The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is in a state of flux at the moment, as I’m treating the Liberal leadership change as the starting point for a new series, but don’t yet have enough data points to generate a meaningful trend result. As such, the results shown on the sidebar are simply a weighted average of the six available Turnbull-era poll results, with the one poll result this week (from Essential Research, which was a bad one for Labor) having no more bearing on the total than last week’s. It’s still been enough to knock the Coalition’s two-party reading up 0.4%, and to credit them with gains on the seat projection from New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. I’ve also neglected to update the graphs since last week, and there wasn’t anything new this week in the way of leadership ratings.
poroti,
I was never in doubt the MSM will view this as a labor backdown.
But it is not about now.
It is about the Libs and whether they accept the compromise or not and if not why.
Labor will play this to their advantage irrespective of what the MSM try to put out there.
Cheers.
[So this means a DD before the budget session of Parliament…as soon as the redistribution of seats in WA and NSW have been completed. March. March next year.]
I think this is most likely. Going before the redistributions is messy (but doable), putting a budget together before an election and risking further economic deterioration gives much more time and opportunity for the honeymoon to fade.
If we see the Senate reform bills come up in the first sessions of 2016 we’ll know it’s on.
Player One are you suggesting MTPM is a conical knob?
davidwh
My view of the Tunbott is not something I would be willing to state while children like TBA are present.
[(Memo to self: must send these lines through to Abbott, I’m sure he’d use them….)]
With Peta gone there is a job opening for Abbott’s brain. You’d do a fine job Zoom. Get him back to the top! Labor hero status awaits you.
Tunbott = Turnbott, of course!
🙂 I’ll pay that one Player One.
More non-sniping from Abbott:
[Former prime minister Tony Abbott immediately condemned the decision, saying he was “disappointed”. “I’m a little disappointed by it and frankly, I am disappointed that the people who call for reform did not get behind the 2014 budget,” Mr Abbott told 3AW host Neil Mitchell.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-shelves-controversial-university-reforms-in-major-departure-from-abbott-era-20150930-gjynlt.html
“defer” is the word that will be used by the Coalition a lot, but probably not reported. Until proven otherwise, I assume Turnbull will be reported as having dropped a lot of unpopular policies (including Uni cuts, workplace relations changes etc) while he makes nice noises in relation to social issues and generally looks like a reasonable person.
He’ll go into the election campaign as red-hot favourite and by the time he makes vague mention of post-election “reforms” in these areas, most people will have stopped listening to Labor. This will then serve as the basis for post-election changes that were technically mentioned prior to the election, therefore “mandated”. Basically what Abbott should have done but was too stupid/undisciplined to achieve.
The Turnbott turn .
Before
[In opposition, Turnbull had derided the satellite plan approved by former Labor communications minister Stephen Conroy as wildly expensive and completely unnecessary.
“Don’t buy yourself a Camry, a Falcon – buy yourself a Rolls-Royce, a Bentley,” he said in February 2012.
“Nothing but the best will do. Nothing but the most expensive will do.” ]
.
After
[“The (satellite) will be a game changer for those living in the bush and will help bridge the digital divide currently experienced by many,” he said in mid-August when the launch date was announced. ]
http://www.farmonline.com.au/news/agriculture/agribusiness/general-news/sky-muster-a-rural-game-changer/2744300.aspx
If Turnbull keeps on ” dumping ” policies without putting forward much in the way of new policy then he will leave a big vacuum for labor to fill which they will do with enthusiasm.
Minister after minister is now in the process of ” consulting stakeholders ” as the cupboard is bare policy wise.
How long this takes to work through will be interesting. If they rush they will fuck up for sure, If they dawdle they will leave themselves open to accusations of doing nothing and labor will be front and centre in the coming months as the party with vision and direction.
Turnbull is nowhere arm and may well need to resort to “announceables ” just as Abbott was forced to do and that will be a big mistake. He may try to hide and leave the stage to his ministers under the guise of not playing the24 hour news cycle but the MSM will tire of that quickly.
Having policy tied up in the Senate with no chance of being passed as with the Abbott government or no policy at all now with Turnbull and only 12 months to a election at the most is pretty much more of the same.
Interesting times.
Cheers.
For those who are into comedy you must listen to Neil Mitchell’s interview with Abbott this morning. It was a laugh a minute.
Just one morsel to whet your appetite. After stating that he definitely would have won the next election Abbott went on to say that he believes Malcolm Turnbull will be “competitive” because he has the benefit of the wonderful foundation that Abbott’s two years as PM has created for him. I kid you not. He actually said that. Talk about self delusion.
He also said at one point that Labor has learnt nothing and cannot change. I couldn’t help but think what a perfect epitaph that would be for him.
When Turnbull wins the next election 🙂 I don’t think he will care if Abbott takes the credit for the win.
I just read the ABC report on today’s interview with Abbott. I don’t think he understands what not trying to cause trouble really means.
