This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.
Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.
Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.
BW @698 – thank you.
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GG
[The LNP have dominated Government in this country throughout our nationhood. They seem to have been in tune with the voters over the journey and are flexible enough to promote policies that get them elected.]
Their raison d’etre is to be in power and they will lie, bribe the voters and change horses in mid-stream to get there. They also have the backing of the establishment.
Poor old Labor just has a good heart and a wish for fairness.
lizzie@699
You speak of ‘Labor’ as if it is a single being.
In the first instance, IIRC, all positions would be declared vacant.
If Shorten ends up with a good result then I would expect he would be the only nomination for leader and that would be the end of it.
If another member of Caucus nominated, then there would be, under the Rules made under Rudd, be a ballot of all members and a separate ballot of all Caucus members.
Do you think Shorten would lose such a ballot?
[Trog Sorrenson
686
Labor demands Coalition stop CSIRO climate cuts until after election ]
Excellent move. Goes right to the core of the con’s mendacity, hypocrisy, and pure idiocy on something that matters hugely to any society going into the 21st century.
Not to mention that it ties in nicely with…
[shiftaling@687
So can I get this clear – it’s possible that the NBN could be run as an election issue – if you vote Labor, you get the original FTTP that was sabotaged (for political reasons) up by the Coalition govt.
Wow!]
Best I can tell, Labor have been deliberately holding back on this one, giving it time to fester and expose the con’s con, and I expect Labor will make this critical issue and major policy difference a centre piece of their campaign.
After Turnbull’s Pea and Thimble trick on ARENA and tackling global warming, his next trick will be to privatise the Indigenous Advancement Strategy.
There’s got to be buck in it.
bemused
I have read PB long enough to know that nothing is certain and my judgement is not everyone’s.
lizzie@707
I doubt Shorten would be opposed and if he were I can see no chance of a challenger getting anywhere. Shorten would increase his vote among both the membership and Caucus significantly.
GG @ 700
[However, the reality is that most people in voter land don’t care and rate Governments and PMs on entirely different criteria.]
How do you see the swinging voters in winnable/losable seats thinking differently to what I was saying?
[The LNP have dominated Government in this country throughout our nationhood. They seem to have been in tune with the voters over the journey and are flexible enough to promote policies that get them elected.]
I made it clear that it was not the Liberal National Coalition generally, but the clowns who took power in 2013 that I am dissing. And it is specifically because of their totally politically inept performance which, frankly, was a huge surprise.
Something that differentiates between Labor and the Libs is that Labor tends to hang on to defeated Leaders (think Beazley, Hayden, Whitlam, Caldwell etc)
The only Leader to contest the next election after not winning for the Libs are Tony Abbott and Menzies.
Abbott’s casual comment yesterday that he ‘had a look’ at media reform but unlike Malcolm, decided to pass on any change hasn’t attracted any scrutiny. But I suspect its a pretty crude signal to Rupert that he wouldn’t have introduced Malcolm’s media reform – the reform that has clearly pissed off News Ltd so much. Perhaps explains News Ltd’s lukewarm support for Malcolm. An Abbott return perhaps if the polls turn south … stranger things have happened …
If Labor lose the election, all posts should be declared vacant and renominated, as part of a process to look at result and why it happened, however given Shorten’s performance so far he should be the sole nominee for leader.
As Bluey writes above until people engage we won’t have an idea of Labor’s chances I believe they can win, and certainly deserve to, but cannot tell yet.
TPOF,
I reckon the swingers are in safe Labor seats at the moment. The sitting Member effect combined with political indifference by many voters would probably see the Libs returned atm.
Winners write the history. The inept can be transformed in to adept at the stroke of a pen.
Just Me
[and I expect Labor will make this critical issue and major policy difference a centre piece of their campaign.]
Yep.
Getting some decent info out to explain to voters what they won’t get under the Coalition is the go.
And underlining that it is Turnbull’s blinkered view and stubbornness that is giving us a very inferior NBN and wasting a huge amount of money on something that will very quickly need replacing.
Got my first letterbox drop for the new Labor Candidate today.
He seems to me to be pretty good candidate for Banks.
GG @ 713
[I reckon the swingers are in safe Labor seats at the moment. ]
Sorry. That doesn’t make sense.
Trog Sorrenson @686
Labor demands Coalition stop CSIRO climate cuts until after election
I agree, good move.
I recall that when Julia Gillard announced the 2013 election date 7 months early, Christopher Pyne insisted that we were now in the caretaker period and the PM could not make further significant decisions or policy changes. That was bullshit of course, and mostly unchallenged. It was as per an earlier poster noted, that Pyne was useful to wheel out when something that was untrue and/or ridiculous and/or idiotic ‘needed’ to be said with a straight face.
