This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.
Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.
Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.
I hope this isn’t stale news. Today’s Crikey, Josh Taylor.
[…Those who want a return to a full fibre NBN are pinning their hopes on Labor switching back to the policy if it wins the next election. So far the party’s communications spokesperson, Jason Clare, has yet to reveal exactly what Labor would do if returned to government, outside of saying Labor’s plan would involve “more fibre”.
If that eventuates, NBN is prepared. Speaking to Crikey during a visit to a number of NBN rollout sites in Queensland last week, Morrow said that the company was in a much better position now than it was three years ago to deal with potential changes.
…On the tour, journalists were shown examples of how NBN deals with different terrains and scenarios. For example, in a set of three premises on Double Jump Road in Mount Cotton, to service three premises, NBN would have had to spend $200,000 in order to power a node to the location. Instead NBN is spending $120,000 to build fibre to the premises for all three. NBN staff in the area indicated that despite this high cost, the remaining area — filled with all FttP premises — would still come within the company’s expected budget.
…As Crikey has reported before, over the past few months there has been a concerted campaign from someone connected to the NBN to leak documents aimed at showing the technology choices favoured by Turnbull are not measuring up. NBN refuses to comment on the documents — although it effectively did with last week’s announcement — but Morrow says NBN has emphasised to staff that the leaks are potentially against the law, not to mention company policy.
Morrow says he expects there to be leaks ahead of the election, just as there were leaks before to the 2013 election.]
How is Malcolm throwing $1 billion at the States (if he gets to throw it) going to make them shut up?
Sounds to me like Business tax cuts are the holy grail and
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@628
Like a lapsed Catholic returning to he faith. 😆
EGT
[Additionally, immigration into Australia has been managed to reduce the creation of ghettos, whilst in France and (presumably) Belgium the management has been completely incompetent.]
I wondered about that. There is a big difference between Australian cities and some other countries. How do governments control which suburbs people from different nationalities move into?
…holy grail anyway.
GG the Abuser
#648 ….. QED
psclaw,
Oh dear. More emoting and venting.
Keep it going and get it out of your system.
Put the bold on and use lots of capitals if it makes you feel better.
bemused@427
Interesting points.
I grew up in Singapore, a multicultural mesh in a sea of south-east Asian nations that consist of Muslim and Buddhist majorities. Most of the nations have got along OK for the last half century, with friction coming more from politics, border or trade issues.
My parents and I have seen a more laissez-faire version of Islam that was tolerant of not only the colonial powers, but of later emerging non-religious politics.
It is only in the recent decades that I see a rise of more conservative political thoughts in cultural practices (and I don’t limit this to only Islam, as I’ve seen the same happening in Buddhist, Taoists and atheist groups).
Wahhabism might be the cause of conservatism among Islamic groups (and perhaps the rest a reaction to it?).
The only difference between Richo earlier and now is that he’s stopped undermining Bill Shorten. Richo was in the commentary team that Shorten was doomed because of TURC.
His current articles are welcome. However, I don’t trust his motives.
It would be worse if Morrison wasn’t even in the “outer” circle.
He seems to have amde a choice that he’d rather be mates with Ray Hadley than participate in Cabinet meetings. Turnbull may have seen Morrison’s almost co-dependent love for the shock-jock and decided that ScoMo could not be trusted to keep his mouth shut, or perhaps more accurately, to lie convincingly.
The 2GB jocks play rope a dope with all kinds of people. Steve Lewis (he of the “I-just-happened-to-be-down-at-the-Federal-Court-when-James-Ashby-popped-his-statement-of-claim-into-the-box”) spilled his guts to Chris Smith about being in cahoots with Ashby all along.
This didn’t go down well next day in the Federal Court, in the Slipper case.
Abbott was renowned for saying too much in interviews with Jones.
Turnbull likes neither Jones nor Hadley, and he probably thought to himself that if ScoMo wanted to make his bed with the 2GB crowd, he could bloody-well lie in it.
Still, being saddled with a loudmouth for a Treasurer, especially one who lied as profusely (but as poorly) as ScoMo, was probably the fundamental mistake.
When push comes to shove, ScoMo’s Hadley addiction will see him back on the show next week probably, and bullshitting Ray and his bogan listeners even more.
You can’t keep a good blabbermouth down.
