ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest monthly result for ReachTEL comes at the higher end of the Coalition’s formidable recent polling form.

Malcolm Turnbull’s formidable run of polling continues with the latest automated phone poll by ReachTEL for the Seven Network, which has the Coalition lead out to 55-45 – up from 53-47 at the previous poll on October 22, and 50-50 at a poll conducted the night after the leadership change on September 15. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 46.% to 48.8%, Labor is down from 33.0% to 31.1%, and the Greens are down from 11.3% to 11.2%.

Malcolm Turnbull leads 71.3-28.7 on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, up from 68.9-31.1. A question on whether respondents felt safer from terrorism under Malcolm Turnbull or Tony Abbott breaks 74-26 to Turbull. And there are also the usual five-point scale leadership satisfaction ratings, which have Turnbull up slightly and Shorten down slightly, which you can read in greater detail here. The poll was conducted last night, from a sample of 3144.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,121 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. CE @ 777 from last thread
    Surprise? What surprise?

    I guess it’s a surprise to Labor. Labor was far too cautious in those last few months where Abbott kept banging on about national security. The assumption being that national security was an area where they couldn’t dare to strongly reject Abbott.

    Being passive, overcautious and slow to take initiative is Shorten’s main weakness.

    Labor needs to stop with the “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” attitude to strategy, stop being scared of exploring (and acting on) hypotheticals, and switch to asking if what they’re doing is sufficient (not merely ‘ok’) and could they do better.

    In any case, Labor have lost, to Turnbull, the opportunity to be seen as a strong rejection of Abbott’s madness.

  3. CE @ 777 from last thread
    Surprise? What surprise?

    I guess it’s a surprise to Labor. Labor was far too cautious in those last few months where Abbott kept banging on about national security. The assumption being that national security was an area where they couldn’t dare to strongly reject Abbott.

    Being passive, overcautious and slow to take initiative is Shorten’s main weakness.

    Labor needs to stop with the “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” attitude to strategy, stop being scared of exploring (and acting on) hypotheticals, and switch to asking if what they’re doing is sufficient (not merely ‘ok’) and could they do better.

    In any case, Labor have lost, to Turnbull, the opportunity to be seen as a strong rejection of Abbott’s madness.

  5. Bill Shortens ratings are 26% approval/57% disapproval, according to Newspoll.

    The public want an alternative ALP leader. It’s plain to see.

  11. [Rex Douglas
    Posted Friday, November 27, 2015 at 7:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Bill Shortens ratings are 26% approval/57% disapproval, according to Newspoll.

    The public want an alternative ALP leader. It’s plain to see.]

    What’s plain to see Rex is that you are like a bloody broken record.

    Try saving a few words and just say “ditto” next time. We’ll know what you mean.

  20. There is a school of thought that Bob Ellis is an imbecile.

    [I ask Newspoll to name a hundred of these hybrid people who face both ways, or admit that they, Newspoll, are lying. And I ask the Andrews, Palaszczuk and Weatherill governments to co-fund a Royal Commission into corrupted fraudulence in the polls.]

  22. Why, with Shorten’s polls so bad, are Liberals always asking for him to be dumped? I would have thought they would be happy to leave him there.

  23. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 25m25 minutes ago
    #ReachTEL Poll Shorten: Approve 20.6 (-2.3) Disapprove 47.5 (+1.2) #auspol

  24. PeeBee

    [ Why, with Shorten’s polls so bad, are Liberals always asking for him to be dumped? I would have thought they would be happy to leave him there. ]

    Indeed. When Abbott was on the nose, the ALP supporters were hoping and praying he would remain.

    Something odd is going on. I think Shorten still scares the LNP.

  25. The LNP know Turnbull’s hero poll status can’t last. Sooner or later the hype will blow over so if they can scare Labor into a change of leadership they can cement a poll lead by just saying told youse so, Labor will never change.

    The fact they knifed a first term PM is of course irrelevant, just as are all their other lies.

  27. CTar1@21

    Dio

    There is a school of thought that Bob Ellis is an imbecile.


    I stopped bothering to read him long ago.

    There is a certain entertainment value and an occasional good turn of phrase.

  28. Rex @23,

    I have great difficulty with those figures you have provided. I have a great problem with the breakdown into approve / disapprove. Nowhere in the question asked is there a straight breakdown into those two categories.

    In reality on top of the 20 % of respondents who think Shorten is doing a good or very good job a further 31.9% of respondents believe Shorten is doing a satisfactory job.

    So, in total 52.5 % of respondents are satisfied with the job Bill Shorten is doing. A fair result I would suggest if one wants to get pedantic.

    Anyway, my beef for the night.

    The polls are what they are. We can spend hours wringing our hands in grief or just get on with life.

    No matter who the leader of the labor party was atm there would be little difference in the 2PP numbers and those numbers are the one and only game in town come election time.

    So Rex move on and as my dad would say change the record.

    Cheers.

  29. billie

    [There is a school of thought that polls can be used to push opinions]
    Yes Minister had a classic scene on that point.

    Re the last UK election. Newspaper funded polls had been saying it would be close, Cameron in trouble blah blah blah. Hey it sold papers.

    However after the election it came out that both Labour and Conservative internal polling had shown the Conservatives had it in the bag months before.

