The first nugget of polling of the Malcolm Turnbull era is impressive even by the usual honeymoon effect standard, with Roy Morgan finding Turnbull enjoying a 70-24 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, including a 50-44 lead among Labor supporters. The poll was conducted today from a sample of 1204 respondents.
Also out today is a now-redundant final reading of voting intention under Tony Abbott from Essential Research, which shows the pollster’s usual steady form in having the Coalition on 40%, Labor on 38% and the Greens on 11%, with Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred – none of which is changed from last week. Most of the remaining questions concern refugees, including a factual question on Australia’s refugee intake that produced fairly unremarkable results, with the highest response being for the broadly accurate total of “about 15,000”. Nor did Essential find evidence that opinions dramatically differed between a sub-sample that was advised of the actual figure and the other sub-sample that wasn’t.
Regarding the 12,000 additional Syrian refugees, Essential recorded 19% saying the number should be higher, 36% opting for lower and 30% saying it was about right. Forty-eight per cent expressed support for Australian involvement in air strikes on Islamic State in Syria, with 29% opposed. Other questions found 38% saying the unions’ take on the China free trade agreement, specifically that it fails to protect Australian workers, to be more credible than the government’s line that the agreement contains adequate protections; and 38% saying the coal industry should continue to expand with 33% saying it should not do so, which is a more positive result than you usually get concerning non-renewable energy sources.
Other polling intelligence of recent times that remains of at least historical interest:
• Liberal internal polling reported by InDaily had the Nick Xenophon Team, which is yet to announce candidates, ahead of Labor in the South Australian seats of Barker and Mayo, and ahead of the Liberals in Adelaide and Kingston – suggesting the NXT would very likely win the seats on respective Labor and Liberal preferences.
• Labor internal polling reported by the Herald-Sun suggests the Greens are a big show in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Higgins, held for the Liberals currently by Kelly O’Dwyer, and in the past by Peter Costello, John Gorton and Harold Holt. The poll had the Greens on “between 24-26 per cent” with Labor on 24%, panning out to 50-50 in Liberal-versus-Greens two-party terms if the Greens did indeed finish ahead of Labor.
As a Green I deeply prefer Turnbull to Shorten. But I can’t stomach Turnbull’s party as government, and don’t feel at all represented by Labor, so while my own approval of their leaders might change substantially, my voting intention hasn’t changed one iota.
The voting intention picture will be much more interesting.
The other 20% are lamenting with Jones and Co.
jenauthor
[ Compulsive reading from New Matilda:
https://newmatilda.com//2015/09/15/tony-abbott-and-ted-bundy-only-one-them-accepted-responsibility-and-showed-remorse ]
Yes – an excellent summary of Abbott’s toxicity and also his ability to lie (and not be called out for it!).
We are all better off now that he is gone.
JD.. yes, I couldn’t remember the numbers but seem to recall Rishworth was one of the few ALP MP’s who actually increased their majority in 2013..
Poroti
Rudd was in the high 60s/early 70s
I think some people are getting ahead of themselves. Wait a few weeks or months :P.
In any case, the main thing this would appear to indicate is that Shorten has to be careful in directly attacking Turnbull. Given these numbers, he’s likely to damage himself more than Turnbull if he’s ultra-negative or aggressive.
It’s worth noting in that Morgan PPM poll that there is no undecided electors – only ‘6% someone else’.
So either no-one said they were undecided, or Morgan didn’t offer it as a choice.
Display
Good advice.
Time for Shorten to become a policy wonk. No nasty stuff, just good clear ALP policy. He needs to meet Turnbull on the policy turf.
Story that the SMH ran with their first poll after ALP toppling Rudd in 2010.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillard-saves-labor-20100625-z9qy.html
[Gillard saves Labor
June 26, 2010
Phillip Coorey CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDEN
JULIA GILLARD’S rise to power has catapulted Labor back into a crushing election-winning lead over the Coalition.
A Herald/Nielsen poll conducted after the political execution of Kevin Rudd shows the voters who abandoned Labor in recent months have swarmed back and Ms Gillard has a thumping 21-percentage-point lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.
In findings that would tempt Ms Gillard to call an election sooner rather than later, Labor’s primary vote rose 14 points to 47 per cent since the last poll three weeks ago. Support for the Coalition slipped by 1 point to 42 per cent.
This gave Labor a two-party-preferred lead of 55 per cent to 45, an 8-point swing to the government in three weeks. If the swing were repeated uniformly on election day, Labor would pick up another 11 seats.
The two-party finding was determined by how the 1000 people polled on Thursday night and yesterday said they would allocate their preferences.
Support for the Greens, which had benefited from the disenchantment with the government, plunged from 15 per cent to 8. This will dent its chances of seizing the seat of Melbourne, held by the retiring Finance Minister, Lindsay Tanner.]
markjs – Rishworth had a swing against her in 2013, but not a big one. Her margin post-2010 was 14.5%! Her current margin is 9.7%.
daretotread
Thanks. I suspected he must have been up Turnbull’s current level a some time.