GG
I reckon Richo’s motives are in part to support his friends who dont want Turnbull at the helm
Poor Turnbull; he has to beat Shorton; Abbott and the cross benches.
vic,
Richos loyalties are somewhat liquid it seems.
There haven’t been many he hasn’t turned on.
Only Keating called his bluff.
Richo left politics shortly after no doubt having worked out that being a power broker without any power was a waste of time.
I use my real name and title here, but choose to use a pseudonym IRL. Lake Disappointment has been under hostile control since I was run out of town on false charges by a kangaroo court – I’ve been living in exile in Useless Loop since then.
I reckon Continuity With Change easily beats “We are us”, if only on the basis that the gobsmackingly asinine latter wasn’t a tautology.
BB,
At heart ScoMo is a publicity tart.
However, in the Turnbull Government there is only one media tart and that is Malcolm.
FREDNK – Machiavelli said, very clearly, that a Prince should NOT create as many enemies as possible and should NOT let them surround him. But I guess that, because Malcolm’s a genius, he doesn’t have to follow Niccolo’s advice.
Regarding the discussion re muslim populations in European cities having lived in Sweden and having relatives there I would think that Malmo would be close to a quarter muslim.
Shame, that place use to be very nice.
Diogenes@654
From observation and not any scientific study, ethnic groups do tend to cluster in particular suburbs, at least initially.
From that base they then seem to gradually disperse more widely, although the initial base may still remain to some extent.
[
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 4:56 pm | Permalink
FREDNK – Machiavelli said, very clearly, that a Prince should NOT create as many enemies as possible and should NOT let them surround him. But I guess that, because Malcolm’s a genius, he doesn’t have to follow Niccolo’s advice.
]
Creating a soap boxes for the cross benches seemed a very strange move; but the Fairfax press have informed us it is a brilliant piece in a master plan.
[It would be worse if Morrison wasn’t even in the “outer” circle.
He seems to have amde a choice that he’d rather be mates with Ray Hadley than participate in Cabinet meetings]
That is the substance of the Turnbull/Morrison relationship at present. The 2GB team, not just Hadley, are out to destroy Turnbull and are making no secret about that. Therefore it is difficult for Morrison to support Hadley and support his PM at the same time. He is trying to walk both sides of the street.
That goes to the nut of the problem on Sunday/Monday. How could Turnbull be expected to take Morrison into his confidence knowing that he would be sitting with Hadley just an hour or two before Turnbull was to make a key announcement?
Of course 2GBinc is now blowing that out of all proportion in their attempted destruction of Turnbull. Morrison is either playing a long game to replace Turnbull after 2GBinc achieve their aim or Morrison is just plain naïve. I don’t believe Morrison is naïve.
Victoria @ 553
A fascinating column. Richo often is too pleased to be the godfather of the Sussex St method, but he can smell poor politics (if not good policy) from an ocean away. And I think he has nailed the situation perfectly.
Meanwhile Turncoat has shoved Morrison right out of the tent, but is wondering what the golden coloured liquid lapping at his knees is.
davidwh
What does Morrison do? Allow Turnbull to destroy his reputation? Me thinks Morrison would rather see Turnbull take the hit
TPOF
And the funny thing is that the golden liquid is coming from many directions!!
Malcolm is only in power because of Morrison’s support. Clearly he has lost that now. Murdoch seems to have given up on Malcolm, as well. I feel that the PM’s days could be numbered. Shorten versus ???? at the election.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/brisbane-council-election-the-greens-claim-the-gabba-20160323-gnpe36.html
[Brisbane City Council will have its first Greens councillor after Labor conceded defeat in The Gabba on Wednesday, four days after the election.
While both Greens candidate Jonathan Sri and Labor’s Nicole Lessio trailed the Liberal National Party’s Sean Jacobs in the primary vote, the preference flow between the two left-leaning parties ensured Mr Jacobs was shut out.]
First Green to be elected in a single-member electorate in QLD.
Morrison voted for Abbott in the leadership ballot. What he didn’t do was use his influence to sway any waverers to support Abbott.
A letter in today’s West “Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull – double disillusion”.
Wish I had come up with that!
zoidlord@640
True, but Downer was a senior ex-leader, who could not be so easily brushed aside.
Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment@664
Good grief! I had forgotten “we are us”.
psyclaw@650
When shameless, baldfaced hypocrisy and dissembling is needed, Pyne is the just the sort of muppet you’d use.
