Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

Ipsos adds to the drumbeat of bad-to-terrible polling for the Abbott government.

Fairfax has gotten in early-ish with the results of its latest monthly Ipsos poll, which is well in line with recent form in having Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, up from 53-47. The primary votes have Labor up one to 36%, the Coalition down one to 38%, the Greens steady at a still unusually high level of 16%, and Palmer United scoring one of their occasional showings at 2% rather than the more common 1%. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 43-39 to 45-39 – approval ratings should be along later. A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull leading on 41%, Julie Bishop on 23% and Tony Abbott on 15%. Further findings: 69% support for same-sex marriage with 25% opposed; 58% believe the government is doing too little on climate change, with 32% opting for about right.

UPDATE: The approval ratings are interesting in showing a recovery for Bill Shorten, who is up four points on approval to 39% with disapproval down six to 49%. Tony Abbott on the other hand is mired at 59% disapproval, and down one on approval to 35%. Shorten has consistently done relatively well on net approval in Ipsos, which is presumably related to its lower uncommitted ratings. ReachTEL, it seems, gets still more positive for Shorten by eliminating an uncommitted option altogether.

UPDATE 2: The respondent-allocated preferences result records Labor’s lead blowing out all the way to 56-44, after being equal with the headline figure on 53-47 last time. As this scatterplot shows, there has been a strong trend away from the Coalition on preferences in respondent-allocated polling conducted since the 2013 election. Contributing factors include a rise in the Greens’ share of the non-major party vote, and the Palmer United collapse.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average swims against the tide in recording a small shift in the Coalition’s favour, reducing the Labor lead from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up one), 38% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The most interesting of the supplementary questions relates to approval of government ministers, which delivers an excellent result for Julie Bishop of 56% approval and 22% disapproval, with Malcolm Turnbull close behind at 47% and 24%. Bottom of the table of seven by some margin is Joe Hockey, at 31% and 48%. Other questions register a conviction that a re-elected Coalition would introduce laws like WorkChoices (44% likely versus 26% unlikely), and a belief that not enough is being done to tackle climate change (53%, versus 24% for doing enough and 7% for doing too much).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,192 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 44
1 … 40 41 42 … 44

  1. It’s good to see Labor laughing. Shows they’re not being cowed.

    [Kiera ‏@KieraGorden · 14m14 minutes ago
    This reaction from Dreyfus, Burke & Plibersek to Julie Bishop is too good not to share! #AusPol via @alexandracraig pic.twitter.com/uMAqWziicB ]

  2. Yabba88
    Ah, that brings back memories – all bad.
    I used to work at the ‘Piggery’ – making pig iron ingots, than transferred to the main foundry where on a couple of occasions I helped ‘tap the furnace’ and watched the molten steel flow creating a scene from Hell with the glow and the fumes and the sparkling graphite in the air which settled everywhere like a million tiny mirrors, got out of it and into helping build the new [then] power house to supply the electric arc furnace which when used, 6 times a day, used to dim the lights in the town.

    Been nearly 50 years now, don’t miss it a bit.

  4. [Federal Court intervenes to correct a Govt lie on #coalslaw – not a Court decision, an agreement by parties]
    A tough question for the panel. Can you name an institution or convention that PMTA would not be prepared to verbal and or trash .

  9. [ ratsak
    Posted Wednesday, August 19, 2015 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    …. all the chickens are coming home to roost.

    Abbott gives the guy who gave him a Rhodes Scholarship a multi-million dollar gig heading his ‘get Labor’ witch hunt. ]

    Also abbott’s response last week as to whether Hayden was on the panel which awarded him the Rhodes…(before the confirmation came out)

    [ I don’t recall, sorry ]

    With what has come out since, he was telling porkies yet again and needs to be called on it.

  10. [‘Commissioner Heydon insults a crime’]

    it would be interesting to find out from the Oz article just how Heydon went about insulting the crime.

  11. tielec #1971:

    I thought wrought iron was less susceptible to ‘vibration’ than most others forms of iron. Indeed the slag content, which is flexible, is one of the reasons that wrought iron has good tension and compression properties.

    Well it’s less brittle than cast iron, because most of the graphite has be worked out of it (“wrought”). In that sense it’s really just steel made by a different process (physical rather than chemical removal of excess carbon).

    Slag inclusions are a defect; well made wrought iron does not contain them. They do not confer any desirable properties.

    Yes the term is often incorrectly applied. “Wrought iron lacework” on historical buildings is usually just plain old grey cast iron.

    teh_drewski #1961:

    CTar1 – on the other hand, some types of iron are used specifically for their extremely high vibration tolerance compared to steel.

