The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week mostly splits the difference between a strong result for the government from ReachTEL and a weak one from Ipsos, translating into a 0.3% shift to Labor on two-party preferred and a two-point change on the seat projection, with Labor picking up one each in New South Wales and Victoria. The Ipsos poll also furnished one set of leadership ratings for the week, the impact of which on the trend measures is fairly minor.
On top of that, I’ve got an avalanche of new material to treat you with this week, most of which has been hived off to a separate post dealing with preselection news. There are two further poll results I’ve so far neglected to cover:
• This week’s Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, who now lead 52-48. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (steady), Labor 33% (down two) and Greens 11% (steady). Further questions find 28% reporting the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership has been better than expected, 22% worse than expected, and 41% as expected; a very even divide on the issue of babies born to asylum seekers in Australia, with 39% wanting them sent to Nauru and 40% believing they should remain in Australia; 34% believing conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island are good, versus 40% for poor; and 64% disapproving of suggestions the administration and payment of Medicare, pharmaceutical and aged care benefits should be outsourced, with only 17% approving.
• The Galaxy Queensland poll that provided state results for the Courier-Mail on the weekend also had a federal voting intention component, which had the Coalition’s lead in Queensland at 57-43 (unchanged from the 2013 election), from primary votes of Coalition 49% (up 3.3% since the election), Labor 30% (up 0.2%), Greens 10% (up 3.8%) and Palmer United 1% (down 10.0%). The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 869.
Other notable news:
• The federal redistribution process for the Australian Capital Territory was finalised last month, leaving undisturbed the draft proposal from September. The Fraser electorate, which covers the northern part of Canberra, is to be renamed Fenner, with the Canberra electorate continuing to account for the capital’s centre and south, along with the unpopulated areas of the territory’s south. The two seats are respectively held for Labor by Gai Brodtmann and Andrew Leigh. Around 10,000 voters are to be transferred from Fraser to Canberra, leaving Labor’s two-party margin in Fraser unchanged at 12.6%, while increasing the Canberra margin from 7.0% to 7.4%.
• The process for a redistribution of the Northern Territory and its two federal electorates has commenced, but with a final resolution for the process being scheduled for early next year, the new boundaries will not take effect at the next election.
• The Northern Territory parliament has voted to change the electoral system from compulsory to optional preferential voting, so that voters will be required to do no more than number a single box, as is the case at state elections in New South Wales and Queensland. The bill was passed with the support of cross-bench independents in the face of opposition from Labor.
Jack A Randa.
CPD points?
No question that Abbott made everything more cruel
[(Professor Owler) has also called for the immediate establishment of a national body of clinical experts, independent of government, to investigate and report back to parliament on the health and welfare of asylum-seekers, saying the Abbott government had disbanded an advisory body of independent doctors fulfilling this role in December 2013.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ama-president-brian-owler-says-turnbull-and-shorten-have-spoken-over-baby-asha-case-20160220-gmzf4k.html
mari:
Long time no see. Hope you’ve been well. 🙂
Mari
I bet they wouldn’t. Wonder what Abbott thinks about thinks about this – the times they are a changeing.
thinks about twice was not needed DOH!
A DD really is an intriguing prospect. There’s not much point in calling one under the current voting rules that allow for Group Voting Tickets – the result could be any sort of mess. And if they amend the Electoral Act to provide that voters can express their own preferences without over-restrictive formality rules, then as Mr Green says, the AEC will have a helluva job getting the counting done – a computer count can be run easily enough once the data is entered, but they’ve never done that much data entry before. I do know that the AEC has been quietly consulting the State electoral people, who have run counting systems rather like the probable new C’th one, but how much help they can provide is quite uncertain. So if no Electoral Act Amendment is passed in March, the DD is off. If one is passed, it’s still very problematic(al).
[Gough Whitlam, who did know a lot about const law, even speculated that a newly-elected Parliament could pass a 3-year appropriation.]
I’m sure that would be theoretically possible. The point is that no such appropriation bill has been passed. Sure if you’re a constitutional expert I’ll defer. But if the word annual and the definition of ‘current year’ seem pointless if they don’t really apply to the financial year.
I do concede that the Appropriation Bills don’t specifically state that the authority lapses on Jun 30 and I did find this statement on the finance website:
[Annual appropriations continue to be available to entities until the relevant amount is fully expended or the relevant legislation ceases to provide authority for any unspent amounts to be used.
