Roy Morgan’s second poll of the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership is an even better result for the Coalition than the first, recording a one-point increase in the primary vote to 47%, with Labor down two to 27.5% and the Greens up one to 14%. On the headline two-party figure based on respondent-allocated preferences, the Coalition lead is up from 55-45 to 56-44. Based on preference flows from the 2013 election, it’s up from 53.5-46.5 to 55-45. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends by face-to-face and SMS from a sample of 3011.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Just as the leadership change appears to have cost Roy Morgan its long-established Labor bias, in the short-term it least, so it seems Essential Research has lost its trademark stability. That’s belied by headline figures for this week which show the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, from steady primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens and Palmer United both down a point to 10% and 1% respectively. However, the result of last week’s two-week fortnightly average included a 50-50 result from the previous week that is not included in this week’s result, so it follows that this week’s numbers failed to replicate those that caused last week’s sharp movement from 50-50 to 52-48.
Essential’s first monthly leadership ratings of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership record his approval rating at 47% and disapproval at 17%, with a weighty 35% opting for don’t know. Bill Shorten enjoys an eight-point drop in his disapproval rating since a month ago to 42%, but his approval rating is up only a point to 30%. Turnbull leads 48-19 as preferred prime minister, which is down from 53-17 when the question was asked immediately after the leadership change.
Also featured are questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues, which was also asked shortly before Tony Abbott was deposed. Only two results are significantly different: the Liberals’ lead over Labor for “political leadership” is up from 9% to 18%, while that for “treatment of asylum seekers” is down from 12% to 7%. The Greens are included as a response option here, which presumably has the effect of weakening the totals for Labor. Further findings have 42% saying private health insurance should be means tested compared with 44% who said everyone should receive a rebate; 56% rating it more important to expand public transport than to build roads and freeways, versus 33% for vice-versa; and 64% saying new roads and freeways should be built only if governments can pay for them without tolls, versus 24% who believe tolls should be charged as necessary.
BRiefly
The greens are equally as much Labors enemy as the liberals are.
Michael West rips into the FFP, brilliantly, as usual
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/tpp-the-devils-in-the-unknown-details-20151007-gk326i.html
Guytaur,
Pretty sure that Don Chipp launched his Democrats from his Federal seat of Hotham in Parliament in 1977. Accept that he was a Liberal up until then. However, he resigned from the Liberal Party to form the Democrats and sat as such throughout that term of Parliament.
He ran in the Senate at the 1980 election and won.
Janine Haynes resigned from the Senate to run for a SA seat back in the 90s.
lizzie
[ Smear and innuendo on no factual basis, by a fantasist. ]
Just before you believe anything put out by the BBC on this subject, remember that they were the centre of the Jimmy Saville pedophile ring.
P1,
“smear and innuendo on no factual basis”
That’s every Nicholas post ever contributed.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@1002
Yes. Some ‘great’ examples there –
[ Rarely has there been such a triumph of image over substance; rarely such an outpouring of admiration for a deal, whose details yet remain a secret.
…If this is such a great deal, why are they hiding it? There is, among other things, a four-letter answer to this question: ISDS (Investor-State Dispute Settlement).
…Pharmaceutical giant Ely Lilly is suing the government of Egypt for lifting the minimum wage.
…Canada is being sued for a ban on fracking and Germany for its phasing out of nuclear power; all actions taken under ISDS clauses in free trade pacts.
US corporations are the biggest litigants, having brought some 127 cases thus far against sovereign government decisions which they claim have damaged their financial interests. Taxpayers have the pleasure of footing the legal defence bills. Even worse, the authority of sovereign courts is ignored in favour of an international dispute tribunal.
…Trade Minister Andrew Robb has won plaudits from far and wide in the business lobby – Yet, with the detail of the deal invisible, there appears to be a contradiction in the American interpretation of these very same arrangements.
…the US is claiming that five years is a minimum standard and there is a “voluntary” agreement using administrative means for an additional three years of monopoly on biologics
…If governments don’t have the courage and the nous to stand up to multinational tax avoiders – many of who are the leading proponents of this deal – how can the public trust them to ensure the best outcome in a free trade deal struck in secret?
