Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll by Galaxy lands well in line with the broader trend in pointing to a formidable swing of 8% to Labor.

Today’s Sunday Mail in Queensland publishes federal voting intention figures from the Galaxy poll that produced the state results you can read about in the post immediately below this one. The federal results are broadly similar to the state ones, and likewise in alignment with the current Queensland reading of BludgerTrack, in crediting Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, which represents an 8% swing compared with the 2013 election result. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (compared with 45.7% in 2013), 37% for Labor (29.8%), 10% for the Greens (6.2%) and 3% for Palmer United (11.0%). The poll also provides a second encouraging personal result for Bill Shorten following his improved rating in last weekend’s Ipsos poll, with 40% rating him the federal leader with the “best plan for Queensland” compared with 34% for Tony Abbott – a question that produced a 42-40 split in favour of Abbott when last posed in the wake of the budget in May. The poll had a sample of 800 respondents, and was presumably conducted late in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,060 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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  1. Diogenes:

    [I’m betting Heydon will stay. If there is a market on it, I’m in big.]

    Maybe you could get set with the CMFEU.

  6. [898
    Diogenes

    I’m betting Heydon will stay. If there is a market on it, I’m in big.]

    He should quit…but probably, on his past record, he won’t. Good. He can continue to make a complete fool of himself and of his sponsor, the most transparently incompetent person ever to represent himself as PM.

  7. Well you did very well even if you don’t have a New Zealand accent*

    (*perhaps it was the white wine I had tonight?)

  8. Have had the smelling salts applied and have overcome the vapours and the swoon.

    It has occurred to me that I can’t remember a word that Mr Bowe actually said!

    There are rumours that people are collecting toilet seat lids as souvenirs in the immediate vicinity of the interview.

  9. posted earlier today from Richard Ackland in the Guardian …

    In other words, if the commissioner’s decision on Tuesday is to stay put, the unions’ next step could well be an application directly to the high court, under section 72 of the Constitution.

    I imagine that consideration would be in commissioner’s mind as he considers his verdict. Heydon might think it better to disqualify himself rather than for his former colleagues on the high court to do it for him.

  10. [896
    confessions

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 37m37 minutes ago
    Reading tea leaves I know, but taking more time to decide sounds like he’s trying to firm up his reasons for staying.

    http://m.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/dyson-heydon-postpones-decision-on-disqualifying-himself-from-inquiry/story-fn59niix-1227496807492 …

    Or riding out the storm until the media crowds around the next scandal. How else could Heydon’s prevaricating be possibly interpreted?]

    Though he thinks he’s specially gifted, the word is Heydon does not have the full toolbox these days. He’s in something of a world of his own.

  11. silentmajority

    That is a good question in that I wonder if ‘expert opinion’ is paid for . Especially all the expert opinion provided by the IPA .

  13. Newspoll looms.

    I reckon 54% or 55% to ALP – ignoring MoE and natural variability, [I mean who knows what the real numbers are out there].

    I’m guessing that will be against the tide if informed thinking.
    So why 55%?

    1. Adani and the distortion of the COALition and the media.
    2. Multiple leaks from inside government exposing disunity and infighting and the insincerity of the daily ‘narrative’. Abbott down, Shorten up.
    3.Manus and Nauru – again. Eventually the enormity of what is going on there will sink in to the conscience of more of the Oz public.
    4.$1.5 million missing from Libs – highlights the hypocrisy of the TURC fiasco.

    5. Dear Dyson.

  14. briefly:

    The privileged always go to lengths to hold onto their privileged positions. Heydon is no different.

    I’m with Dio: he’ll stay on.

  20. As others have said I think it would be risky and counterproductive to take a complaint about Heydon to another court.

    Unless they were very very confident another court would rule against Heydon continuing (and I can’t see how it would be a better than even chance), the possibility that a Court could knock the application back would be devastating.

    They unions have Heydon and the RC right where they want them – discredited, where any findings will have no weight. Having a court rule that Heydon is ok to continue would destroy the bias narrative. I can hear Abetz and Brandis and Abbott warming up their lines of how any questions about Heydon have been shown to be “disgraceful slurs from union ratbags upon the reputation of a fine Australian who has devoted his life to serving this country faithfully”.

    It’s not worth the risk. The unions would be fools to try to take it any further.

