I’m afraid I won’t be able to treat you to the normal weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate update this week, but given the ongoing stability of the polling situation generally, you’re probably not missing much. We do, however, have the first fortnightly rolling average result for the year from Essential Research, last week’s result having been drawn from a single week’s sample. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 51-49 to 52-48, but the primary votes are unchanged at 44% for the Coalition, 35% for Labor and 10% for the Greens.
Other results from Essential Research show little change in perceptions of the state of the economy on two such results last year, with 28% rating it as good (up two from September) and 31% poor (down one), while 30% rate the economy as heading in the right direction (down four) versus 38% for wrong direction (down one). Scott Morrison is favoured better to handle the economy by 26% (down one), versus 19% for Chris Bowen (up one). Eighteen per cent favour increasing Australia’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with 34% wanting it decreased and 32% favouring no change. Respondents took a favourable view of Australia Day, which 56% rated “a day of national pride” against 22% who opted for two disapproving choices: “a day of reflection on the impact on indigenous people” (14%) and “irrelevant in the 21st century” (8%).
Gary #1548
If they continue moving to the right they’ll fall consistently into the 20’s….10’s….
TT @ 1520
Thanks for link.
Due to strong Green preference flows Labor can win a majority with 39/40% primary vote, perhaps even 38%. They were getting that until the adults took charge of the Liberal Party.
Personally I think Labor will struggle to claw back the ground they have lost since Turnbull replaced Abbott while Turnbull continues to act like an acceptable PM. The budget may change that but it could also cement his position.
But there is still a while to go until the election and the lead while solid is not insurmountable for Labor, yet.
[If they continue moving to the right they’ll fall consistently into the 20’s….10’s….]
Again you are assuming they will. There is no suggestion of that happening. If they can move into the 20’s, they can move up again. The Libs and Labor have their ups and downs in the polls. It’s been forever thus. That’s a fact.
TPOF @1531
It is not a matter of what Shorten does it is what the Government will do I do not have the confidence that you do.
[If they continue moving to the right they’ll fall consistently into the 20’s….10’s….]
If they go to the left they make it to 10% … just like the Greens.
davidwh
[while Turnbull continues to act like an acceptable PM]
Yep. It’s an act.
It’s not a bad act Ctar if that’s all it is however I’m not that cynical of Turnbull. I’m prepared to be patient and see how the next 6-9 months plays out.
[Yep. It’s an act.]
My instant reaction, too 🙂
Pictures of Mal show an old man now.
Anyone with eyes wide open would recognise Abbott’s destructively crazed and backward PMship was the sole contributor to the ALP’s polling at the time.
Toorak Toff
Manne’s piece also gave me a clear understanding of what neo-liberalism is, and the IPA.
[Anyone with eyes wide open would recognise Abbott’s destructively crazed and backward PMship was the sole contributor to the ALP’s polling at the time.]
So? No government in Australia stays in forever. They make enemies, It’s a matter of how long it takes to make enough enemies to lose government. That’s how it works Rex.
and it depends on how much oxygen the media give.
They gave Abbott heaps, and never asked the hard questions. They promoted his three word rants as policy
lizzie – Do you think he’s aging?
[… would recognise Abbott’s destructively crazed and backward PMship was the sole contributor to the ALP’s polling at the time.]
And the incompetent performance of his ministry that is still largely in place.
Have to agree with Rex on Abbott. He self destructed in a big way.
Rex Douglas @1545
[Facts however point to a consistent primary vote of around 30% for the ALP. Realistically, majority Govt is a thing of the past.]
Well, your first sentence is correct. As for the second…
Take a look at all the pretty graphs on the right and tell me how common it is for either of the major parties’ share of the vote (primary or TPP) so stay at a static, unchanging level for years on end?
Realistically, none of us know how good or bad either party is going to in future elections. The best we can do is make educated (or uneducated) guesses based on how things are now and what has happened in the past. Polls change. Public opinion changes. Unexpected events happen and dramatically change politicians’ and their parties fortunes for better or worse.
