Malcolm Turnbull’s formidable run of polling continues with the latest automated phone poll by ReachTEL for the Seven Network, which has the Coalition lead out to 55-45 – up from 53-47 at the previous poll on October 22, and 50-50 at a poll conducted the night after the leadership change on September 15. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 46.% to 48.8%, Labor is down from 33.0% to 31.1%, and the Greens are down from 11.3% to 11.2%.
Malcolm Turnbull leads 71.3-28.7 on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, up from 68.9-31.1. A question on whether respondents felt safer from terrorism under Malcolm Turnbull or Tony Abbott breaks 74-26 to Turbull. And there are also the usual five-point scale leadership satisfaction ratings, which have Turnbull up slightly and Shorten down slightly, which you can read in greater detail here. The poll was conducted last night, from a sample of 3144.
Morrison was on Sky earlier today denying he was ever offered Treasury back in February. It was all a fiction. Now Mr Hartcher has hit back. Too funny
some in the CPG are saying that Truffles will lead for two terms. I am starting to think the rabble may implode well before this term is even up!!
I can’t remember ever waiting more than 30 minutes to vote.
I can test that as I will be voting in NS on Saturday.
The hardship might be the vendors of the snags and cupcakes who raise money if they are closing down school voting venues
zoomster
My dispute with bemused is his assertion I had no logical basis to make my conclusion. The prepoll option was there in previous elections. So my conclusion remains.
However on the inconvenient part I agree with you. Prepoll has taken a lot of the inconvenience out of the voting process.
The problem I have with pre poll is totally different. I will use Donald Trump as an example. The abuse directed at the disabled journalist by Trump would not have been seen by some voters who would never have voted for him otherwise.
I do not like pre poll being used as the reason to reduce waiting times. I know the AEC is reacting to this not making it happen and is conserving resources.
How to solve the problem of having people vote at the end of the election is simple. When and only when digital voting has as good an accountability system as the current paper ballots we will not need pre poll. Until then I think we are stuck with it.
Zoomster in the last election held in the snow season the mountain residents were told to postal vote – there were no polling booths set up at Victorian ski resorts
In Prahran a third of the electorate pre-poll voted and the Liberal candidate took the opportunity to glad hand every pre-poll voter and the Labor organiser, after scrutinising the voters body language, reckoned he was very successful at turning votes his way
I think we have had more than enough of those lately so pass.
imacca@997
I wish I had bookmarked the article I read recently and maybe someone here can help with a reference.
I read that about 70% of Moslems in Australia are as secular as most nominal Christians.
Of the remainder, most are observant but certainly non-radical – like regular Church going Christians.
Then there is a very small number who are alienated for some reason or other and have the potential to become ‘radicalised’.
imacca
Now I have been gone for 20 years but I KNOW for absolute certainty that in 1992, the Liberals in Kooyong were NAZI. Yes I mean NAZI in the really true meaning. “Conspiracy of the elders of Zion and all that stuff”. The blatant public anti semitism was amazing. I had never, ever met such before in my life. The branch president of the Libs was my neighbour. I was once handing out for labor at polling booth and my neighbour was for the libs. Naturally were chatted, and the anti-Semitism from him and other workers left me reeling.
imacca
Quite likely. I have often thought TBA was too dumb to be just a single person – surely you’d need a whole room full of idiots to reach these levels of stupidity?
bemused
Again All the variable you point to do not change the fact booths are being reduced and thus waiting times increase.
All those variables exist in the booths being closed too. Staff ratio. Entrances. Parking. etc etc.
I made an observation with no numerical number attached to how long the waiting time would increase. So until you can come up with a basis on which waiting time will not increase even if its by a second your assertion I have no logical basis for my observation is BS.
Your mistake was saying no logical basis. If you had said not consequential I would have agreed with you. Thus my last post saying I did not say it would be hours of waiting to aid your thinking.
They are idiots if they think that. Recent polling is indicating people are happier with Turnbull in charge on National Security. That’s not because he has done anything concrete, just because its obvious Turnbull is toning the rhetoric down and taking an “inclusive” not “exclusive” line.
