ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A poll conducted immediately after yesterday’s election timing announcement from the Prime Minister shows the Coalition retaining a modest lead, while an earlier poll from Essential Research has the parties still locked together at 50-50.

This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.

Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.

Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

982 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. It is not a bloody desert down here, ya know. Port Adelaide residents were always called the Swampies. The swamps were drained and built on to make the very pricey housing estate, the West Lakes development.

    We have water from a number of sources now including a desal plant. Remember we are a Labor state mostly now, so things get done and stuff built. That is why the Fed Libs hate us.

  2. Perhaps the 1993 election is a good analogy, I was overseas at the time and, pre Internet, I was able to find a single paragraph with the result in the business section on about page 60 of the LA Times.

    Re, the NBN, the punters ‘get’ the NBN everyone has experienced crap unreliable service, and know labor so plan was superior, so the ALP shouldn’t have too much trouble pursues this, it is real innovation.
    The CSIRO is similar, there have been polls returning a high (I think 70%) positive regard for it.

    The current labor team appear to be the best in the last 7 years at selling policy, so I am nervously confident.

  3. Oh dear…

    [The NSW Liberal party has been slammed by election funding authorities for “concealing” the identities of illegal major donors before the 2011 election that brought it to power, including via the secretive Free Enterprise Foundation.

    In an extraordinary finding, the NSW electoral commission has concluded that, based on evidence given to the Independent Commission Against Corruption in 2014, the foundation was used by senior Liberal party officials to “channel and disguise donations by major political donors some of whom were prohibited donors”.

    The commission says it has relied on evidence given to the ICAC by senior party officials including about the “involvement” of current cabinet secretary Arthur Sinodinos, who was finance director and treasurer of the NSW Liberals at the time.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-liberals-concealed-illegal-donors-before-2011-election-win-20160323-gnpsn6.html#ixzz43iTjX4gA
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  4. It’s disappointing to see many people have written Labor off so early. Perhaps they are right.

    It makes it difficult for party workers to commit to working hard in the electorate and remain positive with this pervasive negative feeling about.

  5. Re Adelaide, when it was settled, and land grants were being offered, I read there was a 10-15 year period where it was particularly wet. Certainly compared to the last 20 years.

  6. Artie the Bagman might have to work a bit harder

    [As a consequence the commission is refusing to hand over $4.4million in public funding the NSW Liberals have claimed from last year’s state election – a decision the party says puts “pressure” on its financial situation given the looming federal election. In a potentially enormous financial blow, the commission says it will not pay likely millions of dollars in future administrative funding to the party until the donors are disclosed.]

  7. feeney
    It is more cautious hope at the moment, i think. no-one wants to risk hubris.

    Or in Turnbull, we can’t believe our luck!

  8. feeney@804

    It’s disappointing to see many people have written Labor off so early. Perhaps they are right.

    It makes it difficult for party workers to commit to working hard in the electorate and remain positive with this pervasive negative feeling about.

    Huh? What have you been reading?

    There is a lot of optimism here, notably among ALP members who have been out campaigning.

    The negativity seems to be confined to windbag keyboard warriors who would prefer to whinge than do anything positive.

    Oh… and our little Green ‘friends’ of course.

  9. GG
    Well, there has to be some reason people join it. For the life of me I cannot fathom a reason any sane, sensible person possessing at least a couple of dozen functioning cerebral cortex cells would join that zombie party.

    it is so 20th century.

  10. The so called ‘moderate’ wing of the NSW Liberals, with Malcolm as their leader, are often thought of as the more appealing of the factions. Compared with the ‘Uglies’ and the christian fundies this may be the case, but the ‘moderates’ have a dirty secret.

    The quote Bluey, they are ‘spivs’, and they are open to lobbyists – in fact many rotate between being an MP and being a door-opening lobbyist.

  11. The Canberra press gallery is as useless as they are gutless. All but rusted on Libs in Australia had noticed how useless Abbott was before the press got on that train.

