Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll by Galaxy lands well in line with the broader trend in pointing to a formidable swing of 8% to Labor.

Today’s Sunday Mail in Queensland publishes federal voting intention figures from the Galaxy poll that produced the state results you can read about in the post immediately below this one. The federal results are broadly similar to the state ones, and likewise in alignment with the current Queensland reading of BludgerTrack, in crediting Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, which represents an 8% swing compared with the 2013 election result. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (compared with 45.7% in 2013), 37% for Labor (29.8%), 10% for the Greens (6.2%) and 3% for Palmer United (11.0%). The poll also provides a second encouraging personal result for Bill Shorten following his improved rating in last weekend’s Ipsos poll, with 40% rating him the federal leader with the “best plan for Queensland” compared with 34% for Tony Abbott – a question that produced a 42-40 split in favour of Abbott when last posed in the wake of the budget in May. The poll had a sample of 800 respondents, and was presumably conducted late in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,060 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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  2. How much is heydon Patong himself for every day he ponders his position. Great gig hey – I do my best thinking in the surf or gardening, I’d love to get paid for that.

  3. Another bit of bias in the commentary. Wilkinson implies that the Rudd rules were designed to protect Shorten’s leadership, whereas they were designed to protect whoever was elected leader.

    Another crying journo starved of her addiction to leadershit.

  6. Heh. I’m sure Rudd was just itching to really shore up Bill Shorten’s future leadership when he set up those rules. Yep. Kevin’s a big Bill fan, I bet. Couldn’t wait to do him a favour.

  7. [Andrew Landeryou
    Andrew Landeryou – ‏@landeryou

    #TURC going wrong and ALP national conference victories have conspired to ruin this anti-Shorten #4corners piece #auspol
    4:17 AM – 24 Aug 2015]

  8. TPOF@953

    Another bit of bias in the commentary. Wilkinson implies that the Rudd rules were designed to protect Shorten’s leadership, whereas they were designed to protect whoever was elected leader.

    Another crying journo starved of her addiction to leadershit.

    You are over-analysing.

  9. sceptic – As you point out, among the exquisite dilemmas that Heydon has is considering what appeal judges will do. The moment he makes his decision his career (and legacy) is out of his hands. If he thinks they’ll probably down him, wouldn’t it be smarter to fall on his own sword, rather than get smashed by his brethren?

  10. TPOF@955

    Breaking ranks with his former Labor colleagues, piper Mar’n Ferguson plays the tune he is paid for.

    Although I would have preferred he STFU, he did make some valid points that the ALP needs to address.

  11. Overall view – as bad as I thought it would be. I haven’t been keen on calls to dump Mar’n but he really needs to be locked in a room with Latham. And the key thrown away.

  13. [You are over-analysing.]

    No doubt you also accept Erica’s assurance that the Government never, ever imagined that the Witch Hunt would be looking at Bill Shorten.

  14. The 4Corners program will confirm in the publics mind that Bill Shorten is shifty, conniving and self-interested.

    But it won’t shift anyone from the opinions they had of him before the episode.

    Abbott is Shortens best asset.

  15. [ I’m sure Rudd was just itching to really shore up Bill Shorten’s future leadership when he set up those rules. Yep. Kevin’s a big Bill fan, I bet. Couldn’t wait to do him a favour.]
    Yeah. The Rudd Rules were always designed to benefit Rudd.

    Thankfully he’s no longer in Caucus.

  17. TPOF@963

    You are over-analysing.


    No doubt you also accept Erica’s assurance that the Government never, ever imagined that the Witch Hunt would be looking at Bill Shorten.

    Nope!

    He lied.

  19. Isn’t P.V.O the former Edith Cowan Teachers’ College instructor who had to have help to write an embarrassingly sycophantic, hero worshiping treatise on the wonderfulness of John Winston Howard?

    And, having won the gratitude of the Liberal Party and Rupert {including elevation to sycophant in waiting to the Australian and various News Limited alternative universe TV programs), isn’t he the same trumped up wannabe who pursued Julie Bishop for months on end over allegations of plagiarism, before again becoming her bestest buddy?

    And isn’t he the same individual who has the stupidity of coming to a political blog like this and plagiarising the bon mots of a poster, almost word for word, and thinking he won’t be sprung?

    And you know, the reason I’m writing this is because of my certain knowledge that he will be reading it.

  20. confessions@965


    Yeah. The Rudd Rules were always designed to benefit Rudd.

    Thankfully he’s no longer in Caucus.

    Yeah, right.
    As he was on his way out you dunce.
    Just can’t help yourself. 🙁

  21. I didn’t think the 4C program was all that bad for Shorten. Agree with most of the comments on particular errors, etc. but there wren’t any real killer points. The only threatening bit is the possible testimony from the company negotiator but I think that will probably be a bit of a damp squib, especially as Shorten would probably have to be given a chance to reply and would do so pretty effectively.

    However, the overall impression was of an ambitious person who started out very aggressive but learned to be moderate to get good results for his members – a fair bit to like in that I think. Also came out that he had a lot of contact with real people doing real jobs – not really the stereotypical apparatchik who’s never seen the outside of a smoke filled room.

    Maybe I just have rose coloured glasses, but I seem to be getting more impressed with Shorten the more I see of him.

