Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

Ipsos adds to the drumbeat of bad-to-terrible polling for the Abbott government.

Fairfax has gotten in early-ish with the results of its latest monthly Ipsos poll, which is well in line with recent form in having Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, up from 53-47. The primary votes have Labor up one to 36%, the Coalition down one to 38%, the Greens steady at a still unusually high level of 16%, and Palmer United scoring one of their occasional showings at 2% rather than the more common 1%. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 43-39 to 45-39 – approval ratings should be along later. A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull leading on 41%, Julie Bishop on 23% and Tony Abbott on 15%. Further findings: 69% support for same-sex marriage with 25% opposed; 58% believe the government is doing too little on climate change, with 32% opting for about right.

UPDATE: The approval ratings are interesting in showing a recovery for Bill Shorten, who is up four points on approval to 39% with disapproval down six to 49%. Tony Abbott on the other hand is mired at 59% disapproval, and down one on approval to 35%. Shorten has consistently done relatively well on net approval in Ipsos, which is presumably related to its lower uncommitted ratings. ReachTEL, it seems, gets still more positive for Shorten by eliminating an uncommitted option altogether.

UPDATE 2: The respondent-allocated preferences result records Labor’s lead blowing out all the way to 56-44, after being equal with the headline figure on 53-47 last time. As this scatterplot shows, there has been a strong trend away from the Coalition on preferences in respondent-allocated polling conducted since the 2013 election. Contributing factors include a rise in the Greens’ share of the non-major party vote, and the Palmer United collapse.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average swims against the tide in recording a small shift in the Coalition’s favour, reducing the Labor lead from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up one), 38% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The most interesting of the supplementary questions relates to approval of government ministers, which delivers an excellent result for Julie Bishop of 56% approval and 22% disapproval, with Malcolm Turnbull close behind at 47% and 24%. Bottom of the table of seven by some margin is Joe Hockey, at 31% and 48%. Other questions register a conviction that a re-elected Coalition would introduce laws like WorkChoices (44% likely versus 26% unlikely), and a belief that not enough is being done to tackle climate change (53%, versus 24% for doing enough and 7% for doing too much).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,192 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. teh

    [So after going to all that effort to get the oxygen out, they have to blow oxygen back through their molten steel as part of converting it from refined iron, to reduce the amount of carbon.]

    Is this the reason why wrought iron is vulnerable to vibration?

  3. CTar1

    [USD O.74]
    When Abbott and his band of shonks were screaming “Carbon Tax” being to blame for an aluminium smelter closing, the smelter’s boss pointed out that a 1c rise in exchange rates had as much effect. Put it into perspective, not than anyone seemed to notice.

  4. On the issue of winning the next election, the Coalition simply cannot do it if Abbott is leading them at that stage.

    Another example is attacking Bill Shorten on the issue of trust. If Abbott wants to go to the next election claiming he can be trusted, it will be the greatest landslide of all time to Labor.

  7. davidwh @ 1901

    If someone were to be prosecuted for contempt against Heydon or the Royal Witch Hunt because of intemperate criticism, that would be the death knell for the Commissioner and his project.

    Of course, a criminal threat or an allegation that goes far beyond what is acceptable in political discourse in Australia is another matter.

    So far, the criticisms have been sufficiently founded in reasonableness, even those alleging actual bias, to render the critics safe from prosecution.

  8. CTar1 – I believe it’s the “slag” (silicon/oxide impurities) content in wrought iron that leads to it being susceptible to damage from vibration, but I could be wrong.

  9. TPOF I don’t have any problem with the comments/criticisms aimed at Heydon to date. I wasn’t referring to the usual political and legal argy-bargy.

  11. CTar1 – on the other hand, some types of iron are used specifically for their extremely high vibration tolerance compared to steel.

    So I have to confess to being out of my depth on that one!

