The Seven Network had a poll this evening from ReachTEL, which records a Coalition lead of 53-47 – a substantial shift on the 50-50 result it recorded on September 15, the evening after the leadership change. That’s all there is from that poll at this stage, but there were some headline-grabbing results today from a Morgan poll, conducted by telephone from a fairly small sample of 574. Bill Shorten could manage only fourth place on the question of preferred Labor leader, with Tanya Plibersek leading on 27% (up a point since July), Anthony Albanese second on 23% (up four), Wayne Swan third on 10% (steady) and Shorten down three to 9%. By contrast, Malcolm Turnbull’s first result for preferred Liberal leader as prime minister has him gaining from 44% to 64%, with Julie Bishop on 12% (down three), Tony Abbott on 8% (down five) and Scott Morrison on 4% (down one). The current leaders’ ratings were 66% approval and 16% disapproval for Turnbull, 25% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up two) for Shorten, and Turbull leading 76-14 as preferred prime minister.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that ReachTEL has Turnbull leading Shorten 68.9-31.1 on preferred prime minister, with 40.2% saying Labor should replace Shorten as leader versus 26.0% opposed.
UPDATE 2: Full results from ReachTEL here. The sample was 3574 – big even by ReachTEL’s standards – with primary votes of 46.7% for the Coalition (up 3.4%), 33.0% for Labor (down 2.9%) and 11.3% for the Greens (down 0.6%).
confessions @ 1248
[chit chat ]
?
More like a desperate attempt to foment copy by lazy media.
A journo not completely smitten by the Turnbull aura. A lighter read
brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/exclusive-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-pours-his-own-tea-20151024-gkhiih.html
lol:
ABC Current Affairs @amworldtodaypm 4m4 minutes ago
Don’t throw out the whole business plan,says @Barnaby_Joyce, some are making “an absolute killing”:http://ab.co/1k3BhZR #agchatoz #ausbiz
&
Ken Tsang @jxeeno 4m4 minutes ago
ICYMI: #NBN working on CVC trunking project to overcome 121 POIs, could help drive backhaul competition http://blog.jxeeno.com/nbn-working-on-cvc-trunking-project-to-overcome-121-pois/ …
LOL.
[Turnbull has high net-sat approval because voters want to identify with him; with his party, much less so. Voters are affiliating with him because he’s suave, urbane, charming, rich and witty. These qualities are, in a way, extra-political. They are almost not political at all. Voters also like him for that.]
briefly – Spot on, together with Turnbull being almost everything that Abbott is not. Aspiration to be in similar shoes to Turnbull is addictive.
However, he’s a Liberal – tried to bring down the Rudd Govt but not as successful at it as Fraser. Seems the Libs believe they have the right to play with democracy.
And herein lies the problem re infrastructure projects…
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/why-dowling-proposal-for-new-port-should-not-be-ignored-20151025-gkhtq4.html
[This from a government that has abandoned several key pre-election promises: to implement the request by the current and three previous Victorian auditors-general to amend the Audit Act to allow the Auditor-General to follow the “money trail” into the accounts of private partners in public/private partnerships; to give the Victorian corruption commission real teeth to follow up on its own suspicions of government corruption; and to require all major infrastructure proposals to be examined by an independent authority.
Instead, Special Minister of State Gavin Jennings suggested Victoria did not need an anti-corruption commission modelled on NSW because Victoria’s government wasn’t as “contaminated” as NSW’s.
Surely these excuses for abandoning election promises essential to restoring good governance in Victoria can’t survive the Laugh Out Loud test – especially in the light of the public warning by logistics expert Michael Dowling.]
TPOF:
Leadershit really is the best way to describe it.
TPOF and confessions
I thought Albo handled Fran Kelly really well – she’s like a dog with a bone when interviewing Labor pollies.
