Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

Ipsos adds to the drumbeat of bad-to-terrible polling for the Abbott government.

Fairfax has gotten in early-ish with the results of its latest monthly Ipsos poll, which is well in line with recent form in having Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, up from 53-47. The primary votes have Labor up one to 36%, the Coalition down one to 38%, the Greens steady at a still unusually high level of 16%, and Palmer United scoring one of their occasional showings at 2% rather than the more common 1%. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 43-39 to 45-39 – approval ratings should be along later. A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull leading on 41%, Julie Bishop on 23% and Tony Abbott on 15%. Further findings: 69% support for same-sex marriage with 25% opposed; 58% believe the government is doing too little on climate change, with 32% opting for about right.

UPDATE: The approval ratings are interesting in showing a recovery for Bill Shorten, who is up four points on approval to 39% with disapproval down six to 49%. Tony Abbott on the other hand is mired at 59% disapproval, and down one on approval to 35%. Shorten has consistently done relatively well on net approval in Ipsos, which is presumably related to its lower uncommitted ratings. ReachTEL, it seems, gets still more positive for Shorten by eliminating an uncommitted option altogether.

UPDATE 2: The respondent-allocated preferences result records Labor’s lead blowing out all the way to 56-44, after being equal with the headline figure on 53-47 last time. As this scatterplot shows, there has been a strong trend away from the Coalition on preferences in respondent-allocated polling conducted since the 2013 election. Contributing factors include a rise in the Greens’ share of the non-major party vote, and the Palmer United collapse.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average swims against the tide in recording a small shift in the Coalition’s favour, reducing the Labor lead from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up one), 38% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The most interesting of the supplementary questions relates to approval of government ministers, which delivers an excellent result for Julie Bishop of 56% approval and 22% disapproval, with Malcolm Turnbull close behind at 47% and 24%. Bottom of the table of seven by some margin is Joe Hockey, at 31% and 48%. Other questions register a conviction that a re-elected Coalition would introduce laws like WorkChoices (44% likely versus 26% unlikely), and a belief that not enough is being done to tackle climate change (53%, versus 24% for doing enough and 7% for doing too much).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,192 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. The Leaker??

    I’d say Morrison. He stands to gain the most and all the RWNJobbies that backed Abbott will eagerly fall in behind him.

  4. Anyone see that piece from the delightful Miranda Devine this morning urging Abbott to go for broke and calling a double dissolution before Canning. I wouldn’t rule it out. He seems punch drunk at the moment and may see it as his own come to Jesus moment.

  5. Oakeshott Country at #2028

    Yep, that was one of my jobs at Whyalla in the early 1960s for the better part of 3 years as I built up a nest egg for Uni in pre-Whitlam days.

    Wasn’t it a bastard of a job!
    But you tell that to the kids of today…

    http://www.phespirit.info/montypython/four_yorkshiremen.htm

    Actually on a serious note in some ways things were better then.
    The unemployment rate was bugger all, structural youth unemployment didn’t exist, and if you worked you could create a career path over time.
    Whereas today the road block signs are up before the kids set out on their path.

  7. Abbott in Parliament: “I will not be lectured by this man on Cabinet solidarity ..”

    Was I the only one who detected more than an echo, in structure, of Julia Gillard’s misogyny speech directed at him?

  8. Evening all.
    From an article on the signing of the AFL rights, Murdoch flew out from Sydney last night, I wonder who if any federal politicans he met.
    Abbott was in Yass this morning, but by then Murdoch had left the country.

  10. [1980
    CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, August 19, 2015 at 5:58 pm | PERMALINK
    ratsak

    Kathy goes down to the tune of $1.4mil

    And $995k in costs I think.
    ]

    Wasn’t Michael Lawler representing her pro boner?

  11. [2021
    citizen

    News on channels 7, 9 and 10 was similar tonight – a big serve to Abbott. He is losing the MSM in a big way.

    Even Ullmann has picked up the leaked briefing notes for Ministers]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-19/cabinet-leaks-continue-with-talking-points-email/6709514
    2022

    So now the gang will campaign against Abbott, sensing they can contribute to his destruction. That’s good, but we should not mistake this as campaigning “for Labor”. It’s campaigning to prevent Labor from winning the next election by attempting to ensure that Abbott is deposed as soon as possible.

