To set the ball rolling on a new prime ministership, a walk through some highlights of Malcolm Turnbull’s polling record:
• On five occasions, pollsters asked how respondents would vote if Malcolm Turnbull were prime minister, by way of contrast with the headline results. On each occasion, the two-party vote for the Coalition under Turnbull was substantially higher – by 4% in an Essential Research poll in June 2011; by 7% and 8% in ReachTEL and AMR Research polls shortly after Kevin Rudd resumed the prime ministership in July 2013; and by 6% and 9% in Galaxy and ReachTEL polls immediately after the first Liberal Party spill vote in February (compared with 4% and 6% if Julie Bishop had been leader).
• The chart below shows trends in preferred Liberal leader polling during the period of Tony Abbott’s party leadership, encompassing 35 results from Morgan, Essential Research, ReachTEL, Ipsos and Nielsen. There has been some variability in the options available in these polls, but all featured Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop and Joe Hockey, with the exception of the two most recent Morgan results, which dropped Joe Hockey. Scott Morrison only became a regular in the middle of last year.
• The next chart records Malcolm Turnbull’s approval and disapproval trends in Newspoll while he was Opposition Leader. Unfortunately, the trend smooths out the dislocation that occurred following “Utegate” in June 2009, which you can get a clear sense of if you view the individual poll results marked by the circles. More recently, there have been three occasions when pollsters have gauged personal ratings for Turnbull. In January 2014, UMR Research respectively had his approval at 42% and disapproval at 30%. Essential Research recorded 44% approval and 31% disapproval in June 2014, which improved to 47% and 24% last month.
mexicanbeemer
So the tens of millions Turnbull is prepared to spend to maybe resolve this question is a better option than simply agreeing to a free vote in parliament this afternoon? It would have taken all of 30 minutes to be introduced and passed if mistreat is half the man he pretends to be.
[987
Display Name
Let’s not get too carried away. It was always likely that the period right after Turnbull’s ascension would provide ample opportunity to Labor, but it’s possible that this is the most profitable period and that those opportunities will diminish over time as (and if) Turnbull effects change.]
That’s true. Turnbull will presumably get more comfortable in QT, and almost nobody watches QT anyway. However, as Shorten just said, Turnbull is fatally compromised by his right-wing MPs. He’s tying himself in knots trying to triangulate his previous statements and policy positions.
More importantly, his will NOT be able to implement any policies that would make this government more popular, because the conservatives will go nuts if he tries, and Turnbull probably wouldn’t want to anyway. Turnbull thinks he can sell the government’s policies better, but it’s the policies themselves that the country objects to.
[You’re probably right, but I’m vindictively hoping that the RWNJs in the Liberals will cause maximal chaos, especially now that everyone is beginning to realise that Turnbull is a stuffed shirt with an inflated sense of his own ability.]
Oh, don’t get me wrong. I would love nothing more than for them to do the mirror image of what Labor did: run endless leadershit brawls in public, and then swap back to Abbott about a month before the next due election in a bloody vindictive coup.
They’d be lucky to win enough seats to field a cricket team.
I don’t think there is any chance of Turnbull just adopting Abbott’s agenda to take to the next election.
I’m not saying he hasn’t necessarily sold his soul to get the support he needed, however I really have the feeling that, unlike Abbott, his motivation extends beyond simply adopting the mantle of power.
He’ll want to effect some kind of major policies in his own image.
Tom
We both might well support SSM as the main party leaders are said to support, however, Turnbull has promises a new type of government, now if after saying that he walked into the parliament and just junked everything the partyroom has agreed too, whilst we might like it, but it would have ended his leadership right there and then.
[ the quest to find anyone who supports Tony Abbott in Manly ]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/15/no-love-lost-the-quest-to-find-anyone-who-supports-tony-abbott-in-manly
It’s all downhill from here for Turnbull. If they changed leaders again it would not be back to Abbott. It would be on to Morrison.
Speers is excusing Tony for not bothering to turn up.
Seriously!!
The problem for Turnbull is that he has to win an election, and fairly convincingly, in order to stamp his authority on the party’s policy.
A very big mountain to climb.
[1004
shiftaling
He’ll want to effect some kind of major policies in his own image.]
Yes, the neoliberal agenda, which as Labor has pointed out, he fully supports.
[If they changed leaders again it would not be back to Abbott. It would be on to Morrison.]
I agree with that. Still don’t think it would cut it though. Morrison would be better waiting until they lose, and letting Turnbull take the blame, then taking over.