“Morrison voted for Abbott in the leadership ballot”. Abbott suggested that he didn’t believe this.
Airlines@675
Sad news.
Note they didn’t defeat an LNP member but an ALP member. I hope DTT and others learn the lesson from that.
GG @ 574
[This meme that the Coalition are all fools and knaves really is lazy thinking. The Libs are still in the box seat to be re-elected. If you think this is sheer luck or because the media fix is in or (pick your own conspiracy theory) then you are venting and not thinking, comrade.]
I would almost always agree that the people who get into these positions in Parliament are pretty smart operators. But I have been gobsmacked by the sheer political idiocy of the Coalition since they got into power. They were always knaves, but I have never seen a more foolish bunch.
As for the Libs being in the box seat, again I would agree with you that typically that enough voters would regard a first term government had done enough to be allowed another term. But the last two and a quarter years have been the most self-inflicted dogs breakfast I have ever seen any term of government produce.
I continue to hold that Labor will win the election. But not because I have a naive belief that the electorate will come to its senses and realise how bad the Liberal policies are. I have a simple view of the voters – and especially the swinging voters. They are so cynical of politicians that they are grateful to have a government that is vaguely competent and is sufficiently self-controlled to at least appear to be working on the public’s concerns and issues and not playing power games with itself.
This government patently falls below that standard and will be considered for replacement at the next election if the voters consider the alternative to be sufficiently better. Shorten and Labor can say: ‘Hey. We have policies. We have thought about these policies.’.
More importantly they will say (and have been saying for some time) that they learnt from the mistakes they made when last in Government. They have kept the leader. There has been no infighting. There has been no leaking. There has been no undermining. Because Labor has learnt that there is nothing the electorate hate more than politicians thinking their own petty feuds are more important than working for the public. But the Liberals still don’t get that. Vote for us and you will get stable, competent, if not thrilling government. Just like Bill Shorten.
After the last 9 years, I reckon that pitch will be an absolute winner to the public.
Earlier today, Turnbull’s ‘charm’ was mentioned in passing.
I’ve expected it, looked for it, and I’m damned if I can see it since he became PM.
davidwh
[Morrison is just plain naïve.]
I chose this option.
Morrison is not perceptive enough to understand he’s now part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Required, and also a great tactic. Bring it to the top of public awareness.
Labor demands Coalition stop CSIRO climate cuts until after election
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/labor-demands-coalition-stop-csiro-climate-cuts-until-after-election-20160322-gnp1ws.html
So can I get this clear – it’s possible that the NBN could be run as an election issue – if you vote Labor, you get the original FTTP that was sabotaged (for political reasons) up by the Coalition govt.
Wow!
Which is the dog and which the flea –
[ It’s one of the more extraordinary pieces of speculation in an already extraordinary race for the White House.
Rumour has spread that Rupert Murdoch’s most colourful editor Colin “Col” Allan could become a key media advisor to Donald Trump if the Republican presidential frontrunner gets the party’s nomination to run for President of the United States.
Sources told Fairfax Media they were convinced the Australian-born Mr Allan, famous for visiting Scores strip club with Kevin Rudd, has been sounded out for an advisory role by the billionaire, who has regularly flown Mr Allan in his helicopter to play rounds of golf as part of their long-standing acquaintance.]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/rupert-murdochs-ultimate-editor-col-allan-denies-he-could-become-donald-trumps-media-advisor-20160321-gnnz20#ixzz43hk4iQWn
TPOF
If Labor doesn’t win the election, I sincerely hope that they don’t immediately ditch Shorten, but I bet they will (tradition?).
[davidwh
Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 5:02 pm | PERMALINK
How could Turnbull be expected to take Morrison into his confidence knowing that he would be sitting with Hadley just an hour or two before Turnbull was to make a key announcement?]
This probably wouldn’t matter if the issue at hand was not something as important as the preparation of the budget. However now we have PM and Treasurer at loggerheads just when the pre-election budget is being formulated. Politically, this public falling out could not have come at a worse time.
Also in today’s West
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/31166244/turnbull-in-u-turn-on-climate-fund/
Note comment at the end re Essential “A new Essential Media poll shows Labor lifting to be level-pegging with the Government.” I thought this was the 3rd Essential poll in a row at 50:50. Perhaps takes time for some journos to catch up.
