Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll by Galaxy lands well in line with the broader trend in pointing to a formidable swing of 8% to Labor.

Today’s Sunday Mail in Queensland publishes federal voting intention figures from the Galaxy poll that produced the state results you can read about in the post immediately below this one. The federal results are broadly similar to the state ones, and likewise in alignment with the current Queensland reading of BludgerTrack, in crediting Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, which represents an 8% swing compared with the 2013 election result. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (compared with 45.7% in 2013), 37% for Labor (29.8%), 10% for the Greens (6.2%) and 3% for Palmer United (11.0%). The poll also provides a second encouraging personal result for Bill Shorten following his improved rating in last weekend’s Ipsos poll, with 40% rating him the federal leader with the “best plan for Queensland” compared with 34% for Tony Abbott – a question that produced a 42-40 split in favour of Abbott when last posed in the wake of the budget in May. The poll had a sample of 800 respondents, and was presumably conducted late in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,060 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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    Voters put Shorten ahead of Abbott
    Tony Abbott’s standing with voters and support for the Coalition have tumbled to their lowest levels since March, as Bill Shorten’s stocks have bounced from record lows to a three-month high. The latest Newspoll, taken ­exclusively for The

  2. tes – ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 30 (-3) Disapprove 63 (+2) #auspol
    5:06 AM – 24 Aug 2015

  3. [Thus, to be consistent, you would recommend that everyone vote for the best local candidate, rather than vote based on what they think about Abbott, yeah?]

    Any local candidate who thinks Abbott is a PM worth serving under is not worthy of my vote. The candidate fails the character test.

  4. @GhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-1) ALP 39 (0) GRN 13 (0) #auspol
    5:06 AM – 24 Aug 2015

  5. @GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 35 (-3) Shorten 40 (+2) #auspol

    Abbott looking sicker than the Dow Futures. Could we see the first 1,000 point loss in one session?

  6. [Annabelle Crabbe talking as if she’s been a political journalist for fifty years….]

    Gee, I didn’t even realise that she was a political journalist for 5 minutes…

  7. GhostWhoVotes
    GhostWhoVotes – ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 34 (+5) Disapprove 52 (-5) #auspol
    5:07 AM – 24 Aug 2015

  8. “For a start most people aren’t even watching 4C tonight.”

    Exactly. When something anyone* gives a stuff about happens, Twitter explodes. It often explodes when something nobody gives a stuff about happens too, which is why it’s so often unreliable. But tumbleweeds and crickets? Dead story.

    *ie. the media, as in the anyones who will actually bother to report the story

  9. Happiness@997

    …I didn’t vote for Latham, Rudd or Gillard.

    I voted for my very worthy local ALP candidate.

    Thus, to be consistent, you would recommend that everyone vote for the best local candidate, rather than vote based on what they think about Abbott, yeah?

    Only ALP candidates are worthy of my vote.
    I will not vote for LOONS to the left or right.

    In the unlikely event the ALP candidate was totally hopeless, I might consider another candidate.

  10. Nah, ppm isn’t the benchmark anymore.

    From today success will be measured by whichever leader has the most pimples on his arse.

  11. The unions were heavily represented at the James Hardie Special Commission of Inquiry in NSW in 2004.

    They expected to have their legal fees met but werecstiffed by Bob Carr.

  12. Well – the leadership numbers are the big story. Headline in Rupe’s vanity project: Voters put shorten ahead of abbott.

    Palpatine has spoken.

  13. Well, well, well

    The dopes in the Q&A control room have let through this tweet. Check the handle, Abbott may have to cut short his FNQ trip to fulminate over this!

    And it is X rated

    @Patrickavenell: Srsly guys, don’t you want to stay on the air??? #qanda

  14. Shellbell @ 1025: If the Royal Commission goes down in a screaming heap, and if there happens to be an early election and an early change of government, that would be the time for the unions to ask politely for some money back.

    It would probably do PM Shorten a bit of short term damage to make such a payment, but it would be worth it just to see the look on the face of Senator Abetz.

  15. sprocket @ 1029: The phrase obviously started life as AbbottLovesAnalyticalPhilosophy, before striking a character limit somewhere in the system.

  16. Indeed!

    Ken Tsang ‏@jxeeno 2m2 minutes ago

    plz wait, initiating second review into qanda and preparing “heads should roll” speech. meanwhile, $15bn #nbn blowout is a-okay 🙂

  17. sprocket @ 1029: I once was shown a document issued by the Mexican Embassy in Canberra which described how their government had invited the UN to deploy an expert team to “analise the Mexican electoral system and prepare a technical report on the findings”.

  18. If he shut up and let it pass nobody will take notice. By objecting he will just make a bigger knob of himself.

    He’ll object of course.

  19. [How can the Murdoch rags spin this for Abbott will be a joy to behold.]

    murdoch had lunch with Morrison on the weekend – he may not be spinning for abbott any more. I think the reporting on this will make it clear whether he’s changed horses. if they run dead or even against for canning we’ll know for sure. let’s hope it is all very bitter and divisive.

    I sense shorten is hitting his stride a bit now. he’s playing a dead bat to abbott’s cunning traps on national security, and could gazump him on tax by vowing to index the tax thresholds to wage movements and CPI so that bracket creep ceases to existing. he could also pledge to always offer tax relief by raising the tax free threshold rather than tax breaks to the wealthy, and the raise revenue by cutting the howard-costello loopholes for the wealthy. Labor’s slogan for the election just needs to be ‘For a Fair Go’ or ‘For a Fair Future’ (fair for workers, fair for GBLT, fair for the environment, for fornd the kids’ future) and they’ll bog it in. JoHo and Abbott big targets and like roos in the spotlight.

    [Newspoll: Bill Shorten’s stocks bounce to three month high
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Tony Abbott’s standing with voters and support for the Coalition have tumbled to their lowest levels since March, as Bill Shorten’s stocks have bounced from record lows to a three-month high.

    The latest Newspoll, taken ­exclusively for The Australian at the weekend,also reveals that, for the first time in five months, Labor has a higher primary vote than the government as the opposition continues its 16-month lead in two-party-preferred terms.

    The Opposition Leader, who enjoyed a 10-point turnaround in his personal ratings in the past fortnight, has also opened a five-point lead over Mr Abbott as ­voters’ preferred prime minister.

    After a fortnight when the Prime Minister’s hand-picked trade union royal commissioner came under fire, Coalition ministers disagreed over same-sex marriage and Mr Abbott said he “read the riot act” to cabinet about leaks, the poll of 1706 people shows core support for the Coalition fell one point to 38 per cent. The government’s primary vote is down three points from its post-budget high in late May, erasing all the gains from the well-received budget.

    Labor’s support was unchanged at 39 per cent and the Greens were steady at 13 per cent while ­independents and other parties rose one point to 10 per cent.

    Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor’s two-party preferred lead was unchanged at 54 per cent to the Coalition’s 46 per cent — a 7.5 per cent swing since the September 2013 election. This is the 29th consecutive Newspoll survey in which Labor has been ahead in two-party terms.]

  21. Ackland’s article on Heydon in the Guardian is truly, truly devastating (as usual). He is a lovely writer, who gets right to the heart of an issue and actually understands the law and the legal system.

  22. Latham got Labor into the early years. Yes he was ridiculed for his reading to kids schtick, but that’s been vindicated with evidence over the years.

    The AEDI, now AEDC is a testament to his leadership of LAbor.

  23. When working in the Sydney construction industry many years ago, there was one compressed gas firm called AnalGas. Pronounced An-ah-l Gas the friendly receptionist insisted.

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