    Don’t think so. Cast iron is cheap, heavy, stiff, and easy to shape and work. Mostly it’s preferred because a bigger, heavier, stiffer part will always vibrate less, so be “more vibration resistant”. Fatigue resistance is another matter though — steel has a much better fatigue life wherever stress cycles include tension.

  14. The joy of the Bludger lounge. A few days ago much education as the lawyers “talked shop” and now education from engineer types.

  15. As if Abbott’s ability to self-destruct is not sufficiently expedited by his own actions, clearly someone within his cabal is doing their darndest to help him with these daily leaks. One senses that something will give way shortly, tempers are clearly fraying.

  18. Yabba88 – thanks for the info. Not so much that I was confused as to the differences between wrought and cast iron, which I’m aware of, just that I couldn’t think of any other reason wrought iron would be vulnerable to vibration. But perhaps it isn’t in fact vulnerable in that way, I don’t know.

  19. Another media mogul hacker?

    In his new book The War on Journalism: Media Moguls, Whistleblowers and the Price of Freedom, ex-ABC journalist Andrew Fowler drops a bombshell. Fowler claims the late media mogul Kerry Packer hired a top private investigator to hack the telephone of the former Labor prime minister Paul Keating. The context was the period leading up to the 1996 election and Keating had just knocked back Packer’s Optus-Telstra duopoly plan. Packer was furious and he “let loose the dogs of war against Keating”.

  26. [looking forward to Poolman & Sales confess they were taken as fools by Kathy on tonights 7.30 report]

    *splutters*

    You’ll be waiting a while. 😀 Has Pyne admitted his own error of judgement re Jackson yet?

  27. 7.30 Report… Thompson saying Kathy Jackson’s illegalities were know to “all ” during his investigations… Hayden Cooper not one mention of Toolmans involvement in all this.

    Usual high standard of crap being delivered..

  28. Shea
    My university holiday job was on the blast furnace floor in Newcastle. The tapping was like a scene from hell but after that the real work began digging the rapidly cooling pig out of the runners with shovel and pick.
    A filthy dangerous disgusting job. I felt priviliged to be able to return to a university course which was free thanks to Whitlam.

  29. confessions

    Not to mention all the H.R. Nicholls Society chappies

    [IT WAS clearly music to the conservative members of the H.R. Nicholls Society, an organisation dedicated to putting unions to the sword, as Kathy Jackson, the nation’s most notorious union warrior, whaled into her enemies in the Labor and industrial movements.

    No less than federal Workplace Minister Bill Shorten, Jackson declared, was ”an international grand master of the process of using unions as chess pieces in ALP factional warfare”.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/union-secretary-takes-fight-into-heartland-of-the-old-foe-20120612-208iq.html#ixzz3jFjnO2yX

    Bonus pic of Peter “:Phone Card” Reith having din dins at the soirée.

  32. Jobs ?

    Nah, not for Barnarbi.

    Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 9m9 minutes ago Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

    So @Barnaby_Joyce supports Adani jobs but not Shenwa jobs in his own electorate.

  33. You’d think that a half decent report on the demise of Kathy Jackson would have at least mentioned her appearance before the TURC.
    There’s a lot very dodgy about this story, but don’t expect it to be revealed by the ABC.

  46. [In the aftermath of the damning Federal Court judgment against her on Wednesday, the praise once lavished on the former union leader by those who too readily accepted her portrayal as a self-styled whistleblower now reads like a sick joke.

    Tony Abbott, on the day his government released the terms of reference into the trade unions royal commission, described Jackson’s conduct as heroic. He had previously called her a “very credible whistleblower” and a “brave decent woman”, standing up for 70,000 workers who did not deserve to have their union dues misused.]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/policy/industrial-relations/kathy-jackson-the-whistleblower-exposed-20150819-gj2vda#ixzz3jFrkNU3p
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  47. Diog

    [ Do we have any suggestions as to who is leaking? ]

    I reckon it would be easier to identify who’s not leaking …

    **crickets**

  48. sports.betfair.com has opened a new market on the next election.

    “Next Elected Prime Minister”

    Only just up, so no bid/offers as yet, but will be interesting how this market pans out. Tony is less than even odds to make it to the next election so it will be interesting to see what the punters think his chances of both making to the next election and winning it are.

    Cannning by-election market is also open – but as yet not action either.

  49. Diogenes

    [Do we have any suggestions as to who is leaking? Turnbull? Bishop? Backbenchers?]
    From waaaaay out of ‘left field’ how about Peta ? She put in an Herculean near miraculous effort to rein in the Abbott so as ,even with Murdoch, make him electable. To see him throw off her restraints and render her effort pointless would rooly grate.

  50. [Do we have any suggestions as to who is leaking? Turnbull? Bishop? Backbenchers?]

    Who benefits from the leaking? There are a number of people, but Morrison tops the list for me.

Comments Page 41 of 44
1 … 40 41 42 … 44

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *