After an anomalous drop to 51-49 last week, the Labor two-party lead in the Essential Research rolling average is back to 52-48 this week, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one), 11% for the Greens (up one) and 2% for Palmer United (up one). Further questions find the Liberal Party rated too right wing by 34%, too left wing by 7% and about right by 26%, whereas only 20% think Labor too left wing compared with 16% for too right wing, and 28% about right. The poll also features an occasional question on best party to handle various issues, which finds the Coalition improving from a low point when the question was last asked in February, with the biggest movement in education, health, environment and climate change, generally smaller ones in its economic areas of strength, and no movement on national security and asylum seekers. A question on the ABC’s Q&A program finds is to be considerably more popular than its critics in the government, with 46% rating it good and 11% poor (including 37% and 23% among Coalition voters). After given a precis of the two parties’ National Broadband Network policies, 38% favoured Labor’s and 29% the government’s. On the economy, 35% rate it as headed in the right direction against 41% for the wrong direction, essentially unchanged on May.
Jackol
I have not seen the comments by Hawke. I have heard the Crean comments.
He does not contradict Federal Labor. The reports on that interview make out however that he does.
Crean calls for the parliamentary process to sort it out. That is negotiate based on facts.
Tony Abbott’s performance as PM is Tony Windsor’s best argument for re election.
He just needs a picture of Abbott and the words “Told you so” and people will stop holding 2010 against him. That’s if they still do.
imacca @ 559
I thought there would be an exception somewhere, anywhere, to what was a bleeding obvious set up. But nah. Interesting that the Federal Labor Party people like Shorten and Plibersek knew to keep away from the issue like it was a bomb about to explode (which it was).
DTT
I had a lot of sympathy for Rudd. I understood the shock he would be in. I hoped he could recover and do a good FM job, and
make something of it. He was young enough to make a comeback.
He either had no understanding or no care of the people he hurt with his leaking, and the leaking by his spear-carriers. The ALP was in the fight of its life, against a monster in Abbott. The measure of a person is how they handle adversity. We have numerous examples of people who dug deep and made good come from bad. Rudd i not one of them, and the careers he ruined are littered behind him.
His time in Qld, razor-cutting the public service, is a case in point.
So, do not give me tears for a man who dished it out but could not take it.
That is my serve for this conversation, as I am not turning thia into a ping pong match.
644
Rates Analyst
The forecast made at budget time last year was 2.5% (real). Nominal was forecast @ 3.0%, now running at 1.8%
There’s no question the only thing standing between a recession and the economy is the budget deficit. Rather than relaxing policy, Hockey and Cormann have been tightening. This is intrinsically high risk.
Dio @ 592
[Shorten is looking a bit like a shag on a rock opposing the China FTA.]
I thought you were smarter than to fall for Liberal Party propaganda.
Shorten wants one section revisited – the one that gives generous, poorly managed, entry and work rights to Chinese nationals that have the capacity to take jobs from Australians and drive down pay and conditions.
That is not the same as opposing a wide-ranging comprehensive FTA. Unless you are a Liberal welcoming, finally, a wedge that works.
The Government seems to misunderstand the risks of recession, which arise from very long-run pressures. These pressures would make it very difficult to bring a recession to an end if one were to take hold. We face an uncomfortably high risk of secular stagnation, forced on us by declining terms of trade, feeble global growth, very high private sector debts and recessed investment. There are quite a few things we could and should be doing to re-base the economy. Abbott and Hockey have done none of them.
Most recessions in Australia in the post-war period have been cyclical and short. We have to navigate in a very changed environment – one where secular forces are much stronger than the cyclical.
briefly @ 655
I agree with most of that. I’m less sure Hockey and Cormann have been tightening. There’s been a substantial increase in Gov spending. That might be the automatic stabilisers or it might be deliberate.
Don’t necessarily equate what a Treasurer says with what a Treasurer is actually doing. The GDP data says there’s been a big increase in Govenrment spending.
briefly
Just heard Chikorovski (sp?) on The Drum say that ‘everybody out there’ wants the CHFTA – cattle farmers etc. I immediately thought of your post.
ABC pushing the line that only Shorten wants to put the brakes on, and trying to bring xenophobia into the picture. And of course Tony has grabbed at the opportunity to say that Shorten is in bed with CFMEU on this.