That’s a huge improvement over Abbott regardless of what your politics is. If the RWNJ’s are trying to push the “exclusion, us and them” line they are playing their base for pure politics and being damaging to the country on National Security. Will not play well.
Seriously?? To be honest though I suspect those tendencies exist across the political spectrum / memberships. They seem to be publicly “flowering” though in the RW of the Libs at the moment.
davidwh@1006
He has the same crazed look in his eyes as Corey Bernardi.
Guytaur
I think there has been a subtle change in rules that has massivley increased the numbers prepolling. It seemed to start about 4 years ago in Qld, when the electoral office oppened up more prepolling stations and also stopped demanding a reason why you were prepolling – previously you needed to be going overseas or hospital or somewhere remote or maybe a long shift on the Saturday.
In the last Qld election I think maybe 30% prepolled.
billie
Hastie is more in a Republican mould.
imacca
What reason could they possibly have for going down this path. The party under Turnbull have reversed their political fortunes. From 45/55 to the other way around. Either they believe they are shoring up the base somehow or undermining Turnbull and his fellow travellers
billie
It used to be my job to get the ballot papers up there – all of Victoria’s major ski resorts are in Indi – a huge effort, for less than 100 votes at each booth (locals).
PVO reckons Andrew Hastie is the ants pants. After all, he was the one that recommended him for the seat of Canning
guytaur@1010
Are you really that thick?
There is nothing to support your conclusion. You are just continuing to dig your hole deeper.
imacca
Yes – truly NAZI. The president (my neighbour) was writing a book on the “consiracy.” At the polling booth they dumped on Fraser because his grandmother was a “Jewess from Perth” – Maybe it was the Perth that bothered them. 🙂
I found it quite shocking, which is why I can still remember their words.
DTT
Yes. Why prepoll rules changed and if we should keep them is a debate worth having.
I would prefer they stayed the way they were before. To me the measure is does the prepoll decrease the informal voting to make voters more enfranchised? Does increasing the availability of prepolling stop voters being disenfranchised enough to make up for lack of knowledge that can occur during a campaign?
bemused
Yes you are that thick. You can’t tell the difference between an observation and a conclusion. I did not say how long the wait would be increased.
guytaur
Whether they prepoll or vote on the day, an extra 80 people at the nearest booth (which often has about 100 voters normally anyway) won’t make a huge difference.
It’s quite common up here to see booths with four or five electoral officers and no voters in sight. A booth with a hundred voters, for example, probably would be empty most of the day.
The only way it is likely to affect waiting times is that those canny locals who drive an extra 10 minutes to get to a small booth to avoid a queue at theirs might have to drive for 20.
Re Bemused @964: Turnbull has been quite good on this. What it shows to me is that he is being undermined by the RWNJs.
He has been, but unless he swiftly and emphatically pulls Hastie and the other miscreants into line, I will take it that he is as happy to reach for the dogwhistle as Howard and Abbott, as ready to cultivate the bigot vote, even if he leaves the dirty work to others.
guytaur@1021
Projection.
Guytaur
I have mixed views. With an ageing population it makes sense to get a lot of the retired people to vote in advance.
It also makes the election campaing exciting. The prepoll becomes a central hub of activity. In Ashgrove last state electionj you would find 25 people there ALL day for 2 weeks.
Whatever it is it will be less than the time this tedious argument has taken up this morning.
daretotread@1025
The biggest queues I saw at the last election were at the pre-poll.
The extent of pre-polling now makes a mockery of the concept of an election day.
CTar1@1026
The phrase “like a dog with a bone” springs to mind.
zoomster
You are observing the effect of prepoll voting. Otherwise the booths would not have been set up in the first place.
The AEC does have to account for resources and I do not dispute this.
This is why I addressed the issue of pre polls in my post to you as I think that is the game changer on the issue of number of booths.
Its not waiting time. Its AEC resource spending. A small increase in waiting time is ok if spending on staff where no one turns up at all is done. Its called sensible allocation of resources.
