ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A poll conducted immediately after yesterday’s election timing announcement from the Prime Minister shows the Coalition retaining a modest lead, while an earlier poll from Essential Research has the parties still locked together at 50-50.

This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.

Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.

Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

982 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. I agree TPOF@742 which is why Grattan’s column today and Kenny’s image as Abbott black smithing the noble Turnbull are so reprehensible.

    Turnbull might have gotten away with a very quick campaign, before the press gallery tire of him,but this…

  2. I just spoke to a woman friend, who’s a labor voter but I think had some regard for Malcolm. She was telling me how condescending he’s seemed in the last few days. Women, I suspect, pick up this stuff a lot faster than men. But if that is the general impression, he’s in a lot of trouble.

  4. TPOF

    [Yes – but could they communicate in terms that techno-ignoramus Joe Public would understand? It’s a rare gift to be able to do that.]

    Jason Clare, however, is capable of packaging what they’re saying and then sell it to the voters.

  5. GG do remember we have just had weeks of multimillion dollar advertising by the Liberals. Not a jot of recovery. They are suffed.

  6. GG:

    [I reckon Malcolm will go in to full Bob Menzies mode and the punters will love him.]

    You’re blowin’ it out yer arse again GG.

    I get it. Someone has to be the contrarian. But in this ase you’re way wrong.

  7. BB,

    As the resident “arseblower supremo par excellence”, that’s almost a compliment from you.

    But seriously, I reckon some cosmetic work to do the Menzian eyebrows could be an absolute winner amongst the blue rinse set.

  8. frednk,

    You’ve already said that.

    Haven’t you got something like evidence or cheery bon mot to support your absurd contention.

  10. Most commentators I have seen (outside of PB) believe that the Coalition Federal Government is likely to be returned. I agree with that assessmsnt while hoping it’s wrong.

    But Coalition Governments do seem to be held to a lower standard. Maybe that goes with being the ‘natural party of government’. The following would certainly be too much baggage fir any Labor Government:

    – A Treasurer who has been completely and publically sidelined, apperently not trusted by the PM.
    – Pretty much open factional warfare
    – a PM who is beholden to and constrained by the ideologues in his party. Voters are pragmatic, they don’t care about anyone’s ideology.
    – is known to want to increase a tax that everyone pays (the GST)
    – is known by anyone paying attention to cut support for health, education and social security, including the age pension (the 2014 Budget)
    – which has no known policies

  11. [As the resident “arseblower supremo par excellence”, that’s almost a compliment from you.]

    I adnit I have a soft spot for Julia gillard, but otherwise I am generally correct.

    Stick it up yer bum, GG (in a manly way, of course).

    P.S. This doesn’t mean we’re engaged or anything.

  14. [Most commentators I have seen (outside of PB) believe that the Coalition Federal Government is likely to be returned. I agree with that assessmsnt while hoping it’s wrong.]

    That gives automatic Underdog status to Labor. A good place to be.

    I am old enough to remember the pundits telling their readers that Keating was giving Hewson a run for his money… but of course there was no chance Labor would win in 1993, naturally.

    EFF THAT for a joke LOL.

  15. No mate sitting on my desk; tuned in to election 2016; oh look there is a comment by GG claiming he always knew shorton would win.

  16. BB/GG

    The occasional bucket of cold water is justified.

    Labor winning is difficult just based on history.

    But it is doable if things go well.

    Labor shouldn’t be just waiting for the Coalition to f^ck up.

    They need to attack in a sensible and coordinated way.

  19. I coach a junior rugby union team, was having a chat with a parent I know well after training, talk turned to the DD. Says he’s going to vote for “shifty “.
    Almost fell over, this bloke has only ever voted Lib, mind you he is an Abottite. Said Turnbull had his chance in the last 6 months and had done nothing with it, and anything he said he was going to do now was just BS to get re-elected.
    He still reckons shifty is unlikely to win .He only reads the Oz, I don’t dip into the Oz waters, are they running that hard against Mal ?

  20. [Labor shouldn’t be just waiting for the Coalition to f^ck up.

    They need to attack in a sensible and coordinated way.]

    Which is exactly what they are doing.

    Shorto has been through a million fights like this. He can almost do it by the numbers.

    What a fab-tastic place to be: everyone underrates you.

  21. [
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 7:32 pm | Permalink
    ..

    Labor shouldn’t be just waiting for the Coalition to f^ck up.
    ]

    Shorten seems to have done a pretty good job of knowing when to hold up; when to fold up and when to run.

  22. The greedy get greedier:

    [Oz headline:
    Coles boss lashes PM on reform
    ELI GREENBLAT
    Coles boss John Durkan demands reforms on trading hours, penalty rates and an overload of ‘absurd’ regulations.]

    Interestingly, the words “lashes PM” would never have been used by Murdoch in relation to PM Abbott.

  23. frednk,

    It is actually “could” win.

    I’ve been saying it for awhile. So your crystal meth ball is giving you hallucinations.

  24. Once again… SMH on-line is utterly unreadable.

    John Cleese pissed-off at whatever, Tegan Somebodyorother texted someone, iPhone scandals, MPs’ favourite perk GONE, and Tennis Star’s Daughter has anorexia…

    F^ck me dead. Is this a serious rag?

