Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

The only new federal poll for this week suggests the early undecided are breaking in the Turnbull government’s favour.

The only poll of Malcolm Turnbull’s second week is the regular two-week rolling average from Essential Research. Clearly this week’s sample produced a good result for the Coalition, as Essential published its “one week only” result last week to show a 50-50 debut for the Turnbull government, and adding this week’s result to that one has produced a Coalition lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 44%, Labor is down two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Further findings:

• Sixty-three per cent want the election held next year, whereas 21% think the government should go early.

• Forty-one per cent say Tony Abbott should resign from parliament (although it’s not specified if this means right now or at the end of the term), 25% would prefer that he stay on the back bench, and only 16% believe he should be given a ministry.

• Twenty-six per cent rate the state of the economy as good versus 32% for poor, and 34% think it heading in the right direction versus 39% for the wrong direction – both of which are much as they were when these questions were last posed in March.

• Since July 2013, respondents have become somewhat more likely to think people on high incomes would be better off under a Liberal government, and much more likely to think people who send their children to private school would. Conversely, small business, farmers, average working people, pensioners, single parents and the unemployed are now perceived as much better off under Labor. The rating for middle-income earners was 5% in favour of the Liberals two years ago, but is now 6% in favour of Labor.

Further on the polling front, The Australian has today published its first geographic and demographic breakdowns since the takeover of Newspoll by Galaxy, of purely historical interest though the results may be, given that they are compiled from the entire polling period between July and September.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

461 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Article from a few years ago

    [Shorten has made his career in the Labor Party and the union movement, yet he was also best man at the wedding of his close friend John Roskam, executive director of the anti-Labor Institute of Public Affairs. His own first wife was Deborah Beale, whose father Julian Beale was a Liberal MP and grandfather Sir Howard Beale was one of Menzies’ ministers.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rise-and-rise-of-a-reasonable-man-20130912-2tno0.html#ixzz3nC9RYoAU
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  2. TBA

    2. Greenies, because Coal has just become oh-so much cheaper to burn than it used to be, meaning renewables need to drop in cost per kw that much more

    Ignoring the cost of production, especially when the LNP stop subsidising that cost putting further pressure on a dinasore industry

  4. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, September 30, 2015 at 2:47 pm | PERMALINK
    FPM Julia is having a stellar post-PM career. It is great to see. Her contributions will make so much difference, especially for girls. What an excellent role model!

    Agree.

    It’s no surprise though as she has always been a class act despite the misrepresentations, smear and treachery heaped on her by the incompetent failures Rudd and Abbott.

  5. 7-Eleven: Russ Withers resigns from board, CEO Warren Wilmot also stands down

    Do these fine upstanding gentlemen have any connection to the Liberal Party ?

  10. The hard right Christian fringe really need to organise a single position.

    Are they distressed that the moderates are changing policy position… or are they content with the moderates for retaining policy position?

  11. [The announcement by Immigration Minister Peter Dutton regarding the availability of 1500 Work and Holiday visas (Subclass 462) has made a mockery of Malcolm Turnbull’s promise of a “new and consultative” Government, the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union said today.

    Peter Dutton has announced that some 1500 visas were offered to Chinese Nationals between the ages of 18-30 under a program negotiated under the China Australia Free Trade (ChAFTA) deal.

    The move will eventually allow 5000 young Chinese into the country at a time when youth unemployment is close to 14 per cent.

    “The China FTA has not yet been ratified by the Australian Parliament but the new Turnbull Government has steamrolled through one of its most controversial measures,” Michael O’Connor the National Secretary of the CFMEU said today.]

    http://www.cfmeu.net.au/news/turnbull-overrides-parliament-and-begins-implementing-chafta

  12. So hundreds quit the coal party, but how many (misguide d) people joined since the killing season or would have quit if they continued over that cliff?