There are various reasons for enabling appropriations to continue beyond the immediate Budget year. For example, departmental appropriations provide funding for many of the expected expenses required to carry out activities in the financial year, and those expenses include employee entitlements and accounts payable. As the cash to meet such expenses can be required at times other than when the expenses are incurred, the departmental appropriation remains available until required or repealed.]
http://www.finance.gov.au/resource-management/appropriations/introduction/
So you could well be right. That still doesn’t solve the problem if there isn’t enough money in the allocation to see them through to when an appropriations bill can be passed after the election.
[Well, you tell me you real name Ratsak and I might tell you mine. ]
Don’t remember asking your name. Just an indication of your area of expertise 😉
Well that’s the end of the ‘Exchange Super for a Pay Rate Increase for the Casual & Low Paid Employee’ idea. Barnaby Joyce has shot down the idea on Sky. I can’t see that either Malcolm or Scotty the dog of a Treasurer would succeed in taking on Barnaby, there’s not much fight in either of those dogs when it comes to fighting what they might consider to be a good fight, versus keeping the Coalition together.
C@tmomma
Well, good on Barnaby, in that case.
You know things are bad for the LNP when Barnaby Joyce is the voice of sanity.
lizzie,
Yes I thought it rather dystopian to hear Barnaby say, wtte, “We want people to save to support themselves in retirement and not rely on the government to provide them with the Age Pension.”
[I think there is a distinction between announcing the election and doing the formalities. If they really want too, I’m sure they can and Labor would be suicidally stupid to not allow an interim measure to pass.]
Something I’ve conceded. But the actual dissolution of Parliament has to be signed off by the GG on May 11, so this talk of doing it after the Budget is BS. Turnbull could announce and intention to dissolve Parliament on the 11 and then introduce interim supply bills on the 9th to get them through in time. Therefore there would be no budget.
But that is way high risk. Announcing an intention is nothing like the same thing as dissolution of the parliament. That dissolution MUST occur no later than May 11. So the idea that (so long as supply is an issue – and I concede that it may not) Turnbull can just rock up to Yarralumla the day after the Budget and get his DD isn’t right.
If interim supply is needed Labor and the Greens would be completely justified to say no. There would be no urgency except that Turnbull would be embarrassed and made to look a fool for announcing an election before he had his ducks lined up. May 11 would pass because without supply (assuming required yadda yadda) calling an election would be an even more grossly irresponsible act than anything Abbott ever contemplated.
Instead of ‘allowing’ the low paid to opt-out of super (i.e. allowing the market to force down the total compensation of the low paid) they should find a means to prevent fees being levied on the (genuinely) low paid.
Ratsak: “So you could well be right.” 99% sure I am.
“That still doesn’t solve the problem if there isn’t enough money in the allocation to see them through to when an appropriations bill can be passed after the election.” Agreed – in fact I already pointed out that if they suddenly table a “Supply” Bill (or Appropriations Acts Nos 3 & 4 2015-16) we’ll know which departments are running low on money, and it will be a sure-fire indication that they’re about to ask for a DD. Never been a more exciting time etc etc….
E.G.
good idea. Hubby was doing some extremely casual low paid work a couple of years ago. One fortnight he earnt enough to have super paid taken out. An account had been opened with AMP without us really noticing. Next thing we know AMP had swallowed the lot in fees.
[A DD really is an intriguing prospect. There’s not much point in calling one under the current voting rules that allow for Group Voting Tickets – the result could be any sort of mess.]
I’m not so sure a DD really does create much of a problem. The micros are only ever fighting out for the last place because almost none of em get near even half a quota. At the last election LDP did get 0.66 of a quota, but that had much more to do with Liberal voter confusion and is unlikely to happen again. Also Lazarus got 0.69 and Lambie 0.46 but PUP is dead and gone.
Day, Wang, and Muir all got in with much much less than half a quota.
So even at a DD where the quota is halves GTV will still only help the micros grab one seat in all probability in each state. With Palmer spent and Libs more aware of LDP you wouldn’t expect them to gain a quota straight up.
Also, for anyone who is interested I was just reading this American Huffington Post article about what the popularity of Trump and Sanders means and why so many are supporting them:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/donald-trump-bernie-sanders-popularity-reasons_us_56c8d303e4b0ec6725e2dbd1?section=australia
The article contains a quote from a Sanders supporter which resonates all the way over to Australia and shines a light onto the positive reception Labor’s been getting for their tax policies:
“I don’t want to raise taxes but I want the billionaires to pay their REAL fair share, which is what Bernie says.”