[1009
Just Me
The problem for Turnbull is that he has to win an election, and fairly convincingly, in order to stamp his authority on the party’s policy.]
But in order to be able to win an election convincingly, Turnbull has to dump all those policies which are sacred articles of faith to the Liberals (particularly the conservatives), but which are toxic to the public.
I think we’ve uncovered Turnbull’s conundrum.
Shiftaling,
No doubt he’ll want some kind of major policy to differentiate himself from Abbott, because on SSM and Climate Change he’s tied himself to the old policies.
No doubt it will be in the economic field and probably tax. We’ll see if it’s just another re-run of pushing the burden on the poor and if people fall for it.
But I suspect he’s going to lose a lot of lustre very quickly over SSM, Carbon, and other areas where he has had to yield to the nutters. That will eat at his trustworthiness and make it harder for him to effectively advocate for reform. And if that does happen and he struggles in the polls just watch the right eat him alive. The nutters and their media would love the chance to rip Turnbull to pieces even if it delivered Shorten the PM job.
[oops. Just Me.
My apologies.
You are henceforth promoted to Keeper of the Wine Cellar, with full tasting responsibilities.]
Cheers
Peeled grapes for all! Choose your own colour.
[I think we’ve uncovered Turnbull’s conundrum.]
And it tastes delicious. 🙂
Jimmy
That’s exactly what I said before the spill. turbull has to find a way to please the public and the RWNJs. He may have invented the internet and won the biggest legal case in world history, but I don’t think even he can do that.
/sarc
Just Me
[Peeled grapes for all! ]
Seedless please.
Labor very quiet in Parliament today
poroti
I wonder whether he would resign as soon as all his entitlements are due.
This spill would have injured his ego and caused pain and being a spoiled child I wonder how long he would last.
Another reason for Turnbull’s popularity, of course, may well be that he hasn’t really been in the public eye for the last two years. While Joe was going down like the Hindenburg and Tones was impaling himself on lies, the voting population had to construct some sort of “hero” or alternative and it was Malcolm tucked away in Communications (which, despite the NBN catastrophe, has got little attention).
[1013
ratsak
But I suspect he’s going to lose a lot of lustre very quickly over SSM, Carbon, and other areas where he has had to yield to the nutters.]
Agreed, and this is exactly the time when the public is going to be paying it’s closest attention, because everyone is going to e trying to understand their new PM. And what they’ll see is someone back-flipping on their old principles and selling out to the far right.
CC has lost its political impact, increasing power bills will make any policy that increases power bills very difficult to sell
SSM is an issue which isn’t a first order issue, the lack of clear action on it was hurting Abbott more than it will hurt other leaders due to his irrational opposition to it yet having a gay sister
At this stage the economy is shaping up to be the biggest issue at the next election, Climate change might become a bigger issue after the Paris summit
The FTA with China is also a key issue but that forms part of the economic debate.
MTBW – Tones knows absolutely no life outside of politics. I seriously believe he will hang on.
OK
Here is what I expect Turnbull to do (if he wants to win)
1. Commit to building the subs in SA/Vic – probably save at least 2 seats in SA and 2 in Victoria
2. Commit to a new age manufacturing policy if seed funds for new cutting edge industries {preference for in Victoria)
3. Renegotiate the deal with Qld so that they support the Gold Coast rapid transit extension and probably the cross city rail – 3 seats saved.
Not sure about WA but I am sure there is something.
[Seedless please.]
Of course. What kind of barbarian do you take me for?
I don’t think Margie would let Tony quit. It will be bad enough having him home on weekends.
Briefly
That you do Briefly, that you do. Join me in a toast to you and your colleagues.
Dareto – He has to provide guarantees that Chinese Labor will not flood into Australia under the Chafta. Surely, he will close that loophole. That will be a very interesting test.
Just Me@1009
As he stands at the moment – with blood on his hands – that of a first term PM, no less – he has no mandate from voters and its appears he is on a short leash policy wise from the coalition.
Plus his much lauded “stands for something” is like a pair of knickers down around his ankles.
I’m always amazed that people are fooled by him.
Paul Sheehan: It’s all Peta’s fault.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-sacking-of-tony-abbott-was-personal-it-was-also-about-the-removal-of-peta-credlin-20150915-gjmv0r.html
Kevin
If Turnbull could do that and I see no reason why he can’t protect local jobs then that agreement should be very popular but currently it has a glaring hole which the ALP have rightly pointed out.