But it is good for Labor to push the meme that, while we are not in any caretaker period, the Government should not be making big and disruptive changes unless or until they have the blessing of the voters.
It feels like if the polls start putting Labor ahead, especially if it is a newspoll, Liberals will just implode. Shorten and ALP will just have to keep chipping away and put policies out. I don’t think drop in Turnbull’s popularity have bottomed out even if the voting intention is slowly stabilizing.
TPOF,
The surge to Labor is swinging voters that live in seats that are currently held by Labor.
The marginal seats are where the Government is won or lost. I just don’t think the swingers in those seats are engaged atm.
Who is bluey?
A mate of paul I suppose.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus
Isn’t it strange that although Morrison has been loyal and noble in public, all the media reports say that he is royally p*ssed off?
Naughty media, making things up like that.
It’s pretty classy in the Trump v Cruz race.
[Trump and Cruz ended up in an unseemly Twitter squabble over their wives.
Trump wrongly accusing Cruz of being behind an ad in Utah that used a nude photograph of his wife Melania from a GQ shoot fifteen years ago and added: “Be careful, Lyin’ Ted, or I will spill the beans on your wife!”
Cruz responded: “Pic of your wife not from us. Donald, if you try to attack Heidi, you’re more of a coward than I thought.”]
GG @ 719
I’m not looking what the polls are telling me now. I’m looking at how the swinging voters in the centre have behaved in elections for the last 40 years that I have been following elections. And they value competence, unity and a sense of purpose above policy and above hip pocket benefits.
And this government fails incredibly on all the things that swinging voters value. Labor have done more than enough to pass on those factors. People will decide close to the election
zoomster
[Isn’t it strange that although Morrison has been loyal and noble in public, all the media reports say that he is royally p*ssed off?]
Like Swan under K***D he’s been abandoned.
Having been away for an all day meeting I have just caught up with the last nine hours of PB and I must say it has been a refreshing experience. Not one scintilla of R-G-R or Greens are shit- no they’re not.
It’s a credit to all posters for a full day of excellent, relevant discourse.
z,
Morrison has had a dream run.
He lost his original pre-selection and was installed by HO.
He obtained a Minsitry where he was not made accountable because of the made up notion of ‘On Water Matter”.
He rode fame as the guy that stopped the boats.
He played the “clever” game of seeming to support all candidates in the leadership struggle and secured the promotion to Treasury.
Now, he’s being made to actually do a real job in which three word slogans, media tarting and on the hop brainfarts don’t cut it.
Methinks Scot has been promoted way beyond his level of competency. No wonder he’s peeved.
There was a time when Labor supporters were happy for Abbott to remain leader to keep Turnbull out, and so make life easier for Shorten.
Strange that Malcolm is now looking like an asset for Bill, and the Libs might now have more chance with Tony (sshh… don’t tell them).
Some time ago I posted a link to an on-line survey being run by Graham Young, who has been doing these polls for a long time. The result are now in
[We’ve released part of our last research on federal politics which shows that many of you have Malcolm Turnbull on probation. Those on the right have tended to stay with him, and he has garnered substantial support from those who voted ALP and Greens last election.
But as we’ve seen this year, that support has been leaking away as he makes, or fails to make, decisions.
My assessment is that the next election may come down to sociability rather than policy. The advantage Mr Turnbull has over both Messrs Shorten and Abbott is that people find him generally more likeable. Given the low regard in which politicians are currently held, less tangible factors like this are more important than they might normally be.
Turnbull wasn’t caught up in the very adversarial politics of the Abbott/Shorten era, and there is a sense of relief that the volume has been turned down.
I’ve summarised a lot of this in an oped which you can read by clicking here.http://whatthepeoplewant.net/ and read
turnbull was always on probation
The tables, the Leximancer maps, and a sample of qualitative responses are in a report that you can download by clicking here.
http://whatthepeoplewant.net and read Turnbull held aloft by projection and likeabilty
With an election on the way we will be polling much more frequently in the next few months.
I am also sitting on the results of our polling on taxation waiting for the conversation on double dissolutions to die down. There are some surprises in it, and it will give you a better understanding into why the parties are going in the directions they are on taxation.
Thanks for your continuing support. We have a unique database of attitudes on Australian politics which now covers 15 years.
Regards,
Graham Young]
If there is a problem with links just google “What the people want”
There were 13 000 participants in the survey but it was done last December! Make what you will of the survey results but I suspect tey are way out of date. For a start Turnbulls support has collapsed a lot since then. So the figures are of historical interest only and will have little bearing on the election results.
Also, Graham is a Liberal party person as noted in some of the comments on his posts.
TPOF,
Malcolm can do “Sense of Purpose” on his head. What’s more they will love the gravitas.
Hip pocket equals economic competency imho.