Thus if Labor can keep the amount of tax people pay around about what it is now or lower then they are onto a winner because people in the electorate have had enough of the lowest paid not getting a Living Wage AND paying more tax than the multinationals. And with casualisation of the workforce the Living Wage is fast becoming a thing of the past here too.
Fulvio @ 1901 – no, no CPD points, I’m retired. But still passionately interested.
I did the Census 4 years ago and ALL the Super bar ~$80 was swallowed up in fees! I got the last few sheckels out before that could be swallowed up too! 😀
Laughtong: Super accounts with balances under $1,000 are protected from fees, although not from insurance charges. ‘Missed’ fees can be recouped when the balance is over $1,000, but it shouldn’t now be possible (as it was some time ago) for fees to completely swallow balances, provided that there is no insurance component (death and/or disability benefit over and above the balance). I would follow this up with AMP.
Confessions 1903
Pretty good enjoying the 26.8Celsius sea water temp at the moment,although a storm has decided to roll in just as I was about to go down to the beach
MTBW 1904
Yes wonder what is going on in Abbott’s devious and vindictive mind, or more importantly what is Peta thinking about :devil:
Steve777@1921
I had the same thing happen with UniSuper some years ago. I then learnt to swap it out immediately after a casual lecturing stint into my own super account – you can’t choose (or not at that time) your super account when you work for the university here in armidale. It can only go into UniSuper – but you can roll it over into another account.
It’s confirmed – Baby Asha won’t be sent back to Nauru: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-baby-asha-wont-be-sent-back-to-nauru-20160221-gmzjbv.html
(Assuming we can believe the lizard Dutton)
And Jeb has “suspended” (which means terminated) his campaign: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/us-election/nevada-caucuses-hillary-clinton-scores-narrow-win-over-bernie-sanders-20160220-gmzflk.html
ratsak@1871
I wouldn’t have a clue, but suffice to say the opposition does not seem to see any obstacle to a DD and rates it as certainly possible.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/david-marr-and-gerard-henderson-get-heated-on-insiders-20160220-gmzfbg.html
David Marr and Gerard Henderson – who would you back.
1917
The number of seats gained by micro parties under the GTV system is not dependant on the individual vote of a micro party but of the number of micro parties that can attract the preferences to get a quota.
Micro parties, independents and miscellaneous candidates got over 2 DD quotas in each state at the 2013 election and that probably means 2 or even possible 3 micro party candidates being able to be elected.
[Mr Dutton said on Sunday doctors had agreed to release the baby and her mother into community detention but their asylum claims would still be subject to the normal processing. They would not be allowed to settle in Australia.
He said that had been the plan all along and accused activists of “hijacking” the debate for their own purposes.]
Can’t resist the snide remarks, can he.
Why would Malcolm care about getting new Senate rules in place before the next election? He’s not proposing to do anything during the next term anyway, except swan around as PM. Suit him fine if he can’t get anything done.
[Craig Emerson @DrCraigEmerson · 21m21 minutes ago
If the Coalition supports the super opt-out proposal for low income earners it is signalling again it doesn’t believe in compulsory super.]
1930
The Crossbench, including the Greens, could make up almost a third of the Senate if the system is not changed.
Hillary will likely win the democrat nomination but the political revolution is well underway.
It will take some time but more and more people are educating themselves via open communication thanks to the internet.
The big corporate powers and political duopolies are losing their grip….
[Micro parties, independents and miscellaneous candidates got over 2 DD quotas in each state at the 2013 election and that probably means 2 or even possible 3 micro party candidates being able to be elected.]
That isn’t the near random type occurrence that Green and others talk about that is in fact disillusionment, and in this context the premise that someone starts out left of centre but ends up right of centre BY ACCIDENT, or carelessness, or indeed evil backroom dealings, is very weak, a much more likely premise is that they actually prefer any microparty to the big two and the greens.
https://ama.com.au/media/ama-speech-prof-owler-ama-asylum-seeker-health-forum#.Vsk04Gy6-V1.twitter
Extract: The fact of the matter is that prolonged detention of children is a State-sanctioned form of child abuse – and we call for it to stop.