  22. ajm@971

    I didn’t think the 4C program was all that bad for Shorten. Agree with most of the comments on particular errors, etc. but there wren’t any real killer points. The only threatening bit is the possible testimony from the company negotiator but I think that will probably be a bit of a damp squib, especially as Shorten would probably have to be given a chance to reply and would do so pretty effectively.

    However, the overall impression was of an ambitious person who started out very aggressive but learned to be moderate to get good results for his members – a fair bit to like in that I think. Also came out that he had a lot of contact with real people doing real jobs – not really the stereotypical apparatchik who’s never seen the outside of a smoke filled room.

    Maybe I just have rose coloured glasses, but I seem to be getting more impressed with Shorten the more I see of him.

    I agree.

  25. I don’t think Labor or Bill Shorten will be too worried about tonight’s 4C. There was nothing new, mostly rehashing what was already in the public domain. He’s a smart operator, he’s highly ambitious. Like every other successful politician.

  31. The great irony about Latham’s rant at the Melbourne Writers Festival, is half the left-wing journos in the room watching him probably backed him for PM a decade ago.

  32. ajm @ 971

    Nothing new. Not going to get headlines in the press or the commercial stations.

    I have no views on Shorten as a person, other than the fact that he is fiendishly ambitious. But I’m very impressed by his political achievements. Getting the NDIS into the legislative program (and getting such a comprehensive range of supporters that Abbott felt constrained to not oppose it), pulling the party together and keeping it united in opposition, keeping his head and his cool despite every provocation and threat thrown at him and his party by Abbott, keeping his head through two intense days of aggressive cross-examination by an SC and coming out safely from the national conference are all achievements that point to a very good PM in the making.

  34. [No, not really.]

    I haven’t seen the program, but I do know that twitter is not a reliable indicator or predictor of general community consensus.

    For a start most people aren’t even watching 4C tonight.

  35. [Q&A. Oh dear. Five people talking about their favourite topics: themselves.]

    Seems to be mostly what passes for entertainment these days.

  37. [The great irony about Latham’s rant at the Melbourne Writers Festival, is half the left-wing journos in the room watching him probably backed him for PM a decade ago.]

    Sadly all the right wing journalists who backed Abbott for PM just a few years now know what a Latham PM would be like. 2004 was the only time I have ever looked back and concluded I voted the wrong way.

  38. [Bree
    ….The great irony about Latham’s rant at the Melbourne Writers Festival, is half the left-wing journos in the room watching him probably backed him for PM a decade ago.]

    Not to mention nearly every blogger here probably supported him then and would have been telling everyone how stupid they were if they weren’t going to vote for Latham.

    ….just as they did for Rudd
    …then Gillard
    …then Rudd
    …and now they do for Shorten

  39. I can’t think of a single MSM ‘left wing’ journalist.

    Not Laura Tingle, no one from the Gradian [wait half a mo – there is that bloke Jason someone nee QLD and USA, he might count as a ‘lefty’- nobody at the ABC and that is taking account of Red Kerry, absolutely no-one at Murdochistan – some might count Philip Adams – and no-one at Fairfax.
    I suppose the closest I could hget was occasional writer Anne Summers but really people would have jog my memory and stretch the definition of ‘left’ to get just a few candidates.

  40. or ‘is expected to’, which isn’t really anything new. But strangely published to coincide with the end of 4 corners

  43. Does anyone here know who is paying for the unions’ legal representatives at the Royal Commission?

    If they are having to cover the costs themselves, things could get even more interesting if the Royal Commissioner recuses himself, because the unions would then seem to have a reasonable argument that they shouldn’t be out of pocket for a Royal Commission which has failed purely because of the actions of the Royal Commissioner himself.

  44. Happiness@988

    Bree
    ….The great irony about Latham’s rant at the Melbourne Writers Festival, is half the left-wing journos in the room watching him probably backed him for PM a decade ago.


    Not to mention nearly every blogger here probably supported him then and would have been telling everyone how stupid they were if they weren’t going to vote for Latham.

    ….just as they did for Rudd
    …then Gillard
    …then Rudd
    …and now they do for Shorten

    I didn’t vote for Latham, Rudd or Gillard.

    I voted for my very worthy local ALP candidate.

  46. pedant@993

    Does anyone here know who is paying for the unions’ legal representatives at the Royal Commission?

    If they are having to cover the costs themselves, things could get even more interesting if the Royal Commissioner recuses himself, because the unions would then seem to have a reasonable argument that they shouldn’t be out of pocket for a Royal Commission which has failed purely because of the actions of the Royal Commissioner himself.

    The unions are paying their legal fees, of course.

  47. [bemused
    …I didn’t vote for Latham, Rudd or Gillard.

    I voted for my very worthy local ALP candidate.]

    Thus, to be consistent, you would recommend that everyone vote for the best local candidate, rather than vote based on what they think about Abbott, yeah?
    :devil:

  50. [Martin Pakula
    Martin Pakula – Verified account ‏@MartinPakulaMP

    So. Ferguson’s tried to do as much damage as possible to a Labor leader. Odd. I don’t remember him ever putting heat on the Libs #4corners
    4:29 AM – 24 Aug 2015
    20 RETWEETS27 FAVORITES]

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