Boring as but good when the pollie stands his ground with a confident tone. Kelly then turns into Abbott ‘but..but..but’
two stupid failures, with another waste of tax payers money:
Laurie Patton @LJPatton 26m26 minutes ago
iTWire – Diluted Data Retention compensation sparks ISP outrage http://www.itwire.com/government-tech-news/technology-regulation/70040-diluted-data-retention-compensation-sparks-isp-outrage …
Laurie Patton @LJPatton 18m18 minutes ago
#TelstraSummit @Scobleizer That’s why @internetAUS has called on Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm to fast track the NBN rollout.
Vic…It’s great that Victoria is doing so well in and for Victoria, and praise where praise is due. However, NSW is doing equally as well if not better…..
Meanwhile here in Boomsville gone dead WA, we have moved into Third Tier (World) status behind the new “boom” States in the East.
Latest the government has come up with is axing some millions worth of new rail cars for the suburban networks.
This stuff was all “costed and ready to go” at the last election which only reinforces that politicians cannot be trusted, by and large, at any level.
I think the economy is largely out of the hands of local governments, and more in the hands of the international economy.
And that is what worries me about having a President, although GG Kerr was not much better.
dave@1216
Pegasus
You’re focussing on general corruption, but I’d like to know why the suggestion for another location for Port of Melbourne was ignored.
BH:
I stopped listening to Fran’s program a few years ago because it was basically an audio version of The Australian.
1260
We could switch to the ACT model of having the executive directly elected by the House of Reps.
A long review of Turnbull and his ilk. Thanks for the link.
[Since Malcolm Turnbull toppled Tony Abbott in the Liberal Party spill, former executives from Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank hold the top three political leadership posts in Australia and New Zealand.
Turnbull, New Zealand Prime Minister John Key and NSW premier Mike Baird together oversee $1.8 trillion of output– with the latter two demonstrating a knack of persuading the public to accept their economic programs. It’s the sort of day-to-day sales pitch any Wall Street dealmaker or investment banker around the world needs to master to get anywhere.]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/want-to-be-prime-minister-go-join-goldies-merrill-deutsche-bank-20150917-gjopry.html#ixzz3pd64v2Al
[NSW premier Mike Baird, a former Deutsche Bank executive, “successfully argued the merits of the controversial planned $20 billion selloff of the state’s electricity network in the face of union opposition and won re-election earlier this year”.
Accumulation by dispossession again. Good for short term hits to the government books. Not so good for long term economic prosperity, according to economists.
…
Globally, part of the move away from democracy and towards economic elite domination has involved transfer of economic policy from economists (who understand the economy) to bankers (who understand how to get rich).
Upward redistribution of wealth is a banker’s area of expertise. It is also the neoliberal project.
…
Such a world view is associated with what is known as ‘system justifying’ and ‘meritocratic’ beliefs, or the mindset that social and economic systems (in this case the market) are fair and just, and that people generally get what they deserve in life.
If you listen for it, Treasurer Scott Morrison’s language is peppered with themes of meritocracy. There is ‘reward for effort’ (hard work leads to success), “some people find it more beneficial to stay on welfare” (the unemployed are lazy), the government’s imperative to remove “welfare traps” (the unemployed are lazy and undeserving) and so-on. Even Turnbull’s “some of us are fortunate in the intellect we inherit from our parents” is meritocracy couched in a nod to luck.
This meritocracy mantra not only reflects the leadership’s ideology, but is an important psychological tool in shaping the public’s receptiveness to neoliberal philosophies (tilling the ground).]
https://newmatilda.com/2015/10/25/malcolm-turnbull-small-l-liberal-or-planet-eating-death-star-early-indications-from-the-turnbull-government/
Confessions
As far as Fran Kelly is concerned I was castigate by a few here some time ago when I said what seem to be to be her LNP view of the world, was obvious to me.
At the time of Gillard working to forge some kind of government and the decision from the Independents was still in the balance, she virtually told her viewers at the time that they would go with Abbott and he would form government.
She appeared to be on good terms with the decision.
It was the first time I noticed what seemed to be some kind of preference, but since listening, from time to time to RN breakfast, she seem more at home bagging the Labor side of politics and seems quite gentle with the LNP.
