The Coalition’s downward odyssey in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate enters its sixth week, although the movement on voting intention is slight this time, since all three pollsters this week (Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential) essentially repeated the results of their previous polls. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift has been enough to bag Labor gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Queensland. There is even more encouragement for Labor from the leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull is tanking rapidly, albeit that his head remains above the waterline in positive net approval. Bill Shorten’s trendlines are pointing northward, although he still has a very long way to go. Kevin Bonham had the following to say about the Newspoll leadership ratings, a day before they were corroborated by Essential Research:
Turnbull is still far more popular than Bill Shorten, but he’s dropped 35 points in the four polls taken since last November. This loss of 35 points in three and a half months is exceeded only by Paul Keating in 1993 (43 points in just over three months), John Howard in 1996 (36 points in six weeks) and Howard again in 2001 (38 points in six weeks). The 1996 Howard example comes with a big asterisk too, because Howard was falling from the career-high +53 netsat he had jumped 24 points to reach in the immediate aftermath of the Port Arthur massacre. It is not at all normal then for a PM to lose this much popularity this fast, but then again it is not that normal for them to have it in the first place.
Electoral matters:
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review sees the two possibilities as the much-touted July 2 double dissolution, or a normal election in mid-August, either of which would leave time for a same-sex marriage plebiscite to be held by the end of the year. He also relates that the government is “exploring the logistics” of bringing down the budget on May 3, rather than the scheduled date of May 10, which is one day before the deadline for calling a double dissolution expires. Among other things, this would allow the government time to attempt to get its legislation reinstating the powers of the Australian Building and Construction Commission through the Senate. Its reject would confirm its currently contestable status as a double dissolution trigger, which the Greens sought to retain by having the government agree not to reintroduce it during the current session as part of its deal to legislate for Senate electoral reform.
• Amid talk of a possible early state election, Queenslanders go to the polls next Saturday to vote on a referendum proposal that would render such a thing impossible, by introducing fixed four-year terms with elections set for the last week in October. The referendum has been timed to coincide with local government elections, which also means that the big partisan prize of the Brisbane lord mayoralty is up for grabs. According to a Galaxy poll of 540 voters conducted for the Nine Network, Liberal National Party incumbent Graham Quirk holds a 53-47 two-party lead over Labor’s Tim Harding. This compares with his winning margin of 68.3-31.7 at the 2012 election, which was held a few weeks after Anna Bligh’s government had been decimated at the polls. The Galaxy poll also found Brisbane voters favouring the referendum proposal by 48% to 35%, but Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail, offers that “regional Queenslanders are expected to be much more sceptical towards the proposal”.
Preselection matters:
• The Liberal preselection to anoint a successor to Victorian Senator Michael Ronaldson has produced a surprise winner in James Paterson, the 28-year-old deputy executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs. Paterson will shortly fill the casual vacancy to be created by Ronaldson’s imminent retirement, and will head the party’s ticket in the event of a normal half-Senate election. It had been generally expected that the position would go to Jane Hume, a superannuation policy adviser who had the influential backing of Michael Kroger, president of the party’s state branch. Hume had earlier won preselection for the number three position on a Coalition ticket that allocates second place to the Nationals. Also in the race was Amanda Millar, who filled a casual vacancy for Northern Victoria region in the state upper house in August 2013 but failed to win re-election in November 2014; and Karina Okotel, a legal aid lawyer.
• Labor’s preselection in Fremantle will be conducted over two days on Sunday, when a ballot of local members determining 25% of the total result will be held, and Monday, when the rest is to be determined at a meeting of state executive. The two nominees are Josh Wilson, chief-of-staff to outgoing member Melissa Parke and the local deputy mayor, and Chris Brown, a Maritime Union of Australia organiser and former wharfie. Observers say that Wilson will dominate the local party ballot, but factional arrangements are likely to tip the balance in Brown’s favour at state executive. The winner will face recently preselected Greens candidate Kate Davis, solicitor for tenants’ rights organisation Tenancy WA.
