Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull records the first negative net approval rating of his prime ministership, while voting intention is little changed on a fortnight ago.

The latest Newspoll result is very slightly better for the Coalition than the last, recording them with a 51-49 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 43%, Labor is down one to 34%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. The leadership ratings provide Malcolm Turnbull’s first net negative approval result, with approval down five to 39% and disapproval up three to 44%. For Bill Shorten, the movement is in favour of undecided, with approval down two to 28% and disapproval down three to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-21 to 52-21. The poll also finds 55% expecting the Coalition to win the election, compared with 25% for Labor; 54% rating Turnbull more capable of managing the economy, compared with 20% for Shorten; and 45% rating Turnbull more capable of managing tax reform, compared with 25% for Shorten. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online surveying from a larger than usual sample of 2049.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): For the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, a poll records Labor with a lead on two-party preferred, albeit a very narrow one. The fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS from a sample of 2948, has Labor moving from a 53-47 deficit to a lead of 50.5-49.5, on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures of two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down three points to 40%, Labor is up three-and-a-half to 33%, and the Greens are up one to 14%.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is still at 50-50, but both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, and Labor by two to 38% – while the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions find 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know. Another question finds no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question interestingly asks what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggest strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,662 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Most interesting about the questions on what Abbott should be doing in parliament. Most popular answer is that he should resign immediately.

  3. @JD

    Agree completely, but they’ll sooner start whinging about the doom and gloom of the end of the construction business with fines like that.

  4. Shea, answering your own questions like that reminds me of the recent John Oliver bit on Trumps Wall, where Trump says something like
    ‘it doesnt matter how big the Mexicans ladders are, when they get to the top, how are they going to get down?…. With a rope I suppose.’
    then he quickly changes the subject. V funny piece of television….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzOYtFK4FDQ

  5. [AshGhebranious
    AshGhebranious – ‏@AshGhebranious

    Business Council of Australia say lack of ABCC has seen construction costs soar. When asked to show figures, they declined. Hmmm #auspol]

  7. Before anyone pulls me up I will say that I am aware that some journos really do put their life on the line.
    Those reporting from war zones and other dangerous areas I have great respect for.
    Im talking about the ones who literally risk their lives to inform the rest of us, not those who ‘courageously’ post a pic on facebook or join a twitter hashtag in ‘support’ of real journalists.
    Like we saw with the Peter Greste situation.
    It is beyond shameful that these useless hacks try and piggyback off the courage and integrity of others while lazing about writing click bait articles from the comfort of their offices.

  8. “Continuity with change”, a bit like “controlled incontinence”, is simply a semantic joke. Pity the Libs aren’t smart enough to realise this. Maybe the idea was planted by a Labor mole!

  9. TPOF – After a severe case of wobbly knees, I’m back on board. I think that when the Senate reconvenes on 18 April, Labor WILL and SHOULD frustrate the LNP’S attempts to have the ABCC Bill and a Supply Bill even debated.
    Malcolm has run around claiming he’s a genius by using s7 of the Constitution. Labor (if it gets support from the Greens and enough cross-benchers) should embarrass the hell out of him by foiling his scheme.
    The best way, in my opinion is for the Senate to reconvene and:
    1. Adjourn until 10 May 2016 (the previous time) then
    2. Reconvene on 10 May 2016 and debate the Marriage Equality Bill etc until the relevant time expires on 11 May (just to twist the knife)

    Malcolm has thrown down the gauntlet. Labor must pick it up and, like I said, make him look like a total f…wit. I don’t know how Hartcher will cope if that happens.

    Further, I’m sure that’s exactly what Labor will do (if it has enough support)

  10. [Joanna Mather
    Joanna Mather – Verified account ‏@JoannaMather

    BREAKING: #Greens will not support a company tax cut for big business if announced in the federal budget #auspol
    7:57 PM – 21 Mar 2016
    1 RETWEET1 LIKE]

  11. There are 14+ weeks to July 2. We can expect another 8 or so polls from each pollster company, more or less, I guess ,,,,, perhaps another 20-25 polls in all???? A fair number anyway.

    If the slow and steady trend of the last month continues, Turnbull isn’t just in electoral strife …… he’ll be in the middle of leadershit.

    I think the chances of him turning the poll trend around are not great. It’s been widely discussed here that he has no strong leadership or policy skills.

    And if the declining trend in his personal popularity continues (remember Newspoll this week have a net sat of -5 ….. more now dislike than like him) then July 2 is a very long way away for PollyWaffle.

    Don’t be surprised if a challenge to his leadership appears on the horizon by the end of April.

    I don’t think a Shorten v Turnbull election is a 100% for sure event at this stage.

    Because the Waffler is not going to improve ….. he’s only way forward is down.

  12. Calculated using the Primary Votes from that Essential poll, the TPP would be approx. 50.6-49.4 to Labor.

    i.e.,
    (100/101(38 + (10*8.3) + (1*0.4633) + (9*0.47))) + 0.14 = 50.63 to Labor

  13. di Natale is up on Sky, wasting everyone’s time about some Big Thing or other that the Greens can do stuff-all about.