Darn
Is Abbott helping or hindering the cause?
dwh
[I don’t think he understands what not trying to cause trouble really means.]
bwahahaha.
Keep ’em coming!
The best thing about Abbott’s demise is that it has exposed the true depth of hive-mind RWNJ self-delusion.
I feel Abbott’s path to irrelevance will be much faster that Rudd’s was.
BB @ 15
Spoiler alert, dude.
DWH
It is difficult to interpret Abbott’s behaviour as anything other than delusional.
If so, no amount of reality will ‘fix’ it.
Sniper in the House!
Having some close relations the hospitals industry I suggest that there are two kinds of bullying accusations.
The first reports actual bullying.
The second represents bullying.
Relations are often so very toxic that sorting them out is fairly challenging.
davidwh: the other salient point to make is that Rudd’s government actually clocked up some impressive achievements.
The only thing Abbott has achieved in all his years in public life involves wrecking things others have put legitimate time and effort into building. He’s a vandal and a bully and a festering boil on our political landscape.
He can’t fade into oblivion fast enough for me.
[victoria
Posted Thursday, October 1, 2015 at 11:17 am | PERMALINK
Darn
Is Abbott helping or hindering the cause?]
He’s certainly not helping. His whole intention is clearly NOT to help, but rather to engage in self aggrandisement and criticism of Turnbull, while trying to disguise it as support for the party. Exactly as Lenore Taylor called it in her article yesterday.
Darn
Thanks. That is my take as well.
Darn
Do you know anything about apartment complex to be built near Centrelink office in Greensborough?
The Liberals in Opposition changed almost no legislation to speak of (the only thing I can think of they achieved was blocking the Malaysian solution).
Labor has caused numerous bills to be amended, and others have been killed right off.
Does that make Bill Shorten the Best Opposition Leader ever?
[18.I feel Abbott’s path to irrelevance will be much faster that Rudd’s was.]
The kind of blind joyfulness we love from you David.
You could be right though. If Malcolm can poll well ahead and / win an election Tony will remain a little bit of a joke.
The same was true of course for Gillard. Similarly for Malcolm however if he starts to slip that makes Tony relevant.
The other joker in the pack for Malcolm, that Gillard didn’t have, is that every shift towards the centre that Malcolm makes also makes Abbott relevant. What makes this worse for utegate / fraudband Malcolm is the bunch of fools in the centre / centre-left that expect him to work wonders.
Looked at any numbers on the Canadian election, William?
Here is Abbott interview with Neil Mitchell
http://www.3aw.com.au/radio/neil-mitchell-interviews-tony-abbott-today-on-3aw-20150930-gjymgd
When he thought he was winning, it was the ABC and Fairfax who were being unfair. He still thinks his 2014 budget was a winner 😆
[Mr Abbott revived his complaints about the media but broadened his criticisms to include the conservative broadsheet The Australian, which he accused of failing to strongly back his first budget, which he said was a contradiction given the paper had repeatedly called for economic deregulation.
The former PM made the comments moments after the Turnbull government confirmed it was dumping one of the hallmarks of Mr Abbott’s first budget – the proposal to uncap university fees.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-pleads-the-fifth-amendment-when-asked-if-hes-forgiven-malcolm-turnbull-20151001-gjypw9.html#ixzz3nHEkPbAH
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
davidwh
“”When Turnbull wins the next election 🙂 I don’t think he will care if Abbott takes the credit for the win.””
I remember your “enthusiasm” for Cambell Newman. LOL
victoria
Thanks for the link. I’m not sure I’m strong enough to listen to his sookiness today. 🙂
victoria@128
Thanks victoria.
You really do provide some good links and I have been meaning to acknowledge for some time.
bemused
Thanks.
[suemazzy @suemazzy1 · 3m3 minutes ago
So much for stopping boats Dutton & Aus Border Farce have failed to stop US anti abortion campaigner from flying to Aus without visa]
I think the BorderFarce will be stopping him at the sirport. Fun times
Tony Abbott pleads the Fifth Amendment when asked if he’s forgiven Malcolm Turnbull
Former prime minister Tony Abbott has returned to the airwaves and revealed he never trusted Malcolm Turnbull, believing he was always intent on seizing the leadership.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-pleads-the-fifth-amendment-when-asked-if-hes-forgiven-malcolm-turnbull-20151001-gjypw9.html#ixzz3nHJFCq8B
[At 10am Thursday, the moment Malcolm Turnbull, in his first big play as Prime Minister, opened is mini reform summit with an address to the attendees, Tony Abbott saw fit to do his second radio interview for the week, this time with 3AW’s Neil Mitchell.
The day before, Eric Abetz, an Abbott loyalist who was dumped as Senate leader and cabinet minster following the coup, distributed an email expressing disappointment at “the spate of resignations” from the Liberal Party.
