BludgerTrack this week splits the difference between two very different poll results – a dire one for the government from Ipsos, and a much better one from Essential Research – to record next to no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining but not significantly improving on their very substantial gains over the last month. However, the state-level results have been favourable to Labor to the extent of adding two to the seat projection, namely one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. While Essential dampened any shift on voting intention this week, only Ipsos provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, which accordingly see a solid lift in Bill Shorten’s position, such that he has overtaken Tony Abbott on both net approval and preferred prime minister.
Fans of new content are advised to look carefully below this post, where they will find a belated account of the latest Tasmanian EMRS state poll, the regular Seat of the Week, and a reupholstered post on the all-important Canning by-election.
Bemused, i think in a way youve made my point.
Far from adf personnel being superior and more courageous than us mere plebs, who simply work hard every day to make our lives and this country a great place to live, most warfare these days is more like a computer game where you can kill enemies (or innocent civilian women and children) from the comfort of a chair in a war room thousands of kms away from any front line or danger.
Thats why i doubt many people actually have the same level of respect for current troops as we do for those who actually got their hands dirty and faced their enemies in the battlefield in years gone by and not by using an expensive drone to remotely take out the enemy as our current day military forces do.
For the record i know a few guys in the adf includung my own brother.
They are great guys for the most part but definetely not heroes worthy of uncritical adulation.
[ TrueBlueAussie
Posted Saturday, August 22, 2015 at 9:02 pm | Permalink
Labors smear campaign against the SAS hero running for the seat of Canning is disgraceful. This will lose Labor votes. ]
A known liar on PB continues to lie –
[ Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said he would not pass judgement.
“I respect the work of Australian Defence forces and I respect the work that they’ve done overseas,” Mr Shorten said. ]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-22/canning-candidate-hastie-defends-action-in-afghanistan/6717140
[
TrueBlueAussie
Posted Saturday, August 22, 2015 at 9:02 pm | Permalink
Labors smear campaign against the SAS hero running for the seat of Canning is disgraceful. This will lose Labor votes.
]
I have no doubt that was Abbotts hope. Such a plan requires far more polical skill than can be mustered by Abbott; and Shorten has shown no interest in playing.
He’ll be useful in a show of hands
Vote in Hastie, repent in leisure
Stony Habbott@1551
Units like the SAS still get up close to the enemy as would Commandos and other infantry.
But the days of mass armies like WWI and WWII are gone.
Australia’s defence largely relies on the sea gap, hence the importance of submarines and air power.
Being in the ADF makes no-one a hero.
very poor taste!
Is that why the most technologically dominant military power of all time, the United States, did astonishingly well against tinpot foes in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq?
Interesting to hear of this Mr Hastie. I thought it was retired Major-General Molam who had won all of our wars for the last 15 years.
Canning will be very interesting because of the candidates chosen by Labor and Liberal. Both, in their own way, are images of what each party considers a high profile candidate.
It will be a test of what each party considers to be what represents them. On the one hand, there is a candidate with ‘star’ quality, a macho high achiever in his field who manifests the aura of firmness security that the Liberals want to project as their collective quality. On the other hand, there is the candidate of local origin who has also shown a great level of achievement in their own, civil, field.
I worry that it is wishful thinking on my part, but my general impression of star candidates, especially those who are parachuted in, is that they are not received with any kind of awe when they stand for election. And while there is nothing wrong with parachuting in a star candidate, there is a bias towards the local candidate who is perceived to be of equal quality.
I don’t think that Hastie will have the impact that the Liberals think. That’s not to disrespect him or his career. But I suspect the voters will be looking for someone who seems (in terms of what they personally offer the electorate) like Don Randall, rather than a star. And, of course, the politics of the moment will be a key determinant.
Time will tell. I will not be surprised if Labor wins. I think there will be at least a solid swing to Labor, reflecting Randall’s personal vote. How much more is anyone’s guess. And certainly I have no idea, given how little I know of WA demographics. Should be interesting.