    All noise, black skivvies and sheer uselessness.

  17. VICTORIA – I wonder if Malcolm will be allowed to even see the budget before it is delivered. I also wonder if it will play to ScoMo’s conservative base rather than the wider electorate!

  19. Ben Eltham
    Ben Eltham – ‏@beneltham

    Like @timdunlop, I don’t think Turnbull is bold. He’s desperate. Me in @newmatilda on a big gamble for the Coalition https://newmatilda.com/2016/03/22/without-a-policy-agenda-turnbulls-double-dissolution-threat-is-just-more-sound-and-fury/ …

    Lacking Big Ideas, Turnbull Opts For More Games – And The Pundits Love It – New Matilda

    ANALYSIS: With Tony Abbott stalking, and Bill Shorten growing into his role, Turnbull’s bare policy agenda has left the PM vulnerable. Ignore the insiders, the double-dissolution gamble is a desper…
    View on web

  20. As per above link

    [The Canberra press gallery has been beside itself with glee at Turnbull’s tactics. Fairfax’s Peter Hartcher gushed that “Malcolm Turnbull has transformed his prime ministership at one stroke.” Mark Kenny reached for his phrase book: “In one fell swoop, the Prime Minister has taken control of a sea of floating imponderables.” On the ABC, Annabel Crabb lauded it as a “classically Turnbullian manoeuvre.” Michelle Grattan called it “confrontationist but canny.” Sean Kelly repeated the “bold and audacious” consensus. A notable exception was Tim Dunlop.

    Not for the first time, the press gallery is wrong. As Dunlop argued today, Turnbull’s decision to call on an early election is not bold. It’s desperate.]

  22. Just looking at the Oz website. This morning there was some ambivalence about supporting Turnbull. Now it currently seems to be full steam ahead for Turnbull and Abbott needs to vanish into thin air for the good of the party. Even Malcolm Farr is now pushing that line.

    It just shows how Murdoch’s hacks are little more than robots churning out what they are programmed to write.

  23. How can idiots like Frydenberg seriously call the ABCC an “important economic reform”? If there was any need for this legislation it would be a law & order reform and productivity would be a side effect.
    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2016/s4429116.htm

    DAVID PEETZ: Well the originates with a consultant’s report that purported to show a big change in the costs facing general construction and housing construction, and it turned out that this was a spreadsheet error.

    And once you remove the spreadsheet error, there was really no major movement in productivity over the period of reform identified by the consultant, but the number that they generated has been used repeatedly by the same consultant over and over again.

    We have examined the data behind the productivity claims and found that they were erroneous, probably due to incorrect transcription, and that the source data indicated no relative productivity gains. The boost to GDP, savings to the CPI and national welfare gains in each of the Econtech reports, estimated as they were ‘from the recent closing of the cost gap between commercial building and domestic housing’, had no basis as there was no ‘closing of the cost gap’. Despite being made aware of this, the ABCC and its consultant, Econtech, stuck to the original claims about the size of productivity and welfare gains from the use of coercive powers. The errors (‘anomalies’) in the 2007 report might be dismissed as an ‘honest mistake’, but can the later insistence on not revising findings be so easily dismissed? Claimed productivity gains from the use of coercive powers are also not discernible in official ABS or Productivity Commission data.

    http://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/handle/10072/35623/65996_1.pdf?sequence=1

  26. Boerwar @1512

    [di Natale is up on Sky, wasting everyone’s time about some Big Thing or other that the Greens can do stuff-all about.

    All noise, black skivvies and sheer uselessness.]

    Not if one is trying to sell skivvies

  31. “”If Turnbull loses I’d assume Abbott would be a shoe-in for the Leader of the Opposition.””

    Hey, the pay is better for LOTO than a back bench in government!.

  33. “Spreadsheet error”

    “Incorrect transcription”

    Hopefully nothing like that happens with the budget figures in the rush to get them out early 😉

  35. [ ALP primary up 2% to 38.
    Up 4.6% (ish) since election ]

    If the ALP primary creeps up to 40% expect depression and despair in the LNP ranks. 🙂

    [ Hopefully nothing like that happens with the budget figures in the rush to get them out early 😉 ]

    The Libs had better hope that the APS people involved in brining the Budget together and printing it are NOT ones pissed off at how the Govt has treated the APS over pay and conditions over the last couple of years. 🙂 Leaks anyone??

  36. Labor’s PV in the last month has gone 35-37-36-38.

    Nice steady rising trend. Other pollsters not picking up the improvement yet, but I’d hazard a guess that quite a few disillusioned Labor voters who have been parking their votes in the others/don’t know category will start coming back home. Still work to do as I think Labor will need at least a 39 on election day, but heading in the right direction with plenty of time to build up as they put the torch to Turnbull’s belly.

