a report by David Crowe of The Australian claim that without the involvement of Photios and Campbell, Fierravanti-Wells and Molan might have taken the top two spots, with number three going to Andrew Bragg, policy director at the Financial Services Council. Tony Abbott described the outcome of the vote as “another exercise of stitching up”, which had been “tainted” by the involvement of Photios. If a double dissolution elections is called, the entire process will need to be revisited in a way that also accounts for Marise Payne, John Williams and Arthur Sinodinos, who were elected in 2013.
• Outgoing Human Rights Commissioner Tim Wilson has been preselected to succeed Andrew Robb as Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Goldstein. The Australian reports Wilson prevailed in the local party ballot over Denis Dragovic, a “lecturer, former hostage negotiator and columnist”, by the paper-thin margin of 142 votes to 140. Eliminated in the first round were Georgina Downer, with 66 votes, and Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive John Osborn, on 18 votes. The vote came shortly after a pamphlet was distributed to preselectors describing Wilson as “a danger to our families, schools and the local community”, owing to his “unrelenting campaign for gay rights issues”.
• The Daily Telegraph reports Bronwyn Bishop faces defeat in the Mackellar preselection at the hands of Jason Falinski, owner of aged care business Carewell Health. Falinski was Malcolm Turnbull’s Wentworth campaign manager in 2004, and has worked for John Hewson and Barry O’Farrell. While Falinski is strongly associated with the moderates faction, the Telegraph reports he “will get the support of much of the Right because of an anyone-but-Bronwyn attitude caused by her switching sides on Tony Abbott”.
• A further three challenges have emerged against federal Liberals in Western Australia, in addition to the widely reported contest between Tangney MP Dennis Jensen and the state party’s former director, Ben Morton. Liberal sources invoked by Andrew Burrell of The Australian suggest Nola Marino is under pressure from Ben Small, although all I can discern of Small is that he lives in Bunbury. Elsewhere, Swan MP Steve Irons faces Carl Pallier, state manager of Suncorp Insurance, and Durack MP Melissa Price is opposed by David Archibald, a geologist.
• Seven Liberal Party members have nominated for preselection in the new southern Perth seat of Burt. Andrew Burrell of The Australian suggests the front-runner is Matthew O’Sullivan, “who runs Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne philanthropic movement aimed at ending indigenous disparity”. However, Gosnells councillor Liz Storer is reported to be “backed by conservative forces”. Also in the field are Marisa Hislop, a small business owner; Daniel Nikolic, a company director; Lance Scott, the party’s divisional president; and a low-profile figure named Lesley Boyd.
• Sarah Martin of The Australian reports the Liberal Party has approached indigenous journalist Stan Grant about running for preselection against Labor’s Julie Owens in her highly marginal seat of Parramatta. The Liberals will be choosing their candidate for the seat through a trial plebiscite of local party members of more than two years’ standing, amid an ongoing brawl within the party over the power of head office in the party’s preselections.
• Melissa Grant of AAP reports on a second contestant for the Liberal National Party preselection to succeed Ian MacFarlane in the Queensland seat of Groom, joining the widely touted state member for Toowoomba South, John McVeigh. The candidate is Toowoomba general practitioner David van Gend, who describes himself on his Twitter bio as a “combatant on matters of life and death: euthanasia, cloning, abortion, gay ‘marriage’, faith and freedom” – his perspective on such matters being conservative.
Oh and Labor is getting $4.50
And Hilary is getting $1.40
And Labor is getting $1.85 in the WA election.. interesting..
Steve777 @ 894: A new party would start with no financial assets or public funding income from the previous election. There’s no obvious donor base for a hard line conservative party here, though that might come after a few elections if they showed themselves to be viable. Mainstream big business wouldn’t want to touch them.
Here, the breakaway parties which have succeeded at the federal level have all been ones which headed for the opposite side or the centre, rather than towards the outer fringes: the ALP factions led by Hughes and Lyons, the DLP, the Democrats, the Liberal Movement, the old Australia Party of Gordon Barton.