In the 2012 Queensland State Election, Labor received 26% of the primary vote and won 7 out of 89 seats. For roughly the next year and a half, despite Campbell Newman’s increasing unpopularity and deeply controversial policies, polling didn’t show Labor making particularly large gains on the awful 2012 result, and Newman consistently did much better than Palazczuk (an opposition leader who was not at all dissimilar to Bill Shorten) on preferred premier. Even when the LNP started plunging in the polls, near everyone – die-hard Labor supporters included – still predicted a narrow LNP victory. Labor just had too few seats to possibly win back goverent after one term, and a leader that was regarded as an unimpressive and uncharismatic stand-in. And now they are back on the government benches (albiet in minority government), Campbell Newman lost his seat and has disapeared from politics, Labor is recording consistant if unspectacular leads in the polls and Premier Annastacia Palazszuk is slaughtering the LNP opposition leader on approval and preferred premier, despite few voters even being able to spell her name (I’m not sure I even did it correctly).
Things change in politics. Often very quickly and unexpectedly.
davidwh – Constructed by the press and only very reluctantly abandoned by a few of them.
Malcolm self-destructed when he became PM without demanding that his party be prepared to accept his “moderate” principles (if he has any). We are now seeing the consequences of that slowly unfold.
Kevin 1-7
When he entered parliament he still looked youngish. Lately I’ve thought, there’s an old man. Perhaps it was the strain of hiding his ambitions from Tony 😉
ASHA – Thank you. I find your assessment very instructive, even if, I’m sure, Rex doesn’t.
LIZZIE – Or the strain of being hostage in his own party with nobody to trust.
Kevin 1-7
True. I also agree with your suggestion that he gave in too quickly to the arch conservatives. Makes them think they are in charge.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fairness-apparently-a-missing-dimension-in-abbotts-political-calculations-20160129-gmgt3d.html
Amanda Vanston!
Vanstone!
[“Even if it were to be conclusively established wind farms do not produce health problems, it’s annoying and affects quality of life,” he said.
“I was frankly heartbroken that this land will be forever marred by enormous man-made structures.”
Mr McLachlan
]
Head of the AFL bringing the game into disrepute … pathetic
[http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fairness-apparently-a-missing-dimension-in-abbotts-political-calculations-20160129-gmgt3d.html
Amanda Vanston!
On losing the prime ministership, Abbott made an honourable and admirable commitment to never be a destabaliser, as Kevin Rudd was for Julia Gillard.]
And that is rudds legacy, the destabaliser.
Lovely to see how Amanda, who supported Tones, now wants to run him off. God, she craps on and on. Shorter is better, Amanda.
[“Even if it were to be conclusively established wind farms do not produce health problems, it’s annoying and affects quality of life,” he said.
“I was frankly heartbroken that this land will be forever marred by enormous man-made structures.”]
Whereas coal mines and coal power stations are beauties to behold.
WWP #1576
I think the bit where he mentions the drop in $ value for his nearby property is more to the point.
loved the smh piece on lucy and jacqui.
made me wonder which aussie actress malcolm is bonking and who will lucy take up with after malcolm.
big clive or rupert?
[“I was frankly heartbroken that this land will be forever marred by enormous man-made structures.”]
Unbelievably THICK.
Boris #1577
Alas, it doesn’t seem stop those in Canberra from recommending the despicable Rudd as the new head of the UN.
Which climate change essay by Robert Manne are people recommending? The one in The Monthly in December 2015?
Nicholas
Toorak Toff linked the article on previous page.
I never knew the AFL was involved in coal/renewable energy. WOW. You learn something every day..
The twit is head of the AFL and should confine his public comments to the footy. After the Essendon debacle it needs his full attention
Interesting. I had not realised that the ABC had a copy of the Nick Ross recording with rep from ABC
[The ABC has been in possession of the recording published by New Matilda since around August 2015.
No Fibs has sighted the Public Interest Disclosure Investigation (began 25 June, 2015) Report (dated 30 October, 2015), which dealt with the allegations.