  12. teh

    [I believe it’s the “slag” (silicon/oxide impurities) content in wrought iron that leads to it being susceptible to damage from vibration]

    Ta. It did no good for the Tay Bridge and now is a major player in the need for serious work to be done to the Palace of Westminster (put down to foundation movement – many of the structural beams are made of it).

  13. [Daniel Hurst
    Daniel Hurst – Verified account ‏@danielhurstbne

    #TURC has just announced plans for two weeks of hearings in Brisbane in September “as part of its inquiry into the QLD branch of the CFMEU”]

  14. davidwh @ 1912

    [The best thing he could do now is wait for a few days and see what Heydon does. It really should be left to Heydon and the courts to decide if there is in fact anything to decide.]

    Abbott cannot afford to have Heydon return the letters patent at this stage. While you may have no problems with rooting out corruption in unions (hey, I have no problem with motherhood either) the only purpose that this witch hunt ever had was to fashion the bullets by which the Coalition could win the next election. If Heydon goes, his commission goes with him. If the commission goes, the last plank of the Coalition’s re-election strategy goes with it. These guys never planned to win the next election on policy and vision. The whole case was that Labor were even worse that current mob.

    [After 2016 Labor can hold a few RC’s on some of the things the Libs have done since 2013. Border Control would be a doozy :)]

    Unlike others here, I sincerely hope not. Any Federal Royal Commission that is not directly focussed on dealing with a genuine deep-seated problem that simply cannot be dealt with any other way is no good. Certainly not one that smacks of political objectives.

    I hope after the next election that this nation returns to politics fought far more on the contest of policy ideas and competing visions, not competing slogans and political bastardry.

  15. Prepare to be as shocked as I was to see this as the lead story in The Australian’s business section at the moment. Mandy Rice-Davies come on down.

    [Netflix ‘can’t compete’ with Foxtel ]

  17. [Netflix ‘can’t compete’ with Foxtel]

    does it go on to say – because of lack of bandwidth and data limits on Australian internet connections that a proper NBN (the likes of which I got a letter informing me I’d be connected to sometime from September just coincidently 😉 ) would fix and see Foxtel die in a ditch – perchance?

  18. sm @ 1925

    [There are some people, and not all of them are employed by Murdoch, who whenever Tony says something jump straight into apologetic mode to tell us that its not what he really meant, the other mob say it too, if you squint whilst leaning to the right it almost begins to make sense …..]

    Absolutely. I’ve never seen so many apologists eager to tell us what a PM was really saying.

    The really terrible thing about that practice is that when what the apologists tell us Abbott was really saying turns out to be wrong or an outright lie, Abbott points to what he really said which implied the translation given, but had enough weasel words for him to say – well just about anything he wants.

  19. In light of KJackson verdict today, and the current TURC saga, this article from December 2014 is damning

    [motivated inquiry turns out to be an alleged thief who may have stolen more than $1 million? Just ignore it.
    The credibility of the Royal Commission into trade union governance and corruption should suffer a serious blow from its glaring omissions on the allegedly corrupt behaviour of Kathy Jackson and how it has treated her throughout these hearings.
    The inquiry has always appeared politically motivated but the question was, despite this, was it a worthwhile process to root out corruption in the union movement and lead to a well-needed overhaul of questionable governance practices around slush funds and the like. The jury has been out on that.

    Yet the 1817-page interim report by Commissioner Dyson Heydon dealt with a range of issues both serious and trivial but ignored Jackson. There was an oblique reference, without naming her, that other issues to do with the Health Services Union would be dealt with in a future report.
    This inquiry, as the union movement has claimed, is a witchhunt and a waste of money if it is prepared to recommend charges against some other union officials for relatively minor transgressions but ignore the conduct of Jackson, a Coalition hero for exposing corruption in her union.
    Dyson Heydon’s interim report fails to deal with the documentary evidence against Jackson, her own admissions and the recommendation of his own counsel assisting Jeremy Stoljar, that charges be considered against her for submitting a “false claim” to the Peter MacCallum cancer hospital.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/failure-to-deal-with-kathy-jackson-undermines-credibility-of-royal-commission-20141219-12aof9.html#ixzz3jFATKvs7
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  20. [ Any Federal Royal Commission that is not directly focussed on dealing with a genuine deep-seated problem that simply cannot be dealt with any other way is no good. ]

    And maybe they need to look at changing the criteria / legislation for how an RC is set up so that the abuses of process committed by this Govt in that respect cant happen again??