  13. [sceptic
    Posted Wednesday, September 30, 2015 at 3:08 pm | PERMALINK
    7-Eleven: Russ Withers resigns from board, CEO Warren Wilmot also stands down

    Do these fine upstanding gentlemen have any connection to the Liberal Party ?]

    More importantly, do they face any charges related to their franchisees and employment conditions of those on work or student visas?

  15. MTBW

    I’m sure Mal won’t be phased by a backward Tasmanian.

    It should be entertaining , all these displaced Libs… not causing any trouble, just following Tony’s lead.

  16. Abetz like Abbott totally delusional…

    “I want to assure anyone who subscribes to the values espoused by Menzies that I will continue to be a strong

    Any similarity between them & Menzies is coincidental, I’m sure Gearad Henderson will support their view

  17. sceptic@305

    7-Eleven: Russ Withers resigns from board, CEO Warren Wilmot also stands down

    Do these fine upstanding gentlemen have any connection to the Liberal Party ?

    Billionaire Russ Withers is related to former leading tory politican Reg ‘Toe Cutter’ Withers I believe.

    As for their ‘shock’ at the extent of the screwing of their workers, I have seen comment in the media questioning how 7-11 businesses all over the country, involving franchisees who in most cases have never met each other engaged in exactly the same ripoff tactics on wages and intimidation regarding the visas of their workers.

    So… the claims of I know nuffing ??

    Yeah right. Pigs fly.

    A big tick to Adele Ferguson and the others involved.

  18. sceptic #3226

    I imagine if Robert Menzies was alive today, he’ll take one cold, hard look at Eric Abetz and then loudly utter:

    “Who are you, and what have you done to my Liberal Party?”

  20. Its Work Choices being even more sneaky – and I suggest playing right into Labor’s hands –

    [The move will eventually allow 5000 young Chinese into the country at a time when youth unemployment is close to 14 per cent.

    “The China FTA has not yet been ratified by the Australian Parliament but the new Turnbull Government has steamrolled through one of its most controversial measures,” Michael O’Connor the National Secretary of the CFMEU said today.]

  23. [Boris Johnson’s mother says he is “interested” in becoming the next Prime Minister – but suggested he will have to win her over because she has never voted Conservative.

    Charlotte Johnson Wahl said she was “anxious” about her son taking the “ghastly job” of Prime Minster and predicted there was as much chance of him quitting politics and becoming a painter.

    She added that she was worried “about what the hell” her son is “going to do next”, while admitting that her son “does behave in quite a daft way”. ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnsons-mum-reveals-he-wants-ghastly-pm-job-but-admits-shes-never-voted-tory-a6671901.html

  24. sceptic@305

    7-Eleven: Russ Withers resigns from board, CEO Warren Wilmot also stands down

    Do these fine upstanding gentlemen have any connection to the Liberal Party ?

    You don’t remember the charming Senator Reg Withers aka “The Toe Cutter”?

  25. Citizen – the new Chairman of 7-11 has been on the board since 1999! You’ve got to laugh. That is the funniest thing I have heard in ages.

  26. Dave

    [Boris Johnson’s mother says he is “interested” in becoming the next Prime Minister – but suggested he will have to win her over because she has never voted Conservative.]

    Love it!

  30. Yes, he’s either monumentally ignorant (since 1999) or has turned a blind eye. Take your pick. He’s obviously been left behind to guard all the secrets.

  31. Russ Withers is son of Reg “toe cutter” Withers who was leader of the Libs in the senate on 11 Nov 1975. The moment Fraser was installed in the Lodge he passed Whitlams’s budget, the same one he’d been blocking up to then. His younger brother ( IIRC) is mayor of Town of Cambridge in WA.

    Of course Russ remains the major shareholder in 7-11. It’s not as if he’s given away control.

  34. William Bowe@329

    Russ Withers is no relation to Senator Reg Withers.

