Malcolm Turnbull form guide

On Malcolm Turnbull’s big day, a review of past polling for Turnbull specifically and the Liberal leadership in general.

To set the ball rolling on a new prime ministership, a walk through some highlights of Malcolm Turnbull’s polling record:

• On five occasions, pollsters asked how respondents would vote if Malcolm Turnbull were prime minister, by way of contrast with the headline results. On each occasion, the two-party vote for the Coalition under Turnbull was substantially higher – by 4% in an Essential Research poll in June 2011; by 7% and 8% in ReachTEL and AMR Research polls shortly after Kevin Rudd resumed the prime ministership in July 2013; and by 6% and 9% in Galaxy and ReachTEL polls immediately after the first Liberal Party spill vote in February (compared with 4% and 6% if Julie Bishop had been leader).

• The chart below shows trends in preferred Liberal leader polling during the period of Tony Abbott’s party leadership, encompassing 35 results from Morgan, Essential Research, ReachTEL, Ipsos and Nielsen. There has been some variability in the options available in these polls, but all featured Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop and Joe Hockey, with the exception of the two most recent Morgan results, which dropped Joe Hockey. Scott Morrison only became a regular in the middle of last year.

• The next chart records Malcolm Turnbull’s approval and disapproval trends in Newspoll while he was Opposition Leader. Unfortunately, the trend smooths out the dislocation that occurred following “Utegate” in June 2009, which you can get a clear sense of if you view the individual poll results marked by the circles. More recently, there have been three occasions when pollsters have gauged personal ratings for Turnbull. In January 2014, UMR Research respectively had his approval at 42% and disapproval at 30%. Essential Research recorded 44% approval and 31% disapproval in June 2014, which improved to 47% and 24% last month.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,164 comments on “Malcolm Turnbull form guide”

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  5. Urrrghhh, parliament,

    Couldn’t watch any longer; same old, same old.

    For Christ’s sake will no one take a step up.

    This is so unbelievably boring. The same useless theatre of nothing.

  6. “@TheKouk: Is Turnbull holding off changing Cabinet so the incumbents clock up their 2 years service? Which falls on Friday. #auspol”

  7. This is the stuff that will kill Turnbull. When he’s up telling everyone how good Direct Action is it comes across as less fair dinkum than Gillard speaking against SSM. His past words on it damn him. People who liked him because they were deluded that he was fair dinkum on it will just turn off him as a fraud.

    Labor will be taking an ETS to the next election. Is Turnbull seriously going to campaign against Labor on this? It’s just not going to fly no matter how urbane Turnbull might be.

  8. Diogenes@889

    One thing I agree with Abbott about is that it isn’t good for our country to view PMs as disposable over a short period of time.

    .

    The problem is he ‘took credit’ for the tearing down of two Labor PM’s.

    His words today, as usual, were self serving.

    He also used every trick he could think of to stack the deck in his own favour – even against his own party members when he was leader.

    BW is right – the second rotten apple has now been ‘liberated’.

    Also note the following was amongst the first things he said today –

    [ There will be no wrecking, no undermining, and no sniping. ]

    He then went on to undermine and snipe with his comments about treachery.

    abbott always wants a different easy set of rules for himself.

  9. Very weak answer from Turnbull to Butler’s question. If Direct Action is capped, then how can it possibly achieve substantive emissions reduction?

  18. Labor is doing brilliantly to pile pressure on Turnbull. If Labor can unnerve Turnbull and force him into convoluted back-flips over his past statements, Turnbull won’t look genuine to the public.

  20. Turnbulł is coming across as yet another pathetic bullshit artist. Different style same (lack of) substance.

    I really feel sorry for those who have vested any faith in this charlatan.

  21. ratsak @ 906

    Spot on. It is possible, of course, that Turnbull will go to Paris and come back with a much improved package, blaming international pressure. Especially if the other troglodyte, Harper, is kicked off the scene as well.

    But the more questions he is asked now about his support for Direct Action, the more he is locked into that bizarre program.

  23. dave #907
    [The problem is he ‘took credit’ for the tearing down of two Labor PM’s.]

    Which he shouldn’t have done, because almost nothing he did caused Labor’s leadershit troubles.

    Same goes for Bill Shorten.

  25. I have always said that turnbull is the most overrated politican ever and is purely an arrogant prick. I am being proven right so far.

  26. [850
    victoria

    briefly

    Big business is expecting Turnbull to make some big changes re tax in particular. We shall see if they are going to get their wish]

    The whole set-up needs to be reviewed and re-booted. Abbott was too weak to try. Turnbull is in an even weaker position. It will be interesting to see what if anything he’s prepared to attempt.

  28. Government scrambling furiously to avoid having to reckon with Hockey’s bombshell line from last night: Turnbull never object to the government’s economic policies in cabinet.

  32. [912
    Unitary State
    Labor is in total control this question time. Who would have thought.    ]

    Absolutely. Labor is setting up the groundwork for its election campaign in this question time.

  36. dave @ 907

    [Also note the following was amongst the first things he said today –

    There will be no wrecking, no undermining, and no sniping.

    He then went on to undermine and snipe with his comments about treachery.

    abbott always wants a different easy set of rules for himself.]

    I only picked up that bit of hypocrisy the second time around. I was too gobsmacked by his demand that the media not publish leaks without attribution – especially given the fact that this was the modus operandi of his office for the whose of his Prime Ministership.

  37. Jimmy Doyle

    I’m sure Abbott would prefer if people didn’t treat him like a joke, but that doesn’t mean that people will stop putting their onions out. And good riddance I say.

    What have you got against onions?

  39. “@TheKouk: Is Turnbull holding off changing Cabinet so the incumbents clock up their 2 years service? Which falls on Friday. #auspol”

    He sure is. He doesn’t want Tony Abbott creating havoc because he (Abbott) will miss miss out on a multi-million dollar pension.

    It might just persuade him (Abbott) to bike-ride out, graciously, or not.

    Anyway, where is Howard’s Coward? Wallowing in self-pity some where? He better not claim an allowance for today’s cowardly act. Just because he was rolled, the incompetent nincompoop, doesn’t make him eligible for a payout because he’s such a bully-boy h couldn’t even face up to his own failure.

  43. Is it possible that the polls saying the libs will get a bounce if Turnbull comes in are artificially high because:
    1. They don’t factor in the effect of the bloodshed;
    2. People were really saying they preferred Malcolm rather than would vote for him.
    3. People didn’t realise it would be the same-old same-old.

    If the Libs don’t get a boost well above 50, I think they’ll all be jumping off the Queens Terrace.

  44. Millennial

    [ Which he shouldn’t have done ]

    He did though, so did his party on numerous occasions – they openly boasted about it.

    Thats my point. Now, when the boot is on the other foot….etc

    abbott has gone through life with sharp elbows – only this time he was on the receiving end.

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