BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Coalition

For the third week in a row, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate detects movement away from the Coalition.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week mostly splits the difference between a strong result for the government from ReachTEL and a weak one from Ipsos, translating into a 0.3% shift to Labor on two-party preferred and a two-point change on the seat projection, with Labor picking up one each in New South Wales and Victoria. The Ipsos poll also furnished one set of leadership ratings for the week, the impact of which on the trend measures is fairly minor.

On top of that, I’ve got an avalanche of new material to treat you with this week, most of which has been hived off to a separate post dealing with preselection news. There are two further poll results I’ve so far neglected to cover:

• This week’s Essential Research moves a point in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, who now lead 52-48. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (steady), Labor 33% (down two) and Greens 11% (steady). Further questions find 28% reporting the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership has been better than expected, 22% worse than expected, and 41% as expected; a very even divide on the issue of babies born to asylum seekers in Australia, with 39% wanting them sent to Nauru and 40% believing they should remain in Australia; 34% believing conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island are good, versus 40% for poor; and 64% disapproving of suggestions the administration and payment of Medicare, pharmaceutical and aged care benefits should be outsourced, with only 17% approving.

• The Galaxy Queensland poll that provided state results for the Courier-Mail on the weekend also had a federal voting intention component, which had the Coalition’s lead in Queensland at 57-43 (unchanged from the 2013 election), from primary votes of Coalition 49% (up 3.3% since the election), Labor 30% (up 0.2%), Greens 10% (up 3.8%) and Palmer United 1% (down 10.0%). The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 869.

Other notable news:

• The federal redistribution process for the Australian Capital Territory was finalised last month, leaving undisturbed the draft proposal from September. The Fraser electorate, which covers the northern part of Canberra, is to be renamed Fenner, with the Canberra electorate continuing to account for the capital’s centre and south, along with the unpopulated areas of the territory’s south. The two seats are respectively held for Labor by Gai Brodtmann and Andrew Leigh. Around 10,000 voters are to be transferred from Fraser to Canberra, leaving Labor’s two-party margin in Fraser unchanged at 12.6%, while increasing the Canberra margin from 7.0% to 7.4%.

• The process for a redistribution of the Northern Territory and its two federal electorates has commenced, but with a final resolution for the process being scheduled for early next year, the new boundaries will not take effect at the next election.

• The Northern Territory parliament has voted to change the electoral system from compulsory to optional preferential voting, so that voters will be required to do no more than number a single box, as is the case at state elections in New South Wales and Queensland. The bill was passed with the support of cross-bench independents in the face of opposition from Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,149 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Coalition”

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  1. The David Koch excerpt imbedded in the Kouk story is very powerful. Basically speaking from the Labor script. Good on you Kochie!

  7. User pays roads works like this: You do a public private partnership. The public takes the risk. The private takes the profit. You create a virtual monopoly by making sure that people have no choice at all: you take the road and pay or you walk. Attempts at rat runs are nobbled by increasing restrictions on any possible practical alternative by regulation.

    This will not apply to the regions because the National Party will make sure that urban road users subsidise rural road users, just like urban comms users subisidise rural comms users and just like urban users of everything subsidies rural users of everything.

    This enables the private investors and farmers to screw everyone.

  10. BW
    [User pays roads works like this: You do a public private partnership. The public takes the risk. The private takes the profit. You create a virtual monopoly by making sure that people have no choice at all: you take the road and pay or you walk. Attempts at rat runs are nobbled by increasing restrictions on any possible practical alternative by regulation.]

    Nah, they will never try that on.

  12. [Q. Which Australian Prime Minister has 7/11 vision?
    A. Which Australian worker gets 47 cents an hour?]

    That says it all about Turnbull’s supposed progressiveness.

  14. All the way back in 2007 Keating had Turnbull pegged…

    [PAUL KEATING: Oh Malcolm – Malcolm is a bit like, I did that cracker night speech years ago about the big red bunger. You’d go and light it up and you’d stand back for the big explosion. I fancy Malcolm is like the big red bunger. You’re lighting up, there’s a bit of a fizz, but then nothing, nothing. ]

  15. [Qld MP found in contempt of parliament
    news.com.au
    10 10 Retweets 2 2 likes

    Sounds like barely a slap on the wrist.]