[Immigration has enriched our society. That includes those who have come by boat, those who have fled wars and persecution.
I know of one young boy who fled his country by boat – stuffed on an overloaded boat, he became unwell and almost died.
The boat was seized and he was returned to his homeland, where he and his family were jailed. They fled again by boat, reaching Australia, where he and his family this time were sponsored by a local family.
This is a story that is similar to any of those children who are in detention now. The difference here is that he was Vietnamese and it was the 1970s. He and his family were embraced by Australia.
He grew up to become an anaesthetist. I am proud to have had him as my anaesthetist for 10 years.]
Gee, Peter Dutton has not aged well at all, has he? Hard to believe only fifteen years has passed since this
” rel=”nofollow”>fresh faced young man was elected to parliament.
TOM – So what? From Malcolm’s perspective, all he cares about is getting re-elected and not being a PM who never won an election. Everything else is irrelevant and can be sorted out later.
Brian Owler’s speech contains several examples of very poor medical treatment of refugees, often leading to death. Terrible to read, and one excuse was that our Aborigines aren’t treated any better. Disgusting.
1934
It certainly says nothing to refute the back room dealings argument. Back room dealings are how the micro parties would have the chance at 2 DD quotas because there is no way that their preferences would be anywhere near as directable without GTV or even with ATL preferencing with GTV as a back up.
lizzie
Professor Brian Owler was just talking on radio about this disgrace.
Re supply. Unlike the situation in1975, I think Departments and other government agencies now have sufficient cash reserves – thanks to the introduction of accrual budgeting – to be able to carry on for up to a year or two in the absence of a supply bill.
But Appropriation Bills 1 and 2 also include grants to the states and a lot of non-government organisations providing essential services. I don’t believe there are cash reserves for these payments, so a delayed passage of the supply bills would see these funds dry up, causing a large backlash from the states and etc.
This is why I thought a July election wouldn’t work. But I might have missed something.
[Back room dealings are how the micro parties would have the chance at 2 DD quotas because there is no way that their preferences would be anywhere near as directable without GTV or even with ATL preferencing with GTV as a back up.]
There is an assumption, which maybe right, that these voters really really want to bring their preferences back to the majors or the greens, it may be right but i don’t think there is a lot of evidence for it.
Lizzie – true and there are heaps more like him. In fact most of us white Aussies with Anglo or Celtic names are probably descended from what would now be called “economic refugees” – ie, people looking for a better life. When my great-grandparents came here (I think all 8 migrated in the 1850s) I doubt that they even needed passports or visas, and I expect that applies to the families of many of our pollies. So what hypocrisy for them to talk these days to talk of “illegal immigrants” (or in the jargon of the Act, “unlawful non-citizens”).
One thing is sure, Malcolm needs the bedwetters in his bed pissing out, rather than outside his bed pissing in. I’m not sure what I mean by that. But I hope Malcolm finds it helpful.
Ahhh Meher, I think you’ve spotted the real difficulty with having an election without passing the budget. Hadn’t thought of that, I confess – too focussed on the day-to-day running of departments.
CliveFPalmer: @TurnbullMalcolm should stop locking up people and let them go to New Zealand if they wish. #auspol
Well you know the sands of opinion have shifted if Palmer sees this as a political advantage.
natural caution and the experience from the last couple of years of both state and federal first term governments will mean Turnbull will wait until the normal time (August onwards).
His 9/11 or Tampa may sail over the horizon.
They probably think highly of their skills so delivering a budget in May won’t be a problem.
If they can get passed the Senate voting changes all the better.
Jack A Randa
You’ve reminded me. When our family migrated here our ‘piece of paper’ contained a name, age (I think), birthplace, colour of eyes and hair and ‘distinguishing marks’. Could have been anybody!
That was in the late 50s, when it was welcome to the world. NZ refused us – too many children (3).
[ I don’t believe there are cash reserves for these payments, so a delayed passage of the supply bills would see these funds dry up, causing a large backlash from the states and etc. ]
That would be an interesting situation, particularly now that ScoMo has basically told the states to piss off they are on their own to fill the funding hole he is inflicting on them.
Would feed into the “scared of a Budget, dont believe a word they say, they lied last time as well” campaign pretty strongly.
guytaur
[CliveFPalmer: @TurnbullMalcolm should stop locking up people and let them go to New Zealand if they wish.]
Wow!