Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

Ipsos adds to the drumbeat of bad-to-terrible polling for the Abbott government.

Fairfax has gotten in early-ish with the results of its latest monthly Ipsos poll, which is well in line with recent form in having Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, up from 53-47. The primary votes have Labor up one to 36%, the Coalition down one to 38%, the Greens steady at a still unusually high level of 16%, and Palmer United scoring one of their occasional showings at 2% rather than the more common 1%. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 43-39 to 45-39 – approval ratings should be along later. A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull leading on 41%, Julie Bishop on 23% and Tony Abbott on 15%. Further findings: 69% support for same-sex marriage with 25% opposed; 58% believe the government is doing too little on climate change, with 32% opting for about right.

UPDATE: The approval ratings are interesting in showing a recovery for Bill Shorten, who is up four points on approval to 39% with disapproval down six to 49%. Tony Abbott on the other hand is mired at 59% disapproval, and down one on approval to 35%. Shorten has consistently done relatively well on net approval in Ipsos, which is presumably related to its lower uncommitted ratings. ReachTEL, it seems, gets still more positive for Shorten by eliminating an uncommitted option altogether.

UPDATE 2: The respondent-allocated preferences result records Labor’s lead blowing out all the way to 56-44, after being equal with the headline figure on 53-47 last time. As this scatterplot shows, there has been a strong trend away from the Coalition on preferences in respondent-allocated polling conducted since the 2013 election. Contributing factors include a rise in the Greens’ share of the non-major party vote, and the Palmer United collapse.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average swims against the tide in recording a small shift in the Coalition’s favour, reducing the Labor lead from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up one), 38% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The most interesting of the supplementary questions relates to approval of government ministers, which delivers an excellent result for Julie Bishop of 56% approval and 22% disapproval, with Malcolm Turnbull close behind at 47% and 24%. Bottom of the table of seven by some margin is Joe Hockey, at 31% and 48%. Other questions register a conviction that a re-elected Coalition would introduce laws like WorkChoices (44% likely versus 26% unlikely), and a belief that not enough is being done to tackle climate change (53%, versus 24% for doing enough and 7% for doing too much).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,192 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. I am unfamiliar with the feeling of enjoying the misfortunes of others. It is not something I have done much of, I can say.

    Now, to make up for lost time. :devil:

  2. [ReachTEL gets the best results of all for Shorten by removing uncommitted altogether.]

    For PPM I prefer this method because the choice at the next election will be binary.

  3. To reiterate what I posted a few days ago – there is a ridiculously high volume of internal polling being done in South Australia and Victoria at the moment by both parties. The two organisations I know have been polling daily since late July.

    I typically wouldn’t run a commentary but you’d suggest that Abbott’s visit to Adelaide and Pyne’s increased exposure is a reaction to this.

  5. TBA – Hope you didn’t miss this bit –

    [ “According to the stated second preferences of respondents, rather than the allocation of second preferences as they flowed in September 2013, the situation for Coalition MPs is even worse.

    On this measure, the government has cornered just 44 per cent support to Labor’s 56 – a 12 point gap – representing a 9.5 per cent swing that would wipe out as many as 44 seats.” ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-leadership-faces-new-dangers-as-new-ipsos-poll-predicts-coalition-wipeout-20150816-gj01ip.html

    ME support at 69%, with 25% against.

    They are up that well known creek without a paddle.

  6. TBA

    Lets take a deep breathe, the current government is being rejected, the base can cry or it likes a out the make up of the alternative but the voters, the ones that matter are not buying your produce and in business if you ain’t sell your product, all the sulking about the alternative wont stop you from going out of business.

  8. Whoo, this is goood. It is positively evil in its satisfaction. Is this what it is like to see your enemy reap as they sow? There is a part of my brain which is sending smile signals to my face, my legs are actually tingly. Now I find my breathing getting, deeper, slower. I feel like I am melting into the couch.

    “Ipsos Ipsos”

    Hey, it starting again, except I feel like jumping up, punching the air and yelling, ‘Yoweeeeeeeeeeeeeeee’ at the top of my voice.

    I never know cold revenge could be so sweet.

  9. confessions

    [Peter van Onselen ‏…I maintain Libs must stick with the PM. #ipsos ]
    PvO a secret Labor supporter then ? 😉

  11. Abbott furiously searching for more barnacles to jettison.

    Failing that, those weekly security scares, sorry, announcements, are really going to have to be good ones.

  13. Regarding the discussion in the last thread about “discovery” of documents relating to Justice Heydon’s acceptance of the now-notorious speaking gig: the Senate has the power to order the production of documents, and such orders are not confined to ones issued to the government.

    If there numbers were there for such orders to be issued, things could get very interesting.

  14. Mexican

    [Liberals supporters keep telling everyone that their policy settings are supported by the people]

    I bring forward in evidence Ferranti-Wells, who says the people who don’t get surveyed think differently to the ones that are. She’s into the silent majority spiel. 😆

  15. I wonder why the Greens got an unusually high poll result twice in a row – both with Morgan and Ipsos. I thought it’d be more around the high 12-low 13 recorded by Galaxy/ReachTEL.