• Tim Hammond has been preselected without opposition to succeed Alannah MacTiernan as Labor’s candidate in Perth. Hammond is a barrister specialising in representing asbestos disease victims, one of the party’s national vice-presidents, and a member of the Right. It appears that the Brand preselection will go the same way, with no other contenders standing in the way of Madeleine King, chief operating officer of the international policy think tank Perth USAsia Centre. Other confirmed Labor candidates in winnable seats are Matt Keogh in Burt, a commercial lawyer and president of the WA Law Society, who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election in September; Anne Azza Aly in Cowan, a counter-terrorism expert at Curtin University and founder of People Against Violent Extremism (as seen here last week in Seat of the Week); Tammy Solonec in Swan, an indigenous lawyer; and Bill Leadbetter in Hasluck, executive director of an obstetric practice and occasional history academic. Aly and Solonec both have a past with the Greens, Aly having been endorsed as a candidate for the 2007 federal election before withdrawing from the race, and Solonec having held an unwinnable spot on an upper house ticket at the 2013 state election.
• The New South Wales Liberals are preparing to determine their Parramatta preselection through a trial plebiscite of local party members of more than two years’ standing. A push to make such ballots the norm was rejected at the party’s state conference in October, to the chagrin of the religious Right faction in particular, but a compromise deal backed by Mike Baird has allowed for trials to be held in a small number of federal and state electorates over the coming years. Kylie Adoranti of the Parramatta Advertiser reports 278 local members are eligible to participate, together with the members of the state executive and further representatives of the state council and the Prime Minister, collectively accounting for 28 votes. Nominees include current Parramatta councillor Jean Pierre Abood; former Parramatta councillor Andrew Bide; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who was the party’s candidate in 2010, and also sought preselection unsuccessfully in 2013; and Felicity Finlay, who also contested preselection in 2013, and appears to be a school teacher.
• Labor’s national executive has taken over the preselection process in the New South Wales seats of Barton and Hunter, initiating a process that will be resolved on Friday. The beneficiary in Barton will be the state’s outgoing Deputy Opposition Leader, Linda Burney. National executive will also determine her successor in the state seat of Canterbury, where a by-election now looms. In Hunter, Joel Fitzgibbon is to be confirmed as candidate for a seat that effectively merges his existing seat of Hunter with Charlton, which has been decommissioned in the redistribution. The intervention enforces a deal in which Hunter remains secure for the Right, who have been frozen out in Barton by the endorsement of the Left-aligned Burney.
• Labor in New South Wales also has normal preselection processes in train for ten other seats, including two in the Hunter region: Shortland, where Jill Hall is retiring, and Paterson, which the redistribution has transformed from Liberal to marginal Labor. Shortland looks set to be the new home for Pat Conroy, whose existing seat of Charlton has, as noted above, been rolled together with Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter. Conroy says he insisted on facing a rank-and-file ballot. Nominees in Paterson include Meryl Swanson, a local radio presenter, and Robert Roseworne, decribed by the ABC as a “Port Stephens community campaigner”. Both preselections are scheduled to be resolved the weekend after next.
• Nationals MP John Cobb has announced he will not contest the next election, having been member for Parkes from 2001 to 2007, and Calare henceforth. The front-runner to succeed him as Nationals candidate in Calare appears to be Andrew Gee, member for the state seat of Orange, although media reports suggest opponents may include Wellington councillor Alison Conn, Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway, Orange councillor Scott Munro, Bathurst mayor Gary Rush, Lithgow councillor Peter Pilbeam and Bathurst region farmer Paul Blanch, who was the Liberal candidate in 2004.
What can one say?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-10/pro-gun-us-woman-jamie-gilt-shot-in-back-by-4yo-son/7235802
Don’t even know what a random word generator is.
[loopholes are more likely in ‘simple’ legislation]
Cant legislation can be complex AND understandable (with some help)?