    The punishment hasn’t been handed down yet. That MP will be lucky to survive as an MP and at worst could end up in court facing a prison sentence.

  16. [The punishment hasn’t been handed down yet. That MP will be lucky to survive as an MP and at worst could end up in court facing a prison sentence.]

    So the allegation is a crime has been committed as well as contempt of Parliament? I don’t know the procedure for Parliament to sentence itself, but we should see more of it.

    Like for example jailing a couple of senate committee witnesses who fail to answer or are misleading for a couple of months would really help focus the minds of witnesses!

  17. I think you are being hard on the Greens.

    I do appreciate having a large political party that challenges the macroeconomics status quo. Right or wrong.

    They also are able to challenge certain political system failures that other political parties shy away from.

    Thats all I got.

  18. BCassidy concluded his ABC radio segment earlier. Wtte that BBishop may be candidate for MacKellar, but he doesnt see her being the member after the next election.

  19. Look out when Kochie gets serious. I remember how he came out and blasted Essendon early on in the saga.

    I have heard from people at the Port Adelaide club that he is a powerful force; respected, liked…

  22. WWP Newman re-introduced a law that makes it a criminal offence to mislead parliament or parliamentary committees and the offence could lead to a seven year jail sentence. So the MP in question can be referred to the DPP if the government has a mind to take things that far.

    At best she will be sanctioned by the Speaker and should resign.

  23. Turnbull’s primary stated reason for challenging Abbott was to provide “the economic leadership our nation needs”. Way back when he was new to Parliament he wrote a 52 page Taxation Reform paper setting out ideas for reform, so he had a track record.

    The reality is that in 5 months no economic leadership of any sort has occurred, other than removing “from the table” an increase in GST, apparently after being bullied by backbencher’s spooked by Shorten’s campaign against it. Turnbull (still less Morrison) hasn’t led discussion on any of the tax proposals that, like stodgy, amorphous rice puddings, remain “on the table”. Response to Labor’s negative gearing proposal has been devoid of any analysis (unless abuse can be so characterised). We don’t even know whether Commonwealth debt is considered to be a sufficiently serious issue to stand in the way of hand-outs or tax cuts in the forthcoming budget.

    If this is economic leadership then buying raffle tickets is prudent financial planning. It makes one yearn for a return of Tony Abbott, who one could actively despise for clearly defined reasons.

    With Turnbull, being nimble, agile and innovative apparently involves adopting a position of stasis while the world moves by.

  24. Just a couple of facts about who is advocating for the environment in relation to one environmental issue – mining and CSG.

    Labor and the Coalition voted together to defeat a Greens motion to close down the controversial Shenhua Watermark Mine.

    10 Nov 2015: http://greensmps.org.au/content/motions/motion-stop-shenhua-watermark-mine

    Greens Larissa Waters: http://larissa-waters.greensmps.org.au/coal-seam-gas
    [Having had a bill in the parliament since August 2011, it seems only the Greens are fighting to give landholders the right to say no to coal seam gas on their land. We are also moving to extend water protections to shale and tight gas mining.]

    http://greens.org.au/node/10562
    [“The Greens, at every level, in every state and territory, have a long track record of fighting for landholders to have the right to say no to CSG to protect their land, water and climate,” Senator Larissa Waters, Australian Greens mining spokesperson, said.

    The National, Liberal and Labor parties voted down the Greens’ Landholders’ Right to Refuse (Gas and Coal) Bill 2013 in March 2014, a bill which would have given landholders the right to say no to coal seam gas extraction activity on their land.]

    And, yet again, the political duopoly voted down the bill in 2015.

    http://greens.org.au/node/10718
    [Labor has voted with the Liberals and Nationals to block a Senate motion that detailed their failure to return all the political donations that they have received from the CSG company Santos and that calls for a ban on political donations from mining and coal seam gas companies.

    “Labor’s failure to return all the money they have received from Santos seriously undermines their credibility on standing with residents opposed to CSG. They have been left looking insincere and opportunists.