@ 657
Global growth isn’t that feeble. It’s just feeble in our major trading partners. That’s a quibble perhaps.
The risk of recession is real though. China is weakening percetptibly and if they continue to do so we can’t stop a recession here without MASSIVE government spending.
658
Rates Analyst
Yes, I’ve noticed the lift in public spending. It’s helped keep the economy out of recession. Nonetheless, spending has been rising less quickly than planned.
RA
[a big increase in Government spending]
But did they think before they spent millions? Borderfarce?
That’s an interesting point… Wasn’t aware of that.
What’s the basis for the comparison? GDP data isn’t the way to do it. And the AOFM has been borrowing at a very sharp clip so there’s money going out the door, but I don’t know where to look for proof of that.
Appealing to the Bludger lounges collective memory , wasn’t Bob Hawke doing some lobbying or some such for Chinese firms a few years back ? Ta
Lizzie
That’s not entirely revelant for GDP this quarter.
Inefficient spending (particularly inefficient investment) penalises future growth, but not current growth overly much.
In fact, giving a bunch of money to Australian citizens as pay would be a good way to provide “helicopter” stimulus. But there is enough time to plan it out better for better long run options of course.
poroti
Yes!
[You can add the QLD Premier to that list as well now. I think it is going to get really hard for Federal Labor to hold the line on this issue.]
What is in it for the State Labor people but not the Feds? It must be more money somehow.
For Confessions….
ABC News Perth @abcnewsPerth 29m29 minutes ago
Commodity markets at rock bottom, recovery ahead says Barnett at Africa mining conference http://ab.co/1ihtkiR
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/another-patient-rushed-from-the-cosmetic-institute-to-hospital-emergency-unit-20150902-gjde2t.html
[663
Rates Analyst
That’s an interesting point… Wasn’t aware of that.]
You can see it in the monthly Dept of Finance Reports. I’ve been checking intermittently. They have clearly been trying to pick a fine line between growing the deficit and growing the economy. I reckon they can see practically from one day to the next what’s happening to income growth, employment numbers, profits. They can use the real-time to modulate their approach to spending. There’s no room for error when the economy is growing at 0.8%pa annualised, when unemployment is edging up, when jobs growth (especially, hours worked) has been so poor.
Can we deport Nick Kyrgios?
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/us-open-2015-john-mcenroe-lashes-nick-kyrgios-i-hope-he-learns-from-these-bonehead-moves-20150902-gjdecv.html
[659
lizzie
briefly
Just heard Chikorovski (sp?) on The Drum say that ‘everybody out there’ wants the CHFTA – cattle farmers etc. I immediately thought of your post.]
They all need to do the hands-on, feet-on-the-ground, 3D course in China 101.
I should offer lessons.
China is not what it appears to be.
Briefly 657
I have twitlonger your excellent comment which I fully agree with on twitter, with kudos to you on your twitter handle, getting replies and retweets already 🙂
An earlier economic(?) commentator on one of the TV channels said that the Govt. has been spending quite a lot on defence, and this has contriuted significantly to keeping the numbers up. Without that spend the figures would be far worse.
Tony Windsor – please consider running in North Sydney. We have returned a strong independent before (Ted Mack).
ABC radio is repeatedly playing the GDP result as the leading news item. Considering the WA economy is relatively depressed, this is likely to register with the voters of Canning.
I guess we will soon find out if this is the case. I will be helping on the Canning Campaign phone bank tonight and tomorrow night and door-knocking over the weekend. Hopefully I will have interesting material to report to PB.
673
mari
Cheers mari!
I can compose. You can publish. 🙂
[674
booleanbach
An earlier economic(?) commentator on one of the TV channels said that the Govt. has been spending quite a lot on defence, and this has contriuted significantly to keeping the numbers up. Without that spend the figures would be far worse.]
Yes…building naval craft.
“Yes…building naval craft.”
Wouldn’t that be an import and a subtraction?
[Tony Windsor – please consider running in North Sydney. We have returned a strong independent before (Ted Mack).]
He could set up in Hunters Hill with the Hockeys and the Obeids
Don
Of course professional journalists always know better than locals.
After all they had a 20 minute bus stop in Tamworth and Armidale 20 years ago to absorb local ‘feelings’.
They know it all.
