BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Ongoing government troubles prompt a third move in Labor’s favour in successive weeks on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as preselection jockeying gets started in the seats of Mackellar and Canning.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has, almost, moved half a point in Labor’s favour for the third week in a row, the exact two-party movement on this occasion being 0.4%. This was the result of two new polls this week, one from ReachTEL and the other the regular weekly Essential Research result. Newspoll was silent this week because, social media conspiracy theorising aside, it’s the practice of The Australian to have its polls coincide with the resumption of parliament, which means next week rather than this week. Whereas last week’s movement caused four seats to tip Labor’s way on the projection, this time there is but the one, that being in Victoria.

Nothing new this week on leadership ratings, but a fair bit to report on preselection:

• The future of the plum Liberal seat of Mackellar on Sydney’s northern beaches is a hot topic following Bronwyn Bishop’s resignation as Speaker. The West Australian reports that Bishop is “under internal pressure to quit parliament immediately”, but the 72-year-old Bishop says she’s set on another term. However, the crude fact that her pension will erode the longer she is on a back-bench salary makes this a doubtful proposition. It had long been thought that her successor might be her chief-of-staff, Damien Jones, who is a member of the party’s state executive, husband of state upper house MP Natasha Maclaren-Jones and, according to James Robertson of the Sydney Morning Herald, Bishop’s “local numbers man”. However, The Australian (paywalled) reports that Jones is “seen as ‘damaged goods’”, since it was he who booked Bishop’s infamous $5227 helicopter flight to Geelong – a view expressed by Tom Switzer, a former opinion page editor of The Australian and past preselection aspirant who is ruling himself out on this occasion. Others who have been speculatively named without ruling themselves out include Julian Leeser, a former Menzies Research Centre head currently working in government relations at the Australian Catholic University; Walter Villatora, chairman of the party’s Warringah federal electoral council and a campaigner for democratising preselection reforms favoured by the religious Right faction; John Ruddick, an ally of Villatora’s in the reform push; Greg Burton, a barrister; and Jim Longley, state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1996 and a minister in John Fahey’s government from 1992 to 1995, who is now chief executive of the ageing, disability and home care division of the NSW Department of Family and Community Services. Longley challenged Bishop for preselection ahead of the last election.

The West Australian reports that possible Liberal preselection candidates for the Canning by-election include “Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone, Murdoch University law lecturer Lorraine Finlay and party figure Nathan Gudgeon”. Another mentioned in the local press is Steve Marshall, a 57-year-old former earthworks businessman who says he will run as an independent if he doesn’t win, which doesn’t sound like a winning pitch to these ears. The West Australian also reports that Labor’s preselection candidates will include Matt Keogh, a commercial lawyer, president of the Law Society of WA, and member of the Right faction.

• Nationals veteran Bruce Scott has confirmed the long-held expectation that he will retire at the next election, making available his sprawling and safely conservative Queensland seat of Maranoa. Scott has been in the news of late due to his role as deputy Speaker – Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that he hoped to replace Bishop, but the Liberals will not have the job go to a National. According to Penelope Arthur of Queensland Country Life, potential preselection contenders in Maranoa include David Littleproud, a Toowoomba bank manager; Robert Loughnan, mayor of Maranoa; and Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor. Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that state Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg has ruled himself out, despite being “subject of pressure from some quarters of the Liberal National Party to run for a federal seat”. Labor’s preselected candidate is Dave Kerrigan, a rural health worker.

• The ABC reports that Steve Georganas will face opposition from “long-time Labor member” Delia Brennan in his bid for Labor preselection in the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, which he lost to Liberal candidate Matt Williams after nine years as member in 2013. However, The Australian reports that Georganas is “widely expected to win easily”. Mark Ward, a school teacher and candidate for the state by-election for Davenport in January, has won preselection to run against Liberal incumbent and Speakership aspirant Andrew Southcott in Boothby. Labor’s preselection process for Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt is ongoing.