All this massive infrastructure investment that Turnbull appears to be readying himself to announce will be for the benefit of private consortia. The people might benefit from the infrastructure but the Liberal Party Mates will be the financial beneficiaries. Starting with having access to government guaranteed loans funded by those 30 Year Bonds. It’s better than a Public Private Partnership because they can’t go bust doing it as far as I can see.
Big on fizzle but not much bang.
All sizzle no sausage.
Also as I think Boerwar posted above re spivs, a big part of any plan will involve clever financial packaging, so money spent may not impact the budget but all of the upside is shared by merchant bankers and their investors.
I wonder how much money Lucy Turnbull will make out of any Malcolm Turnbull policies?
Thanks C@t you 904 is my post at 906 but written better.
pedant, 903
It would depend on how many Libs are feeling isolated by the leadership change. Especially if Abbott tags along with Bernardi (although I’m not sure he would), there’ll be a significant amount of disaffected voters going the Australian Conservatives’ way. Enough for a few Senate seats for sure, maybe even a House seat.
Pedant
We know there is already about 2.5% of a vote for assorted family values parties. I would think that a Bernadi led split might attract an additional 2.5% or a bit more. If the nationals joined them you might be looking at a party with a national vote of 8-10%. In addition there is another 4% in RW “nationalist parties” of various kinds. These overlap with Bernadi’s mob but are more progressive on some social issues.
BK@893
When I first saw a game I concluded it did not have rules and relied on arbitrary decisions. So I am not surprised.
William
Time to increase your insurance premiums.
Cat – you are dangerously close to getting William sued for libel.
pedant
It does seem as if the Bernadi party is becoming a real possibility.
I guess the interesting questions are:
1. who would join it?
2. Would they do so before or after the election ie would they get elected as Liberal then defect?
3. Would they form a coalition with the Nationals?
[Don’t you realise that these people are total rat bags and zealots?]
They are undoubtedly ratbags and zealots, but they’re ratbags and zealots who skive off the taxpayer when it comes to holding down a day job.
dtt, 910 & 913
I doubt that the Fiona Nash and Darren Chester type would align with a Bernardi type. Too levelheaded in my opinion, particularly Chester.
A party of the economic hard right would have available to it rivers of gold from a large segment if Big Business, esoecially if the ‘Liberals’ were to falter. And whike Big Business doesn’t greatly care about social issues, social conservatism, as opponents of anything that snacks of ‘Socialism’, can help bring the punters onside. Something like Australian Conservatives might find some big sponsors.
Airlines
I have trouble identifying many in whose interest it would be to join such a party.
Bernadi yes and oddly enough Joe Bullock. I cannot see HoR members rushing to join. However in a DD election they would probably get 1 per state:
Bernadi SA
Bullock WA??????
Lochnane Victoria
Credlin NSW
Abetz Tas
Plenty to choose from in Qld.
Confessions @896
If there is a double dissolution, Bernardi if re elected would have a guaranteed six year Senate term locked down anyway; so that would make him pretty comfortable for a while assuming he was to defect to his new party early in the term.
daretotread,
A question is not an assertion, nor a statement of fact.
Also, I don’t understand why it is okay for all and sundry to question Kevin Rudd’s motives about his wife but if you ask a similar question about another prominent Prime Ministerial spouse then the Thought Police rain down upon you?
daretotread@917
Why do you defame Joe Bullock like that?
You may not agree with some of his political positions, but he has shown himself to be a loyal ALP person by the manner of his departure from the Senate.
Read your 912 and reflect.
Cat
I said dangerously close not over the edge.
Well it was not OK to dump on Rudd’s wife.
The issue is that you had a possible implication of corruption on the part of Malcolm and Lucy. Just be a little careful about what you say.
I certainly know to be careful. If it is already out in the public arean themn it is safer ground – eg Sinodinos.
Bemused
I am not defaming Bullock. I agree he did the right thing by the ALP in the manner of his resignation.
However he is a man with a set of personal principles that in most ways seem closer to Bernadi than to say Louise Pratt.