  38. BCA are desperate to hide the cost breakdown of construction.

    GHD found Australian cost increases were comparable to similar overseas countries. The productivity commission report found..
    [International comparisons of costs between Australia and counterpart countries are largely inconclusive, but do not support some recent claims (such as those made in BCA 2013) of very large cost differentials]

    Construction productivity problems are due to;
    1. a paucity of talent in project and company management in the sector (partly due to limited size of the sector)
    2. dodgy early decision making in infrastructure options, direction and contracts.
    3. not enough capital investment in labour (eg workers using better machines).
    4. A below optimum mix of public/private involvement. Either the contracts are not well set up or simply (in some examples) the government should just manage and build it themselves.

    http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/infrastructure/report#media-release

    As for wages; they make up a fraction of the costs. This is old but enlightening….
    [Capital costs for those major projects for which data were available represented about 40 per cent of the unit cost of the final product. Erection costs were around half of capital costs. Labour costs accounted for around half of erection costs.]
    That’s total labour costs….. wages are only part of this.

  39. Dunlop has a fair point that Turnbull is desperate.

    My take is a bit different. When he began as PM in a blaze of glory and flushed poll success it seemed to me that after the honeymoon period his critical time would be the budget. Because whatever he did in the budget would create fatal enemies.

    If he did not continue with the Hockey/Abbott attacks on Health/ Education and pensions etc he would earn the wrath of the RWNJs. If he did continue with the Hockey/Abbott farce then his claim to “fresh economic leadership” would be resonatingly empty.

    So holding a DD is Turnbull’s best chance to try to pull a few swifties (introduce some sort of socially progressive agenda) over the RWNJs whilst keeping them vaguely in check. Then, if/when he wins the DD he can claim a mandate to implement the socially progressive agenda.

    This is desperate. The RWNJ do not care for Turnbull. They see him as a Trojan horse in their ranks and don’t trust him any further than they can kick him. My prediction is that in the long election campaign ahead the RWNJ will demonstrate their destructive powers to great effect. Abbott’s tweets are just warning shots across Turnbull’s bow. He would love it for Turnbull to lose the election and is delusional enough to believe he might then take over as the once and future PM after another stint as the world’s most successful opposition leader.

  40. “” then take over as the once and future PM after another stint as the world’s most successful opposition leader.””

    He would love that job, he was in his element, ALP destroyer!.

  41. Good afternoon all,

    Interesting results in Essential re the reintroduction of the ABCC.

    I have often thought the more telling question (s) on such issues would be how important do you rate it as a issue and is it a vote changer for you.

    I know the majority of polling shows SSM is supported by the majority of voters but it would also be interesting to see the above two questions asked as well.

    I would vote yes for SSM if polled but it would not be a vote changer for me.

    Please all the pro SSM posters do not hyperventilate.I am using my own thoughts as a example of how misleading yes no votes on many issues can be.

    I have always found polling which ranks issues on importance far more enlightening.

    Just my take.

    Cheers.

  42. Certainly agree Windhover that the budget is critical. Always believed it would probably take until the Budget for Labor to get into a winning position. Turnbull has always faced the problem of too many contradictory requirements to please the disparate groups he needs for support. He can’t please everyone, so he ends up pleasing no one.

    I’m sure if Turnbull had something actually interesting or popular to put out there he would be doing that right now, rather than pulling the trigger on the starter’s gun. Imagine if he’d released some great policy yesterday and got on the front foot over that and then pulled the Section 5 ace out of his pocket a week or two before April 18.

    Now that would have been impressive. But he had to do something, ANYTHING, to combat the drift and dithering. It was desperate, and if he doesn’t have something substantial to follow it up with real soon the desperation will be obvious.

  45. K17
    I think Essential had an ALP bias back then. Week before election they had primaries of 35-44 when result was 33.4-45.5

    But I think they changed over their sample pool since the election. Not sure what their bias would be estimated at now.

  46. [I have often thought the more telling question (s) on such issues would be how important do you rate it as a issue and is it a vote changer for you.]

    65% don’t want it, don’t care, or don’t know. I think that gives you a pretty good indication of how important it is.

    >50% of Lib voters said they support ABCC, but most of those are just cheering for their team. If Turnbull wasn’t desperately clinging to it they’d be no more interested in it than anyone else.

    It’s just further proof of the desperation of Turnbull’s position. Before Christmas all the media smarties were pronouncing that Malcolm would produce a comprehensive tax reform package because that’s the kinda guy he is – forward thinking and brave.

    But what he really is is a big talking bully. He can punch down, but if you put some pressure on him he goes to water. So no tax reform agenda, no economic reform agenda, no social policy reform agenda. Just the warmed up left overs of the Abbott years and a desperate need to get to the polls before everyone twigs.

  49. davidwh @1339:

    [Turnbull’s is in real trouble. He could lead the Coalition to an election win if he only had to overcome the Opposition however it is very clear the Coalition far right together with the conservative media is lined up against him and hell bent on destroying Turnbull. I doubt he can win against both forces.

    It seems clear to me that the conservatives with Abbott as their “hero” will be happy to see the Turnbull government fail to ensure the long-term power base of the conservatives.

    When they do perhaps the Liberal Party should consider a name change to properly reflect what they will become.

    It’s pretty depressing.]

    I’m feeling many emotions about this, but depression certainly isn’t one of them!

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