BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate readings follows Ipsos in finding a lift in Bill Shorten’s personal stocks, but a soft result for Labor in Essential Research’s cancels out the effect on voting intention.

BludgerTrack this week splits the difference between two very different poll results – a dire one for the government from Ipsos, and a much better one from Essential Research – to record next to no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining but not significantly improving on their very substantial gains over the last month. However, the state-level results have been favourable to Labor to the extent of adding two to the seat projection, namely one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. While Essential dampened any shift on voting intention this week, only Ipsos provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, which accordingly see a solid lift in Bill Shorten’s position, such that he has overtaken Tony Abbott on both net approval and preferred prime minister.

Fans of new content are advised to look carefully below this post, where they will find a belated account of the latest Tasmanian EMRS state poll, the regular Seat of the Week, and a reupholstered post on the all-important Canning by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,628 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 33
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  1. With more than fresh air hitting Kathy Jacksons fan big time, I wonder if she will start singing like a bird.

    I have a feeling that there are some people ‘sitting on the right’ that might be a bit worried.

  5. Rocket… thanks for asking. All is back to near normal. Quite a few of the older houses that were severely damaged have been written off – a lot of the damaged premises involved the dreaded asbestos.

    But on the whole most things are now back to ‘nearly’ normal.

    There is presently a huge amount of controlled burning off of the surrounding bush as the Cyclone dumped a lot of fuel – the major concern now is that we could be in for a hell of a bushfire season. It is a worry.

    I live 24k south of Yeppoon

  6. Ouch! The lampooning of Abbott is reaching Boy’s Own parody.

    [It’s hard sometimes to tell a boy from a man, especially when the boy is 58 years old. We need to observe closely how he behaves, listen to what he says, attempt to read his state of mind, before we reach any firm conclusions.

    Boy or man? It’s an important question, given how destructive youthful macho behaviour can be. We see it everywhere. Fighting, bullying, reckless driving, binge drinking, treating sex as a conquest – all of these high-risk behaviours passing for manliness, creating mayhem along the way.

    That’s why, since the dawn of time, various cultures have had their rites of passage, not just around birth, death, marriage and puberty, but around boys becoming psychologically sound and functioning men.

    A strong community depends on it, depends for its very survival on turning boys into competent and responsible young men. But manhood doesn’t just happen. It requires a concerted effort on the part of wise elders – normally through ceremonies and rituals – to point the way towards healthy male psychology. Otherwise a man might end up as a boy trapped in a man’s body, lording it over his family, his company, his nation.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-boy-or-man–or-maybe-just-wired-differently-20150819-gj2fyj.html#ixzz3jIXjYEuv
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Abbott’s outrageous myths over the Adani coal mine busted right open. So-called journalists and interviewers should be flayed for allowing him to repeat the obvious untruths time and time again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/adani-mine-a-20b-project-creating-10000-jobs-the-abbott-governments-myths-busted-20150819-gj2u2o.html
    Waleed Aly is an exception to this as he puts Steve Price into his place.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/waleed-aly-shuts-down-steve-price-on-the-project-over-greenies-20150819-gj36bq.html
    Geoff Cousins, a very effective communicator. steps in and explains how Abbott is on the wrong hose with his backing of coal and goes to the tactics the PM is using.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-government-is-backing-a-loser-in-coal-20150819-gj2kms.html
    This SMH editorial warns us that Abbott’s war on green groups will harm our environment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/tony-abbotts-war-on-the-environment-20150819-gj2qjc.html
    And “View from the Street” joins in on the environmental debate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-government-versus-environment–the-road-to-victory-20150819-gj2wn5.html
    And yet another Brandis legislation (“lawfare”) looks set to be defeated in the Senate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-bid-to-crack-down-on-green-group-legal-appeals-facing-likely-defeat-in-senate-20150819-gj2m19.html
    Farming groups are most upset over the government’s moves to restrict environmental challenges.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/aug/19/farm-groups-fear-coalition-move-to-restrict-environment-challenges
    Michelle Grattan openly laughs at Abbott’s “well functioning cabinet”.
    https://theconversation.com/a-well-functioning-cabinet-who-are-they-kidding-46348
    Kenny and Massola are on to Abbott and his new mantra – jobs and trade.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-shifts-focus-to-jobs-and-trade-but-leaks-continue-20150819-gj2u0f.html
    Surely it’s time to put an end to this anachronistic regulation and allow FTA television to broadcast sport in HD.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tv-networks-win-right-to-broadcast-aflnrl-in-hd-but-change-may-be-too-late-for-grand-finals-20150819-gj2xb9.html