Trog Sorrenson@147
A few like Mark Dreyfus add value, some like Andrew Leigh have another string to their bow, but most are fairly useless. And yes, the Liberal Lady Lawyers are generally quite nasty.
Parliament employs lawyers to draft legislation. This dramatically reduces any reasonable requirement for lawyers as MPs.
Simon Katich
[ You are just baiting the lawyers now. ]
I find 1080 works well.
zoomster
Clerks are there to draft the legislation. They are the ones that advise on loopholes and the like. Lawyer as MP not required
Player One
[I find 1080 works well.]
I was going to post the exact same comment, but thought I might get a visit from William.
BK
[ What can one say?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-10/pro-gun-us-woman-jamie-gilt-shot-in-back-by-4yo-son/7235802 ]
“I’ve had it up to here with strained apple … take this!“
If only someone else with a gun was there to protect her!
P1
😀
[Without our infestation of lawyers in parliament we might get simpler, easier to understand laws without so many loopholes.]
Lol lol lol lol
If you want the Parliament to reflect the population you’d need a lot more lambies and muirs, but I’m pretty sure we are changing the rules to get rid of them.
guytaur
You’re seriously trying to suggest that a parliamentary clerk is better at law than a barrister with decades of practical experience?
I agree there are too many lawyers in Parliament, btw.
Trog
[ … thought I might get a visit from William. ]
He would probably prefer trapping them and releasing them back into the wild. But I don’t think that’s fair on the other animals.
While we are on the ‘lets limit lawyers’ (and I totally agree), what is with the influx of former police and military personnel into Parliament and positions of power? Probably 0.01 percent of Australians serve in uniform, yet we end up with military Governors General, Governors, Australians of the Year, MPs etc…
Are we at war? Is it 1830s colonial Sydney?
WWP
Wrong. Party preselection is the problem not reforming the vote in the Senate
[What can one say?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-10/pro-gun-us-woman-jamie-gilt-shot-in-back-by-4yo-son/7235802%5D
If this kids got the guts to shoot his mother in the back when he’s 4, you can be sure that no one will fuck with him when he’s 24.
I don’t think we should let little incidents like this get in the way of training kids to look after themselves.
zoomster
The best people at drafting Acts of Parliament are the Parliamentary draftsmen (and women). That said, if a barrister or solicitor or academic has particular expertise in an area of law, they might know a lot more about any potential risks in the way a law is drafted.
zoomster
Arguing for less lawyers is not arguing for lawyer elimination. Lawyers are citizens and having lawyers represent lawyers is fair.
Just have paries pre select more on occupations in society.
The Office of Parliamentary Counsel draft the bills
paries=parties
[Don’t even know what a random word generator is.]
Try looking in the mirror…
New England is one of the most conservative seats in the Country that is why Barnaby chose it and he chose it when Windsor was still going to run. At the last election Barnaby got 65% of the 2PP vote and the people of New England are not going to choose Windsor over Barnaby who will be in the Government and Deputy Prime Minister. The voters of New England area a practical common sense mob. I am going to keep this note and post it again after the election.
guytaur – less=fewer
Just updated the rainfall in my speadsheet, 0.5mm for March and noticed I recorded only 6.5mm for Feb. I thought I must have missed a reading and checked the BOM. They recorded 3.5mm at the airport for Feb.
No wonder the Vic government has ordered water from the desal plant. I am using great quantities to keep the garden alive. I am happy to pay an extra $12 a year for the desal water to continue doing so.
Steelydan
Yeah that is whyb Windsor has won 12 times and retired undefeated.
Do try and stay in touch with reality
Due to their experience, a lawyer would be quicker and more thorough in understanding legislation. And probably better at defending or criticising it than most. I can see why they have a role in senior levels of a political party. However, lots of non-lawyers have done a pretty good job of it too.
The NRA has the solution for the mother shot in the back by her 4 year old. She should have been armed, alert and shot the kid first.
I have no problem with lawyers (or any other profession) in Parliament. In any case, candidates stand, no one has to vote for them.
