Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull records the first negative net approval rating of his prime ministership, while voting intention is little changed on a fortnight ago.

The latest Newspoll result is very slightly better for the Coalition than the last, recording them with a 51-49 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 43%, Labor is down one to 34%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. The leadership ratings provide Malcolm Turnbull’s first net negative approval result, with approval down five to 39% and disapproval up three to 44%. For Bill Shorten, the movement is in favour of undecided, with approval down two to 28% and disapproval down three to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-21 to 52-21. The poll also finds 55% expecting the Coalition to win the election, compared with 25% for Labor; 54% rating Turnbull more capable of managing the economy, compared with 20% for Shorten; and 45% rating Turnbull more capable of managing tax reform, compared with 25% for Shorten. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online surveying from a larger than usual sample of 2049.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): For the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, a poll records Labor with a lead on two-party preferred, albeit a very narrow one. The fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS from a sample of 2948, has Labor moving from a 53-47 deficit to a lead of 50.5-49.5, on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures of two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down three points to 40%, Labor is up three-and-a-half to 33%, and the Greens are up one to 14%.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is still at 50-50, but both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, and Labor by two to 38% – while the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions find 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know. Another question finds no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question interestingly asks what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggest strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,662 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. The meme is still that Turnbull will win the election. The soft support continues to peel off. Meanwhile most people remain disengaged.

  2. Everything I said about Shorten so far has proven right, and I reckon he will do for Turnbull and probably Morrison too and has a damned good chance of winning the next election.

  3. Puff @2: I’m quite glad that I didn’t join the chorus of “Replace him!” early in his leadership. He always looked like a workhorse to me – someone whose greatest strength as a leader is self-discipline and hard work.

    Compare and contrast to Malcolm Turnbull, the ultimate show-pony.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’m finding it very hard at the moment to find many worthwhile links.

    The Liberals do attract some lovely people!
    Speaking of which . . . (Google the string below)
    The government is in a whole lot of trouble with much of the APS. But industrial relations has always been the Liberals’ strong suit.
    Michelle Grattan on Labor’s point that cutting penalty rates will gurt the economy without helping business.
    7-Eleven is still at it!
    So trickle-down economics is still the weapon of choice for the government.
    Tom Switzer asks who Donald Trump reminds us of.
    And Trump continues to refuse to condemn the violence at his rallies. What a disgusting piece of work he is!
    Di Natale tries to recover some ground by lashing out at Turnbull’s “shambolic government”.
    ASIC warns corporates to clean up their culture.


    This is significant. Here’s Sam Dastyari making the very point that Ratsak, Doyley and others on this blog have been making: the Senate can, quite legitimately on 10 and 11 May 2012 keep debating the ABCC bill and an appropriations bill and wind down the clock. I bet the senate could even, if it wanted, debate something else (e.g. Marriage Equality! That would be funny!) and delay debating those bills until, say, 12 May.

    Malcolm, you fool, you have been warned.

  6. BK

    What’s the fuss about lobbyists/senate shenanigans? Sounds interesting.
    (No matter what I do, icognito gives me sub page)

  7. lizzie
    The Liberal Party has erupted in a furious brawl over the role of ­lobbyists in selecting Senate ­candidates after a “farcical” vote on the weekend that defied Malcolm Turnbull, sought to undermine a federal minister and cost retired general Jim Molan a seat in parliament. In a test of money and power, party officials allowed lobbyists Michael Photios and Nick Campbell to step in at the last minute to help decide the NSW Liberal candidates for the Senate at the next election, sparking claims of “corruption” in the process.

  8. lizzie
    double click on the string to highlight it, right mouse click and Search Google for . . ” and the article will be found.

  9. [The rallies come as Parliamentary Budget Office calculations show closing down offshore centres and moving asylum seekers to the mainland for processing in the community would save the federal government $2.9 billion over four years.

    However, changes to the arrival numbers of asylum seekers by boat would significantly alter the financial impact, the office says.]

  10. [Indonesia has stressed Australia is not a threat and it is grateful for Australia’s communication over its massive military modernisation program over the next 20 years.

    In an interview ahead of a visit by Defence Minister Marise Payne to Jakarta on Sunday, Indonesia’s Director General for Strategic Defence thanked Australia for sharing the contents of its Defence white paper.

    “We are not only a neighbour country but we should be brothers,” Major-General Yoedhi Swastanto said.

    “So for us Australia is not a threat. We don’t have big issues.]–indonesian-defence-official-20160320-gnmhu5.html


    [Our focus must move from episodes of care (think of the single consultation, followed by the admission, then treatment, and then discharge) to take in the entire patient journey – each one different – throughout the complex care environment.