Bankstown has always made a home for the latest wave of immigrants, at least since the start of post WW2 immigration. When I was in school in the late 50s and 60s, many of my classmates and were ‘New Australians’ – they and/or their parents had come from Italy, Eastern Europe, Greece, Malta, Holland and other parts of Europe, as well as from the UK (although most of the latter, being Protestants, went to the Public schools).
In the 70s, it was Vietnamese and other Asian people. From the late 70s, Lebanese people and others from the Middle East, both Chritian and Muslim, arrived in large numbers.
In time, many members of all groups moved on to other parts of Sydney and other parts of Australia. Many (and their decendants) stayed.
They came to Bankstown (and to other less glamorous parts of our cities) because they had family here, or at least could be near people who spoke their language and shared their heritage. There were no doubt some who would have preferred a harbourside mansion (and some who eventually got one), but Bankstown was what they could afford.
As I recall, each group was accused in turn by some of my less tolerant neighbours and family members of forming ghettos and gangs. It for the ‘New Australians’ and Vietnamese, it eventually passed, as I am sure it eventually will for more recent arrivals.
Bulletin No 3 Day 3 23 March 2016
As a good mate of Bluey’s predicted last week, Turnbull is keeping the Clean Energy Corporation but find a way to gutting it. Presto! Global warming funds will now go to Turnbull’s favourite destination: spivs. The funds will now not make a tonne of practical difference to atmospheric CO2 for the foreseeable future.
Plus Bluey reckons that this means that Turnbull cock’s Abbott’s snoot. Or is that Turnbull snoots Abbott’s ….. uh… no.
Also real CEFC money has been turned into loans. So the Turnbull Government is borrowing money to lend to spivs. Classic. Meanwhile, the real money that was in the Clean Energy Finance Corporation has been pirated. Classic Merchant Banker. Count your fingers, everyone.
Hunt looks like a real dick. Seven months ago he twice voted FOR scrapping the CEFC. It is on the list of DD triggers. Now he is earnestly, yes earnestly, defending the CEFC. On Sky at 4.43 pm. That was then, this is now’.
To put some raving right cream on his three card climate trick, Turnbull is pissing away $3 million on people who reckon they lose sleep over windmills. Pander.
Bluey reckons that Turnbull is a merchant banker who routinely does the Big Short on his colleagues, truth and good policy. The Raving Right are going boots and all on the ABCC. Bluey imagines that this will go on for at least the next month.
Bluey reckons that VEEP ‘Continuity and Change’ is a Ruddster Repeat. Why? Because when prime ministers have pricks like Abbott and Rudd circling them, chopping them down, sucking their oxygen, prime ministers get toey and do STUPID STUFF. Gillard did it. Now Turnbull is doing it. Bluey reckons that the parallels remind him of continuity and change. There is continuity in the bastardry. There is change in the perps and their victims.
Bluey notes that the Prime Minister has told the Treasurer that the Budget is a Budget-in-confidence matter, and since the Prime Minister has zip confidence in the Treasurer, the Treasurer can go and make a public fool of himself anytime he likes. Bluey notes that thus far the Treasurer has demonstrated stoic public indifference to being treated like a doormat. Lots of time is being spent on this in the conservative MSM.
The ATO’s release of the names of filthy rich people and filthy mega companies that pay NO tax is nicely timed. We have had not had the Government talk about company tax reductions since. Bluey reckons that this is an Achilles heel for any merchant banker.
Bluey notes the Greens are still whinging uselessly about something or other. Apparently the Bestiality Boys want to do something bad and ONLY the Greens want to do the Right Thing about this Bad Thing du jour. Bluey wasn’t sure whether to go ‘Quel Surprise’ or ‘Tant pis’.
Bluey reckons how easy is it for Shorten? All he has to do is intone ‘panic’, ‘all front and no substance’ ‘shambles’ ‘chaos’ and ‘fair dinkum’. Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison are taking care of the rest.
There is growing speculation that Lord Pollywaffle of the Swimming Pool is going to try to buy the election with a big debt bill. Winners will be bankers, spivs, farmers, spivs, state premiers, spivs, construction company executives, spivs, and spivs. Bluey reckons that we will see Turnbull doing another Big Short. This time on hospitals and schools. This works like this: First cut tens of billions of funding and then return a small proportion of this to desperate state premiers.