If he chose to stand for a Bernadi Party he would NOT be doing the ALP any harm at all so he would not have a guilty concience about this. He would be taking votes from the Liberal party.
I might add that I respect people who stand for their principles, even if they are not principles with which I agree.
[Bullock WA??????
Lochnane Victoria
Credlin NSW]
None of these are realistic options under the scenario you paint.
confessions@923
I agree.
Bemused
It really depends upon just how advanced and thought out the Australian Conservative Party really is and whether it is to be formed by party members or via a Liberal party breakaway.
Perhaps the Safe Schools petition was a bit of a challenge to Turnbull ” hey matey, do as we ask or we just might go the Nuclear option and split the party.” Perhaps they were looking for an excuse to breakaway.
So the thing is IF Bernadi split (and obviously he is thinking of it, given his wife has registered logos for a political party) the question is how many would split with him. Given he is now out in the cold, Brian Loughnane may well be looking for another job (or a spot in parliament) so joining Bernadi might be his best chance. Ditto Credlin.
Bemused
Think seriously about it:
1. We know Bernadi is contemplating a split
2. Given 1, Bernadi would want high profile candidates in every State. A former director of the LNP would be a pretty good choice. credlin I agree would be a risky choice
Imagine, for one moment, if a prominent ALP Senator went off and registered a new political party, let’s call it the Marxist People’s Liberation Front.
One would have thought there would have been a pique of interest from the MSM on the perceived unity and leadership of the ALP.
But no, its just Cory. Move on. No story here.
A bit obtuse, I know, but I like obtuse….
To be fair, nobody actually cares all that much about Cory Bernardi apart from to occasionally collectively groan about his still being in parliament. I’d say someone like (say) Doug Cameron would be treated in much the same way.
Rossmore@927
An implicit acknowledgement that he is nuts.
Bemused …. clearly he is nuts, but one expects the MSM would be a bit more willing to call his behaviour out as yet another example of this dysfunctional and divided government.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/03/2016-federal-election-seats-model-what.html
2016 Federal Election Seats Model: What 2PP Vote Does Labor Need To Win?
Go to bed Dr Kevin. It’s late.
[ For a start I’d like to see the ABCC bill used as an excuse to raise the issue of corruption. I don’t know if Labor can get enough cross bench support to actually pass such amendments. ]
Love to see it. And really, if such amendments were passed by the Senate, rejected by the HoR, it could be passed back to the Senate for another go. I dont think the Govt HAS to use it as a DD trigger even if it qualifies as one.
[ I absolutely definitely think that Labor should reintroduce the SSM bill. After all, Turnbull has given them 3 whole weeks. There’s time to send that down to the reps. Again, the more this issue gets in the press the more it takes oxygen out of Turnbull’s campaign and the more that Labor can mention waste. ]
Absolutely. 🙂 FFS, they have 3 weeks to fill in.
[ I’m not sure that delaying supply a bit is a good move. It may be seen as clever by some, but its risky all the same. ]
I think the ALP is actually on sure ground here. They wont block supply but they have a responsibility to scrutinize the bill carefully. If the budget comes down on the 3rd it gets to the senate 4-5th?? IF the Libs wrap ANYTHING controversial in ANY way into the supply bill that needs to pass for a DD then the ALP/Greens/Xbenchers should throw it back to the HoR after a day or two of debate. 🙂 They could take it right to the wire. 🙂
Of course if it is non controversial, pass it on the 9th / 10th. Above all, be reasonable and make Mal sweat over other issues in the meantime. 🙂 Keep the pressure on and this guy will Fwark up.
[ The people might benefit from the infrastructure but the Liberal Party Mates will be the financial beneficiaries. Starting with having access to government guaranteed loans funded by those 30 Year Bonds. It’s better than a Public Private Partnership because they can’t go bust doing it as far as I can see. ]
I very much hope that the ALP have been developing a response to this scenario. Its been pretty well telegraphed i think and it can be linked with their position on the ABCC bill.