    A bit like the superannuation stuff where there have been calls to get the actual purpose of the system into legislation??

    All that said, allowing the current RC into child abuse to look into matters pertaining to our detention centers is something i think should happen under the next govt.

  21. I thought wrought iron was less susceptible to ‘vibration’ than most others forms of iron. Indeed the slag content, which is flexible, is one of the reasons that wrought iron has good tension and compression properties.

    I think much of what passes for ‘wrought iron’ in modern times is actually cast iron, which is definitely susceptible to tension.

  23. imacca @ 1970

    [And maybe they need to look at changing the criteria / legislation for how an RC is set up so that the abuses of process committed by this Govt in that respect cant happen again??]

    Labor should repeal the Royal Commissions Act, which is now open to abuse by the Government of the day and any future Royal Commission should be set up by its own Act of Parliament. Neither of the Abbott Witch Hunts would have been able to be set up in that situation – but the sexual abuse one, which had terms of reference supported across the political spectrum, could.

  25. Victoria,

    As I alluded to earlier, all the chickens are coming home to roost.

    Abbott gives the guy who gave him a Rhodes Scholarship a multi-million dollar gig heading his ‘get Labor’ witch hunt.

    Abbott appoints a mate Michael Lawler to a very nice paying gig to the IRC (now Fair Work Australia)

    Abbott jumps all over Kathy Jackson as she smears all and sundry to deflect people from looking at her own misdeeds.

    Kathy Jackson just happens to be jumping all over ole mate Lawler.

    Kathy appears before ole mate Dyson’s commission to continue her smear campaign but gets the kid gloves treatment instead of the third degree she deserved as the biggest crook to front the TURC.

    Ole mate Lawler has been up to no good appearing for Kathy in court whilst taking ridiculously long sick leave breaks and organising some dodgy deals to get Kathy’s ill gotten gains put at arms length. Abbott says he can’t do anything about it, but everyone points out that as a judicial officer only the parliament can do anything about Lawler http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/industrial-relations/silks-say-parliament-must-act-on-michael-lawler/story-fn59noo3-1227436026389

    Ole Mate Dyson gets sprung being a dope by accepting invites to speak at a Liberal Party fundraiser.

    Abbott defends ole mate Dyson.

    Kathy goes down to the tune of $1.4mil but still no charges layed even after Williamson and Thomson have been through the courts and convicted (Thommo for what about 1% of Kathy’s haul)

    It’s all rather messy really isn’t it, and one Anthony John Abbott is in the thick of the lot of it.

  26. TPOF at 1964

    I hear what you’re saying but…..the reality is that border control on Manus Is & Naura at least must be looked at under a RC. I like the thought of the moral high ground but after seeing the Coalition’s performance since 2010, I would be very reticent to let them off the hook in any way. Their bastardry must have consequences of some form or it will be repeated regardless.

  27. CE @ 1976

    My point at 1964 was more of a general principle than specifically about the detention regimes on Manus and Nauru.

    I suspect that such a Royal Commission could well be set up by Act of Parliament. The Senate as currently constituted would pass such an Act.

  28. tielec

    [I think much of what passes for ‘wrought iron’ in modern times is actually cast iron, which is definitely susceptible to tension.]

    Could be right.

  29. Whether a request to the GG to set up a RC is purely the reserve of the executive, or whether it can be requested by Parliament, is one of those high court challenges I’d love to see fought.

