This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.
Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.
Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.
MTBW
[Poor dears!]
I had a boss in the early 90’s who couldn’t resist booking these when we traveled for work even after we were told only to use them as a last resort.
He used to describe a ‘C’ plated car as “a big white symbol of the C’wlth”.
😀
Toorak Toff @407
[With interest rates so low, this truly is the best time to borrow and build for the future.
Turnbull surprised Abbott. He may well surprise us all.]
This comment implies a common misconception that the Commonwealth is a price-taker for its securities. In fact (in all but extreme circumstances) it is a price-setter, for reasons that should be obvious, but apparently are not.
If Malcolm were to be agent eradicating this ridiculous misconception then he would have performed a worthwhile service.
CTar1
My late grandfather was a Federal politician and he would catch a cab to the airport and when my mother had a car she drove him.
@595 – unfortunately except for Sinodinos there are very few others he could reasonably expect to choose from to be his ‘inner’ cabinet or advisory group. Those mentioned are the best he can get under the circumstances. Maybe Marise Payne could have been added.
booleanbach
Defence and Foreign Affairs Ministers are traditionally always out of the ‘loop’.
don
[Ignorant pompous bastard. May you rot slowly and painfully from the arsehole out.
I am here to tell you that it went to a generic subscribe now page. I don’t care whether you believe me or not.]
😮
You know, if you’re that desperate to read the Australian, you could always pay for a subscription.
Not that I would ever advocate reading the Australian, but clearly this an issue dear to your heart.
Prelim results in Utah are showing Trump losing big time – coming a distant third. The jolly folk over at 538 are suggesting the Mormons really really dont like Trump.
Could Utah turn blue in a presidential election if Trump is the nominee?
Our Prime Minister truly is, a great man:
JOURNALIST:
Prime Minister, can I also ask about Cory Bernardi who is your Government colleague. He is personally emailing people on Safe Schools and attacking their views. Do you think that’s appropriate?
PRIME MINISTER:
I’m not on his email list so I can’t comment on that.
So, thank you all very much indeed.
[Socrates
Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 1:59 pm | Permalink
Dio
Is Brussels really the European city with the largest number of Muslim citizens? The claim is 300,000.
No it would surely be Paris. Brussels has a high % of Muslim people. Even then it is not the highest. Sarajevo is still a city in Europe, and is majority muslim, despite Serbian attempts at genocide…. Between that and Palestine and people still wonder why they got cross?]
Paris proper has few muslims. The suburbs (banlieux) which are not Paris, have squillions of muslims.
Marseille, as CTAR1 observes, has very high numbers of muslims.
IMO, the European city with the highest number of muslims would surely be Istanbul. Heh heh.
Meher Baba @492
[Peg@482: I too like the idea of replacing stamp duty with a land tax.
But how will it work for real estate investors? They currently pay both stamp duty and a land tax. Will they be required to pay a higher rate of land tax than home owners? Or will they get a windfall out of this (perhaps not a bad idea if neg gearing is abolished).
All manageable, I’m sure, but these things always require a lot more detailed policy work than journos and spruikers like the McKell Institute seem to understand.]
Owner occupiers will have the option to defer part of their land tax debt to their estate (or the point at which the property is sold) thereby limiting their immediate land tax liability.
Non-occupiers (e.g “investors”) will not have this deferment option.
Note that the deferment scheme is currently in (limited) operation in South Australia.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-23/high-court-directions-hearing-to-challenge-new-laws-bob-day/7270932
[The High Court will tomorrow hold a directions hearing on a challenge to new Senate voting laws]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/03/22/cory-bernardi-email-safe-schools_n_9526964.html
Cory says it’s all a con
Simon Kasich #606
[Could Utah turn blue in a presidential election if Drumpf is the nominee?]
The people over at 538 recently asked this question themselves, and the short answer is while early polls like this are notoriously unpredictable; Utah in particular is dominated by Mormons, who are in many ways the diametric opposite to Trump. So if Mormons were to shift political allegiances as a single entity, then yes, it’s possible.
GG @510
[sceptic,
The only people secure under the Belgian model are the security forces themselves.]
I think it’s in Belgium where a member (ahem) of the terrorism response squad is being prosecuted after being caught having a quickie (or not so quickie) when supposed to be participating in a raid post the Paris attacks…
John Reidy@591
Richo is a very sick man and may not be with us much longer.
I don’t really object to him enjoying life while he can however he can.
Booleanbach
Have I misread you or are you really saying Pyne and Cash are the best Truffles has??????
Despite what GG says, I am not a “lazy” Labor supporter who thinks all Libs are knaves and unintelligent.
But Pyne and Cash would not make the top 10 of ministers to be one of a very small handful of confidants, in my book.
In Truffles’ shoes, Sinodinis would be my first pick. (I suppose JBishop was in the know about the Budget date change early in the piece, by virtue of being deputy, not by virtue of trustworthiness or competence).
Whilst I don’t particularly admire any particular one of these, they would all seem to be more reliable, stable and competent than Pyne and Cash ……. nor have I any evidence to think they are dumb or knaves (GG !!!!)