But then I may be looking with only one eye myself so who can tell?
confessions
Join the club re Fran when it came to interviewing pollies. The other thing that really gave me the ‘irrits’ with Fran was when some “royal family” issue was looked at. OMFG! the gushing the oohing and ahing.
Apologies if already posted:
But leadership alone is not the issue. His popularity might be enough to get the Coalition safely through the next election, but Australia, like most Western democracies, is riven with structural democratic problems that cannot simply be smoothed over.
The underlying support for the major parties is weak; globalisation – think the Trans-Pacific Partnership – continues to undermine the ability of parties to formulate policy that reflects the will of the electorate rather than that of an increasingly internationalised business sector and political class; and ongoing issues around everything from equal marriage to immigration, to climate change, to an aging population in a time of technological upheaval are throwing up issues that are simply beyond the capabilities of “normal” politics.
The bottom line is this: Malcolm Turnbull is riding the tidal wave of relief that is washing across the country, and at this stage the polls are showing nothing more than the fact that he isn’t Tony Abbott
.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-26/dunlop-the-post-traumatic-moment-in-australian-politics/6883098
Tricot:
I have no idea what political leanings FKelly has, but what I objected to was her breakfast program running the front page stories of the Oz as its major headlines. If I wanted to read the Oz I’d just buy a copy.
poroti:
Eek, royal gushiness is the height of sick-making!
confessions
[ I stopped listening to Fran’s program a few years ago because it was basically an audio version of The Australian. ]
Ditto. She’s very partisan in her political views. I don’t know how she keeps her job … oh wait, yes I do.
Just Sayin’
[The bottom line is this: Malcolm Turnbull is riding the tidal wave of relief that is washing across the country, and at this stage the polls are showing nothing more than the fact that he isn’t Tony Abbott]
There would be something in that!
[Surely not. Haven’t we been taught by the spivs and their obedient politicians over the last two decades that spiralling population growth is the panacea for everything good and worthwhile]
Population growth doesn’t cause urban sprawl, NIMBYs in inner city areas who want to hog all of the inner city amenity to themselves cause sprawl. Just compare the geographical size of Australian cities with European, Asian or even North American cities of equivalent populations.
MTBW – The polls are also showing that Turnbull is a new PM. Even tony got a huge boost in the PPM when he became Prime Minister. Everyone wants to believe.
K17
I think it is more than that alone.
Abbott was a warrior and the public didn’t like it but Turnbull is very different person to Abbott he has class.
Two points about people taking an issue with the government hiring a few finance people.
1) Don’t sulk when the Liberals complain about people having union backgrounds
&
2) Don’t advocate in favor of universities as the very same professionals you don’t approve off, in most cases hold a degree
I think its good to see senior pollies and advisers come from a wide range of backgrounds from business and community sector.
[I stopped listening to Fran’s program a few years ago because it was basically an audio version of The Australian.]
Like most ABC employees she understands that strict adherence to the ABC’s patented balance software is a requirement for career advancement/maintenance.
Tricot
[It was the first time I noticed what seemed to be some kind of preference, but since listening, from time to time to RN breakfast, she seem more at home bagging the Labor side of politics and seems quite gentle with the LNP.]
For me the straw that broke the camel’s back was this. Fran had a series during a Fed. election where she looked at marginal seats , their local issues and spoke to the main candidates. In some Qld (?) seat first up a Labor candidate got the constant interruption and challenge of every statement treatment. A couple of minutes later she spoke to the Coalition candidate and the contrast was stark to say the least . She lobbed up an opening question to the first time candidate “What made you enter politics ?”. Then sat back and listened quietly to the cliché ridden “log cabin” story of the Liberal candidate.
adrian
I never watch commercial television I only watch the ABC and SBS and have no complaints.
In common with most people here ,I no longer listen to Fran Kelly after years of listening every morning. The straw that broke my listening habit was her and Michelle Grattan constant bagging of Julia Gillard and ALP in general and the constant adoration of their “boy”Tony Abbott and LNP three years ago,haven’t listened since
[Population growth doesn’t cause urban sprawl, NIMBYs in inner city areas who want to hog all of the inner city amenity to themselves cause sprawl. Just compare the geographical size of Australian cities with European, Asian or even North American cities of equivalent populations.]