Group Audit investigated two issues:
The ABC News Division has a policy in place since 2013 to only report favourably on the current Government’s/ Coalition’s National Broadband Network (NBN) policy.
Misleading information was provided by the ABC to Senate Estimates Hearings from 2013 to date in relation to the alleged policy above.]
– See more at: http://nofibs.com.au/aunty-through-turnbullmalcolms-independent-looking-glass-of-auspols-realpolitik-jansant-comments/#.dpuf
[ Verified account @margokingston1
Our Paper’s page 1 lead: Tony Burke says Turnbull has unleashed a ‘Shakespeare… http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/tony-burke-says-turnbull-has-unleashed-a-shakespearean-tragedy-on-the-liberal-party/news-story/879ad3395dcc5649dabc952be9e65746 …, see more http://tweetedtimes.com/margokingston1?s=tnp …
The Australian
The Australian]
McLachlan should resign for bringing the game into disrepute.
He is off the rails.
I actually like Jason Clare’s description of Turnbull. The wizard of oz!
davidwh@1553
Well abbott claimed the ‘adults’ took charge when he won government – that turned out peachy.
As for turnbull ‘taking charge’ – the reality of the situation points to the opposite.
Policies he has loudly championed in the past just don’t get a look in these days. The truth is he is being ‘allowed’ to be PM as long as he sticks with abbott’s policies.
Hardly ‘adult’. More like pathetic.
[ davidwh
Posted Sunday, January 31, 2016 at 4:33 pm | Permalink
I’m not that cynical of Turnbull. I’m prepared to be patient and see how the next 6-9 months plays out. ]
But you would be with a Labor Leader.
turnbull has already had over 4 months and basically achieved nothing of substance, policy wise.
It is just unimaginable that such leeway, such abrogation of responsibility for governing the country would be tolerated from any other government. They would be torn limb from limb daily in the media.
Not so with turnbull and its utterly pathetic.
He needs to get on with the job or resign – I’m not prepared to wait 6-9 months.
I know people that knew Turnbull as a kid/teenager. Always wanted to be PM, didn’t matter which party, just wanted to be PM. Probably explains why he is willing to forego any belief or principle and do as he is told. Very similar to Abbott in the sense that that he is willing to sell his arse to get there.
Tom.
Dave neither have any choice about waiting because we can’t do anything until the election is called. We are both stuck with Turnbull until at least then. The difference between me and most here is I haven’t given up on Turnbull already. Mind you I am pretty certain most here would give up on anyone the Libs elected leader.
Tom
[ Very similar to Abbott in the sense that that he is willing to sell his arse to get there. ]
Another similarity is that once they got there, they had very little idea about what they shopuld do.
I really can’t understand those people who want to give Turnbull more time. Why? Past evidence tells us exactly what he will do – i.e. absolutely nothing except ponce about looking “lordly”, and continue to stash money away in offshore tax havens like the Cayman Islands.
davidwh
[The difference between me and most here is I haven’t given up on Turnbull already. Mind you I am pretty certain most here would give up on anyone the Libs elected leader]
Well said David!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/outpouring-of-support-allows-gravely-ill-13yearold-phelicity-sneesby-to-come-home-20160131-gmhzfl.html
These are the things that really matter.
davidwh
[ Mind you I am pretty certain most here would give up on anyone the Libs elected leader ]
Well, you probably won’t find out until the Libs try electing someone who will actually lead the nation, and not just be beholden policy-wise to the various RWNJ factions.
davidwh
[I haven’t given up on Turnbull already]
Considering his preparedness to fwark the NBN and put aside his supposed beliefs in a number of areas on what do you base your lingering hope.
davidwh@1593
Nonsense and excuse making tosh.
turnbull sold out under abbott and is selling out to retain the ‘glittering prize’ of PM – while doing nothing.
If this was Labor you would be making such points.
We do have a choice. Turnbull has the clear fundamental choice to discharge his responsibilities as PM or to rollover – which is what he is doing.
So are you it seems.
davidwh
to be fair, david, I think we’d at least acknowledge he’d done things he said he was going to do, even if we disagreed with them.