(not in any order): Payne, Porter, Keenan, O’Dwyer, Fifield, Ley, Ciobo, Laundy, Wyatt, Birmingham.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/23/adani-fails-to-force-activists-to-pay-1m-costs-for-carmichael-challenge
[Adani has failed in an attempt to make conservationists pay legal costs estimated at more than $1m from a court challenge against its Carmichael coal project.
The ruling by Queensland land court president Carmel MacDonald against a costs application by the Indian mining group is likely to stiffen the resolve of landholders and environmental groups who feared being lumbered with prohibitive legal bills after challenging other mining projects.]
[victoria
Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 11:34 am | PERMALINK
Margo Kingston retweeted
RenewEconomy
2h2 hours ago
RenewEconomy @renew_economy
Before you all get excited about Turnbull’s new clean energy fund, read this: It’s nothing but sleight of hand http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/turnbulls ]
This is a case where Turnbull’s use of ‘continuity and change’ is actually very appropriate. He is continuing Abbott’s hard line approach to strangle efforts to confront climate change. However he has changed the presentation with his pea and thimble trick announced today.
I found a wiki article on the % Muslim population in EU cities.
Brussels is between 15%-25% depending on study.
As has been mentioned, Marseille is up there at 25% but Bradford and Blackburn are about 30%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_the_European_Union_by_Muslim_population
I imagine no Australian city would reach 5%.
[
psyclaw
Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 3:42 pm | Permalink
Booleanbach
Have I misread you or are you really saying Pyne and Cash are the best Truffles has??????
(not in any order): Payne, Porter, Keenan, O’Dwyer, Fifield, Ley, Ciobo, Laundy, Wyatt, Birmingham.
]
I MUCH prefer THIS line-Up and think they are VASTLY superior :
Burke, Dreyfus, Bowen, Pilbersek, Albanese, Ellis ….
[Is Brussels really the European city with the largest number of Muslim citizens? The claim is 300,000. ]
Some big numbers –
[ According to the Pew Forum, the total number of Muslims in Europe in 2010 was about 44 million (6%).
The total number of Muslims in the European Union in 2010 was about 19 million (3.8%).
The French capital of Paris and its metropolitan area has the largest number (up to 1.7 million according to The Economist) of Muslims out of any city in the European Union.
London also has a substantial community of Muslim origin, numbering about 1 million within the limits of Greater London and exceeding this figure when the entire metropolitan area is taken into account.
If the current rate of migration of Muslims to Europe and the Muslim fertility rate remains constant, by 2030, people of Muslim faith or origin are predicted to form about 10% of the French population and 8% of the European population. ]
By percentage, in EU –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_the_European_Union_by_Muslim_population
Kev17 @ 608
Neatly summarizes why Mal can’t win.
Stands up to RWNJs and he loses leadership.
Not standing up to RWNJs he loses all those who believe in the mythical Mal
Diogenes @619
Additionally, immigration into Australia has been managed to reduce the creation of ghettos, whilst in France and (presumably) Belgium the management has been completely incompetent.
The NSW electoral commission withholding funds from the Libs is a little bit of poetic justice IMHO.
They’ve dissed ICAC’s findings, but the EC hasn’t.
Money speaks at elections. What with the Vic’s ‘misplacing’ all that dosh and now NSW down a few $mil … I’m thinking the tables have turned somewhat
Darn
[Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 2:52 pm | PERMALINK
victoria
Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 2:25 pm | PERMALINK
K17
I would be a pretty hopeless mole. I actually use my real name on this blog!!]
And a classy name it is too.
Why thank you so kindly. 🙂
Bemused
[Richo is a very sick man and may not be with us much longer.]
I was just thinking the same.
Perhaps he is thinking he can save a little bit of his reputation by doing some straightforward analysis while he still can. He has written a couple of articles like this recently.
Whatever you think of Richo as a person, and I don’t hold him any regard at all, his political sense is second to none.
jenauthor
Could you elaborate on what has transpired with the electoral commission?o
AJM – Maybe, in extremis, Richo has found his way back to the ALP? That’s his version of an epiphany
ajm
Agree that Richo has political nous
This Vic:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-liberals-down-4-million-over-hundreds-of-thousands-in-donations-cloud-20160322-gnokw0.html
Aisha Dow @aishamae 3m3 minutes ago
This just in – the building surveyor involved in flammable Lacrosse tower has been referred for disciplinary action. Story on @theage soon
ajm
[Whatever you think of Richo as a person, and I don’t hold him any regard at all, his political sense is second to none.]
Would agree with that!
Mr Nice Guy and Mr Nasty?
[Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison are struggling to decide a $1 billion health deal that will be central to a July 2 election campaign in another sign of their personal tensions, as Labor exploits the divisions to warn of “dysfunction” at the top of the government.
The Prime Minister and Treasurer are at odds over spending plans that will put hospital funding at the heart of the campaign, amid fears of incendiary attacks from the states over emergency ward cuts that could put lives at risk.
