ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A poll conducted immediately after yesterday’s election timing announcement from the Prime Minister shows the Coalition retaining a modest lead, while an earlier poll from Essential Research has the parties still locked together at 50-50.

This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.

Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.

Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

982 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  3. Sunday was a great day for me. My family had been guests at Alan Jones’s magnificent property at Sutton Forest in the NSW Southern Highlands for the weekend, when we drove to another fabulous home outside Robertson for a sumptuous lunch. The lunch was followed by a performance by Greta Bradman, whose name will be right up there with Dame Joan Sutherland. There was, however, another performance that was memorable. Barnaby Joyce was also a guest. He had obviously read my past two columns and, without any detail on how it would be done, assured me there would be ample time for debate on the Australian Building and Construction Commission.

    The Deputy Prime Minister had been taken into the Prime Minister’s confidence but not the Treasurer. I must admit, though, that Barnaby’s wink and a nod did not prepare me for yesterday’s extraordinary announcement. An elaborate and extensive trick has been played on the electorate. The government’s complete failure to manage its legislative program has been rewarded by the Governor-General’s intervention.

    Both houses of parliament will be brought back at huge expense for extra sittings to provide a viable trigger for a double dissolution that would give the government its best chance of electoral victory. A mechanism used four times in the past 55 years has been called into play.

    Its legality is not in question but that does not mean there are no problems.

    For a start, it would appear the public will have to swallow not only the fact that one of the two refusal to debate/rejections will have been created by the government voting not to bring on its own legislation, but also the farcical nature of the Governor-General’s proposition i.e. the parliament is officially “prorogued”, or finished off on one day and called back a couple of days later. The decision on March 11 to vote against bringing on debate on the ABCC looked stupid at the time but that stupidity pales mightily in comparison to using its own rejection as grounds for a double dissolution. The Governor-General will be forced to set a precedent on grounds the public will view with suspicion.

    There is a huge gulf between what the High Court might declare as legal and what passes the smell test. There is such a stench around this, which can only grow. My political mantra since my youth has been that “the mob will always work you out”. Malcolm Turnbull must be of the belief Australia is looking in another direction. This cynical use of power will drag the PM’s numbers down even further.

    The PM has also brought forward the budget without notifying the Treasurer; Scott Morrison is becoming the PM’s fall guy. If it goes badly, it is the Treasurer’s fault. To have Morrison telling Ray Hadley’s radio audience that the budget would go ahead as scheduled at the very time the cabinet was involved in a phone hook-up to bring it forward was as calculated an insult as I could contemplate. Following on from taking “off the table” the option for an increase in the GST and reform of negative gearing, which Morrison had been sent out to champion, it is clear that anyone around them, even the Treasurer, can be thrown under the bus on a whim and without thought.

    Then there is the longest campaign in Australian history. By law, there must be at least 33 days between the issuing of the writs and election day. This campaign will effectively be at least 70 days — that’s an awful lot of space to fill for a PM without policy. You can’t be negative all the time. He can bucket the unions for about two weeks at the most. At some point you have to advertise your wares. Australians will expect to hear about the tax relief this government has long promised them.

    Not only will there be little on offer for tax cuts, the government needs people to pay more tax. The only thing to balance a pretty poor set of numbers is bracket creep. Those hundreds of thousands about to enter the 39c tax bracket are the sacrificial lambs to be carved up on the altar of government survival. To quote Turnbull, in reference to a previous prime minister, “this is all about the job security of one man and one man only”.

  5. Turnbull doesn’t trust Morrison because Morrison is likely to be the next Prime Minister or leader of the Liberal Party.
    Morrison has the support of evangelical Christians who are moving into prominent positions in our society much like the catholic cohort pushed out the protestant ascendancy 5 to 10 years ago

  6. GG

    If Pyne and Cash are part of the inner circle, chalk up another huge misjudgement. Any reliance on those two and The Waffler is stuffed. Dead meat walking.

    Is he really that stupid????

  7. Thanks victoria, glad to see my memory is still working, at the time I posted I couldn’t recall if I read it online, or from a paper copy

  9. Dio
    [Is Brussels really the European city with the largest number of Muslim citizens? The claim is 300,000.]
    No it would surely be Paris. Brussels has a high % of Muslim people. Even then it is not the highest. Sarajevo is still a city in Europe, and is majority muslim, despite Serbian attempts at genocide…. Between that and Palestine and people still wonder why they got cross?

  10. [dmaguz: #breaking Charges against CFMEU Qld organiser Justin Steele dropped. Fifth failed #turc charge.]

    Deyson Heydon and credibility – separated at birth

  14. [Trade Union v Business on now.]