    “Our motion called for an end to corrupting donations from these companies. It also called for a complete end to coal seam gas and coal mining on agricultural land and associated water resources,” Senator Rhiannon said.]

    Both major political parties beholden to the mining industry.

  28. Windhover @73

    [Turnbull’s primary stated reason for challenging Abbott was to provide “the economic leadership our nation needs”. Way back when he was new to Parliament he wrote a 52 page Taxation Reform paper setting out ideas for reform, so he had a track record.]

    It was barely undergraduate level; embarrassing for a then fifty-something merchant banker.

    He’s a flake (and a Pollywaffle).

  29. victoria

    [ Is the government now backing away from bracket creep? ]

    Pretty soon, this government is going to be surrounded by things it’s “backing away” from. Then what?

  30. Victoria

    Well I guess retirees may as well blow all their super on a good car and a long OS trip. No point in paying down the mortgage.

  31. peg

    The federal Greens can propose all the legislation they want about mineral exploration – it’s not in their power to do anything about it.

    Whether or not a landholder owns anything below the surface of their land is a state issue.

    For the feds to change this, they would need to do so by referendum, and insert a clause which gives them jurisdiction over minerals.

    As the Greens do not seem to be proposing this, they are simply indulging in grandstanding, putting up pointless legislation to make people like you think they’re doing something.

  32. Pegasus

    [ The anti-Greens rhetoric from the political duopoly and the MSM always ramps up before an election ]

    Whereas the Greens rhetoric about the “political duopoly” it so longs to become a part of goes on all year round. 🙁

  34. peg

    [The anti-Greens rhetoric from the political duopoly and the MSM always ramps up before an election..]

    You’ve told us before you only come here before an election, so you wouldn’t know.

  35. US election polls are fluctuating wildly at the moment. Some large differences between various polls.

    Super Tuesday is 1st March. Lots of Southern states up that day. Hopefully the republican field is cut down after that and some sanity and certainty will settle on the political landscape like a pea souper.

  38. By concentrating on a wider spectrum of social concerns, are the Greens abandoning their fight for the environment and leaving it to local groups?

    Andrew Street is relying exclusively on the discredited word of two preference deal stitch-up artists to decide the merits of Senate electoral reforms being considered by the Senate. He’s making the same lazy mistake as other commentators. He ought to read or talk to Kevin Bonham, Antony Green, or William Bowe, all of whom have track records as rigorous analysts in this field, and none of whom have a dog in the hunt.

    We can look forward to Andrew Street’s next article on capital gains and negative gearing arrangements, based entirely on claims by the Parasitic Rent-Seekers Council of Australia.

    Perhaps he could dispense oracular wisdom on climate change policy from the perspective of coal mining companies.

    He could write about same-sex marriage using nothing but claims from the Australian Christian Lobby.

    It isn’t so much ‘View From The Street’ as ‘View From Rectum Interior’.

  40. [backing in Australia]

    Well, its like reversing a trailer. Its takes you about 10 goes to get it right, mostly because its partly counter intuitive which way you turn the wheel.

    But regardless of how you do it, the LNP will take us backwards.

  41. billie

    [ What does the phrase, uttered multiple times by the Treasurer to the National Press Club, “backing in Australia” mean? ]

    I think he meant to say “backing down in Australia”.

  43. I know what Morrison is trying to say but I don’t think anything he has proposed so far will help. The budget better be good because the process so far has been very ordinary.

  46. [44.I know what Morrison is trying to say but I don’t think anything he has proposed so far will help. The budget better be good because the process so far has been very ordinary.]

    There cannot possibly be a budget.

  47. This is what you get when you define a “successful” minister by their skill in preventing people finding out what kind of job they’re doing.

  49. Morrisson started with the “Are we there now?” kids on road trip metaphor for doing nothing.

    “Backing in Australia” is what happens at the end of the road trip, when we put the caravan away. In other words, the jobs done. Fat chance at this rate.

    Now, according to Malcolm, he and Barnaby are taking us on Thelma and Louise style road trip.

    Problem with this brilliant little metaphor, is the economy ending up dead at the bottom of the Grand Canyon.

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