I would imagine one of the reasons for undertaking repeated tours of duty is the homo-erotic opportunities it provides.
[ pedant
Posted Saturday, August 22, 2015 at 9:33 pm | Permalink
Interesting to hear of this Mr Hastie. I thought it was retired Major-General Molam who had won all of our wars for the last 15 years. ]
Molam gives that impression.
He *apparently* expects a ride through to the Senate next election on the tory ticket.
Now I wonder that will go 🙂
[I thought it was retired Major-General Molam who had won all of our wars for the last 15 years.]
Only the war against unarmed asylum seekers on unseaworthy vessels engaging in a mass invasion of our little island.
Nicholas@1558
Asymmetrical warfare, read about it.
The US military is capable of taking out any foe in a pitched battle. So their enemies don’t oblige by playing that game.
Try reading ‘The War Of The Flea’ by Robert Taber. https://archive.org/details/TheWarOfTheFlea
[The guerrilla fights the war of the flea, and his military enemy suffers the dog’s disadvantages: too much to defend; too small, ubiquitous, and agile an enemy to come to grips with.” With these words, Robert Taber began a revolution in conventional military thought that has dramatically impacted the way armed conflicts have been fought since the book’s initial publication in 1965. Whether ideological, nationalistic, or religious, all guerrilla insurgencies use similar tactics to advance their cause.
War of the Flea’s timeless analysis of the guerrilla fighter’s means and methods provides a fundamental resource for any reader seeking to understand this distinct form of warfare and the challenge it continues to present to today’s armed forces in the Philippines, Colombia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechnya and elsewhere.]
[ Labors smear campaign against the SAS hero ]
🙂 While its obvious that the Libs WANT people to think the ALP is running a smear campaign, i have yet to see any evidence that they are. Interesting if transparent backhanded tactic by the Fibs.
TPOF @ 1560: Worth remembering that Kevin Newman, Campbell’s father, was another ex-military star candidate, in the Bass by-election in 1975. He had a big win, but didn’t turn out to be anything very exceptional as an MP or Fraser government minister.
TPOF @ 563: Are you sure that retired Major-General Molam was involved with that?
Poms 1/19. Siddle having a good couple of days. 🙂
[@BevanShields: Andrew Hastie says while fighting in Afghanistan he ‘did not feel the Labor government had our backs’ #auspol]
This is an outrageous,slur, and is also,untrue. It reflects a pattern of behaviour Abbott has displayed over the last few years of trashing each and every institution and convention our nation has. Hastie is a patsy for meeting Abbott in the gutter.
Labor has not been the party which has enthusiastically sent our troops to war in the last 50 years. Nor has Labor cheered on expeditions to far flung lands. However, when in power, Labor has fully supported our troops, whilst looking to use all means to end these foreign follies.
imacca @ 1565
The Liberals will be reduced to smear their own candidate to get the sympathy vote.
Yet another great example of how Labor recognises the traps laid by their opponents (to be fair, it’s hard not to spot them) and resolutely refuses to take the bait.
pedant @ 1567
My recollection is that Molan devised the strategy for Operation Sovereign Borders – or at least claimed to.
I found this on a quick google search:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/abbott-adviser-handed-new-paid-role-as-envoy-20130905-2t85y.html
@TBA/1524
So TBA is following the liberal attack on Labor on so called “smear campaign”.
Typical, don’t think for yourself.
pedant@1567
It was his ‘advice’ they take the approach that lead to ‘Operation Sovereign Borders’.
That why he thinks he should get into the Senate.
The media covered his recommendations to abbott at the time.
bemused @ 1564: I would have thought that the revolution in military thought in question could be dated back well before 1965, at least to General Giap and the victory of the Vietminh against the French in the First Indochina war (culminating in the battle of Dien Bien Phu).
dave @ 1573: That’s interesting, thanks.
TPOF @ 1571: Thanks for the link, the good general seems to be as busy in retirement as some of us here.
Bemused Comrade
You missed the word “voluntarily”.