• My paywalled Crikey contributions over the past fortnight or so concern Labor’s position on boat turnbacks and the contrast presented with the Labour Party in Britain, which appears poised to choose hard left ideologue Jeremy Corbyn as its new leader; the Tasmanian Greens preselection process that will shortly see former federal party leader Christine Milne succeeded by former state party leader Nick McKim; a Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry that appears to have been established due to Coalition concerns about emergency services union activists campaigning for Labor while wearing work-related apparel; the state of play in Western Australian state politics as the parties grapple with the implications of a just-announced redistribution; and, in yesterday’s edition, the coming prime ministership of Nick Xenophon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,276 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. [Which is why I am glad to not be a supporter for any one]

    I hear that a new party – the ‘Whinge Party’ – is being mooted.

    Their policy platform is simple – they propose no solutions to anything other than complaining about everything.

  2. Burke’s travel was legitimate and covered by the rules.

    If you have a problem with the rules, suggest how you think they should be changed, but don’t attack individuals who are accessing Their Rights At Work.

  3. BB

    My grandfather was a politician for twenty years and I do know that they work hard.

    I worked for three politicians so I know how it all works.

    Burke berated Bishop as he should have done for her behaviour which was appalling by any measure and rightfully so but there are times that you need to check on your own behaviour for any adversities.

  4. For what its worth, IMHO I don’t think the Coalition will change leaders before the next election. After their dismantling of RGR, I think it would guarantee electoral disaster for them (notwithstanding the fact that Abbott is doing a pretty fair job of this himself).

  5. sprocket

    [Donald Trump doing a good job of flaming out in record time]

    A suggestion somewhere above that Murdoch is supporting him is wild conspiracy fantasy.

  6. [ No politicians should get away with the “within the rules” garbage. ]

    That has got to be one of the most stupid comments i have seen here….apart from TBA’s.

    If its “within the rules” its an employment entitlement that person is owed as part of their conditions of employment. No ifs, buts or maybes. Simple, proper concept that the media would like everyone to forget at the moment. 🙁

    And frankly, i can see why it was included. Family and relationships are issues for anyone who has to spend long periods away from family, and where they normally live, or travel often.

    Now, idiots like Bishop have pushed way beyond the boundaries of “within the rules”, but that doesn’t mean that the “rules” dont need to be reviewed from time to time. fine.

    The pollies can trade off conditions that they properly have at the moment for higher pay in the future like other employees are expected to.

  7. Murdoch wants the Republicans to win, and that is inconsistent with supporting Trump. Trump’s antics might go down well with a large tranche of the Republican base but he can’t win the Presidency just on their votes. Murdoch will in time support whichever candidate looks most likely to beat Clinton. In the meantime, Donald Trump helps sell newspapers and boost Fox’s ratings.

  8. Yep, increase pollies pay and cut workplace rights. That would shut the whingers up and prevent any more Bronnycopters. Australians have become ugly petty whinging little nitpickers, without the ability to analyse a situation beyond their gut reaction or the shiver in their gonads. I blame to much toxic reality TV, introduced in about 2001,

  9. Fess

    Installed Windows 10 twice – once on laptop running 8.1 and once on a desktop running 7. Went like a charm both times and both computers now run faster than before.

  10. CTar1@1057

    Burke appears to have a better reason for the travel than Bronnie’ helicopter ride to a fund raiser.

    or this one from pyne –

    [ Christopher Pyne claimed $5000 expenses for Christmas family trip

    Education Minister Christopher Pyne and his family claimed more than $5000 in travel expenses for a family visit to Sydney for the week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve.

    Mr Pyne argues a private, apparently one-on-one meeting with Tony Abbott was justification for his family’s Christmas trip, as scrutiny of MPs’ expenses drags into its fourth week.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christopher-pyne-claimed-5000-expenses-for-christmas-family-trip-20150807-giu5k3.html#ixzz3i79bD3oI

  11. dave

    [Mr Pyne argues a private, apparently one-on-one meeting with Tony Abbott was justification for his family’s Christmas trip]

    Lunch at Kirribilli?

  12. fess

    The actual installation went fine, but had to deal with upgrades for some software. I’m still missing an ad block that works with W 10.

  13. If Pynes’ trip was within the rules, then it was in the rules. If the meeting with Abbott was Parly business, then the trip is justified.

    I say abolish the entitlement for family travel, and give all pollies an extra $5k a year. It is fairer to on pollies with no family.

  14. [No politicians should get away with the “within the rules” garbage. The public has a right to know how their taxes are spent.]
    What a stupid thing to say. Everyone is entitled to take what is allowed “within the rules”, whether it is politicians, taxpayers filling out their tax returns, businesses claiming deductions claiming business expenses, pensioners claiming pensions, disabled claiming disability benefits, workers claiming entitlements.

    What’s your alternative? What everyone thinks is ok? A form of populist form of mob rule.

    If you don’t like what has happened, look at the validity of the rules, not criticisw those who operate within the rules.

  15. Thanks ajm and lizzie. I’m tempted to install it but you never know with these things until it’s too late to back out!

  16. [ Has anyone installed Windows 10 yet, and if so what is your experience? ]

    Hi Fess. Yup, working well. Fast and snappy for me. A couple of issues i used to have on my PC to do with hotplugging SATA drives are resolved. 🙂

    The occasional “blue screen of death” i get if i reboot my smartphone while its plugged into the USB persist. 🙁

    There are a couple of setup issues with a digital TV i have plugged into the HDMI port on the PC which i will get to when i can be bothered. No biggie.

    Had no probs with drivers. I have a robust, simple PC ( Intel i5 4GB Ram ) that only uses on board graphics. The only driver issues i have are with smartphone stuff as i like to tinker and have just got a new phone after my old one took a dip in the loo. 🙁

    All that said, i did read up a few articles on what to disable during the install for privacy, and will be going through that stuff again in a week or so from within windows once its had a couple of updates.

    Most importantly i took a disk image and have a tried and tested recovery disk (ubcd 535) so i can go back to Win7 easily if i need too.

    I downloaded Win10 and put it on a USB stick via the tool Microsoft are distributing. I already had an activated and legal Win7 so when i did the upgrade it showed up as activated Win10 straight away.

  17. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1074

    If Pynes’ trip was within the rules, then it was in the rules. If the meeting with Abbott was Parly business, then the trip is justified.

    True.

    But if one had a suspicious mind, it could be said it was a ‘put up job’.

    If could be said pyne could have flown Adel-Syd-Adel had his talkies with abbott and been back in Adelaide to see his family the same day.

    Easy open to being worked around – abbott has various claims where legitimate claims were made to fit in with other stuff.

    That said its not unreasonable for it all to be reformed – whether it is reformed meaningfully is another thing.

    They all just want it to go away.

  18. dave

    [If could be said pyne could have flown Adel-Syd-Adel had his talkies with abbott and been back in Adelaide to see his family the same day.]

    The talk with Tones was so intense Pyne had to claim for two nights T/A.

  19. I think the Pollies’ TU is rock solid at the moment on work “entitlements”.

    What Joe Public wants is a higher standard of ethics from its politicians than it is prepared to pay for.

    There is rank hypocrisy in the electorate in that tax minimisation and, where possible, paying little or no tax, are seen as fair game tactics.

    This is not to excuse the politicians, but while a set of rules exist, one can hardly berate them for taking advantage of such rules to reduce costs to their pocket which arise from the job.

    For mine, it is quite simple. Pay them plenty but no perks on top of that.

    One example is the number of freebies pollies get.

    Good luck to them, but whether these are ethical (like the cop getting a freebie meal while on the beat) is one thing, and whether, for instance, the pollie should get the use of a tax-payer funded car to attend a freebie concert, for instance, is another matter.

    I sense this is all about to change for all sides of politics.

  20. [ The talk with Tones was so intense Pyne had to claim for two nights T/A. ]

    I don’t consider either of them ‘deep thinkers’.

