Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

Ipsos adds to the drumbeat of bad-to-terrible polling for the Abbott government.

Fairfax has gotten in early-ish with the results of its latest monthly Ipsos poll, which is well in line with recent form in having Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, up from 53-47. The primary votes have Labor up one to 36%, the Coalition down one to 38%, the Greens steady at a still unusually high level of 16%, and Palmer United scoring one of their occasional showings at 2% rather than the more common 1%. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 43-39 to 45-39 – approval ratings should be along later. A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull leading on 41%, Julie Bishop on 23% and Tony Abbott on 15%. Further findings: 69% support for same-sex marriage with 25% opposed; 58% believe the government is doing too little on climate change, with 32% opting for about right.

UPDATE: The approval ratings are interesting in showing a recovery for Bill Shorten, who is up four points on approval to 39% with disapproval down six to 49%. Tony Abbott on the other hand is mired at 59% disapproval, and down one on approval to 35%. Shorten has consistently done relatively well on net approval in Ipsos, which is presumably related to its lower uncommitted ratings. ReachTEL, it seems, gets still more positive for Shorten by eliminating an uncommitted option altogether.

UPDATE 2: The respondent-allocated preferences result records Labor’s lead blowing out all the way to 56-44, after being equal with the headline figure on 53-47 last time. As this scatterplot shows, there has been a strong trend away from the Coalition on preferences in respondent-allocated polling conducted since the 2013 election. Contributing factors include a rise in the Greens’ share of the non-major party vote, and the Palmer United collapse.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average swims against the tide in recording a small shift in the Coalition’s favour, reducing the Labor lead from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up one), 38% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The most interesting of the supplementary questions relates to approval of government ministers, which delivers an excellent result for Julie Bishop of 56% approval and 22% disapproval, with Malcolm Turnbull close behind at 47% and 24%. Bottom of the table of seven by some margin is Joe Hockey, at 31% and 48%. Other questions register a conviction that a re-elected Coalition would introduce laws like WorkChoices (44% likely versus 26% unlikely), and a belief that not enough is being done to tackle climate change (53%, versus 24% for doing enough and 7% for doing too much).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,192 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. abbott was only boasting yesterday in Adelaide about “Two years of good Government”.
    I’d hate to see his version of what two years of very poor Government under him would look like.

  3. Mr 15%. Why does he bother?

    [@GhostWhoVotes: #Ipsos Poll Preferred LIB Leader: Abbott 15 (-4) Turnbull 41 (+2) Bishop 23 (-1) #auspol]

  4. Almost impossible to see the Govt clawing back that margin with a clearly poisonous leader in Tony Abbott.

    Bill Shorten is being gifted the Lodge, just like Abbott was.

    Incredible.

  11. 10 point recovery for Shorten on approval.

    Id just like to put four words in your head, LNP:

    ‘ONE TERM NIGHTMARE HUMILIATION’

    or, indeed

    ‘WORSE THAN RUDD/ GILLARD’

  13. The really important point in the commentary was that THIS was supposed to be the month when things turned around and Shorten was supposed to take Labor’s chances down the plughole with him.

    Even before this, the TURC was not going to take Shorten down, but this has been completely discredited… they expected the ALP conference to be a bloodbath, aaaaand no. Things weren’t looking great before this, but it’s a double-blessing.

  14. In fact, the numbers are even worse:

    “According to the stated second preferences of respondents, rather than the allocation of second preferences as they flowed in September 2013, the situation for Coalition MPs is even worse. On this measure, the government has cornered just 44 per cent support to Labor’s 56 – a 12 point gap – representing a 9.5 per cent swing that would wipe out as many as 44 seats.”

    With gay marriage support at 69%, with 25% opposing how is Tones going to make up the deficit? I can just imagine the scare campaign he’s got Eric, Scott and Cory working on.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-leadership-faces-new-dangers-as-new-ipsos-poll-predicts-coalition-wipeout-20150816-gj01ip.html

  16. After such an appalling week I think a lot in the Coalition would take 46-54 and be very glad it wasn’t worse. Looks like we’ll have to wait another week to see if Newspoll whacks them round the ears as well.

  21. 9.5% (uniform) would see everyone up to Mal Brough wiped out for the Coalition.

    Plenty of trembling backbenchers in the LNP party room tomorrow morning.

  24. Roger Miller@15

    Was it a bad time to put out a story about how fit the PM was?

    That plus more seats for women plus dob-in-a-dealer looks like a desperate attempt by the PMO to flush the news cycle. That said I don’t know when the fitness interview was conducted.