Talk to a current vet of several tours and he’ll tell or show you why he volunteers.
At least it can be said for both the Liberal and ALP candidates in Canning that they seems to have done something before entering politics, unlike the lifelong student politicians who’ve been such a blight on Canberra lately.
pedant@1574
Guerrilla warfare goes back well before that. Millennia in fact.
psyclaw@1577
Can’t say I have met any such people. So you will have to tell me.
bemused @ 1579: And as Raymond Aron pointed out, the guerillas win if they don’t lose, whereas the government resisting the guerillas loses if it doesn’t win.
AussieAchmed 1550
Saved the picture and will print it out and pass it around.
Nicholas 1558
Not to mention Grenada which didn’t have an Army a Navy or an Air force.
Probably the first time I’ve posted a Mike Baird video
Worth it for his discussion with the Baron of Barangaroo
https://t.co/TMcQu5jcCi
As I have said before quite often, Shorten is stalking Abbott. I bet Abbott has bad dreams of a Shorten ogre waiting for him behind the bathroom door.
Now wonder Abbott won’t move out of the AFP quarters, into a house on his own.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1585
Probably doesn’t think it’s worth the effort since he has such a short time to go as PM. 👿
From the dog ate my homework excuses file
[LIBERAL MP Stephan Knoll has admitted he was “intensely stupid’’ to join extramarital affairs website Ashley Madison, but says he only signed up as a joke and has never used the controversial service.
The married father of one claims he joined “eight or nine years ago’’ as part of a prank with his sister-in-law, but his email address now has been revealed as one of the 37 million user profiles dumped on the internet by hackers this week.
The scandal is engulfing politicians and senior figures all over the world, with Victorian state Liberal director Damien Mantach — who this week has also been accused of stealing $1.5 million of party funds — also being linked to the Ashley Madison website, an online dating service that matches married people seeking secret affairs.]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/sa-liberal-mp-stephan-knolls-profile-revealed-on-hacked-and-dumped-ashley-madison-website/story-fni6uo1m-1227493862689
Happiness @ 1507 – you said it.
Tom.
Couldn’t Australia do the same thing if it were invaded by a technologically superior enemy?
The Australian Defence Force supplemented by a volunteer citizen army could make it impossible for an enemy to win any kind of victory worthy of the costs.
@sprocket_/1587
LOL, the excuses.
[@phbarratt: Any ADF officer who says Govt didn’t have his back when he was deployed betrays his ignorance of how our system works.]
Paul Barratt is a former Secretary of Defence. Good to see him calling out this divisive drivel from Hastie.
[Guerrilla warfare goes back well before that. Millennia in fact.]
And gets its name – little war in Spanish – from the resistance by the Spanish to the Napoleonic invasion of the Iberian Peninsula from 1807.
Nicholas@1589
Guerrillas suffer heavy casualties and civilian populations may be subjected to reprisals as the NAZIs routinely applied in WWII
I would not want to be a citizen of a country that had to wage guerrilla warfare against an invader.
We are fortunate not to have a land border at all and certainly none with a potential invader.
TPOF@1592
I didn’t know that. Thanks.
But it is really as old as history.
Well, after tossing in his trolling grenade that went off like a damp squib, the Troll has beaten a Hastie retreat from PB.
…..sorry. I shouldn’t comment on the Troll, but I just couldn’t resist the pun.
[Samuel Ferris ✔@samuelfez
Peter Siddle’s first five overs in England’s second innings:
000000000000000000W00000000000 #Ashes ]
Good thing we didn’t let him play much this series….
[But it is really as old as history.]
Indeed.
sproket_ @ 1587
More like ” I didn’t inhale ” excuse
Too true
[Peter Edmonds
Peter Edmonds – @termx
@BevanShields Andrew Hastie playing partisan politics with national security issues shows why he can’t be trusted in #Canning #auspol
7:57 PM – 21 Aug 2015]
Kinkajou,
[He’ll be useful in a show of hands]
I liked the dark humour