  11. Section 2 . . .

    Paul Sheehan just doesn’t get it re the TURC. It’s not so much Heydon that is the target, rather it is the patently politically structured RC cynically put in place by Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-dyson-heydon-saga-innuendo-and-hypocrisy-blood-for-the-sake-of-blood-20150819-gj2veu.html
    Peter Wicks, the independent journo who was on to Kathy Jackson from day one, says “We’ve only just begun”, as Jackson walks from court after the $1.4m judgement against her. He explains how this judgement strikes at the independence of the TURC. The “judgement” exhibited by certain leading Liberal politicians also comes in for attention.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/weve-only-just-begun-kathy-jackson-walks-from-federal-court-mortally-wounded/
    Peter Wicks examines the integrity of Dyson Heydon.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/a-man-of-integrity-dyson-heydon-and-the-turc,8073
    Here’s a very long article on what George Pell should be facing up to as the RC moves forward. (NSFW)
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-uck-ends-with-cardinal-george-pell,8076
    This is interesting. The inquiry shows that ASIO reps attended all court appearances of Monis in the years building up to the Lindt Cafe siege.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/aug/19/asio-agents-attended-all-court-dates-of-lindt-cafe-gunman-in-year-before-seige
    Big Tobacco plumbs new depths.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/tobacco-company-wants-schools-survey-for-insights-into-children-and-teens-20150819-gj2vto.html
    Michael Gordon says we’re all sick of politics but it’s not all bad.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/victorian-premier-daniel-andrews-is-doing-a-good-job-so-far-20150819-gj2iz3.html
    We have a boy running this country and he’s scaring the pants off everyone!
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-boy-or-man–or-maybe-just-wired-differently-20150819-gj2fyj.html
    Abbott’s three act play on SSM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/samesex-marriage-plebiscite-tony-abbotts-threeact-play-20150819-gj2dr5.html
    In a world of change Tony Abbott denies the power of “yes”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/in-world-of-change-tony-abbott-denies-the-power-of-yes-20150818-gj1vlb.html

  12. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Tony Wright says that Abbott is up to his ankles in bulldust.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/up-to-his-ankles-in-bulldust-tony-abbott-hoofs-it-leak-follows-20150819-gj2pdw.html
    David Pope pours ridicule and scorn upon this shocking government.

    At the TURC with Ron Tandberg.

    Alan Moir welcomes Abbott to another day at the office.

    Mark Knight gives us Kathy Jackson.

    David Rowe signals the end for Das Abbott!

  14. [Boy or man? It’s an important question, given how destructive youthful macho behaviour can be. We see it everywhere. Fighting, bullying, reckless driving, binge drinking, treating sex as a conquest – all of these high-risk behaviours passing for manliness, creating mayhem along the way.]

    *cheers*

    The first thing that came to mind after I read this was that cartoon depicting Abbott, Pyne, Dutton and someone else in the car having laid out Gillian Triggs and left her for dead.

  16. morning all

    Unsuprising Jon Faine ABC774 starts off the program with the Liberal party saga re the missing 2 million dollars from party coffers.

  18. Fairfax has dramatically cut jobs at our local daily paper, basically relying on journos to do their own subbing.

    Today’s headline – “Labor sticks fat on footy holiday”.