You forgot stability. As a rule, we are reluctant “chuckers out of Governments”.
I would have said the Libs failed your test in 1980, 1998 and probably 1961. Yet they prevailed in all those elections.
[Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment
Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 4:53 pm | PERMALINK
I use my real name and title here, but choose to use a pseudonym IRL. Lake Disappointment has been under hostile control since I was run out of town on false charges by a kangaroo court – I’ve been living in exile in Useless Loop since then.]
Do you have any relatives that you could visit in Dismal Swamp?
PS: Google Maps gives a choice of Dismal Swamps
[ Not one scintilla of R-G-R or Greens are shit- no they’re not. ]
Those being favourite subjects here BK, but nowhere near as enthralling as ongoing Liberal self harm. 🙂
[ Make what you will of the survey results but I suspect tey are way out of date. ]
Yup i got that. I reckon things have moved since then and will be moving even faster now the “campaign” is on. 🙂
Better be Agile Mal!!
citizen,
Dismal Swamps?
Wasn’t that the original name for Adelaide?
GG
[Wasn’t that the original name for Adelaide?]
Brisbane, I think.
rossco@728
I place close to zero value on his work.
He uses self selecting respondents, not a random sample.
[Dismal Swamps?
Wasn’t that the original name for Adelaide?]
I rather thought the distinguishing feature of swamps was water.
Someone said that Turnbull’s “inner despot” will be revealed before the election. It will be over red rover for him thereafter
WB,
In all good marketing as in politics, you get the hard part out of the way in the title.
GG @ 729
We’ll see within 100 days which of us is right. But I do have to argue about this:
[Malcolm can do “Sense of Purpose” on his head. What’s more they will love the gravitas.]
Have you been listening to him lately – especially under pressure? There is a fine line between charismatic orator and meaningless, boring bag of wind. And Turncoat is nowhere near that line. A boring bag of wind getting windier and windier. That is all.
The lessons are:
Labor can’t afford to take voters for granted.
Voter support is earned, not unconditional.
Votes belong to the voters who cast them, not to a party that has grown accustomed to them.
Cantankerous old Labor-supporting blowhards need to get over themselves.
CTar1 714
Labor will have 99% of the tech community happy to help out with explaining the issues and selling the policy. Lining up around the block even.
The sort of passionate and technically competent political support that money can’t buy, it can only come from genuine understanding and conviction.
Labor are on safe political and technological ground here. They have won that policy battle already, just have not started fully selling it yet.
By the way, do people realise that it does not matter who is in the right and wrong in the Turncoat-ScoMo imbroglio. The fact that we are discussing it at all is doing no good at all to the Coalition brand.
But for what it’s worth, the fact that the Treasurer did not know until minutes before that the PM had brought the budget forward by a week is absolutely absurd. If that had happened to Swan in either of the Labor governments he served, there would have been weeks of Terrorgraph photoshop covers and Swan would have had no choice but to resign.
[Labor will have 99% of the tech community happy to help out with explaining the issues and selling the policy. Lining up around the block even.]
Yes – but could they communicate in terms that techno-ignoramus Joe Public would understand? It’s a rare gift to be able to do that.
TPOF,
I reckon Malcolm will go in to full Bob Menzies mode and the punters will love him.
Waffling is not a problem really. Some will love how he fills the time with such a melodiously pleasing voice.
You seem to think the election will be decided by people who are engaged and interested. My feeling is that it will be the opposite.
[You seem to think the election will be decided by people who are engaged and interested. My feeling is that it will be the opposite.]
On the contrary, I think the electorate will be decided by people who have more important things to do than follow politics closely. But they do dip in and out and they pay increasing attention as we get closer to an election and the news reports get more frequent and closer to the start of the bulletins.
They are the people who will make snap judgements on who can best lead the country for the next three years based on what they had gleaned since the last election measured against what is before them now. I have said it before and I’ll say it again and again. A divided party will not beat a united one, no matter who is in charge of each.
Dismal Swamp, South Australia, post code 5291
GG
I think your pushing the brown stuff up hill. Basically the polls are 50/50 and the Libs are in a mess.
TPOF,
Dipping in and out is one thing.
However, you then go on to using words like gleaned and measured which the in and outers don’t do.
I’ve already said that continued LNP disunity is the key to the door of Government for Labor. However, whether the Libs can gloss it over for the election remains to be seen.
frednk,
Thank goodness the election is this Saturday.
Nicholas@740
Facts, as opposed to your rancid opinions are:
> Labor doesn’t take voters for granted.
> Labor fights on two fronts with the Greens on one and the Libs on the other.
> Well Duh! “votes belong to those who cast them”, only a dumb Green could mistake this as some sort of wisdom.
> Smart-arse greens will eventually get their comeuppance just like the Democrats did.