    To be valuable they need to be observing that BEFORE the election not 6 months after even very liberal inclined swinging voters have made up their minds.

    At this point a useful press would be saying the Abbott / Turnbull Govt has done nothing to deserve reelection and need to make a case before then for reelection. Or if they believe it has been a good and effective govt that deserves another 3 years they should say that. To fart about their view of what will happen is less useful than us here.

    And the Malcolm love remains strong. There is nothing he has done in public life to justify this. It is beyond me, there was some clown quoted here this afternoon suggesting he had stayed above the personal politics – but utegate was very personal very nasty and based on an email that makes those old Nigerian scams look legit.

    All I can assume is that idiocy embraced most strongly in America that making money is noble and admirable of itself. In some rare cases it might be, but the general starting rule would have to be there is an inverse relationship between amassing personal wealth and nobility.

  12. [Re Adelaide, when it was settled, and land grants were being offered, I read there was a 10-15 year period where it was particularly wet.]
    It was so wet that some started growing crops in Wilpena pound.

    Being so far north of the Goyders line it was doomed. However, the story I heard was that it came to an end due to a flood destroying the road in.

  13. feeney

    [It’s disappointing to see many people have written Labor off so early. Perhaps they are right.]

    It’s uphill but people are willing them on, not ‘writing them off’.

  14. CTar1,

    Good observation.

    Certainly there is an absence of malice towards Labor this time round. This may be due to fewer Labor people continuously bagging their party as was the case last time round. It’s certainly a good reflection of Bill Shorten and his hardworking team who have worked unswervingly on unity of purpose.

  15. CTar1
    I note they have recently added pages from the Otago Daily Times from the 1920’s. Daily!

    Some riveting stories about curling in Nasby in the dead of winter, no doubt.

  16. I don’t write Labor off. I believe that the chances of a Labor victory are about 1 in 4. So in one in four alternate Universes, Labor wins this year. But we will see in due course. The odds would be worse if those working for victory gave up.

    There are many ‘black hat’ reasons that Labor has its job ahead of it. It needs a great strategy to overcome or work around them. Of course in down time, it’s OK to be Meguire Bob-ish.

    So what are the barriers:

    – memories of 2010-2013. In my opinion in those years we had goid Government and bad politics, much better than the years since, but many punters are spooked.
    – inertia / incumbency
    – media bias
    – mist power and nearly all money are on the dark side
    – in view of the last two, ‘events’ are likely to favour the incumbents
    – for the same reason, disinformation campaigns / smearing will be difficult for the good guys to counter.

    The barriers are not insurmountable. Being aware of them and planning a strategy is the way to go. If the barriers are not surmounted, Labor needs to be in a goid position to fight the next round.

    We have to be realistic.

  17. So, to get the $4.4million, Artie has to cough up who the mystery $ 700,000 donors are, and thereby potentially drop himself in a big pile of poo.
    This campaign has started splendidly for the LNP.

  18. FEENEY – Who’s written labor off? They’re going to romp it in. I’ve said that since last October. How can anyone look at polls now saying 50/50 and write them off. Life’s about knowing who to listen to, and I am not the slightest bit interested in what the Canberra Press Gallery has to say. If they had any brains they’d have real jobs.

    The only thing that worries me is Labor getting well over the line but not getting enough seats because of Kevin Bonham’s “sophomore effect”. I wish he’s stop writing about that, it’s disturbing my sleep. If it happens, I’m going to blame him.

  19. steve,

    You miss the following:

    1. Labor staying united.
    2. The Libs getting their act together.
    3. Events out of anyone’s imagination or control.

  20. sk

    Wilpena and Farina were practical demonstration that a popular climate theory of the time…’rain follows the plough’… was a bummer theory.

  21. STEVE777 – I have never, in all my many decades of life, seen a PM getting kicked around by his own party like Malcolm is. Nor have I seen a PM being so chinless. It’s an amazing sight. We don’t even need to talk about the Lib’s nasty policies. So you have throw your history books out the window. We are in uncharted territory

  22. GG

    [It’s certainly a good reflection of Bill Shorten and his hardworking team who have worked unswervingly on unity of purpose.]