    The business line is that bringing back the ABCC will see construction costs drop 30% as militant unions will not be able to be so aggressive in pushing for wage increases, though no support was given for this figure.

    There are many studies on the net that put the labour component of total construction costs at around 20-25%.

    One study estimated that the EBA bargaining by the CRMEU had seen wages rise some 12% above average wage increases.

    The study estimated that this added around 3.0% to total construction costs (ie 12% of 25% labour costs).

    This seems to be where the 30% figure touted by business comes from, it just appears to be that they left off the decimal point which can be a simple error to make.

  15. [dmaguz: #breaking Charges against CFMEU Qld organiser Justin Steele dropped. Fifth failed #turc charge.]
    Not exactly the Fitzgerald inquiry was it? I wonder how the cases against employers are faring?

  16. As per Richo’s piece above

    [There is a huge gulf between what the High Court might declare as legal and what passes the smell test. There is such a stench around this, which can only grow. My political mantra since my youth has been that “the mob will always work you out”. Malcolm Turnbull must be of the belief Australia is looking in another direction. This cynical use of power will drag the PM’s numbers down even further.]

  17. The biggest problem in construction isn’t unions getting pay raises for their members, it is poor quality construction.

    Yet the libs are entirely focused on driving wages down rather than addressing the real issues.

    Disputes are rife within the Victorian domestic building industry, with 28 per cent of people who engage tradespeople to help them build or renovate their home experiencing problems.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/one-in-four-home-builds-dodgy-auditorgeneral-report-on-consumer-protection-in-the-building-industry-20150528-ghbd3b.html#ixzz43gwcWMgt

    THE most comprehensive study ever of strata properties has found 85 per cent of new apartments in NSW are plagued by defects. The results of the two-year, federally-funded University of NSW study reveal major problems with compliance and management of multi-unit dwellings, which accounted for 75 per cent of properties built in Sydney in the five years to 2009.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/most-new-stratatitle-properties-have-defects-20120520-1yz12.html#ixzz43gwmzwda

    The decision last week by Syd Fisher to put the development company behind the troubled Gazebo apartment block into liquidation has exposed one of the major problems many apartment owners face trying to get developers to make good on defective buildings.

    http://www.flat-chat.com.au/owners-left-high-and-dry-on-building-defects/

    Warning alerts were raised about one in three Canberra building companies searched for on a national builders’ quality website.

    The findings – picking up history including building defects, questionable company associations and those trading in a high-risk financial position – have reinforced concerns about the standards of the building industry.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/one-in-three-canberra-building-companies-raise-flags-20150812-gixesp.html#ixzz43gxB0RFt

  18. tho i don’t think that labour should focus on the ABCC as an issue, that is an old howard ploy to try and make an election on a single issue ala gst, tampa and mad mark.

    it takes focus off the other more important issues.

  19. It seems to be rather strange that a former High Court judge in Dyson Heydon seems to think that there is sufficient evidence to refer matters from the Royal Witchunt to the appropriate authorities but that these lowly Magistrates and DPP types keep finding that there is insufficient evidence that a jury or court might convict and these cases don’t even get to first base.

    The cynics amongst us would probably conclude that this TURC was waste of time and money and its motives were purely political.

  20. I should have added at my post above, that Dave Noonan said at NPC today that Turnbull had lied to the GG re reason for recalling parliament

  21. Labor would do well to watch this story, which is guaranteed to contain backflips as we discover Brisbane Mayor Quirke’s promised Metro is impossible to deliver as he promised.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/video/video-news/video-qld-news/metro-rail-doesnt-stack-up-20160322-4ccna.html

    Quirke claimed the cost would match the cost of one of the smallest, cheapest metro systems built in France (Lille) while the capacity would match the hugely expensive one in Paris. Good luck with that business case, Graham. Have a good day all.

  22. [ victoria

    Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

    Sunday was a great day for me. My family had been guests at Alan Jones’s magnificent property at Sutton Forest in the NSW Southern Highlands for the weekend, when we drove to another fabulous home outside Robertson for a sumptuous lunch

    ]

    Phewwwww …. thanks for clarifying it was from Richo’s piece, Victoria

    I thought for a minute that they had bought YOU off with a big feed 😉

  23. FalconWA – Dyson would have left most of that stuff to his staff, who’ve shown they’re total dead-heads. What is most interesting about the RC is the dog that didn’t bark. Dyson must have known his job was to nail bill shorten. But, at the end, he thought about the firestorm that would erupt and chose to protect his reputation. I must say, I predicted that. The Libs must be SO pissed with him.

