BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate readings follows Ipsos in finding a lift in Bill Shorten’s personal stocks, but a soft result for Labor in Essential Research’s cancels out the effect on voting intention.

BludgerTrack this week splits the difference between two very different poll results – a dire one for the government from Ipsos, and a much better one from Essential Research – to record next to no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining but not significantly improving on their very substantial gains over the last month. However, the state-level results have been favourable to Labor to the extent of adding two to the seat projection, namely one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. While Essential dampened any shift on voting intention this week, only Ipsos provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, which accordingly see a solid lift in Bill Shorten’s position, such that he has overtaken Tony Abbott on both net approval and preferred prime minister.

Fans of new content are advised to look carefully below this post, where they will find a belated account of the latest Tasmanian EMRS state poll, the regular Seat of the Week, and a reupholstered post on the all-important Canning by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,628 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

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  1. Looks like Galaxy asked about Fed voting intentions in QLD

    [@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (-2) ALP 51 (+2) #auspol]

  2. The Guardian reports this swipe by Hastie at Matt Keogh:

    [Hastie said Keogh, a dispute resolution lawyer and former president of the Law Society of WA, used “very carefully crafted, tricky political lawyer speak”.

    “You won’t get that from me,” he said.]

    He makes a perfect Liberal candidate. They all specialising in denying something at the very moment they are doing it.

    [Queensland voters turn on Prime Minister Tony Abbott, putting his Government in election-losing position
    August 23, 2015 12:00AM
    The Sunday Mail (Qld)

    QUEENSLAND voters have turned on Tony Abbott, putting his Government in an election-losing position.

    The PM’s personal approval has taken a hit, leaving him trailing six points behind Bill Shorten as the leader considered to have the best plan for the state.

    In a result that will fuel growing fears among Government MPs that they are heading towards an electoral wipe-out, the Galaxy/Sunday Mail poll found federal Labor is ahead of the LNP in Queensland by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

    This outcome, based on preference flows from the last election, represents an 8 percentage point swing and could see a swathe of LNP seats fall to Labor if replicated at the ballot box.]

  4. The thing with the sort of wars we have now is that an irregular force (terrorists/freedom fighters/holy warriors/…) takes on a modern army – the USA and supporting allies, Nato, the USSR – on their (the irregulars’) home patch. Casualties might be 10 to 1 or much much more against the irregular force. The homeland of the irregular force is trashed. Civilian casualties are horrendous, even if the regular force (regarded as invaders by the irregulars) want to avoid or minimise harm to civilians.

    In spite of this the irregulars keep on coming. The regular force can’t be defeated. But they can’t win. Even the Soviet forces in Afghanistan, who propably had little reservations about civilian casualties and damage, eventually lost. The irregulars game plan is to absorb casualties and damage and wear down the regulars until they give up – their home populations have little tolerance for casualties or the ongoing economic cost. In recent decades, it has worked.

  5. ‘Struggling to stick to the theme of jobs and growth’

    Perhaps as the people have heard ‘jobs and growth’ from every politician since time immemorial, the issue is really that they don’t actually have a plan for it

  6. So now it’s just the NSW bogan belt that’s holding out …

    We’ll soon see whether a whiff of Abbott inspired unemployment changes their view.

  7. [ Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Saturday, August 22, 2015 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    So now it’s just the NSW bogan belt that’s holding out … ]

    Sandgropers first cab off therank.

    Lets see how they jump…

  8. Oh, they’ve already jumped, Dave.

    You can buy a good range of jetskis, Holden utes and boats over here very cheaply.

    You can even tell where they were previously parked from the dead grass patches near the for sale signs on the McMansions.

  9. I have a very strong suspicion that a facetious self aggrandising young upstart from t’other side, who presumes to tell them how good they’ve got it, is in for a rude awakening.

    Enough to cause him to gnaw his own arm off.

  10. The ALP should be working to ensure that Mr Hastie is asked where he stands on some of the nastier stuff which the government is still trying or hoping to push: co-payments, Commission of Audit report recommendations, etc.

    The suggestion that he may have been too busy fighting for truth, justice and the American way to think about such things will only get him so far.

  11. TPOF @ 1509
    Yes, well, the military chap I mentioned was just an example of a fortunately rare type of authoritarian personality. I’m not sure I have the words to describe it,a subtly arrogant assumption that any opinion they may form of me will have consequences. For me. It seems to go across many professions but not everyone has it. I was friendly with a copper once who went far up the ranks & he was a good bloke.
    And @1604 I read that Guardian article & our Mr Hastie comes across as a pretty abrasive type, also eager to play some sort of victim I’d think.

  12. BSA Bob 1619
    No doubt your right.
    The Libs picked him AS a “War Hero” who is being brought down by the Evil Labor party and the unions.

  13. Canning is shaping up as a real test of Abbott’s war-making political strategy. It’s about the only thing he has left to try. If it works, he will look to run to a general election at the first opportunity. If it doesn’t, he’s finished.

    The Liberal campaign is apparently going to be themed around national rather than local issues. The sub-text for the voters of Canning is that their everyday interests are not the first consideration for the Liberals. This would appear to be the exact opposite of the pastoral politics used by Randall.

    Labor should focus on the issues that are really hurting the LNP – jobs, the economy, FTA’s-Workchoices-Wages, education, health, energy and climate, taxes, infrastructure, Abbott’s Captain’s Picks and his flawed judgment.

    There is plenty of substance there for Labor…and very little for the Liberals.

  14. Happiness
    [Interesting phenomenon military folk supporting right spectrum parties:

    1. Right = individual (whereas army = collective)

    2. Right = follow/support individuals rather than follow factions (Army = factions, i.e. do what the faction major tells you to do)

    3. Right = look after yourself (whereas army = look after the collective)

    Yet the right seems to attract the military folk]

    It is obviously strange when considered only in terms of the self-serving view that conservatives have of themselves.

    It is less strange when considered in terms of how left/liberals view conservatives.

    how about…
    1. Right = Nationalism (army = Nationalism)
    2. Right = Fear/dislike of the foreign/other (army = be ready to kill foreign/other)
    3. Right = Respect for traditional authority figures (army = respect for traditional authority figures)

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