    Some countries are well ahead of Australia here. Those with rapidly ageing populations (Japan, Canada, Switzerland) offer a glimpse of our future. Hospital beds are being cut back in favour of day procedures and community healthcare. Japan aims to move from 8500 to 7000 hospitals within 15 years. All three countries are creating more retirement home beds and aged-care facilities and expanding geriatrics training. In Canada and Japan primary health services are being reorganised into communities of physicians to improve co-ordination and coverage and reduce costs.

    Baby Boomers are the key to change. They’re the most educated, the richest and most demanding group. Ever. They want their painful knees fixed, heart disease managed, and cancer put into remission. Immediately. At their convenience, not the health system’s. Even if it’s public healthcare they’re receiving.]

  12. Hugh White on the submarine deal:

    [An alliance of the kind Tokyo clearly seeks would mortgage Australia’s relationship with China, and indeed our entire future in Asia, to the troubled future of China-Japan relations. This is, quite obviously, not in our interests.]

    A statement of the bleeding obvious which should be coming from our MSM if they could drop the Coalition sycophancy for one minute. Only a drop kick like Tony Abbott would see strategic value in getting into bed with Japan.

  13. [The Liberal Party has erupted in a furious brawl over the role of ­lobbyists in selecting Senate ­candidates after a “farcical” vote on the weekend that defied Malcolm Turnbull, sought to undermine a federal minister and cost retired general Jim Molan a seat in parliament. In a test of money and power, party officials allowed lobbyists Michael Photios and Nick Campbell to step in at the last minute to help decide the NSW Liberal candidates for the Senate at the next election, sparking claims of “corruption” in the process.]

    Ho Ho Ho. Sucks to be Jim Moylan. And after having given the Libs such leal service for so long.

  14. morning all

    Radio newsbreak

    Reported Newspoll.
    Morrison to get rid of 2% deficit levy on high income earners
    And industrial action today by medicare, centrelink and ATO

  15. [Prof. Peter Doherty ‏@ProfPCDoherty · 13h13 hours ago

    Mr Hunt commits $3.8 million to >monitoring of barrier reef. Argument we don’t need CSIRO earth systems science becomes even more moronic!]

  16. Underestimate Sam Dastyari at your peril. I have always had a lot of respect for Persians ever since I got a book as a little girl about Ali Baba and the 40 Thieves.

    When you think you’ve got them in a squirrel grip, whoosh! they turn to smoke and appear somewhere else with a Cheshire Cat-like smile on their faces. Holding YOUR jewels in their hand. 😉

  17. lizzie

    Remember when Hunt JBishop and ofhers cracked the sads when Obama highlighted the danger the Barrier Reef was in? Now all of a suddent the reef is in danger, this mob are truly pathetic

  18. [Malcolm Farr ‏@farrm51 · 4m4 minutes ago

    SkyNews ought consider show pairing Kristina Keneally & Peta Credlin. One Labor. One Liberal. One was Premier. One was Prime Minister]

  19. lizzie

    [Mr Hunt commits $3.8 million]

    Truly massive expenditure, committed after another large section of reef is well and truly baked.

    We can afford to spend tens of billions on weapons systems that may or may not be effective on a threat that may or may not eventuate, but we spend tea money on monitoring our greatest certain threat – climate change.

  20. Morrison to get rid of 2% deficit levy on high income earners

    Just. Think. About. That.

    The Treasurer of this nation, with Budget Deficit doubled under his government’s watch, and with multinational companies thumbing their noses at the very concept of being good corporate citizens and paying tax in the country that generates their Croesus-like levels of wealth…wants to reduce the amount of tax paid by those of us in this country who make the most money!

    I know the Liberal Party, with Malcolm the Rich as their avatar, like to peddle the myth, borrowed from America, of the Australian Dream, where any guy from a broken home can make it to become Prime Minister and very wealthy, but to craft a mythos for us all to aspire to with that as the talisman and to make policy advantaging THAT group of people who have made it, when the majority of the 25 million of us will not, is political insanity of the Trump l’oeil kind!

  21. [Katharine Murphy ‏@murpharoo · 9m9 minutes ago

    Even by Hunt’s standards that CEFC passage of the interview was pretty ludicrous @RNBreakfast

    Gabrielle Chan Verified account 
    Greg Hunt says it is still coalition policy to scrap #CEFC.]

  22. lizzie,

    ’d like to give my opinion of Hunt, but it’s unprintable.

    Just call him Greg the Lying Hunt like I do and you’ll get the point across. 😉

  23. One of the saddest things I have read for some time was an article – I think yesterday – on the fears and mental resilience of kids of various ages. A major fear of the one 10 year old quoted was terrorism. Not climate change. Not her mum dying of cancer. Terrorism.

    I wonder who we can blame for that?

  24. Arther Sinodinos –

    [“Putting money into the hands of consumers obviously encourages more spending and disposable income and has good incentive effects. But cutting company taxes also has good effects,” Senator Sinodinos said.

    “It can encourage investment, it can encourage higher productivity.