Not nearly as simple as this when you factor in crumbling and inadequate infrastructure, and little requirement to add to infrastructure when new developments come on line in already congested areas.
To blame nimbyism is lazy and shortsighted IMHO. Using Sydney as an example, successive governments have been negligent in allowing rampant development with little or no infrastructure, particularly public transport. It’s a disgrace and blaming people who live in these areas and who have to cope with the consequences of this lack of planning, is stupid.
[ABC’s patented balance software ]
More seriously though, on the issue of balance, the ABC’s insistence on ‘balancing’ its reportage of anything AGW related with anti AGW junk non-science represents a total trashing of its integrity as a public broadcaster.
[I think its good to see senior pollies and advisers come from a wide range of backgrounds from business and community sector.]
I agree completely, one of the real problems i know labor ministers at the state level have is they are advised by a very poorly experienced group of kids, yeah some of them are very smart kids doing what is effectively an underpaid apprenticeship for being an MP but I’d rather my transport minister have access to really good advice (and frankly it isn’t going to come from the public service like it might have 60 years ago).
I really don’t see the ABC has bias, everyone keeps saying that its pro government but I don’t see it being that.
I am one with MTBW, but having watched many other news services I rate the ABC has the best of the Australian media.
I think its more a reflection on those who would prefer the ABC to say what it wants to hear when the ABC is in the main a well balanced news service.
mari:
How have you been? Hope you are settled back home after all those months travelling.
WWP
Yes, I have seen that at first hand, I had to visit a former minister’s office for the first time, I walked in and very quickly realised that I was the oldest in the room, most of the team was slightly older than Wyatt Roy.
But all went well, they were a good group to work with.
MTBW@1277
You obviously don’t want them to act as the propaganda arm of the ALP as some here apparently expect. And I say that as an ALP member.
I am sure all presenters have a political opinion of some sort and occasionally are influenced by it. That’s human nature.
A lot of the discussion on this topic here is just infantile.
[But all went well, they were a good group to work with.]
That is good.
Confessions
Good come back for the glorious weather which it is from now until end of next May then off again
Just watching and marveling at most of the MSM hacks transferring their ‘man love”so easily from Tony to Malcolm :devil:
mexicanbeemer@1282
Well said!
Laurie Patton @LJPatton 18m18 minutes ago
Data retention law fatal to rural ISPs https://lnkd.in/eZpGWWA
mexican:
It’s not about bias, and that’s not really what people are complaining about.
The ABC (and SBS) allowing themselves to be bullied by the commercial media, in particular the Murdochracy has been another fail. As is their cowering to the govt of late. It’s bad enough we have to have AGW ‘balanced’ with bullshit, but a public broadcaster is a public broadcaster, not a commercial media outlet.
mari:
Yes the bromance for Malcolm from the media has been nauseating. But I reckon it’s going to get worse before things normalise somewhat.
bemused
[I am sure all presenters have a political opinion of some sort and occasionally are influenced by it.]
Very true , my problem is with ones that don’t manage to get it down to “occasional”.
Adrian
I’d be interested in your ideas about why lack of infrastructure causes cities to sprawl. Inevitably the best infrastructure is near the city centre. If anything, sprawl is encouraged by providing high quality roads to far flung low-density suburbs.
To take Melbourne as an example, there is a very loud movement of inner Melbourne residents who are vocally opposed to high rise development. It’d be hard to argue that Melbourne’s inner city transport infrastructure can’t handle higher density; it’s arguably more fit for purpose than any other city in Australia. And yet Melbourne is only marginally denser than Adelaide and substantially lower density than Sydney.
You’ll get no argument from me against investment in public transport but the political and policy reality is that higher densities tend to drive demand for transport links. It would work equally well in reverse (transport corridors driving development, and this does happen to a degree, looking at some of the developments popping up on Perth’s southern rail line) but for some reason the usual approach tends to be ‘come and we might build it’, not ‘build it and they will come’.