What C@t has suggested could happen would amount to a massive govt guaranteed stimulus package, but aimed at BIG business, rather than house-holds, tradies and small business like the GFC stim pac.
ratsak@933
I’m actually trying to stay up late tonight solely for the reason of being able to do so the next few nights so I can watch the last two rounds of the chess Candidates Tournament. Twice so far I have tried to stay up and got too sleepy and had to go to bed even when I didn’t have work the next day!
Chess candidates tournament? The diversity of PB is what I love about it.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Sam Maiden says Abbott has nothing to lose and will be a pain that won’t go away for Turnbull. (It’s a Google job).
/news/opinion/tony-abbott-the-man-with-nothing-to-lose-is-a-pain-that-wont-go-away-for-malcolm-turnbull/news-story/309fef21ab9c2cf5fecbc286f3f59c87
Enjoy your porridge, a***hole!
http://www.smh.com.au/queensland/queensland-tradie-has-596m-in-bank-court-told-20160326-gnrh0h.html
The Catholic Church’s keeping abuse files secret is unconscionable (though unsurprising). The government should suspend all favourable tax treatments and find other ways to “encourage” them to come clean. Hopefully His Honour will follow through,
http://www.smh.com.au/national/secret-archive-of-paedophile-crime-kept-by-catholic-churchs-insurers-20160317-gnlc6k.html
It’s time to crack down on debt vultures.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-urges-malcolm-turnbull-to-crack-down-on-debt-management-firms-20160325-gnr7m8.html
Now Mike Baird will up the ante on terrorism legislation.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-premier-mike-baird-prepares-new-terror-laws-20160326-gnrhy2.html
If ever you had any doubts about Trump’s suitability to be President this will dispel them.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-talks-and-talks-and-beneath-the-verbal-deluge-themes-emerge-20160325-gnreo1.html
It’s getting worse by the day for Arfur.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/arthur-sinodinos-included-on-slush-fund-email-trail-20160326-gnrist.html
Will the Libs actually spill the beans on their illegal donors? Or will they take their $4m lumps?
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/will-the-libs-spill-the-beans-on-their-illegal-donors1,8816
Now Potato Head thinks he’s Daryl F Zanuck!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/taxpayers-charged-6-million-for-immigration-department-telemovie-20160325-gnqyr4.html
This is a good article on what goes in to building submarines and the technologies involved.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/french-german-and-japanese-submarine-makers-vie-to-impress-australia-in-underwater-arms-race-20160324-gnqjwv.html
Peter Wicks on Kathy Jackson’s right hand man.
http://wixxyleaks.com/lose-your-delusion-ii-kathy-jacksons-right-hand-man-getting-desperate/
Section 2 . . . with Cartoon Corner
This Easter churches will be prating for a rebirth.
https://theconversation.com/this-easter-churches-will-be-praying-for-a-rebirth-56591
More on that subject.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/mark-mccrindle/the-older-you-are-the-more-chance-you-believe-in-god_b_9536650.html?utm_hp_ref=australia
Peter FitzSimons says a sugar tax is a form of pre-paid health insurance.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-fitz-files-sugar-tax-a-form-of-prepaid-health-insurance-20160325-gnqydg.html
Is it time to give Modern Monetary Theory a run?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/radical-economic-ideas-grab-attention-amid-lowinflation-torpor-20160324-gnqhsr.html
And here comes Kate Carnell. I can’t wait!
http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/managing/not-just-yes-minister-for-the-small-business-ombudsman-20160321-gnnilo.html
Charles Waterstreet has had more than enough of Telstra and Foxtel.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/waterstreet-life-pay-up-or-lose-your-links-to-the-outside-world-20160324-gnqvm0.html
Ron Tandberg and a Canberra double act.
Andrew Dyson and Liberal Party optics.
Mark Knight wonders what this world has come to!