  17. Liberals don’t accept the science behind anything else they disagree with so I don’t know why they’d accept the science behind opinion polling 😀

  18. Why does he bother, sprocket? Because among Liberal voters “Mr Abbott [still] enjoys the support of 33 per cent to Mr Turnbull on 25”. Those who love him still love him – pity about the swingers whose vote he needs.

  20. poroti:

    It’s curious logic from PvO, as we discussed yesterday. But I’m happy for Abbott to remain where he is. 🙂

  21. Regarding PvO

    Maybe he thinks to save the Liberal brand keep Abbott in. Then in future Libs can say its not the party it was the personality.

  22. PvO believes that the reputation hit to the Liberals from offing a PM in the first term will outweigh any gain from switching to a more palatable leader.

  23. TBA Take a chill pill here’s the numbers you are craving …. outrage …

    “Among all voters since February, Mr Shorten has fallen 4 points as preferred Labor leader to 25 per cent. His deputy, Tanya Plibersek, has risen 4 points to 23 per cent, Anthony Albanese has risen 3 points to 19 per cent while Chris Bowen and Tony Burke bring up the rear on 8 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

    Among Labor voters, Mr Shorten has fallen 9 points since February to 34 per cent as preferred Labor leader. He still bests Ms Plibersek, whose standing among Labor voters has risen 3 points to 24 per cent and Mr Albanese, who has risen 32 points to 19 per cent. ”

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/coalition-slips-further-behind-shortens-approval-rating-improves-20150816-gizznk#ixzz3ixyjpQxC

    And yes, there’s obviously a typo in the Albanese score…

  25. [PvO believes that the reputation hit to the Liberals from offing a PM in the first term will outweigh any gain from switching to a more palatable leader.]

    He might even be right!

  27. PVO is all over the place if you could ever be bothered to follow his tweets.

    He does not know whether he is Arthur or Martha most days. He literally gets excited like a 1930s private school boy over even the slightest polling movements.

    Like so many other in our vapid press, he makes a career out of it.

    That folk can make a living from this sort of nonsense political future telling is a sad indictment on our society.

  28. I want Abbott to stay. I shall enjoy watching him spin in ever-reducing circles until… 😆

    I really wonder how Mark Simkin is faring. He was brought in to save the wallpaper and now all his former friends in the msm have deserted him.

  32. [PvO believes that the reputation hit to the Liberals from offing a PM in the first term will outweigh any gain from switching to a more palatable leader.]

    So he says. But he forgets that the PM being removed is Abbott, who is widely unloved by the public.

    Rather than a ‘reputation hit’ I’m inclined to think voters would actually thank the partyroom for getting rid of him.

  34. teh_drewski

    It may/could/possibly be not as bad as the Rudd chop . Abbott getting the royal order of the boot would not be as big a surprise. Maybe even a relief for voters on both sides.

  36. [
    “I do not believe that I am a vindictive man, but when the immortal gods take a hand in the matter it is pardonable to observe the results with complacency.”
    ― W. Somerset Maugham, Collected Short Stories: Volume 1
    ]

  38. Airlines

    I think that the Greens are seeing growth in the number of entrenched Greens, partly as a result of demographic shifts but also by confirmed switches of former ALPers and some LNPs to the Greens. While 16% seems very high, an entrenched long term of 13% seems likely with fluctuations up of 5% possible. There are now quite a few seats where the greens get more than 20% and even more where they get more than 15%.

    The thing is that ONCE a confirmed Labor voter makes a decision to vote Green as happened in WA, then there is a good chance (maybe 50/50) that they will stay a Green for many future elections. Their preference will go back to labor, so most will think it matters little.

  40. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 7m7 minutes ago
    Twitter has decided the govt is done for. That’s it, that’s all, …

    Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 7m7 minutes ago
    Even fantasies about Labor winning Sturt. Anyone wanna bet?]

  41. poroti/confessions – yeah, I agree. I think PvO is getting hung up on the Rudd removal which really blindsided the general population, whereas even Abbott’s most hardcore supporters won’t be surprised if he was removed.

    Very different situations.

  44. confessions @ 82: When considering the effects of dumping Mr Abbott, there’s a need to take into account not just the immediate effect of appearing like the ALP in its bad days, but the possible flow on effects if Mr Abbott decides not to go quietly.

    It was these latter effects that the ALP caucus ignored in 2010, to its sorrow.

  45. Would not be surprised if the Unions named in the letters patent lodge in the Federal Court tomorrow for an injunction against Heydon’s RC continuing, pending a hearing to have him removed on grounds of apprehended bias.

  50. [This is a News Corpse Journo?

    @PSyvret: This could be a very flag heavy week in Canberra … http://t.co/l63T6zhzYj
    ]

    As the self-proclaimed Twitter expert here, you should have seen his profile where he notes he is a “unionist” and also claims to believe in “Social justice & equity”.

    I guess even Murdoch rags have their token unionist…

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