I’m a day late in reporting on this one, but the latest quarterly EMRS survey of voting intention in Tasmania is the softest result for the Liberals since March 2010, crediting them with a primary vote of 40% – down from 46% in the May poll (although this followed successive result of 42%), and 51.2% at the March 2014 election. However, this hasn’t done any direct good for Labor, who are steady at 29%. The Greens, who tend to do excessively well in EMRS polls, are up two to 21%, with independents up three to 9%. Reflecting voting intention, both leaders are down three points on preferred premier at the expense of uncommitted, leaving Will Hodgman on 49% and Bryan Green on 21%. The poll was conducted from 1000 respondents over a week from last Saturday to Friday.
Awesome, thanks! Interesting to see the Greens rebuild so effectively and quickly after so many people wrote them off.
I wouldn’t believe the Greens have rebuilt anywhere near that much and I’m sceptical even of my own adjusted estimate of 18% for them in this poll (my aggregate has them on 15.7).
My coverage of this poll:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/emrs-surprise-slide-for-liberals.html
I have increasing concerns about the reliability of EMRS quite aside from what we know from past elections. However they were pretty close with their final poll a month out last year so I won’t write them off yet.
This seems pretty rubbery to me. 50% Lab/Grn after the widest in the election? Right.
Need to see it hold up in trend before I put any weight on it. Shame state level polling is so infrequent.
“Widest” should be “wipeout” in above.
@teh_drewski
A significant part of that “wipeout” seems to have instantly melted away. The trend back to Labor + Greens has been almost immediate and pretty consistent in EMRS polls since right after the election.
Here’s a brief history of Labor + Greens numbers in EMRS & Elections
45 February 2012
45 May 2012
49 August 2012
42 November 2012
41 Feb 2013
42 May 2013
43 September 2013
41 November 2013
40 February 2014
41 (Election result in March 2014) “Wipeout”, Liberals elected
46 May 2014
49 August 2014
50 November 2014
49 February 2015
48 May 2015
50 August 2015
So the trend of Labor + Greens getting just about 50% in EMRS has been fairly consistent since the election. They will want a bit more than that to get a governing majority though.
The Liberal primary vote trending down in a pretty straight forward way is also creating more room for Labor / Greens expansion.
Take a look at KB’s blog above for more info about bias / house effects / interpretation of EMRS results, the numbers I posted above are just the raw numbers as they are published.
See their site for party trend lines: http://www.emrs.com.au/
Thanks for that. Looks like around 5% can be attributed to “we just want rid of this government but aren’t switching parties permanently” which came back immediately.
Basically a year of 48-50% then, which is more consistent than I had assumed. Still not sure I trust it to hold up in an actual vote, but the Greens especially would have to be pleased with how they’ve bounced back from the election.
A part of the rise in ALP+Green support is that Palmer United who polled 5% at the state election have disappeared.