ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest monthly result for ReachTEL comes at the higher end of the Coalition’s formidable recent polling form.

Malcolm Turnbull’s formidable run of polling continues with the latest automated phone poll by ReachTEL for the Seven Network, which has the Coalition lead out to 55-45 – up from 53-47 at the previous poll on October 22, and 50-50 at a poll conducted the night after the leadership change on September 15. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 46.% to 48.8%, Labor is down from 33.0% to 31.1%, and the Greens are down from 11.3% to 11.2%.

Malcolm Turnbull leads 71.3-28.7 on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, up from 68.9-31.1. A question on whether respondents felt safer from terrorism under Malcolm Turnbull or Tony Abbott breaks 74-26 to Turbull. And there are also the usual five-point scale leadership satisfaction ratings, which have Turnbull up slightly and Shorten down slightly, which you can read in greater detail here. The poll was conducted last night, from a sample of 3144.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,121 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. C@tmomma

    There’s been a bit of that. One year the Coalition removes all (or most) funding from something and the next year they put half back and announce it as if they’ve been really generous. Comes under the heading of “make your bloody minds up about your goals”, but it’s only social media that call them out for it.

  2. zoomster

    My argument with bemused is not efficiency. It was a simple observation not that serious.

    I challenged bemused on his assertion.

    I made my point.

    Going on about it helps no one. My comment regarding prepolls was for this round of polling booth closures. Though of course it has something to do with the funding provided to the AEC as well.

    Given the budget the AEC is making sensible decisions about where it is spending its money.

  3. daretotread 1008

    Knowing a few Kooyong Liberals, they are a mixed bag, many of them are similar to Turnbull in terms of wealth, schooling and attitude but there are one or two local Liberals who when it comes to subjects like Israel, listening to them, you could be mistaken for thinking that you are talking to someone on the hard left.

    What makes this worst is that the people I am referring too are not like 70 or something but are considerably younger.

  4. TrueBlueAussie@977

    When is Shorten going to be rolled… this year… or next year?

    You called him gone 6 months ago but abbott was the one who got rolled!

    :kiss:

    100% wrong – on timing and the target.

    SNAFU from a drop kick.

    [ TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Sunday, June 21, 2015 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

    This is the last week of Shorten folks.

    Say your Goodbyes, Farewells and God Blesses ]

  5. zoomster@1048

    guytaur

    as billie’s post demonstrates, the AEC regularly closes down booths. I think there have been about thirty closed in Indi over the last twenty years.

    I have fond memories of some of them – Carboor Upper (I think) had 11 voters, 2 of whom unfailingly voted for Labor.

    How many AEC staff worked there?

  6. I think the current almost insane ranting by the far right media folks is a good example of why senior political figures should not get into bed with them. Hell hath no fury like the 2GBMJ and their related parties. If they can’t control you they try to bring you down.

  7. dwh

    I think your post at 1056 qualifies as what is known as a pearl of wisdom. The problem is the politicians who are not wise.

    Lets hope they wise up soon.

  10. imacca @ 1047,

    ‘ But now C@tmomma, they have to fit that into the frame of their 2016 Budget. Interesting times ahead for the Turnbull / ScoMo team and am expecting some friction. ‘

    Reading the article it’s only a lazy $100M, so they can probably cream it off the top of the Foreign Aid Budget for a fast-sinking Pacific Atoll. 😉

  12. davidwh@1056

    I think the current almost insane ranting by the far right media folks is a good example of why senior political figures should not get into bed with them. Hell hath no fury like the 2GBMJ and their related parties. If they can’t control you they try to bring you down.

    Don’t you feel the need to distance yourself as far as possible from them?

  13. lizzie,

    ‘ One year the Coalition removes all (or most) funding from something and the next year they put half back and announce it as if they’ve been really generous.’

    The worst of it is that when the Liberals do that they get treated like messiahs by the media!

    Case in point, Turnbull’s withering dismissal of Labor’s much more ambitious Climate Change CO2 Emissions Reductions were repeated word-for-word across the media, as if the gospel truth. Now Turnbull proposes to do something along the same lines, well he’ll have to if he is to find a way to fulfill this ambitious goal, and they go off like adulation firecrackers.

  15. ‘ Sources have told The Australian Financial Review that Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce and former industry minister Ian Macfarlane are among those exercised over a communique Australia is being pressured by New Zealand and others to sign on the sidelines at Paris.

    The Coalition MPs are arguing it would pose a risk to the multi-billion dollar rebate on diesel excise that farmers and miners enjoy.’

    Key word, ‘Enjoy’. Not ‘Need’.