Lord Pollywaffle of the Swimming Pool has fixed pollies’ ‘entitlements’ by calling them ‘working expenses’. Bluey, who is sensitive about possible demeaning accusations that he is a bit of entitlements rorter and a bit of a leaner, is having an on-water yacht berth built into his rock pool as a work expense.
Bluey has so far noted three set of ads. One was from the Property Council telling us all how civilization would collapse without negative gearing. The other was Indigenous people telling Mr Turnbull that Indigenous people want more Indigenous rangers. (Bluey reckons that Turnbull and Scullion are far more intent on pocketing the $500 million they have skived off Indigenous programs than actually doing something useful for Indigenous people. The third is a series of AEU ads for the final two years of the first six years of Gonski funding. Bluey reckons that merchant bankers are not interested in funding kids who go to slum schools.
Bluey sees absolutely no sign that the voting public are engaged. None. De nada. Zip. Aucun. Rien. In fact Bluey is reminded of stuff that his science teacher put on water that was so anhydrous that it zipped around the water’s surface. As an occi, Bluey was appalled at the potential implications.
Bluey notes that Sinodinos casually repeated the lie that the ABCC will increase productivity. Shortly after that lie, Sin O reckoned that Scomo and Lord PW worked together this morning for hours, like a pair of lovebirds.
Biggest loser for the day: Hunt who has once again done the old 180 degrees. He has twice voted for destroying the CEFC. Now he is defending it. At every single iteration of Coalition global warming policy, Hunt earnestly assures everyone that THIS time it is truly wonderful. THIS time is fantastic. THIS time Hunt is truly delighted. Bluey reckons ‘Sure’. Bluey just heard Hunt waffle on about Ozone stuff. Bluey reminds Hunt that the Ozone hole is, right now, the BIGGEST it has ever been.
Biggest winner for the day: Shorten. He keeps looking like an adult by doing nothing much. How easy is that?
Verdict. On balance, a win for Shorten and Labor. After all, when the enemy is busy hacking into each other, the best plan is to leave them to it.
Running tally: Liberals 1 Labor 2.
lizzie @ 689
If Labor doesn’t win the election, I sincerely hope that they don’t immediately ditch Shorten, but I bet they will (tradition?).
Depends on how badly he loses. But there is no tradition that requires him to be ditched after only one election as leader after losing power. Beazley was kept for two terms after Labor last lost power, in 1996.
BW – who is ‘Bluey’?
[40.TPOF
If Labor doesn’t win the election, I sincerely hope that they don’t immediately ditch Shorten, but I bet they will (tradition?).
]
On the contrary this is clearly the worst Australian government ever, if shorten doesn’t win he must be replaced.
I still think he is favorite to win.
bemused, 682
Technically they didn’t defeat an ALP sitting member because she retired before the election 😉
The Greens’ second best result was in Paddington, where they had a 5.6% swing away from the Coalition sitting member:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/brisbane-city-council-2016/wards/padd/
The Greens were also on the 2PP in two other wards which had strong swings away from the Liberals (Pullenvale, 13.6% swing, and Walter Taylor, 6.3% swing) but unfortunately they’re safe seats so it didn’t seem to do much.
S777
Bluey is an octopus who hangs around in his rock pool between elections but who emerges for a bit of a political spray every three years or so.
TPOF
Oh, good. Shorten IMO is a negotiator par excellence. He could hold the party together after a defeat and build on the policy work they are doing now. A new leader might want to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
TPOF,
Your judgement of knaves and fools is personal. Listing the alleged failures of individuals and the Government is fun. But, does it actually mean anything? Sure on an echo box like PB you’ll get your confidence raising cheers. However, the reality is that most people in voter land don’t care and rate Governments and PMs on entirely different criteria.
I also believe Labor has a chance of snatching Government. But, this is more likely to be because the other side is disunited and more focussed on undermining the current leader than any particular policy failure
Thinking the other side are mugs, clueless and devoid of intelligence is simple rhetoric. The pity is that many here see it as establishing themselves as political savants.
The LNP have dominated Government in this country throughout our nationhood. They seem to have been in tune with the voters over the journey and are flexible enough to promote policies that get them elected.
This current Government is divided between ideology and pragmatism. History says pragmatism usually wins. If it doesn’t then Labor will probably win the election.