  33. outside left

    Are you suggesting that I think even anything for Cory, he is a tosser who should have the courage to go and form his own conservative party but he wont.

    I don’t buy into the compassion or caring crap just because someone is on one side of politics or the other.

    That is one thing I have been totally consistent on for years.

  34. And the figures for the ‘wildly successful’ new leader of The Greens, Richard Di Natale, over the last 4 Reachtel polls are:

    13.4% 28th Aug

    11.9% 15th Sep

    11.3% 22nd Oct

    11.2% 26th Nov

    What I also find interesting from this poll is that in the Preferred PM contest, Greens voters are more likely to support the candidate from the other side of the political spectrum than the one from the side expected to be closer to their own belief system:

    Malcolm Turnbull

    94.7% LNP Voters

    41.0% Labor Voters
    (There goes that idea that even Labor voters prefer Turnbull to Shorten).

    59.1% Greens Voters
    (Well, clearly they do support a Liberal over a Labor leader. Which I think goes to the success of the campaign to convince Greens’ voters that Labor is their true enemy and not the Liberal Party. However, I will concede that maybe they just think Turnbull is doing a good job as PM).

    Bill Shorten:

    5.3% LNP Voters (It’s better than zero! 😀 )

    59.1% Labor Voters
    (Still in the majority with ALP supporters, so something to take a bit of comfort from).

    40.9% Greens Voters (Because they <3 Malcolm) 😉

    I will admit though, when asked specifically how they rate Turnbull's performance as PM, Labor and Greens' voters roughly align in their assessments, with the biggest swadge of numbers rating him as 'Satisfactory'. No love affair there really, especially as compared with LNP supporters.

    Finally, I take comfort from the fact that 52.5% of voters rate Bill Shorten as doing a Very Good, Good, or Satisfactory job as Opposition Leader. At least it's over break even point and not in the negative! 🙂

  37. You can’t really blame Bernardi for the misattribution of the quote but it’s pretty funny that he seems smitten by the thinking of a neo-Nazi paedophile.

  38. C@tmomma
    Thanks for that break down of numbers.

    Bolt and his sycophant Abbottite followers are a mere 5.3% of the Liberal vote….

  39. So if the Bolt/Abbott faction tried to create a party they would be luck to beat the National Party for primary votes.

    Good, hopefully they would only get one or two senators on those numbers and not much more.

  40. DisplayName @ 1 and 3: Of course people feel safer with Mr Turnbull in the chair: they know that he won’t be trying to get Australia into any war that’s going. Same approach as President Eisenhower. If Mr Abbott was still in charge, he would probably have been starting to push for us to be getting our own nuclear weapons, as advocated by his DLP friends back in the 60s.

  41. There is no reason for Shorten to have negative numbers, he has been a solid performer and he inherited a number of policies so really he only ever had to be solid to be competitive and he has ticked that box.

  42. C@tmomma

    I suspect that drop in the Greens is related to the so called “doctors wives’ demographic and variations thereof and Tones PM career being kaput. Tones would be utterly on the nose for them and parking their preference with the “inner city” Greens would seem most acceptable. Heaven forbid parking those preferences with the lumpen prols of the Labor party.

  45. [What I also find interesting from this poll is that in the Preferred PM contest, Greens voters are more likely to support the candidate from the other side of the political spectrum than the one from the side expected to be closer to their own belief system:]

    William had a Crikey article noting this very thing only a few weeks after MT replaced Abbott.

  46. Not going to bother
    entering the argument about whether its Turnbull’s popularity or Shorten’s unpopularity or some combination of both behind these results (because without being able to peer inside the minds of evrey person polled, who the hell knows?), but I’ll just ask this:

    What on earth was it that all these people who have switched back to the Libs from Labor since September hated so much about Abbott? Because clearly it wasn’t his policies. I mean, I realise Abbott said and did dumb shit on a pretty constant basis, but surely all the gaffes and embarrassing encounters with world leaders and knights and dames nonsense is pretty small fry compared to he and his cabinet’s destructive policies and inept governance, right? …Right?

    I mean, the enormous backlash Abbott’s government received can’t be solely due to knighthoods and death cults and Bronwyn Bishop’s helicopter and shirtfronting Putin? Because that’s all that Turnbull has really changed so far. When it comes to policy, everything is either basically entirely the same or completely up in the air. I know the average punter isn’t exactly that engaged, but if this surge keeps up to the elections, I think we will be able to say that personality has completely and utterly defeated policy and governance as what matters to the general electorate.

    It’s looking increasingly likely that Turnbull is going to spend the rest of his term doing nothing whatsoever besides being giving nice speeches and generally being the amazing Malcolm Turnbull, and gullible twits on both sides of the political divide will assume that this means he really, truly, honestly is going to the things that they personally hope he will do. “He’ll announce it this week. I’m sure of it. Okay, so he didn’t, but next week it’s going to happen, mark words. Okay, next month. Well, after the election he definitely will. He’s just waiting for a mandate.”

    And the sad thing is, its looking increasingly likely that this strategy is working.

  50. Asha Leu

    I think ins called relief. Abbott is gone. Relief is like grief; it goes in stages; at this point most are just saying thank-you thank-you to the guy who did the deed.

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