  25. 36 seats at risk!! but the Liberals supporters keep telling everyone that their policy settings are supported by the people.

  26. BK@12

    Is Abbott’s ignominious departure even closer now?

    Has to be.

    This is just more pressure.

    ME, TURC perception of bais etc are not going away and the economy, jobs etc are not improving.

    Plus the tories are tearing themselves apart – no doubt far worse in private.

    Tomorrow should see a SSO motion to enable ME Bill to be voted on immediately. How many tories will cross the floor on that motion ?

    None of abbott’s problems are going away – so he will no doubt make them worse.

  28. I notice that Shorten gets much better net ratings from Ipsos than other pollsters, which I presume is related to the unusually low uncommitted results it gets from its leadership polling, for reasons I’ve never understood (it happened with Nielsen too). I also presume this is related to the fact that ReachTEL gets the best results of all for Shorten by removing uncommitted altogether.

  30. Yeah Vic – the more it drags on the more likely I guess.

    A Federal Court Case, or a RC witness openly challenging Hayden are all possible.

  31. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fairfax-poll-forget-scomo-malcolm-turnbull-is-the-choice-if-tony-abbott-tumbles-20150816-gj09lg.html
    [Fairfax poll: Forget ScoMo, Malcolm Turnbull is the choice if Tony Abbott tumbles
    August 16, 2015 – 6:18PM
    Michael Gordon
    Political editor, The Age

    This is a result that clarifies the choice for Liberal Party MPs if, and when, they decide they cannot go to the next election under Tony Abbott’s leadership.

    Malcolm Turnbull has firmed as the public’s choice of Liberal leader, while the Coalition vote has gone backwards since the Prime Minister survived a leadership spill motion in February.

    Turnbull has a whopping 18-point lead over the next most favoured choice in Julia Bishop; a 26-point lead over Abbott, and a 36-point lead over the circling Scott (ScoMo) Morrison and the struggling Joe Hockey.]

  32. Bronwyn Bishop, and Abbotts support of her, has almost guaranteed the Lodge for luckiest politician in the country, Bill Shorten.

    They’ve amazingly torched themselves.

  35. Mark NewtON OFF ON ‏@NewtonMark 7m7 minutes ago

    Liberal Party Room can’t make a decision about who they want as leader, demands a plebiscite after the next election.

  36. [After such an appalling week I think a lot in the Coalition would take 46-54 and be very glad it wasn’t worse. Looks like we’ll have to wait another week to see if Newspoll whacks them round the ears as well.]

    I agree, which is why I think the respondent allocated preferences of 56-44 is probably more accurate.

  37. The unions might be better off encouraging him to say in his royal commission role, as long as he is there only the hard core Liberal base will take the findings seriously.

  39. [It’s OK. As you were. I’ve worked it out. You don’t like Shorten and the Commish got stuck into him. Therefore the Commish is a good guy.]

    Bullseye, lizzie.

    Mad as a Two Bob Watch doesn’t have much depth, so it is not hard to unpick her curious logic. Without Gillard on the scene, she has had to find new Labor “baddies”…

    *sigh*

  42. BK@22

    Kevin B
    Galaxy have been on the phones this weekend.

    Ta; that would be very handy. (Did someone post about having been polled by them here?)

    Actually they called me, but only to ask why I changed mobile phone company.

  44. I suspect the TURC stuff is all a bit inside politics for most people, but it’s certainly lost credibility which likely stops it from breaking out in the negative for Labor (if, indeed, it was ever going to considering the lack of any real smoking guns against Shorten and the current Labor leadership thus far).

  46. Seeing Fairfax being the anti-Coalition shit sheet it is these days won’t tell us preferred Labor Leader here is a list I made up instead:

    Tanya Plebesek – 35%
    Anthony Albanese – 22%
    Tony Burke – 10%
    Bill Shorten – 8%
    Box of Crayons – 39%

  47. victoria@34

    I reckon the coalition wil split if Turnbull gets the gig to lead

    So Turnbull might be told if he gets the leadership he has to do as told by the party room, meaning stick to current policies ?

    Still a huge IF, I add.

  50. [TURC hearing continues tomorrow. We shall see if anything transpires]

    The legal profession seems to set very low standards for themselves indeed, it is embarrassing, so I don’t think there is much benefit in anything actually happening in it, unless the Royal Commissioner is going to do the right thing and announce he is quitting and suspend the hearings.

    This is a political matter and labor does better the longer the farce goes on and the more the general population laughs at it and Abbott. It was always a political circus just now it is entertaining the wrong half of the crowd!

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