  25. BB,

    Hint you really should have used the pointy end and not the broom end.

    Now I know why they call Sydneysiders “wideboys”.

  27. CTar1@766

    BB/GG

    The occasional bucket of cold water is justified.

    Labor winning is difficult just based on history.
    —

    History is the past and we cannot change it.

    We can change the future and make things happen.

    If Labor gets enough votes in 2016, it will win. What happened in 2013, 2010, 2007 …. won’t have any influence.

  30. BB

    [Which is exactly what they are doing.]

    frednk

    [Shorten seems to have done a pretty good job of knowing when to hold up; when to fold up and when to run.]

    Yes, to both of you.

    It’s a long campaign and they need to stick at it.

    The current upside is that the Coalition don’t look like they have the stamina for it. 🙂

  32. IPA types will still be calling fir ‘reform’ when we’ve reintroduced the Master and Servant Act and child labour.

    P.S. @Frednk: does your crystal ball forsee the ‘you are posting too quickly’ bug being fixed?

  33. Steve @ 760

    I agree that Labor governments are held to a higher standard than coalition governments by voters. But this Coalition government has operated well below the standard accepted by Australian voters for any government. Only a judgment that Labor would be worse could save it. And Labor have done absolutely nothing to encourage that view unlike 2010 to 2013.

    On the contrary Labor has acted like a model alternative government. Normally this would not be enough after only one term. And new oppositions are notoriously fractious as they sort out the loss of power. And that past pattern is what drives the pundits’ assessment that the Coalition must win the next election.

    But there has never been a worse first term government and a more focussed and united first term opposition then in the last two years. Which is why this time it is different.

  34. Puffy,

    Tough gig trying to bring some of the regular space cadets back to earth.

    But, thank you for the vote of confidence.

  35. [
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

    frednk,

    I can’t stop you lying.
    ]
    You wantd to know why my predictions are better than yours; I tell about my crystal ball and you accuse me of lying; so sad.

  36. [OPINION: The PM is serving up an ideological dish that has well and truly past its used by date. This is not Machiavellian genius, let alone sound economic policy. It’s another in a long series of attacks on Australian workers by the Coalition, writes Liam McLoughlin.

    Stop the presses everyone, the Prime Minister has actually made a decision. Malcolm Turnbull has pledged to take Australia to a double-dissolution election on July 2 should the Senate block legislation to reinstate the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) in late April.]

  37. STEVE777 – When you say “most of the commentators” believe the govt will be returned, your referring to the Canberra Camp Followers who have a professional and emotional interest in seeing their best contacts are returned. Any CPG correspondent who starts spouting that Labor will win will soon find their phone calls are not returned. So that disposes of that lot. The only independent source of prognostication is Poll Bludger. None of us are being paid anything to provide our bullshit.

  38. frednk,

    A lie is a lie.

    I’ve denied what you wrote. Either you can accept that or be a cretin. Up to you. I’m not particularly fussed.

  42. Bushfire Bill@774

    Once again… SMH on-line is utterly unreadable.

    John Cleese pissed-off at whatever, Tegan Somebodyorother texted someone, iPhone scandals, MPs’ favourite perk GONE, and Tennis Star’s Daughter has anorexia…

    F^ck me dead. Is this a serious rag?

    Must be a special version just for you.

    The one I see has lots of serious content but of course lighter stuff in sections like ‘Entertainment’.

  43. JBishop was interviewed on 7.30. I havent seen it yet

    [Bridget O’Flynn retweeted
    jamespatrickm
    9m9 minutes ago
    jamespatrickm ‏@dotrat
    #abc730 That pause after the Abbott question was priceless. Asbestos as ‘deer in headlights’ ]

  44. And this

    [Rowan
    13m13 minutes ago
    Rowan ‏@FightingTories
    Yes @juliebishopmp came on #abc730 thinking she’d just push the fear & terror and now gets awkward and defensive]

  45. [I rather thought the distinguishing feature of swamps was water.]

    The parklands around Adelaide once had many wetlands (at least in winter). I believe there was a plan to revamp the parks to reintroduce some of these as a means of dealing with stormwater and showing how it may have looked 200 years ago.

  46. [Most commentators I have seen (outside of PB) believe that the Coalition Federal Government is likely to be returned. I agree with that assessmsnt while hoping it’s wrong. ]

    Neither the poll trend, nor circumstance, is offering strong support for that interpretation.

    I think that overall it hangs in the balance. Mainly because Turnbull has one more major card to play, the budget. Once that is on the table there is nowhere left for him to hide.

    Gonna have to be one hell of a budgetary rabbit and sales job he pulls out of his political hat to be able to counteract the mountain of other shit he has dragging him down.

  47. SK

    [as a means of dealing with stormwater and showing how it may have looked 200 years ago.]

    Climate change must have made a big difference.

    Was there really storm-water there 200 years ago?

  49. CTar1
    Its River Torrens flood plain.

    Mind you, the use of the term ‘river’ by the locals in these parts is questionable. In Adelaide the ‘rivers’ are really just storm water open drains. But they get tetchy when I point this out.

    However, the trouble maker who set this off is from Perth and I point out that parts of Adelaide have more rainfall than Perth.

    Ask me in 4 months time when I start whining about the dreary drizzle, the cold and the fog.

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