  19. jeffemu at 1

    As I have no political or union contacts I’m totally out of the loop & reliant on others for info, any thoughts on who on the right might be a bit worried & why?

  20. Ex NSW DPP corroborates the legal views previously expressed on PB and elsewhere:

    [Nicholas Cowdery says Dyson Heydon can make impartial ruling on whether to stand down from royal commission]

    However he also appreciates the reality, which is the most important aspect:

    [“The problem is, of course, that any adverse findings against anybody remotely connected with a party other than the Liberal Party are going to be degraded and snubbed because of the events that have occurred.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-19/dyson-heydon-nicholas-cowdery-royal-commission/6709968

  22. CE @ 19

    My reading of jeffemu’s comment was that it was directed at people like Pyne, and Abbott himself, who heavily invested on the image of Kathy Jackson as the heroic whistleblower in order to pile as much dirt as possible onto Craig Thomson to get him to resign and turn over his seat to the Liberals in a hung parliament.

    After all, someone organised her to deliver a talk to the H.R. Nicholls Society and wheeled her out when a bit of ballast was needed to attack the HSU leadership in order to smear Labor.

  25. And this, from employment minister Eric Abetz:

    “I would be asking my colleagues that we should continue (the commission), but of course it would be a matter for the cabinet.”

    Yes Eric that’s the rub of it… totally a political decision

  26. Murdoch seems to be anticipating that TURC will become fairly useless for Abbott after Heydon’s indiscretions. Thus (after many millions of taxpayers’ money is wasted) it becomes a traditional political battle again.

    [
    Secret ACTU army moves on PM
    TROY BRAMSTON
    A union-backed grassroots army is being secretly deployed to try and consign the PM to history as ‘one-term Tony’.

    and

    Shorten union backers in crosshairs
    JOE KELLY
    Tony Abbott has broadened his political assault on Labor’s union connections amid the furore over Dyson Heydon.

    ]

  27. Murdoch is clearly telling Abbott to drop Jackson like a hot potato. If she is charged and sings like a canary, there could be some very uneasy Liberals.

    [Scorching end to day in the sun
    PAMELA WILLIAMS
    With melted wings, Kathy Jackson fell to earth in courtroom 6A of the Federal Court in Melbourne.

    Jackson in police sights
    PIA AKERMAN, RACHEL BAXENDALE
    Police weighing up criminal charges­ against fallen union whistleblower Kathy Jackson have received fresh ammunition.]

  28. citizien

    The big question is why TURC didnt make recommendafions re KJackson in the first instance. It was the Union itself that brought the civil proceedings against her

  30. BK

    I would hope that the application by the ACTU could state circumstances where TURC did not deal with certain matters including the claims by Gillard’s ex partner that he was offered $200,000 to provide a story to the Commission. The Commish threw it out on the basis that it was not in its terms of reference. Why? I thought something like that was instrumental

  31. Greg Hunt is in the Reps now introducing the amendment to weaken the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act. He’s talking about “U.S. style litigation” by green groups.

  32. [“Murdoch is clearly telling Abbott to drop Jackson like a hot potato.”]

    You guys seem a bit confused.

    Kathy Jackson is a union heavy and part of the ALP. She even stole money from the union to pay the ALP.

    I get that you guys want to pretend she is part of the Liberal Party because she helped take down Craig Thomson who also stole money from the union, but it’s simply not the case.

    The only good thing Kathy Jackson did was become a whistleblower to bring the whole HSU rorts scandal to light… something Craig Thomson “I’m innocent!” never did.

  33. In retrospect, its hardly surprising that Abbott’s Cabinet is openly leaking almost daily given the contempt with which he has treated them & the the manner in which he has worked to drive various wedges between them over the past 2 years & to treat them as enemies rather than colleagues. It seems he is beginning to reap what he has sown.

  34. [“Fairfax has dramatically cut jobs at our local daily paper, basically relying on journos to do their own subbing.”]