Under these circumstances, signing up to the TPP is a bit like buying a used car over the phone with no detail as to the state of the vehicle or the clicks on the odometer, but with glowing assurances from the dealer that “she’s a beauty”. ]
Turnbull has moved what was an extraordinary situation (Abbott, Newman like) back into the realms of the ordinary. Coming back from 55-90 down in seats in one term without a totally inept incumbent is nigh on impossible, i would suggest. Shorten looked great against Abbott but doesnt capturing the public’s imagination like Hawke or Rudd (which would help a lot), still i cant see anyone available making any more of a difference – not before an election next year anyway.
My take is that ‘par’ for the ALP next election would be to recover ~10 seats (+/- 2-3). With Abbott around they were objective favourites but alas that world is done. In this new world, first polling doesnt put ALP on track for par, but needs some time to settle and lots to play for. Into the new year if Billbowe’s tracker still marks ALP at <60 seats then this should be very concerning… not because it means they wont win the 2016 election (this always became hugely unlikely the moment Abbott was rolled), but because it tends to make for a difficult challenge even in 2019
So Desert Fox other non de plume are @Rommel1944 & @F*****P*****Pimp.
Charming fellow
GG @ 1003
Don Chipp ran for the senate in 1977 and took his seat on 1 July 1978. He was member for Hotham until the election. However, Janine Haines was the first senator for the Democrats as she took over Steele Hall’s senate seat when he ran for Boothby(??). He had been elected by the Liberal Movement in 1975 but had gone back to the Libs, but some LM formed the New Liberal Movement which in turn folded into the Democrats, as did the Australia Party. Possibly by then, the senate succession referendum had happened – not sure when that was. Janine Haines lost the seat in 1977 but was elected in 1980.
Player One
Seems to me the BBC is doing a bit of fact checking because it has been completely taken in by this “witness”. I am actually quite cynical about a lot of the paedophile claims, although as others have written, you only had to look at Savile to know he was up to no good.
Obviusly, the TURC recimmendations have no influence on the real law enforcement agencies of this country.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/police-raid-home-of-former-union-official-kathy-jackson-20151007-gk3de5.html
bbs,
But Chipp resigned from the Libs and was a Democrat Member of parliament before he became a Senator (albeit he was elected as a Lib).
[1001
Unitary State
BRiefly
The greens are equally as much Labors enemy as the liberals are.]
It depends on how you look at it. The Liberals have the power to cause a great deal of havoc in the economy and the social order. If power is to be obtained, it must be taken from the Liberals. It’s really that simple. The Greens are a part of the centre-left plurality, at least for the time being. They style themselves as leftist. It’s arguable they are not leftist at all, but are middle-class radicals with few connections to working people.
Whether they survive for long is not yet knowable. Would they survive a recession? Will they have a reason to exist once the renewable economy is sustainably anchored? Who really cares? I don’t care a whole lot, to be sure.
And to continue…
Janine Haines ran for Kingston in 1990. It was strange choice as it was a marginal seat and not where she lived. If she had run in Boothby or Sturt she might have had a chance. She did well but came third. 1990 was going to their breakthrough election, they did quite well in some seats but losing Janine Haines, they lost a lot of momentum. It was brave on her part but the choice of seat was not good. Never helped that the Democrats did not really have a natural constituency and were not helped by their move to the left and the ALP move to the right. They acted more as a place to park a protest vote.
The Democrats almost knocked over Alexander Downer in Mayo in 1998 when he only 52-48 to John Schumann (of Redgum fame).
https://theconversation.com/oecd-plan-means-governments-no-longer-taxing-in-the-dark-48681
[Two years on from a project triggered by scrutiny of the “successful” tax avoidance structures of multinationals such as Apple, Google and Microsoft, the OECD has delivered its final package of reforms on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS).
Is the BEPS project a success? The answer is as elusive as the answer to the classic question “is the glass half full or half empty?”.