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9687aa13b9e712c43864e7b68d20b8af?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/bitter-battle-chocolate-makers-fighting-to-save-the-worlds-cocoa-supply-20160323-gnpfg4.html
[In Cote dâIvoire in cocoa-rich West Africa, the Nestle Cocoa Plan is assisting communities faced with poor cocoa yields, while grappling with child labour. Journalist Esther Han travelled to Cote d’Ivoire as a guest of Nestle.]
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/appleby-terror-cell-a-tough-nut-to-crack-says-top-cop-20160324-gnqm8a.html
[Despite the death of the group’s figurehead, former Kings Cross bouncer Mohammad Baryalei, and incarceration of key members, others have floated in and out of the group and continue to do so, Mr Phelan said. Some continue to have an influence from prison.
“It would be way too premature to say the group is done,” he said. “We’re vigilant about people who might want to pick up the slack. That’s just the natural consequence of terrorism investigations. They never close.”
Police began monitoring the Appleby group in early 2014, when certain names started popping up frequently following the arrest of Hamdi Alqudsi, who allegedly recruited men to fight in Syria.]
A brilliant “New Rules” from Bill Maher.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZRYfMa1wEk
Thanking you BK and lizzie for our morning mental degustation. 🙂
Couldn’t help but think of Uncle Arfur.
[With corruption, politicians face minor temptations and big ones. A pollie who is “too clean” may be avoiding minor misdeeds so he can survive long enough to engage in major graft when the opportunity arises, whereas another planning to avoid graft may not worry about small misdemeanours.
The guilty may deny accusations more strenuously than the innocent do because the innocent know they’ll have less trouble proving it later.
As Shakespeare said, “the lady doth protest too much, methinks”.
But if you want more proof than a quote from the bard, read the paper on his website. Hope your maths is up to it.]
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/what-would-you-pay-for-prestige-20160324-gnq6qu.html
At last the police are taking ‘domestics’ as seriously as any other crime.
[Police have Victoria’s worst domestic abusers in their sights after uncovering a hard core of vicious serial criminals with more than 10 victims each.
Detectives from the newly established Family Violence Taskforce are following this trail of tears to link historical murders, rapes, and serious assaults dating back decades.
The taskforce was formed in response to the disturbing number of offenders who have abused multiple partners. Since 2005, more than 15,000 people have been charged with crimes relating to three or more different victims. Inspector Mark Zervaas, head of the taskforce, said 3500 of these offenders had more than four victims, and 20 had been charged in relation to more than 10 victims.
Now police are looking for other men who might have got away with similar serial offending.
“We are looking at the high risk and extreme offenders that are moving through different relationships and many of those victims are not reporting it to police,” Inspector Zervaas said.
Detectives have found that the worst family violence offenders are often predatory, selecting vulnerable women with troubled backgrounds as victims, taskforce Detective Senior Sergeant Anthony Mercer said.]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/family-violence-trunk-20160323-gnpiu9.html
That story of the QLD “tradie” with $596m in his account and 1.2 or is that 12b in assets is just bizarre.
If true (and I very much doubt it) there is no way he could have accumulated that much legitimately.
I’m reading on Twitter that the Coalition has shelved the plebiscite on equal marriage, but haven’t seen the original source. Does anyone have a link, please?
Morning all.
[FORMER prime minister Tony Abbott will launch his own DIY national election tour, campaigning in marginal seats across Australia, after the Liberal Party failed to organise him a formal role.
Mr Abbott is already fielding requests to deploy to NSW, Queensland, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory with some MPs grumbling Malcolm Turnbull isn’t spending enough time helping marginal seat MPs with fundraising.
The Prime Minister’s Office and Liberal Party director Tony Nutt have not been in touch with Mr Abbott to organise a formal role in the looming campaign.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/tony-abbott-to-hit-the-road-to-campaign-on-national-tour-in-marginal-seats/news-story/f6fda199a99bb2b7ca7337f202080ec3
Fess 948 The man is delusional. How can he possibly think he is a positive on the campaign trail? All the more power to you Tone. Keep up the good work.
lizzie
There’s a Denis Shanahan article at the GG saying the Libs have shelved planning for the plebiscite until after the election.