Briefly 677
getting bit of attention and happy to be publisher 😀
MTBW
I don’t know what they are doing wrong at the Cosmetic Institute but they seem to have a lot of adverse events which are very very uncommon, like local anaesthetic toxicity (which I have never seen and only met one surgeon who has seen it).
[679
Rates Analyst
“Yes…building naval craft.”
Wouldn’t that be an import and a subtraction?]
Apparently not…building in Melbourne and Adelaide perhaps…
[“Morrison pioneered human trafficking on behalf of the Australian Government.”]
No, I think you’ll find it was Labor that pioneered paying people smugglers to send boats to Australia.
They couldn’t possibly be paying them to stop sending boats to Australia because 52,000 people arrived so it’s the only logical conclusion
Rates…I think one of the most notable developments since 2008 has been the collapse in the growth rate in global trade. Transnational trade in manufactures and associated investment between the advanced economies was responsible for sustained lifts in real wages and industrial production for many decades. This phase seems to have run its course. Wage growth has decelerated or reversed. Industrial production and associated FDI have lost their impetus. Resources now sit idle in most industrial economies and excess capacity is endemic. Is this a reflection of the dominance of the financial sector? Is it mainly a demographic phenomenon? Is it a consequence of trade, investment and currency warring?
Low growth and fairly high unemployment numbers mean interest cuts which will give the Government a bit of a boost.
I think a .25% cut has already been factored in for later this year or early next year
[685
TrueBlueAussie
“Morrison pioneered human trafficking on behalf of the Australian Government.”]
Australia has the distinction of being just one of two countries that traffic humans as an article of State policy. North Korea do it for financial gain. Abbott does it for political gain.
Abbott has made the taking and exhibition of political hostages into a political weapon. He uses the exploitation and humiliation of women and children to commend himself to the Australian people. He has become the despot of Port Jackson, the brute of Luna Park.
[Low growth and fairly high unemployment numbers mean interest cuts which will give the Government a bit of a boost.]
The majority would like lower unemployment to boost the economy.
Even without Abbott’s spectacular ineptitude, economic conditions are conspiring to achieve a one-term Abbott government.
briefly,
rather than repeat the same thing ad naseum again can you please explain why Labor paid people smugglers but we had 52,000 people rock up?
Was this for their lunch money on the way here or something?
[687
TrueBlueAussie
Low growth and fairly high unemployment numbers mean interest cuts which will give the Government a bit of a boost.]
yeah, right.
Low growth, poor labour demand, rising unemployment, weak public finance, recessed conditions in capital markets and currency depreciation mean household incomes are getting kicked around. The lucky voters of Canning will soon get to express their views about these trends – trends that reveal the complete fiscal incompetence of the worst government in Australian history.
TBA, I sometimes read your posts without noticing the name on top and then think “that’s so illogical that it must be from TBA”. Just did it again with your 685.
No one seemed to remember when I mentioned the anti-unions ad shown in the ’07 election.
Here is reference to it.
[… 19 business groups, led by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Business Council of Australia, which are spending $11 million on the advertising campaign…
Three ads have already aired, one depicting three union heavies storming into a workplace while horror movie-style music plays….
which is being directed by the Liberal Party polling and strategy agency Crosby-Textor.]
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/antiunion-ads-criticised/2007/08/17/1186857771553.html
For TBA:
Mark Di Stefano @MarkDiStef 11h11 hours ago
German football fans hold up these amazing banners last weekend. Imagine that happening in Australia…
[691
TrueBlueAussie]
1% of the world’s population is displaced by war. In some cases, they are wars that we helped to start. That is the single most significant factor in the forced migration of refugees.
We could do far worse than to induct 100,000 a year into the permanent population. Instead, they are trafficked into captivity and exploitation; into shame, humiliation and despair by a decadent Government.
Dio
The rumour is they are using deep sedation without protecting the airway.
Surely they will be shutdown now.
Correct, High Unemployment and low growth is bad for the Government I don’t disagree there. It was probably one of the main reasons Campbell Newman got kicked out because as always “it’s the economy stupid”
But interest rates are now the lowest they have been in living history and that is definately a plus for the Government.
“… Labor paid people smugglers but we had 52,000 people rock up…”
You have a source for these claims?
I didn’t want to respond to TBA, but we’ve been right thought this distortion of the facts before. Labor paid for Intelligence about people smugglers in order to catch them. Normal Intel work. They weren’t paid to fill boats and bring them here.