    Fairfax imho is now the worst media organisation in the country.

    I much prefer The Guardian now even though it is blatantly left at least it doesn’t run constant what I like to call “Twitter News”… uno… stupid shit.

    Also they seem to have a problem with truth. Today they ran a story claiming Abbott lied about the Adani Mine creating 10,000 jobs because Adani’s files list 1400 or so jobs created. Of course this assumes… ridiculously, that no other jobs are created by the original 1400 jobs. Ever been to a town where there are only 1400 workers total and every single one of them works at the mine? No.. me either.

  35. [“In retrospect, its hardly surprising that Abbott’s Cabinet “]

    And by Abbotts “Cabinet” you mean Malcolm Turnbull

  36. From the Herald Sun article on the missing Lib money —

    [Mr Mantach was one of the senior Liberals figure who was covertly recorded during the secret tapes scandal in March 2013, a bombshell that led to Ted Baillieu resigning as premier.]

    Er, no.

  37. TBA

    You are in the LNP fantasy land Abbott has created. A court judgement is not bad reporting by Fairfax.

    Adani claimed 10 000 jobs court case proved that was never the case.

  38. Dear o dear,

    Fancy someone in a position of authority within the liberal party ripping millions off hard working liberal party members.

    We need a RC into the liberal party as the practice must be widespread !

    Stamp out the corruption. if one liberal can do it then all liberals must be under suspicion.

    Cheery thought to start the day.

    Cheers.

  40. 1400 mine jobs are not going to support 8600 (1400+8600=10000) ‘other’ jobs. The 10,000 figure is an outrageous exaggeration at best, proven lie more likely.

  42. TBA

    [Of course this assumes… ridiculously, that no other jobs are created by the original 1400 jobs..]

    Actually, no, it doesn’t. Adani made it clear they were factoring in the flow on effect. Their figure is their estimate of the TOTAL number of jobs created throughout the community, not just the number employed at the mine.

  43. TBA

    As an exercise, compare and contrast posts 32 and 35

    “Kathy Jackson is a union heavy and part of the ALP.”

    “And by Abbotts “Cabinet” you mean Malcolm Turnbull.”

    Turnbull is as much a Liberal as Jackson is a Laborite.

    Though it’s not yet confirmed that it its Turnbull leaking. And, while it may be, there are other candidates… But the thing is, all the members of the Cabinet are members of the Coalition.

  44. TBA at 34:
    [Also they seem to have a problem with truth. Today they ran a story claiming Abbott lied about the Adani Mine creating 10,000 jobs because Adani’s files list 1400 or so jobs created. Of course this assumes… ridiculously, that no other jobs are created by the original 1400 jobs. Ever been to a town where there are only 1400 workers total and every single one of them works at the mine? No.. me either.]

    You must be a Labor plant as your claims are so easily refuted. Adani’s own expert gave evidence in court that the direct and indirect jobs to be created were 1464. From his affidavit at [68]:

    [68 Over the life of the Project it is projected that on average around 1,464 employee
    years of full time equivalent direct and indirect jobs will be created. M]
    http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/1513_adanijobs.pdf

  46. Victoria

    [I would hope that the application by the ACTU could state circumstances where TURC did not deal with certain matters including the claims by Gillard’s ex partner that he was offered $200,000 to provide a story to the Commission. The Commish threw it out on the basis that it was not in its terms of reference. Why? I thought something like that was instrumental]

    That approach is not permissible.

    An application for disqualification must be made at the first opportunity upon facts relevant to the application becoming known.

    A public decision made many months ago won’t qualify. In any event dealing with a matter one way which could have been dealt with another is insufficient.

  47. Maggie Bird ‏@Magpie1954nBird 51m51 minutes ago

    @TonyAbbottMHR has been caught in a lie.PatrolBoats promised 4 Adelaide now promised to WA 2bolster the bi election danger. Same funds&jobs

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