In a piece of passive aggressive brilliance, Abetz told his branch members in the duly leaked missive: “The Liberal Party has always been bigger than the person who holds the position of federal leader from time to time.”
A bit like Abbott using his Ray Hadley interview on Tuesday to urge the dismayed to stick with the Liberal Party, even if they have to do so through “gritted teeth”.
The day after his ouster, Abbott promised no sniping, no destabilisation. For the good of the party and the nation, he pledged to make the transition to Turnbull as easy as possible.
That undertaking lasted barely a week. None of this should come as a surprise to anyone. It’s what happens when you dump a first term prime minister. Clearly, there is a guerilla campaign afoot that would make even Kevin Rudd blush. ]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/tony-abbotts-guerilla-campaign-would-make-kevin-rudd-blush-20150930-gjyn7b?stb=twt#ixzz3nHJRzUjB
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
US anti-abortion campaigner Troy Newman boards plane for Australia despite visa ban
A prominent US anti-abortion campaigner who was denied a visa to Australia has boarded a plane regardless, saying people should “pray that we can get past immigration”.
Troy Newman, who wants doctors who perform abortions to be executed, is scheduled to speak on a national Right to Life tour from Friday.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-antiabortion-campaigner-troy-newman-barred-from-entering-australia-20150930-gjy6a5.html#ixzz3nHJh9r56
wombat
[I know Broken Hill Hospital quite well, having been doing some stints out there for more than 8 years. The bullying at Broken Hill is by the administration – who are mainly ex-nurses. This is a common pattern in NSW public hospitals.]
Hey that’s a coincidence. I worked there for about seven years as well, although not for a couple of years.
I can confirm that administration is very keen on falsifying documents. I caught them doing it (changing the urgency categories of waiting list patients to pretend they were on target) and the only way I could stop them was by telling them I’d refer each case to the Ombudsman if they kept doing it.
The pattern happens in all public hospitals and Broken Hill wasn’t much worse than others I’ve worked in though.
lizzie@134
Will he be sent to Nauru or Manus?
Not to say he wasn’t damaging but the overwhelming emotion re Abbott is that he was and is painfully embarrassing. As he continues to remind us.
I expect the LNP’s response will be to ignore him to highlight how government has changed. “TA was the problem.” “You can relax now that TA is no longer in charge.” “Your new government won’t embarrass you.” This will settle down the alarmed pro-LNP supporters.
I expect Labor’s response will be to ignore him too and highlight that nothing has changed. “The LNP hasn’t changed.” “The LNP won’t change.” “The LNP can’t change.” This will settle down pro-ALP supporters who are looking to Turnbull with hope.
I expect the Green’s response be similar the ALP’s with the twist that “You’ll only get real change with the Greens.”
TA has been neutered. He’ll figure it out eventually.
[I remember your “enthusiasm” for Cambell Newman. LOL]
It is important to handle one’s disappointments with courage and grace but most important hope for the future.
Late Riser
[TA has been neutered. ]
Empty budgie smugglers?
[TA has been neutered.
Empty budgie smugglers?]
Groan and I just swallowed a piece of pizza.
Lizzie
Who really believed Abbott would go quietly. He has always despised Turnbull
And we mustnt forget that it was Liberal MPs who neutered Turnbull when he was OL by getting him roped into utegate
“”It is important to handle one’s disappointments with courage and grace but most important hope for the future.””
That’s why Liberal voters hang in for LIFE!.
Nothing will change the way they think, bigots come to mind!.
[victoria
Posted Thursday, October 1, 2015 at 11:33 am | PERMALINK
Darn
Do you know anything about apartment complex to be built near Centrelink office in Greensborough?]
No I don’t Victoria. But I have to tell you I am getting pretty sick and tired of the way developers are tearing through our community at the moment. We used to have a lovely view of the Dandenongs from our front gate until a developer was permitted to knock down a house just down the road from us and put up three ugly looking two story town houses in its place.
Diog@138:
BHH used to be a great place to work (with an unusual but very effective interaction with Adelaide), but is collapsing due to the forced (read bullied) resignation of the BHH CEO and of her husband, who was the longstanding Head of Medicine there, followed by the resignations of many of the senior medical and nursing staff. All this was at the direction of the Far West NSW Local Health District CEO, who claims that he was forced to do so because of the budget constraints on NSW Health by the Baird Government – this despite the fact that the current minister, Jillian Skinner, is widely acknowledged to be the best for decades. She is rumoured to be for the chop for her seat of North Sydney at the next election, because she is insufficiently loyal to the the political wing of the IPA (“Sin Feign?”) known at the Federal LNP, and their Private Health lobbyists. Poor fellow my country.
Darn
Bummer. You probably live where there are bigger blocks of land, which is ripe for development. This trend is occurring everywhere
[That’s why Liberal voters hang in for LIFE!.
Nothing will change the way they think, bigots come to mind!.]
There is a certain irony in that statement 1934pc.