  24. Poroti and others – having been interviewed on TV a few times (not under the name J A R of course), I can tell you that neither the ABC nor the millionaires’ channels ever pay. If one wants to be regarded as an “expert” one is supposed to be ready to air one’s expertise for nix. If one works at a Uni the Uni’s PR people (now called corporate communication, ffs!) have a register of “experts” and encourage them to be available at all hours.

    I can also tell you that the channels tend to interview a whole set of experts for 5 to 15 minutes each,getting each of us to cover all the issues thoroughly, and they then show between one phrase-long and two sentence-long grabs from each person as they fold everyone’s views into the story. I haven’t ever been quoted totally out of context (Madonna King did that to me once in print, years ago) but they don’t always make the full thrust of one’s thoughts absolutely clear. Will, I presume you’ve just had an experience pretty close to what I’m describing?

  25. Abetz apparently never realised that Bill Shorten had been been Secretary of the Victorian Branch and the national office of the AWU when the terms of reference required the Heydon witch hunt to look closely at that union for the last 20 years.

  26. Shea McDuff @ 913 – whilst it is a most wonderful and worthwhile list of Govt “wins”it assumes the general voting public actually take any notice of things like TURC. Isn’t Dyson a vaccum cleaner?

    I think the general vibe was not quite so catastrophic this week for the LNP. There may still be some carryover from Bronnie but bogan, small Govt voter likes the words “tax cut”. I suspect a change within moe,either way.

  27. [Abetz apparently never realised that Bill Shorten had been been Secretary of the Victorian Branch and the national office of the AWU when the terms of reference required the Heydon witch hunt to look closely at that union for the last 20 years.]

    LOL. Abetz being a Tas Senator at the time of that mine tragedy when Shorten shot to national attention.

  28. Just reminding everyone that this (apparent) hatchet job by 4C was scheduled just before he was originally meant to appear before the TURC . Shorten appearing early at his own request stuffed the timing up.

  31. Dio if you are about, just watched the ABC promo of Heydon walking outside from the RC, noticed he doesn’t swing his arms in normal gate.. symptom of Parkinson’s?

  32. Jack A Randa

    [ one is supposed to be ready to air one’s expertise for nix. ]
    Thank you for that information. Sad news for your bank balance but good that money does not flow to the IPA expert opinionistas.

  34. This 4C profile is most definitely in Shorten’s interests.

    Whatever it dredges up, we’re some distance from an election (unless the most unexpected occurs) so it is most helpful really that a very experienced journo – Marian Wilkinson – goes over the Shorten biography very carefully now, rather than say a month out from an election.

    It’s ideal timing really.

  36. It’s good that Marian Wilkinson is straight down the line. Nothing like a gratuitous description of Shorten’s answers as ‘evasive’……oh, wait.

  37. There’s been a wild storm raging in Sydney so I watched the storm instead if the early part of 4C. Back watching the ABC now, so far 4C is just a rehash of what’s known, but l suppose we’ll see where it goes.

  38. What I mean is that it’s going to happen, and it’s going to happen probably several times. So let a seasoned reporter give it her best shot at this stage of the cycle – rather than later. A failure to dredge up much will probably help deter others from expending as much energy.

  40. As pointed out above, this 4 Corners ‘expose’ was originally scheduled to coincide with his appearance before Heydon. Both the rescheduling and subsequent allegations of bias have taken the wind out of the ABC’s sails.

    However it leaves the impression of being designed to create the perfect storm for Shorten and the ALP.

  41. Wheeling out Abetz shows what a crap program this is. What the f!@#! does Abetz bring to the program in terms of actual input, rather than snide political sniping.

  45. [Mr Denmore
    Mr Denmore – ‏@MrDenmore

    You’d have to say this #4Corners has been overtaken by events. Deyson is the bigger story.
    4:04 AM – 24 Aug 2015
    10 RETWEETS10 FAVORITES]

  46. I predict a one or half point TTP ‘swing’ back to the government. The oz will go insane re the ‘comeback kid’ abbott. And go to town with the 4 corners show. I hope 4 corners is racking up one ‘for’ the gov because it has something big on abbott and is protecting itself re perceptions of bias.

  47. “The royal commission will make a further statement on the timing of commissioner Heydon’s decision in due course. A public hearing scheduled for Wednesday 26 August 2015, involving the CFMEU NSW branch, has been postponed to a date to be fixed.”

    Certainly makes a total joke of Heydon giving Newlines 30 minute to lodge his objection.

  49. [Nothing new so far.]

    I think it’s that guy from the employer negotiating team on that road project who is going to give evidence.

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