    I *suspect* that it’s executive only, but there may well be alternative interpretations.

  31. 1977

    Royal commissions are an exercise of executive power, not legislative power.

    The clue is in the name “Royal commission”, stating that it is a power of the monarch (delegated to the Governors and Governor-General and exercised on the advice of the relevant ministers) not the parliament.

  35. A giraffe of a section on Sky’s Stan Grant program. After showing EricA’s leak comment and telling of the shortly thereafter leaking of the “Talking Points” for the day clips showing Abbott + Abetz using the lines.

  36. I like this 🙂

    [Sarah Hanson-Young ‏@sarahinthesen8 · 18h18 hours ago
    How long before Tony Abbott’s cabinet files for divorce?]

  38. tfab and td

    Technically they are exercises of executive power. But the Act provides all the necessary protections to enable the RCs to be conducted. Some of these are not necessary if a judge is appointed, but most still are. And these protections are needed or it would be pretty impossible to conduct one effectively and to compel answers, etc.

  40. teh_drewski I believe that you are confusing cast iron and wrought iron. Cast Iron is the output of a blast furnace, which contains more carbon than steel, and is cooled down quite quickly, leading to rapid formation of irregular crystals, with inbuilt tensions, which cause it to it being quite brittle, and susceptible to sharp blows, or vibration. Wrought iron, which is in fact rarely made these days, is an early form of purified iron, where cast iron is heated as a bar, and beaten with hammers as it slowly cools, which both reduces the carbon content, and allows regular, small crystals to form, without inner tension. Such wrought iron is very strong, tough and resilient. It is what swords were/are made of. Steel is machine made wrought iron, with somewhat more carbon, but also regular small crystals, which are brought about first by blowing oxygen through the molten iron plus carbon, then casting, then reheating and allowing the metal to slowly cool, or anneal. Almost all other impurities are removed in the initial blast furnace process, which is fed with crushed iron ore, coke, and limestone (calcium carbonate). The calcium combines with silica, phosphorus and other minor impurities to form molten slag, which floats on top of the molten iron. The iron is tapped from below, and tapping stops as soon as the slag starts to flow. The slag then also tapped off, allowed to solidify, then crushed, and used as a component in roadbase, or just piled up in bloody great ugly heaps.

    cheers, Yabba (BE Chem (Hons))

  41. Basha Stasak
    Basha Stasak – ‏@bashastasak

    Tonight @Lateline Jeff Smith of @EdoNSW will debate proposed changes to environmental laws with Michael Roche of @QRCouncil @AusConservation

  42. Ctar1 @1955:

    Has Karen McNamara succumbed to the noddy problem?

    She disappeared during QT.

    Wasn’t she sent out? And am I correct in thinking that Smith is already approaching Bishop on total number of Coalition MPs sent out?

  47. OK this is seriously weird and freaking me out no end.
    Philip Ruddock, who won the 9th Annual McDuffian Worst and Sleaziest Politician Award [Runner -up Kevin Andrews], has just said something that shows a glimmer of understanding and decency.

    [The former Howard government minister Philip Ruddock has raised concerns about his own government’s plan to stop environmental groups using legal challenges to “sabotage” mining developments.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/aug/19/philip-ruddock-questions-move-stop-green-groups-challenging-mining-proposals?CMP=soc_567

  49. [Margo Kingston ‏@margokingston1 · 4m4 minutes ago
    Now Federal Court intervenes to correct a Govt lie on #coalslaw – not a Court decision, an agreement by parties
    https://twitter.com/katiepwalsh/status/633871362310836224 ]

    Kinda puts the whole of the government’s bullshit about changing the law in context doesn’t it. The AGS (being pros not cowboys like the Government) disclosed that the dept had stuffed up and so the only course was to set aside the decision. No argument, no hearing, just a check that all was in order finding it wasn’t.

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