    There are lots of studies that show that that ultimately leads to higher GDP in the economy and higher wages for workers.”]

    Arthur omits to mention that there are also lots of studies that show that the Reagan era ‘Trickle Down’ idea is just bull shit.

  25. [ No satisfaction for Turnbull: Newspoll

    For the first time during his reign as prime minister, there are more voters unhappy than happy with the performance of Malcolm Turnbull.

    ….Newspoll…..found 44 per cent of those surveyed were dissatisfied with Mr Turnbull’s performance (up 3 points in the past fortnight), compared with 39 per cent who were satisfied (down five points).

    A Fairfax/Ipsos poll published last week also found a drop in Mr Turnbull’s approval rating but to a much smaller extent.

    The Newspoll also found that Coalition was slightly ahead 51 to 49 in the two-party preferred measure, up from two consecutive deadlocked results.]

  26. Interested to hear what William thinks of MetaPoll, as they’re supposedly conducting their own N > 2000 polls and folding that into their results as well.

  27. I am almost through my 8-hour recording of the Senate up to 4 am Friday. One of the issues that came up was that above the line the Senate ballot paper will instruct voters to fill in at least six boxes, but fewer than six will still be a formal vote. The act makes it illegal to mislead voters, so is it illegal to advocate voting just ‘1’? Whether it is or not affects how candidates can run their campaigns. ALP and other senators literally tried for hours to get an answer from Cormann, but he always evaded it.

    I would say that the ballot paper itself is misleading. It implies that numbering fewer than six boxes is an informal vote, but it’s not.

  28. No doubt that Dastyari thinks he’s the cleverest thing on the planet. But he sounds like he wants to walk a fine line: “oh yes, we’ll pass supply bills, but if the government stuffs it all up and they don’t get through in time, it won’t be our fault and we’ll just laugh at them.”

    What about “the Australian people deserve better than the total chaos they have now. Bring on the DD!”

    Oh, that’s right, we can’t say that. We’ve just spent the past month whinging about what a disaster a DD under the new voting rules will be for democracy. So now we’re sort of duty bound not to call an election but to back out new best friend Bob Day in his High Court challenge.

    Perhaps all this Senate nonsense is going to turn out to be a bit of a distraction. The Libs are on the ropes, and now is the time to go in for the kill. Not faff around about non-issues.

    The economy seems to be picking up ATM. Come October, stopping MT from having his DD might end up looking like a missed opportunity.

    But Sam will still be able to smile and think about what a clever manipulator of Senate procedure he is.

    PS: Ali Baba was an Arab, not a Persian.

  29. lizzie,
    My son, the writer, was up early. He inspires me. He wakes my brain up. 🙂

    He wrote a poem the other day in Iambic Septameter about a society where the dust of the dead was a prized possession held and traded by a necrotic wealthy gentry who held onto power with a vice-like grip.

    He also writes a blog about computery stuff and was explaining to me today that someone has devloped an Operating System that behaves like an App and just lives in the Cloud instead of bloating your computer.

    So, Neurons going bling! bling! bling! this morning just to keep up! No doubt I’ll run out of mental puff soon enough and my posts will go back to being unimaginative, confused and lightweight. 😀

  30. I think Hunt is my least favorite Minister because he has no integrity.
    Abbott and the others if his kind are acting in their nature, consistent with their personality.
    Hunt is another case. That is also why I think Turnbull is a worse PM then Abbott, but because he isn’t any good, but that he doesn’t stand up to the right wing.

  31. [Katharine Murphy ‏@murpharoo · 14m14 minutes ago

    If the government doesn’t intend to put the abolition of the CEFC up at a joint sitting then someone needs to say this, on the record.]

  32. meher baba,

    So now we’re sort of duty bound not to call an election but to back out new best friend Bob Day in his High Court challenge.

    Where does it say that Labor are backig Day Leyonhjelm in their HC Challenge to the new Senate Voting Rules? All the media on the weekend showed a plethora of Minor Parties being in the frame but not Labor.

    I’d say Labor are interested in the outcome, especially considering what Triton has said above about the questions they asked but did not receive answers to, however I wouldn’t say that equated to Labor ‘backing’ the HC challenge to the new rules.

    And, yes, I knew Ali Baba & the 40 Thieves were Arabian but the book I got had lots of stories in it and some were about Persia. I just couldn’t remember the names. So a bit of truthiness. 😉

  33. Thanks for posting the Sinodinos quote
    It can encourage investment, it can encourage higher productivity.
    Sure it doesn’t discourage or prevent these things, but you could also say
    It can encourage unicorns, it can encourage higher elves.

  34. meher baba @ 41,

    The economy seems to be picking up ATM. Come October, stopping MT from having his DD might end up looking like a missed opportunity.

    Or, with better policies about what to do with the nation’s wealth the electorate will choose Labor to enact their policies.

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