Rudd lead by 73-7 in PPM in the 29 February-2 March 2008 Newspoll.
Won’t be too long before voters realize Turnbull is an ’empty suit’..
Polls will mean nothing re election 2016 for next few months..
I wonder if the 6% included Abbott as a choice
Thanks JD..
DisplayName
I don’t think there are months to wait. If Shorten is not the leader best suited to tackle the new Prime Minister, then Labor needs to act fast. Shorten has little fire-power to make the most of the Libs’ dysfunction so getting rid of him would matter little in that regard.
Labor cannot afford to let Turnbull get up a head of steam in terms of popularity, feeling comfortable in the job, smoothing out some of the party divisions. If they do this, Turnbull will cruise to the easiest of election wins next year.
The next election is still very, very winnable for Labor. But there must be serious doubts about whether the clunky, inarticulate Shorten is the man to take on the new PM.
Leroy
Problem with that Coorey storey is that Rudd had returned to 52/48 already BEFORE the Gillard coup. The bounce was real of course- I estimate about 3%.
PhoenixGreen #51
[As a Green I deeply prefer Turnbull to Shorten.]
I’m interested in why you think so.
Spare a reason?
Thanks dendrite
markjs
[ Won’t be too long before voters realize Turnbull is an ‘empty suit’..
Polls will mean nothing re election 2016 for next few months.. ]
Even an empty suit is preferable to Abbott.
The main danger for Shorten is if Turncoat decides to go early. The LNP already have one DD trigger, I believe.
Alias
The new ALP rules make it impossible to remove Shorten unless he voluntarily resigns. So Shorten would need a health or family issue to justify his departure. However it is not going to happen.
[ alias
Posted Tuesday, September 15, 2015 at 5:29 pm | Permalink
Dave,
I hope you are right, but I fear you are not.
I suspect that for all his failings, Abbott will be true to his word and will not be a wrecker. ]
abbott went back on his undertaking within a few minutes today – amongst the first things he said –
[ There will be no wrecking, no undermining, and no sniping. ]
He then went on to undermine and snipe with his comments about treachery.
dendrite
Wow, makes Turnbull result look modest. Thanks for the numbers.
[58
daretotread
Time for Shorten to become a policy wonk. No nasty stuff, just good clear ALP policy. He needs to meet Turnbull on the policy turf.]
I disagree to an extent. Labor has to undermine the public’s confidence in Turnbull by pointing out his backflips, as well as his commitment to all of the Abbott Government’s toxic policies. This might be construed as negative, but is essential.
And yes of course, Shorten and Labor will need to introduce good policies of their own, but Turnbull is not popular because of his policies, he’s popular because he’s seen as a better and more principled leader than Abbott (And probably Shorten for that matter) so it is essential to take down Turnbull.
Leroy
Labor primary of 47%!
alias
ddt is correct, Shorten is entrenched as leader thanks to Rudds genius
Very unlikely Shorten being replaced
daretotread@58
Yep, time for the policy debate phase to start getting fired up.
Keep the personal attacks on MT to a minimum. Do it when needed. But otherwise, switch to policy. That is MT’s greatest weakness, especially after being so hamstrung by his own hard right.
@billshortenmp: In #QT @TurnbullMalcolm said he “supports all of our policies” & nothing has changed #libspill https://t.co/IpSnanTsz3
Jimmy
I totally disagree.
Focusing on Turnbull backflips will LOSE votes, especially in the next few months, where he has a honeymoon. Save that for 6 months in when the gloss has worn off.
Kevin Rudd’s idiotic rule change is going to seriously harm Labor’s chances at winning an election at some point in the future, may as well do it now, cut the losses and change the rules back
Labor is doing personal attacks.
However just like in tweet at 78 they are doing it through policy to show character.
Funny things facts. Hard to argue against.
Yes, yes those leadership rules are a big hurdle. And to expect Shorten to realise his shortcomings as a Turnbull opponent is a futile dream, I suppose. However, I defy anyone to argue that Tanya Plibersek would not be far and away better credentialled to take on Turnbull.
Some other points about Turnbull on SSM and climate change:
As a skiller debater, Turnbull is perfectly capable of speaking strongly, compellingly on both these issues – in a way that appeals to many voters – while locked within the present policy framework.
Gee, the Nervous Nellies are out, aren’t they? Or perhaps not so nervous… just nasty.
One poll, taken less than one day after Turnbull is elected leader, without even having appointed a Cabinet, and with the rntie country breathing a sigh of relief that Abbott is history, and out come the Nasties with their predictions of doom.
There has been so much build-up to this, years of it. The pressure on the people of Australia from the bumbling Abbott and his team of Howard Has-Beens has been so strong.
Then along comes the white knight, Turnbull: no change to policy, reversing even his own previously stated positions: a captive to the right-wing nutjobs of his party. Turnbull is here to do a sales job.