    A Liberal PM has not been unseated since Gorton, and that was done for the same basic reasons – because they sensed Labor would take Government. Will the Liberals be able to repair the divisions that have been revealed? Will the divisions simply worsen as the right breaks into Abbott/Morrison cliques? Will the wheels just fall off completely and leave Abbott to lead a chaotic, divided, demoralised and ineffectual rabble to a momentous defeat?

    It sure looks like it at this juncture.

  12. [2057
    alias

    Abbott in Parliament: “I will not be lectured by this man on Cabinet solidarity ..”]

    lol

    He doesn’t have an original thought in that empty skull. The thing is, of course, Abbott should not be talking about this issue at all! It simply places him firmly inside the “chaotic government” storyline: “Like Rudd…like Gillard… like Abbott!” This is a disastrously bad place for Abbott to go. He is asking to be executed.

  15. briefly@2061

    Will the Liberals be able to repair the divisions that have been revealed? Will the divisions simply worsen as the right breaks into Abbott/Morrison cliques? Will the wheels just fall off completely and leave Abbott to lead a chaotic, divided, demoralised and ineffectual rabble to a momentous defeat?

    It sure looks like it at this juncture.

    Tune in tomorrow for the next exciting episode of “When a girl marries”

    For all those in love, and all those…. who…. remember…..

    I guess you had to be there, listening to radio serials back in the fifties and sixties…

  17. I’m not sure that the leaker is even a leadership contender. It is quite possible that some of Abbott’s cabinet members are so pissed off with his double-dealing incompetence that they are cutting him off at the knees because they can.

  18. Good evening all,

    After watching bits of QT today and the news tonight I was wondering if anyone else thinks labor is goading Abbott into a debate on IR and workers rights and conditions.

    Abbott and his merry band of idiots were hard at it today with their direct attacks on Bill Shorten and his “ripping off of workers “. Abbott went feral in QT today but I think Shorten and labor would be very happy with his focus on workers conditions.

    Shorten is ready to stick it to the Tories and start a fight on the very issues Abbott has stated are dead and buried ie workers conditions and I R policy.

    Shorten is goading Abbott and I think Abbott has lost all real awareness and focus as to what Shorten is doing and is just reacting in the only way he knows. Full on agro.

    Shorten and labor v Abbott and the coalition on I R and workers rights. Just what labor wants and Abbott appears too angry and feral to understand where labor is dragging him.

    I am sure labor and Bill Shorten will be more than happy to put their record up against Abbott and co.

    Many see the focus on Heydon as a simple attack on the RC in order to cloud any findings but I think Shorten and labor are playing a much wider game. Of course the RC is a focus but the broader issues of IR and workers conditions are part of the overall strategy now playing out and Abbott is getting dragged into a fight on issues he wants nothing to do with.

    Good move by Shorten and labor.

    My take on it all anyway.

    Cheers.

  19. [2065
    don]

    There is a palpable sense of expectation now – a sense that each day or so there will be another leak, another error, another depiction of disorder. Each chapter builds upon those that have already been published and the anticipation of decay becomes self-fulfilling.

  20. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    Yep. There must be at least one cabinet minister with zero leadership ambitions horrified by the path the Tony is taking the Liberal Party.

  22. lizzie and/or sceptic (or anyone who knows) – what was it that Bishop said that Plibersek, Burke and Dreyfus were laughing at?

  23. Even Ullmann has picked up the leaked briefing notes for Ministers

    But he finished with Libs doing character assignation of Bill saying there was more to come.

  26. Doyley – Agree with all that. There is an even bigger context. Anyone who watched Abbott’s performance today must have been asking themself the basic question: when is this guy going to stop attacking the opposition leader and start governing the country. If Abbott thinks he’s going to turn up at the next election and make the opposition leader the issue he’s totally nuts.

  27. [He seems punch drunk at the moment and may see it as his own come to Jesus moment.]

    I wish he would go to Jesus. Though I doubt if Jesus would have him.

  29. Doyley and briefly – I fully expect that there will be a union campaign against the Abbott Government in the lead-up to next election, conducted in much the same way that the unions campaigned against the Liberals at the last Victorian state election, a campaign which was enormously successful.