…..The deterrent effect will be stronger if the information is made available to the public. However, significant pushback of this idea by the business community has been successful. The OECD recommends the information be restricted to the eyes of tax administrators. This recommendation may not be the most effective policy to counter BEPS, but should go a long way to address the information asymmetry issue between multinationals and tax administrations.]
Public scrutiny of business? Informed citizenry? What a radical expectation.
Interesting article from The Age:
Pharmaceutical giant Ely Lilly is suing the government of Egypt for lifting the minimum wage. Canada is being sued for a ban on fracking and Germany for its phasing out of nuclear power; all actions taken under ISDS clauses in free trade pacts.
US corporations are the biggest litigants, having brought some 127 cases thus far against sovereign government decisions which they claim have damaged their financial interests. Taxpayers have the pleasure of footing the legal defence bills. Even worse, the authority of sovereign courts is ignored in favour of an international dispute tribunal.
So, any action taken by a ‘sovereign’ government that impacts on the profits or potential profits of a Corporation
GG
Don Chipp resigned from the Libs and was an independent for a while before forming the Democrats. Don’t disagree that he sat as a Democrat but he left the reps in 1977 to run for the senate.
is up for dispute – how wonderful is that??!!
oops didn’t see Dave at 1006!
[…but are middle-class radicals with few connections to working people.]
And the stereotyping continues.
BBS,
Agree.
Funny, isn’t it, Morrison is praised by many in the Press Gallery as being a natural salesman, but I am reminded of the fast-talking conman who talks you into signing up just to get rid of his endless spruiking.
[Morrison is a capable, natural salesman but he’s shown he’s not across the broader range of portfolio issues in interviews with a low degree of difficulty. Turnbull has to ensure his economic spokesman is fully up to speed or he could become a weak link.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/the-five-things-malcolm-should-do-next/story-fnihsr9v-1227559399579?sv=98e5587de957ebe8977efa0dea03510b
lizzie,
As Treasurer, Morrison’s only three word slogan is “WTF”.
booleanbach – TPP – implications look woeful – and all one way.
We shouldn’t be surprised.
[.@AndrewRobbMP says he rejects any suggestion the #TPP deal was done in secret #pmagenda]
Just because there was one other person in the room…?
Robb has gone delusional.
GG
Good judgement 🙂
Lizzie – it wasn’t all that long go they were saying the same about dopey joe.
lizzie@1022
payalled for me, but I was able to get this article (from the Australian) by putting the string:
[
Morrison is a capable, natural salesman but he’s shown he’s not across the broader range of portfolio issues ]
into google.
paywalled.
NEED AN EDIT FUNCTION!
K Jackson’s fall is complete. Watched the news and in the intro she was no longer “Whistle-blower….” she is now a “Former union boss……” .
lizzie:
I too am curious as to the Morrison love in. So far he has been underwhelming as Treasurer to say the least.
don
The paywalls are strange beasts. Don’t seem consistent. I walked straight into that article from the link.
[1020
Pegasus
…but are middle-class radicals with few connections to working people.
And the stereotyping continues.]
lol
lizzie@1032
Yeah, it’s a pain. Some people cannot break through the paywall no matter what they do.
The party that’s about to approve a treaty that allows MNCs to sue governments for implementing public policy is not exactly a credible standard-bearer for working people. One of Labor’s many serious problems is its tendency to dine out on past glories as a means of deflecting criticism of what it stands for now. Only an obtuse person would consider Labor more pro-worker than the Greens. Up to 1975, yes, Labor was the party most supportive of workers. The dawn of the neoliberal age in the early 1980s fractured Labor’s utility for workers. For three decades Labor has supported economic policies that guarantee high unemployment and an increasingly casualised, insecure, and exploited workforce.
Labor the party of the working class? You can get away with that among geriatric Labor supporters who just want a quiet life. Your claim has little purchase outside that rarefied circle.
Gundjeihmi Jabiru @MirarrCountry · 2m2 minutes ago
Escaped Ranger #uranium lease fires still out of control now threatening Mt Brockman sacred sites
Good thing we are only buying 75 of these !