Not the point bemused made though. He said my observation had NO logical basis. That is what I dispute with him. Simple maths less booths more waiting time for those going to larger booths. No matter how few their number.
Post of the day 🙂
Oh good – the ABC has found yet another class of common criminals it can label as “Terrorists”:
Thank goodness our National Re-broadcaster is here to sort this out. I feel safer already.
bemused
The phrase “try looking in a mirror” springs to mind.
Hear hear! Tedious arguments are usually initiated by TBA or some other RWNJ as a means of gaining attention. Those that feed their insatiable need for attention, must have some sort of weird need themselves that requires them to engage with the terminally idiotic and sometimes call them names.
Whatever, I don’t think any of them are to blame in this case.
It’s a mainstream religion that hasn’t modernised.
Christianity has brought itself into the 21st Century and mainstream, liberal society.
Islam is still stuck in the 16th Century. Until this is acknowledged the problems with Islam will never be fixed.
BTW… people who support moderate Islam should be the loudest voices… it should NOT be up to non-muslims to try and protect their religion… the moderates should be out on the streets after these terrorist attacks denouncing them with their full voices and that they bring shame to their religion.. but instead… we get… Silence.
guytaur
No, I am not. I have been visiting booths across this electorate every election (State and federal) since 1996.
I know exactly the kind of booth the AEC is proposing to close down. You clearly don’t.
Player One@1032
I’ll leave the narcissism to you.
zoomster
So you are saying the AEC has been wasting money for a long long time paying for resources not used.
I can take that on board though find it amazing that it would have gone on for a long time with no action. Maybe its more mobility that should have been addressed in the past.
On that basis that the AEC is incompetent managing resources I agree that waiting times will not have increased.
Hell hath no fury…
I commented on Saturday that his SMH article, giving yet more free advice to Turnbull (this time), looked like he’d been jilted.
I think I was right.
Doing some more work to help the terrorists I see. Not very smart.
WWP
Would you have expected something different from this ‘poster’?
WeWantPaul@1039
Also ignores the existence of fundamentalist Christian nutters, fundamentalist Jewish nutters etc.
bemused
When your heroes are the fundamentalist nutters of whatever sect you are blind to the nuttery.
I actually approve of this:
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/un-climate-conference/paris-un-climate-conference-2015-australia-to-double-clean-energy-research-spending-20151129-glb0wi.html
Begrudgingly of course, as all of Labor’s hard work in government on Climate Change policy was for nothing after the Abbott-Turnbull gang tore it down. Now Turn the Bull Up To 11 will get all the credit for merely playing catch-up and riding on Obama’s coat-tails. Grrr!
Di Natalie presser on CC on 24 delayed not live
Geoff Pearson
Geoff Pearson – @GCobber99
Tell all, Bishop, Morrison told http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/turnbull-morrison-bishop-urged-by-labor-to-reveal-roles-in-abbott-removal/story-fn59niix-1227627895417?sv=a50965326a5930a15c49d7ac3063fba1 …
The Australian
The Australian
Which is the normal bullshit from the RWNJ idiot set who aren’t listening to anything out there but what confirms their biases.
Vic, i think that the RW Libs believe they WILL win next year under Turnbull regardless, and are keeping the ground prepared to subsequently remove him. They know that he is pretty much untouchable in a leadership sense before the next election, but if they have won another 3 years, not so much.
But now C@tmomma, they have to fit that into the frame of their 2016 Budget. Interesting times ahead for the Turnbull / ScoMo team and am expecting some friction. 🙂
guytaur
as billie’s post demonstrates, the AEC regularly closes down booths. I think there have been about thirty closed in Indi over the last twenty years.
I have fond memories of some of them – Carboor Upper (I think) had 11 voters, 2 of whom unfailingly voted for Labor.
Di Natalie
1005
If Clem`s Prahran prepoll tactics were than successful, then he may have handed the seat to the Greens from the ALP. This is because the ALP were 39 votes behind the Greens before they were excluded and Clem may well have attracted more than 39 more votes away from the ALP than the Greens.