State officials were told last Friday that Mr Turnbull was “fighting” for a better funding deal on hospitals and early childhood education but key ministers were opposing the aid ahead of a federal budget that will set out long-term savings to help pay for tax relief.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/federal-election-2016-pm-and-scott-morrison-split-on-1bn-health-deal/news-story/39ba244cd4cb191e94a8edc763b71b78
psychlaw,
Cash was involved in the discussios on Sunday night when Turnbull made his decision to bring back parliament early. That’s been widely reported. So you can believe it or keep on with your hysteria.
Whether she is a regular in the inner circle or just called in is certainly an unknown. However, she was definately in the loop on this matter.
I posted earlier that Sinodinis was in the group. Bishop and Payne are actually overseas in Bali. So, their involvement in this decison is probably been delegated to Turnbull.
Fifield would probably be involved seeing as he is the Leader in the Senate and from Victoria.
Your long list of participants would contradict the whole point of calling it an inner circle.
victoria@554
At first I thought you were taking the mickey. Then I thought “wow!” victoria does move in elevated circles!
Then I thought that the columns referred to were your posts on PB, and I was even more impressed.
What a shame it was just Richo!
He better enjoy those lunches while he can, the poor bugger is for the knife pretty soon. He is a very ill man, as most here would realise. I wish him well.
[
Diogenes
Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 3:47 pm | Permalink
….
I imagine no Australian city would reach 5%.
]
Reseach has show Australians overestimate the % of population that is Muslim.
Last Census: Sydney’s 3.91%, Melbourne’s 2.87% and Perth’s 1.53%
In particular , Richardson was the master in turning the Green agenda to Labor’s advantage and also in negotiating preferences from environmental parties for the 1990 election.
Courtesy of Wikipedia he was instrumental in
[“blocking the Wesley Vale pulp mill. As Minister for the Environment, Richardson also advocated for and was successful in inscribing the Daintree Rainforest and surrounding areas on the UNESCO World Heritage List in 1988,[18] and a protected status for Kakadu National Park, prior to inscribing Stage 2 of Kakadu NP on the World Heritage List in 1987.]
Even he only did it all for political advantage, it’s still a record that can’t be denied.
Thanks Jen
Tres interesting
[616
psyclaw
But Pyne and Cash would not make the top 10 of ministers to be one of a very small handful of confidants, in my book.]
Whatever Howard’s faults, he had enough political nous to make sure Pyne was never given any serious responsibility.
@Just Me/639
Except we got Downer instead.
Re Diogenes @619: for the City of Bankstown, a local Government area in SW Sydney (population about 180,000), Muslims comprise about 19% of the population. This may be the highest in Australia or would be close to highest. In Sydney overall the proportion is about 4.7%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_of_Bankstown#Demographics
GG
” keep on with your hysteria”
Doesn’t take much to get you to press your abuse button, does it old boy!
If you read my post rather than emoting about it you might understand that the names I submitted were not a suggested “inner circle”. It was a list of those I see as top contenders from which an inner circle might be chosen…….. all of whom would be better choices than Cash or The Fixer.
And BTW, I don’t know who was in Truffles’ inner circle on Sunday night. My original thesis remains …. IF Truffles chose Cash and Pyne as members of a very small inner circle, then chalk up another misjudgement.
Hopefully they were there giving him advice ….. all the greater the probability that his strategy will self destruct.
Phoenix Red
Yes, your list is vastly superior to mine!
Apologies for not turning Bold off.
Fingers crossed it’ll turn itself off.
Steve777
I live in the City Bankstown and think that would be correct.
[567
Boris
The biggest problem in construction isn’t unions getting pay raises for their members, it is poor quality construction.]
A drearily predictable long-term result of the shift starting 2-3 decades back to the self-inspection/certification model, plus the gutting of decent TAFE training, for which both sides of politics have to take blame.
So much better, not to mention more economically efficient, to prevent these problems emerging in the first place.
Except to the neo-liberal and libertarian fairy-tale idiots, to whom it is all best dealt with retrospectively via lawsuits.
“of Bankstown”
“I imagine no Australian city would reach 5% [Muslim].” Good guess, Diogenes. Sydney has most at around 4.7% (Sydney is also Australia’s most religious city, and Hobart the least).
psyclaw,
It’s very clear who is emoting here and it isn’t me, comrade.
Your opinion is actually topped by the reality of who is in this inner circle. But, I suppose that dealing with reality and not your fantasies is always a maturity problem you seem to have.
But, you vent away.
I’m sure it makes you feel inadequate.
dave
[If the current rate of migration of Muslims to Europe and the Muslim fertility rate remains constant, by 2030, people of Muslim faith or origin are predicted to form about 10% of the French population and 8% of the European population. ]
A sizable number of the Muslims in France are from former colonies in the north of Africa. France actually did fairly well with its colonies, with some exceptions.
A ‘rule of thumb’ on the France’s immigrant Muslims is that if they come from a desert area they bear watching.
An example – Tunisians: If they come from a coastal area (the vast majority of Tunisians)they are no problem. Consider them French. Other Tunisians are treated with suspicion.
Just Me
Exactly. Howard had accurately assessed the Fixer.
Pyne has his uses of course; he is an excellent footsoldier to send out to face the media when something absolutely ridiculous has to be flagged or defended.