He could save more seats by dumping MTM and going full bore on fibre to the home
beemer
You are so wrong its funny.
SSM Not a first order issue. Yeah that is why in first QT its got the most attention out of all the questions.
Its the no brainer are you listening to the people issue
[Tones knows absolutely no life outside of politics. I seriously believe he will hang on.]
He certainly is no fit to the real world, and needs the brawler’s adrenaline hit every day.
Also think he really wants another 4 days as PM on the books to snag the full retirement package and salve his wounded pride.
ratsak & JD
In this instance, the change I refer to is within the Liberal party. His challenge is not just to engage better (than Abbott) with his colleagues, but to persuade/lead his party to engage better with the rest of Australia.
He says he will be more collaborative/consultative within the party. What about people outside of the party? With quite different values/philosophies? He says he will seek to advocate and persuade. What if people are not persuaded? Will he and the party remain obdurate as under Abbott? Do they even entertain the possibility that they, not everyone else, may be persuaded?
Naturally it would have been better for him to make that (a sincere attempt by the party to change) a condition of his leadership, though it may have increased the risk of losing the ballot. That he could, would or did not, does not bode well for him. Nor does the public insistence by various persons that he adapt to the party rather than vice versa. However, as leader, post-ballot, he may have greater success over time – assuming he tries.
Jimmy Doyle at 1012 – no argument from me, I certainly wouldn’t vote for them.
Nonetheless, I’m still very happy that he has replaced Abbott!
I think the Coalition would be happy if Turnbull wins the next election at any level given where they have been sitting in the polls for the past 2 years.
I also don’t think Turnbull has to work to the schedule PB’ers set for him because I doubt most PB’ers are representative of swinging voters in Australia. For example I think most swinging voters would be satisfied with a plebiscite on SSM in 1 to 2 years post the next election and don’t see SSM as a deciding issue at present.
It really will come down to the economy and leadership.
david
[I also don’t think Turnbull has to work to the schedule PBers set for him]
Lies! 😉
Citizen wrote:
If he wants to stay in parliament then both may not be that far from the truth. Abbott remortgaged their house after the 2007 loss because he couldn’t live on a back-benchers then ‘paltry’ ~$140k and I doubt he could have paid it back yet given he wasn’t LOL and PM for that long.
Guytaur
What I mean by that was that its an issue but its the kind of issue that is pretty much decided in the public’s mind, whereby the state of the economy is the main issue.
If Turnbull came out tomorrow and said that he opposed it then he would have serious problems explaining that.
ASX down almost 1.5% as a ‘welcome’ to turnbull – after a basically flat result last night on Wall Street.
dwh
No wrong. See the reaction to the plebiscite idea. No rewriting history is going to work
We know what the public thinks about SSM. They want it out done and dusted. They will punish in the ballot box those delaying it.
beemer
See reaction. You are wrong. I am getting same reaction I got first time around.
[1022
mexicanbeemer
SSM is an issue which isn’t a first order issue, the lack of clear action on it was hurting Abbott more than it will hurt other leaders due to his irrational opposition to it yet having a gay sister]
Except that Turnbull staked his reputation as a moderate on supporting marriage equality. It stands out in the mind of the public as one of Turnbull’s principled stances. He opposed a plebiscite, and now he’s backflipped. This is just like when Gillard opposed ssm on the grounds that she believed in “traditional marriage” – it looks utterly and hopelessly contrived.
Having said that, I agree the real fight will be on the economy. But Turnbull’s backflip on ssm goes to his character.
[He could save more seats by dumping MTM and going full bore on fibre to the home]
If he did so, and did it properly, that would go a long way to saving him.
But some very awkward explaining to do in the meantime to the voters over his history with it, and Rupert The Increasingly Ignored certainly won’t be happy about it.
Just Me@1025
😆
great comeback!
eg
“@senthorun: Dear PM @TurnbullMalcolm, just legislate #marriageequality now and use the money for a plebiscite to fund refugee resettlement. Ta. #auspol”
slothy
If Tony had been smart he would be still paying the mortgage at the level he was in 2007, that would have shortened the life of the loan quite considerable.
K17
Yes I agree. Seems a sensible solution to close the loop.
guytaur we are all entitled to our opinion and mine is that SSM is not deal breaker for the next election. It will happen regardless of who wins the next election. Both parties have a position and I think most people are happy either way.