  16. […you could be mistaken for thinking that you are talking to someone on the hard left.]

    What is this ‘hard left’ of which you speak, and is it related in some way to the road rules?

  17. [“Doing some more work to help the terrorists I see. Not very smart.”]

    Bit of deflection there from the left… not working well though.

    Islam the Religion of Peace line isn’t working so well with bodies in the streets, so lets try a bit of reverse psychology and blame those people pointing out it’s a religion of zealots.

  18. [“You called him gone 6 months ago but abbott was the one who got rolled!”]

    No, you have me wrong.

    As a Lib voter I am a Shorten supporter, please keep him as leader all the way up to the election.

  20. Adrian

    By hard left I am referring to the Socialist Alliance

    They are usually the ones who lead pro-Palestinian causes and are often highly critical of Israel’s actions.

  22. guytaur

    [ @LowyInstitute: “Climate change and tax reform are inextricably linked through imposing a price on carbon; a carbon tax”: https://t.co/ezXScmstTf ]

    So the LNP will now embrace a carbon tax … this will cause Rudd, Gillard AND Abbott to spin in their political graves.

    I wonder if we could use them to generate some renewable energy?

  23. “@PatConroy1: How can govt commit to doubling Oz investment in clean tech innovation when you plan to abolish CEFC & ARENA? #qt #ParisClimateTalks”

  24. [They are usually the ones who lead pro-Palestinian causes and are often highly critical of Israel’s actions.]

    Oh, you mean rational human beings. Why didn’t you say in the first place?

  25. I don’t think Gillard will be bothered, she has moved onto greener pastures and now has a number of jobs which play to her interests without having to put up with the carping from the media.

  26. “@andrewjgiles: Bishop calls the evidence-based work of the Climate Change Authority ‘figures pulled out of the air’, while hiding behind accounting tricks”

  27. [“Oh, you mean rational human beings. Why didn’t you say in the first place?”]

    The Socialist Alliance are also violent extremists who hate democracy and freedom of speech.

    But they are from the left… so that’s okay. Won’t be seeing any 7:30 reports about them any time soon.

  28. Adrian

    It was in the context of describing the attitude of people who otherwise are right wing.

    Surely you understand political speak 😉

  30. The Queen expected us to become a Republic in 1999 – and doesn’t give a monkeys either way.

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/queen-rejected-howard-language-on-1999-republic-referendum-20151125-gl89t6.html#ixzz3svkRWucS

    [Indeed, the little that can be gleaned from the famously discrete sovereign suggests she believes it is likely Australia will eventually break its ties with the monarchy and the royal family will not be as upset as many people think if it does happen.]

  31. With Abbott and co finally showing their hand (as all of us on PB predicted), we are guaranteed to see significant tactical voting at the next election.

    Turnbull voters in electorates with an Abbott loyalist as member will vote Labor, as will Abbott loyalists in electorates with a Turnbull loyalist.

    The tactics taken by Labor voters will be hard to work out. People whose loyalty is simply to “the left” such as myself will probably just vote Labor over Lib, considering how much damage Abbott could do given another 0.5-1 terms, but those whose loyalty is to the Labor party itself may be tempted to vote for Abbott’s backers, knowing that Labor have a better chance in 2019 against Abbott or whoever replaces him than Turnbull.

    I doubt the tactical voting will show up in opinion polls though, so as they say, the only poll that counts is the leadership coup slated for a month after election day.

  32. Any sophistry attempted by the coalition in regard to climate change will be wholeheartedly ignored by the MSM, who happily engage in their own brand of sophistry.

  33. Ah, memories…

    [The ALP has suffered a bad defeat but the worst might be yet to come.

    The ”good” news for the Victorian ALP is that it only narrowly lost the 2010 state election. The bad news is that history and mathematics suggest it is likely to suffer a much heavier defeat at the 2014 poll.]

    [..In Australia, and especially in Victoria, we don’t really do one-term governments.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-figures-point-to-electoral-wilderness-for-victorian-labor-20101215-18y4a.html#ixzz3swV7df5C
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  39. [The ”good” news for the Victorian ALP is that it only narrowly lost the 2010 state election. The bad news is that history and mathematics suggest it is likely to suffer a much heavier defeat at the 2014 poll.]

    We’ve had a lot of changes of government in the last 8 years of so.

    There was a period of about ten years when we had very few at state or federal level but the pace of change seems to have quickened and the old rules don’t apply.

  41. BK

    Nice to see you back, Lizzie and D&M did a great job with the morning news while you were away.

    Porter’s collar and tie are a reflection of his performance level.

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