Yes, there will be a bounce… so what? A bounce was to be expected. Bugs Bunny would have gotten a bounce. Elmer Fudd, Daffy Duck, the same. Anyone-But-Abbott got that bounce. A seasoned, mature political party doesn’t base its policies or its future on a bounce poll that was always going to happen, in one form or another.
The Australian punters are children when it comes to assessment of political quality and civic memory. Seems like some of the observers here are, too.
[51
PhoenixGreen
As a Green I deeply prefer Turnbull to Shorten.]
As a Green you presumably value public health and education, a strong safety net, and strong wages and working conditions for working people, publicly owned infrastructure, and strong regulation of corporations to curb market excesses, all of which Turnbull would be vehemently opposed.
Turnbull is deeply un-progressive except on climate change and marriage equality, which as it turns out, don’t matter all that much to Turnbull.
So this would suggest you value style over substance.
Player One..
It’s clear from today’s QT performance that Turnbull has sold out many of his principles to secure the top job. He has, in effect discarded his main appeal to young voters in particular. But, he’s also shown that he cannot be trusted to deliver on SSM, NBN, Action on Climate Change..
He only succeeded in tying himself in knots today ..and at one point he simply gave up & referred the questioner to the “responsible minister”..
Turnbull has form when it comes to being sucked into smear campaigns and ridiculous rain-making scams. I don’t think he’s as clever as he thinks he is ..and has already allowed the Nats to bluff him into gifting them responsibility for water policy ..at the expense of the environment.
Not a good start to his PM-ship imho..
Shorten has been underestimated from day one. Some said he would go with royal commission, some said he would go with ALP conference. He has been written off so many times before.
BB
I largely agree BUT the key is economic policy. IF Turnbull makes progress in the economic area then he will win easily. If he muffs it (as he may) then Shorten will probably win.
It is too early to make a judgement.
alias
[ As a skiller debater, Turnbull is perfectly capable of speaking strongly … ]
This is actually one of Turnbull’s biggest weaknesses. He loves the sound of his own voice a bit too much.
Bushfire Bill
Not to worry. The Turnbull “new car smell” will quickly dissipate .
Mark
I agree the water thing is passing strange.
Wow, the Chicken Littles are out in force
Hey what is with the garish suits worn by Clare and Shorten?
DTT
Turnbull is stuffed on the economy. He may not even have a budget before an election.
He has stated plainly to the media in a presser where Labor can use the footage that the Liberals are bad economic managers.
He now has to prove that has changed. A lot harder given the time until the next election and the way he is falling in line with the far right even on economic policy from his answers today in QT
Phoenix – I never thought I’d read a green supporter saying that he supported the former managing director of Goldman Sachs in Australia and consiglieri of Kerry Packer. Let me pick myself up off the floor
Libs are gonna be very strongly tempted to rush to an election.
Well what a glorious day this is 15-9-15?
PPM Turnbull 70-24
Canning polling going from 4 point lead to 14 point lead
First QT and Turnbull silences the Opposition (all silently listening to his every word….almost in awe)
Is this all a dream or is this really happening? Did God just give me controls of the universe cos I couldn’t have asked for more.
“@samanthamaiden: RESIGNED BY FAX: @LaurieOakes reports @TonyAbbottMHR did not go to Government House to tender resignation. He faxed it.”
Bill Shorten has to find a way to cut through in articulating his parties policy differences moreso than getting personal.
He needs to outshine Malcolm in engaging the voters.
alias
“I suspect that for all his failings, Abbott will be true to his word and will not be a wrecker.”
He’s never been true to his word before and has always been a wrecker.
Good Luck with that!
[79
daretotread
I totally disagree.
Focusing on Turnbull backflips will LOSE votes, especially in the next few months, where he has a honeymoon. Save that for 6 months in when the gloss has worn off.]
I refer you to guytaur’s comment @ 81:
As I (and others) have already said, highlighting Turnbull’s backflips on marriage equality and climate change will damage his credibility, because he staked his reputation as a moderate Liberal on these two issues. He has now sold out to the right wing of his party, showing that his previous stance on these two issues was smoke and mirrors designed to make him look good. When push came to shove, he sold tout on hem for a shot at power. This tells us everything we need to know about Turnbull’s character.
Furthermore, this CANNOT be done in a few months, because he will have defined himself by then to the public and Labor would then be forced to play on his ground and terms. By doing it now, Labor can undermine Turnbull’s positioning at the centre, and in doing so, undermine his honeymoon period. The public is paying attention NOW and is trying to come to an understanding of Turnbull, so now is the perfect time for Labor to define him. Especially as he is pre-occupied with consolidating his position in the Liberal Party, and forming a new cabinet.
None of this is to say that Labor shouldn’t be careful when attacking Turnbull, of course it should, but it has to be done. And it should be done in conjunction with a strong policy offering.