    A different Reg Withers –

    [Russell Withers started his professional career at Pye Electronics. He took over his family’s convenience store business from his father Reg Withers before bringing the 7-Eleven brand to Australia. The first 7-Eleven store opened in Oakleigh, Melbourne, in 1977. There are now more than 600 across Australia. In 2010 the business bought ExxonMobil’s 300 petrol stations. The business is majority owned by Russell Withers and his sister Beverley Barlow]

    http://www.brw.com.au/p/lists/rich-200/2014/brw_rich_list_russell_withers_and_2T6cIWelE5gRZNHSl8HGOM

  36. I don’t see the problem with Shorten and Rosken being friends, part of Abbott’s problem was that he very few if any friends on the ALP side or friends that didn’t share his warped world view.

  43. 12 June 2015: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/political-friendships-cross-party-lines-20150612-ghmiu4.html
    [Labor’s Andrew Leigh, who gets along well with Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull, says many cross-party friends prefer to keep it quiet.

    “There’s more of it than you would think, but the brutal partisanship of politics can be unforgiving for people who are seen to have friendships across party lines,” he says.]

  45. Russ Withers is no relation to Senator Reg Withers.

    Doesn’t matter whether Russ is son of Reg Withers or Reg Withers, is he ( or his companies)a Liberal Party donor?

    Can he be counted along with the likes of Paterson’s Pharmacy & Austral Bricks conglomerates that support hard right politics.

  46. https://newmatilda.com/2015/09/30/tanya-plibersek-deeply-concerned-nauru-rapes-less-concerned-about-bringing-victims-oz
    [Labor’s Shadow Foreign Minister says she is “deeply concerned” about reports of sexual violence against women sent to Nauru by Australia, but has declined to add her voice to calls for them to be moved off the island.

    Speaking on Radio National this morning, Tanya Plibersek responded to questions about a recent ABC report highlighting the ongoing instances of sexual assault against refugees sent to be detained and settled on the island by Australia.

    “I am deeply concerned about these most recent reports and I think the government should be held fully accountable for both the way Nauru and Manus Island are being run,” Plibersek said of the Labor policy adopted by the Coalition.

    “We have heard reports not just on Nauru but also on Manus of violence against inmates that should be fully investigated and anyone accused of such a crime should be fully held to account.”

    Despite those concerns, the Shadow Minister dodged a question about joining calls from the Greens for women found to be refugees to be brought to Australia.]

  47. Maybe the COALition have an answer to this problem ….

    England’s central bank has been looking into the economic and financial-stability risks posed by climate change and Carney spoke as the BoE published a report on the impact on the British insurance industry. As well as physical and liability risks, British insurers, which manage almost £2 trillion in assets, also face threats from the re-pricing of investments in fossil fuels in the move toward a lower carbon economy, Mr Carney said.
    “The exposure of UK investors, including insurance companies, to these shifts is potentially huge,” Mr Carney said. General insurers are the most directly exposed to such losses, he said.
    A key danger is that changes in policy leave oil drillers and coal miners with stranded assets, reserves that have little value because the fight against climate change will require them to be left in the ground. While disputed by energy companies, the issue has been gaining greater prominence in the past year.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/climate-change-a-huge-financial-risk-warns-bank-of-england-20150930-gjy3th.html#ixzz3nCcWmvIr
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  48. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/30/politicians-hypocritical-on-freedom-of-information-says-former-commissioner
    [Public commitment to freedom of information on all sides of politics is “rank hypocrisy”, the former information commissioner, John McMillan, has said in his first interview since leaving office.

    “Nobody is ever prepared to say we should repeal the FOI Act and yet they hate it,” McMillan said. “I know they do. And I know why they hate it, but there’s a failure to have a sensible debate.”

    The former commissioner said Labor was also heavily resistant to FOI and some aspects of open governance.

    “There’s a lot of political horse-playing around who is the most secretive government. In my experience there was a lack of enthusiasm from both sides of politics. Senior people in government just don’t like FOI.”]

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