  30. 2070
    poroti

    Whoever is responsible is obviously determined to wreck Abbott. The Canning by-election is a heaven-sent opportunity. If the Liberals lose, Abbott will be in all kinds of trouble.

    The Cabinet leaks are a disaster. They disclose a Government with nothing to do – a government in name only.

  34. Doyley 2068

    Yes I think they are goading Abbott, and he goes a bit crazy at times. (at times!) He really does have some strange “memory lapses” and “blankouts” – very strange. I think we may be about to witness another Krakatoa-strength brain fade.

    Fess – I was wondering the same thing (who is leaking) – Morrison probably has the most to gain in the short term because if Abbott fell under a bus he might get the gig right now, whereas if they are really desperate with an election looming it would be Bishop or even Turnbull I think.

  36. Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 1m1 minute ago Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

    Has the thought occurred that the govt is doing nothing as Abbott clears deck for rush to polls after Canning?

    Yup, early election.

  38. Kevin @2076,

    Exactly.

    From my perspective at the moment labor and Shorten are leading Abbott around on a leash.

    Abbott just cannot help himself.

    Cheers.

  40. TBA has been missing. They must be short of lines. Will he come in here and start talking up Turnbull?

    Will TBA admit the truth? No-one inside the Liberal machine believes Abbott is a)capable of running the country; b)capable of winning anything, let alone the next election.

  41. [Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 1m1 minute ago Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

    Has the thought occurred that the govt is doing nothing as Abbott clears deck for rush to polls after Canning?

    Yup, early election.]

    It could easily be.

  43. How does the early election theory work?

    Why would Abbott do it now when he’s so far behind in the polls – further than he has been for many months?

    What does Abbott give as the pretext for doing this?

    I really want to believe this might be on. Nothing like an election to get the blood pumping – especially one Abbott is almost certain to lose. But there’s the rub: it just doesn’t seem plausible.

  44. On the Heydon/Newlinds clip, Newlinds obviously handled himself well (firm but low key) while Heydon obviously thought it disrespectful that Newlinds disagreed with him. Wow. Dyson showed various things:
    1. He’s rattled;
    2. He’s arrogant;
    3. He actually doesn’t have much experience at the coal face (he’s always been an appellate judge);
    3. A smart judge, no matter how annoyed he might be, would have been very kind to Newlinds. Being asked to disqualify yourself for this or that reason is part and parcel of being a judge. Why make it look like you’re arrogant or rattled.
    4. Ain’t no way Dyson’s gonna recuse himself on Friday. He’s pissed.

  45. [2091
    WeWantPaul

    Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 1m1 minute ago Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

    Has the thought occurred that the govt is doing nothing as Abbott clears deck for rush to polls after Canning?]

    lol

    This is just remotely possible. But it is more likely that the government is doing nothing because that is all Abbott knows. He’s never done a damn thing in his entire life. To expect him to run the country is asking too much of him. He enjoys saying “No!” and doing as little as possible. Even his sentences contain as little as possible. His “policies” are content-free. Doing nothing is his exact idea of good government.

  46. Interesting comment from Bongiorno. I would have thought Abbott would be batshit crazy to run to an election this year. What have they currently got going for them? There are no positives. Only potential negatives, like some dirt on Shorten (not saying there is any) or TURC. But the latter is looking less likely. My only guess is that Abbott would call an election to beat a challenge.

  47. Andrew Robb ‏@AndrewRobbMP 3m3 minutes ago

    Financial Services Council warns delaying China trade deal will jeopardise over $4 BILLION in economic gains & up to 10,000 new jobs.

    Who the hell is Financial Services Council ? Did Hockey outsource the goverment finance department ?

  49. I respect Paul Bongiorno a great deal but I find it hard to understand why Abbott would go to the polls after the Canning date with destiny which will be a lose lose for him no matter what.

    Like other posters I just think Abbott is doing nothing because he has nothing to put forward except politics and wedges and agro.

    Off to bed now so thanks for all the interesting posts and discussion.

    Have a great night all.

    Cheers.

  50. [His “policies” are content-free. Doing nothing is his exact idea of good government.]

    He has got a DD trigger for sure I thought I heard, that is all he really needed…

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