Malcolm Turnbull form guide

On Malcolm Turnbull’s big day, a review of past polling for Turnbull specifically and the Liberal leadership in general.

To set the ball rolling on a new prime ministership, a walk through some highlights of Malcolm Turnbull’s polling record:

• On five occasions, pollsters asked how respondents would vote if Malcolm Turnbull were prime minister, by way of contrast with the headline results. On each occasion, the two-party vote for the Coalition under Turnbull was substantially higher – by 4% in an Essential Research poll in June 2011; by 7% and 8% in ReachTEL and AMR Research polls shortly after Kevin Rudd resumed the prime ministership in July 2013; and by 6% and 9% in Galaxy and ReachTEL polls immediately after the first Liberal Party spill vote in February (compared with 4% and 6% if Julie Bishop had been leader).

• The chart below shows trends in preferred Liberal leader polling during the period of Tony Abbott’s party leadership, encompassing 35 results from Morgan, Essential Research, ReachTEL, Ipsos and Nielsen. There has been some variability in the options available in these polls, but all featured Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop and Joe Hockey, with the exception of the two most recent Morgan results, which dropped Joe Hockey. Scott Morrison only became a regular in the middle of last year.

• The next chart records Malcolm Turnbull’s approval and disapproval trends in Newspoll while he was Opposition Leader. Unfortunately, the trend smooths out the dislocation that occurred following “Utegate” in June 2009, which you can get a clear sense of if you view the individual poll results marked by the circles. More recently, there have been three occasions when pollsters have gauged personal ratings for Turnbull. In January 2014, UMR Research respectively had his approval at 42% and disapproval at 30%. Essential Research recorded 44% approval and 31% disapproval in June 2014, which improved to 47% and 24% last month.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,164 comments on “Malcolm Turnbull form guide”

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  1. guytaur = Turnbull needs to stop referring to interjections. Very poor form, and makes him look weak and rattled. I can’t believe that Turnbull actually asked what why Labor objected to the ssm referendum and then raised the cost issue himself!

  3. [Frederick Stanton
    Posted Tuesday, September 15, 2015 at 3:17 pm | PERMALINK
    “@TheKouk: Is Turnbull holding off changing Cabinet so the incumbents clock up their 2 years service? Which falls on Friday. #auspol”

    He sure is. He doesn’t want Tony Abbott creating havoc because he (Abbott) will miss miss out on a multi-million dollar pension.
    ]

    Any delay in doing a ministerial reshuffle presumably will not help Abbott since he has already resigned. Margie will just have to increase the fees in the child care centre and the daughters will need to send regular food parcels.

  5. “@sspencer_63: Weird the Liberal Party went all through that just to change the tie colour of the bloke implementing Abbott’s far right policies. #QT”

  6. As much as I think the Marriage act is the responsibility of the parliament, now that we have two pro-SSM leaders, the changes of it becoming law should be seen as being higher.

  8. Has Turnbull sold out on marriage equality by insisting on the silly $150 million plebiscite after they win the next election?

    Sure looks like it.

  14. JimmyDoyle@918

    Labor is doing brilliantly to pile pressure on Turnbull. If Labor can unnerve Turnbull and force him into convoluted back-flips over his past statements, Turnbull won’t look genuine to the public.

    Best part?

    The Libs can’t change leaders again. They have to make this one work, or fail.

  16. KevinOneSeven

    Turnbull specifically stated that the plebiscite will occur after the next election. The more I see the more I think that Turnbull has a FIGJAM attitude.

  22. Briefly
    Briefly,
    A red grape would be in order today, I think.

    Specifically a Penfolds Bin 170 Kalimna Limited Edition Shiraz 2010.

    Peel one for yourself while you are at it.

    🙂

  23. The prospect of SSM under Turnbull is no better than under Abbott. Is that what the LNP have offered up in this change of leadership; a more eloquent waiter offering the same shit sandwich?

  24. JimmyDoyle #966
    [Turnbull specifically stated that the SSM plebiscite will occur after the next election.]

    I suppose those pro-Marriage Equality “Save some Money. Vote Labor” Ads Labor’s secretly been making won’t go to waste after all.

  29. Just Me

    [ The Libs can’t change leaders again. They have to make this one work, or fail.]

    Gottliebsen – earlier today –

    [Bill Shorten’s plan is to create chaos in the Liberal Party on the basis of this split and any deviation by Turnbull from these matters will almost certainly result in the Labor leader becoming in the next prime minister.]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/9/15/national-affairs/ten-items-need-be-turnbulls-agenda

  34. Tom

    No, at least now we wont have a PM campaigning against it, despite it being a waste of money as its a matter for the parliament.

  36. MTBW

    If he is there the seat allocated is way up the back at the far end. Pretty much as far away from the speaker as you can get so not likely to be seen .

  37. Let’s not get too carried away. It was always likely that the period right after Turnbull’s ascension would provide ample opportunity to Labor, but it’s possible that this is the most profitable period and that those opportunities will diminish over time as (and if) Turnbull effects change.

  38. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@972

    Briefly
    Briefly,
    A red grape would be in order today, I think.

    Specifically a Penfolds Bin 170 Kalimna Limited Edition Shiraz 2010.

    Peel one for yourself while you are at it.

    If you want loyal service from your personal grape peeler, you will at least have to remember his name.

    And thanks for the offer, but I won’t peel one for myself today, mostly because I peeled several last night, and need a little recovery time.

  41. [978
    Just Me
    They can’t now. It is win under Turnbull, or move to the opposition benches.    ]

    You’re probably right, but I’m vindictively hoping that the RWNJs in the Liberals will cause maximal chaos, especially now that everyone is beginning to realise that Turnbull is a stuffed shirt with an inflated sense of his own ability.

  42. The SSM plebiscite was demanded by the Nats; Turnbull agreed. It’s a complete waste of money, given both the PM and LOTO are supportive and Turnbull won’t let the nutters in the party off the hook like Abbott did. But, it was the price Turnbull agreed to pay to get a quick agreement with the Nats on co-alition terms.

  43. We don’t really have Austerity in Australia, we have a government that seems confused about how to generate revenue and how to spend its current budget in a productive manner.

  45. oops. Just Me.
    My apologies.
    You are henceforth promoted to Keeper of the Wine Cellar, with full tasting responsibilities.

  48. [972
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Briefly
    Briefly,
    A red grape would be in order today, I think.

    Specifically a Penfolds Bin 170 Kalimna Limited Edition Shiraz 2010.

    Peel one for yourself while you are at it.

    :)]

    Sounds just right, Puff, and we do deserve it 🙂

  49. But that’s the point DisplayName. He needs to affect the change. No change and all the people who had hopes he’d be better will wonder why not just stick with Abbott.

    If he does affect the changes though how does he keep the RWNJs in the tent?

    Not counting chickens, but neither should anyone assume that Turnbull just fronts up to the next election with Abbott’s agenda and wins.

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