Re military personnel: Australia has about 58,000 active members and about 45,000 reserves, all up about 0.43% of the population (about 1% of those aged 16-49): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Defence_Force
The only advantage of having lawyers in parliament is that they have, usually, been through a system of training which teaches them to respect the rule of law and the courts, which is pretty important. The question though is whether the good outweighs the bad.
Steve
No one is arguing for elimination of lawyers as MP’s. Just more occupations represented to reflect the reality of society.
adrian every time you mob plays the man not the argument it means only one thing you cant make an argument against mine or for your position. Bit sad really.
[The NRA has the solution for the mother shot in the back by her 4 year old. She should have been armed, alert and shot the kid first.]
I think that her two year old brother or sister should have also had a gun so, you know the drill.
If no brother or sister, surely the family has a dog.
Pee Bee
I was so excited to see some rain this morning, but alas it was very short lived.
[Just more occupations represented to reflect the reality of society.]
And there are lots of occupations where reading and understanding complex writing is part of the training and experience.
Steely @ 172
Factually, Barnaby chose it because he originally came from there. And because Bruce Scott insisted on not retiring from Maranoa to make way for Joyce.
As for the character of the electorate, you are talking crap because no electorate votes with one voice. There are plenty of people there who would cut of their right arm before voting for Tony Windsor. But there are also plenty who would do the same if they had to vote for Joyce. And there are plenty who while naturally conservative (in the old fashioned sense of the word), don’t give a damn about Windsor supporting Labor in 2010 and will be deciding who will give the best deal to the part of the electorate in which they live.
Frankly, I don’t live there and have no idea how this contest is going to turn out. But anyone who thinks that Windsor is going to fall flat on his face and do terribly is a fool – because Windsor has clearly done his homework and is clearly not a fool, unlike most of his detractors.
Windsor’s presser was still going after one hour. Even Sky News had to leave it as they were approaching the 11 o’clock news
[adrian every time you mob plays the man not the argument it means only one thing you cant make an argument against mine or for your position. Bit sad really.]
True, my mistake for not realising that there is an argument in there somewhere.
How amusing that the ABC has now decided that politician’s private lives should stay private:
[ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-10/tony-abbott-peta-credlin-privacy-concerns-the-road-to-ruin/7235596 ]
Sadly, I guess this means they will be cancelling their productions of “At Home with Malcolm” and “At the AFP bunkhouse with Tony”
Windsor believes he is in with a real shot a winning the seat. Although he did say it was going to be a David and Goliath battle
gt
[It makes more sense to have scientists and academics than lawyers.]
It does. And ethicists as well amoung many other professions.
But lawyers are the majority of ‘applicants’.
victoria
[ Windsor believes he is in with a real shot a winning the seat. Although he did say it was going to be a David and Goliath battle ]
More like the Roadrunner vs Wile E Coyote!
Dr Denis Jensen has sadly crueler the case for more scientists in parliament.
Steelydan
if you dont like the gunfire, dont throw grenades.
But seriously, there is a lot of nonsense banter thrown around here and its thrown at everyone, not just those on the ‘right’. Its not a place for the easily offended. My advice is to state your case and defend it (if you want to) from the reasonable criticisms… and ignore the rest. Or play along with the banter.
Player one
Lol!
Thinking further about what Windsor was asked. One of the questions related to Turnbull going to a DD election. Windsor felt that Turnbull would most likely not do this
“crueled”
SenatorLazarus: Congrats Tony Windsor. We can’t allow coal mines on our prime agricultural land. Australia is with you!
guytaur
I agree with you 100%. As is often the case, you mistake a response to a particular post for a position on an issue.
smh: Malware hijacks big four Australian banks apps, steals two-factor SMS codes https://t.co/ud5P7C8Zzq
[Its not a place for the easily offended.]
PB is like a retreat compared to some places of political discussion. Even the trolls get a group hug at times :devil:
zoomster
I had addressed that issue before you posted. I did so when I talked about clerks doing the drafting.
So I don’t get the point if you were agreeing with what I was saying.