WASHINGTON — Concern is mounting on Capitol Hill after recent tests revealed a lightweight F-35 pilot’s neck could snap when ejecting at certain speeds.
The fears focus on the Martin-Baker US16E ejection seat. During testing of the new Generation 3 helmet this summer, testers discovered the risk of fatal neck injury when a lighter pilot ejects during slower-speed flights, according to a source with knowledge of the program. Testers discovered the ejection snapped the necks of lighter-weight test dummies, the source said.
I had to post 1036 five times before Crikey accepted it .
Surely Turnbull is going to micro-manage Treasury? Given his background and expertise – and given the vital nature of this portfolio to the government’s fortunes. He will also probably act as something of a tutor to Morrison over this early period.
reference is:
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense-news/2015/10/04/f-35-fatal-ejection-fear-riles-congress/73219260/
Interesting that the media is now associating attendance at a particular school – in this case Arthur Philip High School at Parramatta – with particular “tendencies”.
Several of the alleged perpetrators and urgers went to Arthur Phillip.
Kinda give a new twist to the Tory reverence for “the Old School” doesn’t it.
I’d have thought they’d have celebrated the idea of school spirit. After all “Dimples” Baird visited there only this year and said what a fantastic example it was.
Seems not, now.
Oh well, “Up, School!” (as they say at Kings… also at Parramatta, but no Wooftahs there, no siree).
Meanwhile how many domestic violence terrorists have murdered their wife or their kids or themselves or some combination of all three, today?
[Expat Follower
……still i cant see anyone available making any more of a difference – not before an election next year anyway.]
A new leader wouldn’t win, but they might prevent a swing to the LNP Turnbull govt
[….Into the new year if Billbowe’s tracker still marks ALP at <60 seats then this should be very concerning… not because it means they wont win the 2016 election (this always became hugely unlikely the moment Abbott was rolled), but because it tends to make for a difficult challenge even in 2019]
True. The way things are going it could be <50 seats. Turnbull needs to keep pushing the envelope towards the centre while keeping the right wing under the thumb. very difficult.
I bet Australia has to supply its own test dummies aks Dutton, Joyce, Pyne, . . .
[Surely Turnbull is going to micro-manage Treasury? ]
But he can’t do all Morrison’s interviews for him.
H,
a swing to the coalition after the 2013 wipeout? you have to be kidding me, aint no Gilliard running here!
what would be par for you all things considered? Would you rate 80-65 Coalition a major disappointment really (even accounting for the Abbott concern)?
Fair point Lizzie
Expat Follower:
Given where we were and where Australia is now, I am just living the dream!
Turnbull is setting the framework for a sensible, centrist, economically responsible and socially compassionate government. That is exactly what Australia needs and I hope it is what happens and that it lasts as long as possible. In that light, I would be happy with Turnbull winning 76 seats in 2016, 76 seats in 2019, 76 seats in 2022 and 76 seats in 2025.
After that, I will be happy to give someone else a chance (perhaps Wyatt Roy?).
Having said that, I do not discount the possibility of >90 seats with Turnbull vs. Shorten.
The most likely situation is about 85-60 is
Every party after being landslided out of office has won seats back the next election (’84, ’98, ’10) – am talking losing a whole mass of seats in a real dumping.
Can you think of a landslide winner with a big majority increasing its seats in the following election?
Expat Follower:
….don’t make assumptions BTW, some here think Gillard was going to win in 2013
:devil:
[1035
Nicholas]
Sheesh….and you accuse Labor supporters of nostalgia.
There is just the practical matter of how to proceed right now.
For mine, recent experience shows that rallying voters to Labor actually worked to rid us of a despotic and an incompetent PM. Attempting to rally voters any other way would have resulted in failure. So it’s a really very simple choice – to be effective or not.
There is no doubt at all that the global economy and environment – and our local patches of each – face substantial challenges. We can try to respond to them from opposition of from power. It’s not a hard choice to make.
[The party that’s about to approve a treaty that allows MNCs to sue governments for implementing public policy]
So you say. But you’re not a credible voice. Labor has never supported ISDS provisions. You are in no position to know if they will do so now.