Just sayin
Tim Dunlop’s observations are pretty much spot on. Thanks for posting same
mb @ 1282
I think the ABC news has more of a structural news bias away from Labor than it has a specific bias. The constant badgering of the right wing about ABC left wing bias results in news broadcasters tending to shy away from behaviour or treatment of the Coalition that could be construed as too aggressive. They are not under the same constraints with Labor.
I’m well aware of my own perspective in colouring how I see this, so I’m not as aggro in asserting actual personal bias being instrumental in the way news is reported and people interviewed. Coupled with that structural bias born of criticism aversion, there is also the fear of straying too far from Press Gallery groupthink and being stranded with an original idea that no colleagues will defend out of cowardice.
There are some stand-out examples of newspeople bringing their world view to the job. Toolman stands out. But Tony Jones also does it, albeit less on a political basis than on an issue by issue basis.There are some stand-outs. I haven’t listened to Fran Kelly, but she sounds pretty awful.
However, I have seen a clear pattern of tougher questioning of Labor people compared with Coalition. As we all know, the Coalition was given an almost total free ride on policy questions other than boats and bagging Labor when the Coalition were in opposition. But this has progressed into government, with the Opposition under Shorten being asked more specific questions on Labor policy almost from day one – not only compared to the treatment of the Coalition in Opposition, but also the Coalition in Government.
Time and again, Abbott and now Turnbull says to questioners on difficult issues – ‘watch this space’. And time and again the questioner says ‘Oh. OK.’ They are the government FFS and they have a whole bureaucracy to develop policy and yet they are allowed to say that their homework is not done. Meanwhile, Shorten and Labor are required time and again to actually spell out their policy as though they were in Government.
This might change over time with Turnbull. At the moment, he is not being pressed on anything because the media accept that he has to fashion new policy despite the strictures of the rwnjs who still control much of the party room. Not that the media should allow him off the hook for this, nor would Labor have such an easy ride. Indeed, there would be day after day of how the new Labor leader/PM can barely control their factional opponents and are likely to be brought down by them.
So, all in all that is the landscape. For Labor, it may be a case of what does not kill you makes you stronger. The question is whether this integral structural bias will kill Labor at the next election. If Labor does come out on top, though, I have no doubt it would be a much stronger government than the current incumbents if only because of the torrid questioning it has had to endure.
[Michael Tull
Michael Tull – @Michtull
What happens without strong trade unions? New evidence from the USA says your middle class disappears.
#ausunions http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/10/goodbye-middle-class-51-percent-of-all-american-workers-make-less-than-30000-dollars-a-year.html …]
Fessy
When I compare Channel Nine with the ABC news, I find the ABC is considerably more detailed in its reporting and for the most part better at explaining a story, often after watching Channel Nine, I barely say that I’ve learned anything.
I thought the ABC went through a stage in 2012/2013 of being overly harsh on the ALP and soft on Tony but in recent times its reporting has come across as pretty good, but that could say more about the state of FTA news than it does about the ABC.
poroti@1292
You are grossly exaggerating and taking anything not pro-labor as being ‘bias’.
bemused @ 1285
[You obviously don’t want them to act as the propaganda arm of the ALP as some here apparently expect. And I say that as an ALP member.]
My rant at 1295 might not have made it clear. I am not against Labor being given a hard time. I am against the Coalition being given an easy time. It is not in the national interest – as the election of Abbott as PM showed.
That said, the misreporting of the TURC proceedings to smear Bill Shorten without the balancing information that Aussie Achmed has been showing us is nothing short of a scandal. Especially from the ABC.
[The constant badgering of the right wing about ABC left wing bias results in news broadcasters tending to shy away from behaviour or treatment of the Coalition that could be construed as too aggressive. ]
Yes, and it’s this badgering that sees the ABC compelled to balance universally accepted science with junk non science to placate the loons at News Ltd.