  24. psychlaw,

    Cash would have been involved because she has to present the Government’s case as the IR Minister. Given the parliament was being recalled because of the ABCC legislation, it would be prudent to involve the responsible Minister.

    Pyne was one of his coup lieutenants and is Leader of HOR and runs their tactics.

    This meme that the Coalition are all fools and knaves really is lazy thinking. The Libs are still in the box seat to be re-elected. If you think this is sheer luck or because the media fix is in or (pick your own conspiracy theory) then you are venting and not thinking, comrade.

    I’m rusted on Labor. But, I don’t think that means every Liberal is a fool.

  27. GG

    Turnbull thinks he is too clever by half. I kinda get the feeling that there is every chance that this House of Cards may indeed fall

  28. Richo’s column posted by victoria is quite different to the rest of the msm.
    How long will it take before they instinctively stop praising every thing Turnbull does.
    The reason why I thought a DD was off the table was because due to timing a long campaign was required, Turnbull’s only hope was a quick minimum length sprint to the polls, even that is 7 weeks.

  32. And of course there is the article in The Age today re. dodgy cladding on the docklands (and many other ) buildings. The developers have not adhered to the Australian fire resistant regulations for such cladding but want the courts to rule that they have no responsibility and should suffer no penalty. Pity they are not a union, then they would not have a chance with that agrument. But as they are developers they will likely get off scott free.

  34. vic,

    Re Turnbull:

    Maybe. But, regardless, hubris, arrogance and confidence in his own talents is probably what got him where he is today.

    Until the whole process plays out you can’t say whether he has been successful or not.

    I know there are plenty of early crows on PB and elsewhere about how bad everything is for Turnbull. But, I’m not convinced.

  36. [ victoria

    Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

    Apologies. Above post is Richo’s piece in the Oz yesterday

    ]

    What a turncoat that Graham Richardson turned into …… from a Labour stalwart to supping with the Devil and his gang of vipers

  38. Bemused @ 414

    Agree but the action is in the senate and Labor needs to keep grabs of Penny Wong away from the TV nightly news at all costs.

  39. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 2:25 pm | PERMALINK
    K17

    I would be a pretty hopeless mole. I actually use my real name on this blog!!]

    And a classy name it is too.

  40. phoenixRED

    [What a turncoat that Graham Richardson turned into …… from a Labour stalwart to supping with the Devil and his gang of vipers]

    Richardson is a very hard man of the ALP what on earth is he doing at Alan Jones’ place. He has changed a lot from my days at the ALP conferences. He thinks his shite doesn’t stink.

  43. [ MTBW

    Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

    phoenixRED

    What a turncoat that Graham Richardson turned into …… from a Labour stalwart to supping with the Devil and his gang of vipers

    Richardson is a very hard man of the ALP what on earth is he doing at Alan Jones’ place. He has changed a lot from my days at the ALP conferences. He thinks his shite doesn’t stink.

    ]

    I used to always listen to him when he was on panels on election nights and he was always at the front of predicting the outcome of the election …..but he turned into a real Judas in my eyes ….. and being on Rupert’s payroll – well, like the old saying – if you lie down with dogs , you wake up with fleas …..

  44. taylormade

    [ Agree but the action is in the senate and Labor needs to keep grabs of Penny Wong away from the TV nightly news at all costs. ]

    Ok, I’ll bite – why?

  45. GG #574

    I call BS on that.

    For whatever reason, if Pyne and Cash are in Truffles’ top 5 confidants, he is a total fool ….. 100 fold more foolish than anyone ever thought.

    As to your rationalisation about why Cash would be there, why would the few hours extra notice she’d have gotten over Morrison be critical when the recall date was 4 weeks hence.

    You’re just makin up tosh.

  46. phoenixRED

    Richardson was the hard man of the Right in the Labor Party but now being a commentator he can freelance in what he does and get paid for it.

    He actually makes my stomach turn.

  47. When Richardson emerged from politics he had one, and only one, asset to sell: his reputation as a major Labor figure. The Right Wing will pay good money for a captive Labor figure. So Richardson sold his reputation to the highest bidder.

  48. “Continuity with change” is so obviously an imaginary discursive solution to the LNPs very real internal ructions, Im a little staggered they were dumb enough to trot it out in public.

  49. [ MTBW

    Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    phoenixRED

    Richardson was the hard man of the Right in the Labor Party but now being a commentator he can freelance in what he does and get paid for it.

    He actually makes my stomach turn.

    ]

    For Me – Simple Definition of traitor :

    : a person who betrays a country or group of people by helping or supporting an enemy

    He might have his 30 pieces of silver from Rupert …. but it can’t buy back whatever good reputation he may have had from us Labour folk …

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