    Yep. They’re ‘trucking’ along nicely.

    If not this time, then next time.

  23. K17,

    The “Sophomore” effect is like drinking NZ whites.

    They are tasteless, have no substance and the hang over lingers interminably.

    Don’t vote Lib and don’t drink NZ whites.

  24. I get the feeling Pickering has been leant on a bit this series…I mean, the PM calls an election and his feature story is about an American wrestler?

  25. SK

    The big brass handles must have required gloves on the ice.

    A blow-by-blow rendition of the tactics and strategy would, no doubt, make this alive for us.

  26. I doubt Shorten would be opposed and if he were I can see no chance of a challenger getting anywhere.

    The public contest between Shorten and Albo was the best thing that could have happened to the ALP after the 2013 defeat.

    Sure, the attention/publicity was in large part about the novelty of it and the process won’t get so much free media attention next time around.

    But going through the motions of having a real contest for the leadership and putting Shorten and whoever else puts their hand up through a public examination that’s just about the ALP can only be a good thing IMO.

    That’s if the ALP lose, of course, and I’m definitely in the camp that says the ALP are in with a good chance if they play their cards right.

  27. [713
    Greensborough Growler
    I reckon the swingers are in safe Labor seats at the moment. The sitting Member effect combined with political indifference by many voters would probably see the Libs returned atm.
    ]

    I can definitely see that being the case. The next election could well be a re-run of the 1998 election if Turnbull and the Libs run a good enough marginal seat sandbagging campaign. But that presumes a level of competence that has not been displayed thus far.

    However, I don’t think there is momentum (yet) behind either party, and that may just be enough to propel Turnbull to victory.

  28. Jakol@834 I date the increase in ALP 2pp figures back in 2013 to that leadership contest, there was an upswing in their figures and at that stage the Abbott government hadn’t done any wrecking, remember how for the first 4 weeks they did nothing.

  29. Yes Sprocket, the AEC has found the NSW liberal party guilty. Crooks, one and all. $4.4 million down will have them on the back foot funding the election campaign. Wunderbar!!

  30. [I get the feeling Pickering has been leant on a bit this series…I mean, the PM calls an election and his feature story is about an American wrestler?]

    I really like him and the show, but he is definitely from the class that seems to have the highest rate of irrational Malcolm love.

  31. [zoomster

    Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2016 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    I get the feeling Pickering has been leant on a bit this series…I mean, the PM calls an election and his feature story is about an American wrestler?]

    Pickering did some genuinely good satire on Turnbull early in the show. Well worth a squiz on Iview if you missed it.

  32. It is quite possible that, as we get close to an election, Malcolm’s support will really nosedive when the voters finally accept the fact he’s a dud and his party is just a mess, and they’ve got grit their teeth and plump for the union hack. Wishful thinking, I know. But at some point, out there in the electorate, there is going to be a big reckoning. I don’t think we’re even close to it yet. Then it’s going to get funky.

  33. [S777
    Given that he refers to the strength coming from out multicultural society I don’t think so.]

    The bit of him I heard on PM was definitely strolling down the dog whistle lane, no doubt about it.

  34. Check out the image of Sinodinos in this piece

    The Liberal Party has been refused access to $4.4m in government campaign funding after the NSW electoral commission ruled it operated a huge, illegal slush fund during the 2011 state election campaign.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/liberals-loses-44m-for-operating-an-an-illegal-slush-fund-20160323-gnpsv8#ixzz43iiQ5xhG
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  35. The Canberra Gallery is the slowest of the lagging indicators.

    They love to think they have their fingers on the pulse but if they were honest with themselves, their circular method of newsgathering (i.e. looking to each other for verification of their stories … which are never ‘scoops’) means that they are always last to notice that the train has already left the station (to throw in a few metaphors!).

    This also helps them to ignore their own laziness and feelings of self importance, even when they get it completely wrong. Remember Gillard’s misogyny speech?

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