    The IPA hands then their policies anyway all they need to work on is lies and bullshit, which just ‘flows’.

  21. [A suggestion somewhere above that Murdoch is supporting him is wild conspiracy fantasy.]

    Murdoch would never support Trump. Trump thinks he’s better than Murdoch (he think’s he’s god’s gift to god) and even more irrational and uncontrollable than Murdoch.

  22. [ I’m tempted to install it but you never know with these things until it’s too late to back out! ]

    Fess, if you are worried about it, put a bit of time into learning how to make, and then recover your computer from a disk image. If you do i’d recommend NOT using the windows built in tool as i have had friends who have found it unreliable.

    If you are unsure, seek a local geek to help out. You would probably be surprised how many there are. 🙂

  23. [ You’re obviously way more technologically advanced than me! ]

    Have had a lot of stuff ups, derision from daH missus, and hair pulling to get there though fess. 🙂

  24. The idea that Trump can just use his own money to buy the American Presidents job and have large numbers of Republicans support him in this shows where their society has got to.

  25. [ Ministers in Singapore are the highest paid politicians in the world, receiving a 60% salary raise in 2007 and as a result Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s pay jumped to S$3.1 million, five times the US$400,000 earned by President Barack Obama. ]

    [ The Singaporean politicians are definitely the highest paid politicians in the world, making it one of the best places to be a politician.

    Despite public outcry against such salary hike given the size of the country being governed, the government insisted, saying the salary hike would help in making sure that the efficiency and corruption-free status of Singapore’s “world-class” government lives on.

    The basic salaries of these politicians still appear very much overwhelming even without including the variable bonuses accrued to them.

    The Cabinet ministers of Singapore each take home US$850,000 as basic salary.

    The Members of parliament of Singapore pocket US$148,306 as basic salary.

    Undoubtedly, Singaporean politicians are among the world’s highest paid politicians, earning by a staggering margin. More importantly, nearly all MPs hold full-time jobs while majority of them are also directors of companies.]

    http://listabuzz.com/the-salaries-of-singaporean-politicians/

  26. I’m definitely in the “pay them more but scrap all the arguable perks” camp.

    There are a couple of questions about this method though – obviously the PM and FM and other ministers to a lesser extent have travel/accommodation obligations that we still need to pay for “on top”; the question is how to separate the official business from the stuff a regular MP would have to pay for themselves. If the various ministerial duties and associated funding were organized through the PS and publicly documented in real time that might be ok.

    I actually don’t think family members should ever be paid for by the taxpayer (beyond giving the MPs the generous pay to pay for it themselves) – including the PM’s partner. Screw the notion that the PM’s “other half” is part of the leadership package.

    The other question is what to do with loadings for large/remote electorates, but I imagine it wouldn’t be hard to get the remuneration tribunal to do a guestimate that wouldn’t be too unfair.

  27. [ CTar1

    Posted Saturday, August 8, 2015 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

    dave

    If could be said pyne could have flown Adel-Syd-Adel had his talkies with abbott and been back in Adelaide to see his family the same day.

    The talk with Tones was so intense Pyne had to claim for two nights T/A.

    ]

    …. it took twice as long to listen to Abbott’s characteristic “double-talk” …. and each version different, depending which side of his mouth it came out of ….

  28. [ I’m definitely in the “pay them more but scrap all the arguable perks” camp. ]

    I think many people are and quite reasonably so.

    However, the utter bollocks that is being run by the media at the moment, that persons accessing workplace entitlements within the rules are somehow evil rorters really really annoys me.

    Its a line clearly being run as a distraction for certain persons who have at the very least been operating out on the ragged edge of “within the rules” and well beyond the currently fashionable “community expectations” standard.

  29. There’s an amazing lot of sanctimoniousness going on here about politician’s entitlements.

    First, it is abhorrent to spend public money to further an affair. But the evidence for that happening is largely in the minds of salacious, prurient gossip makers. It may be true, but I need damned more than the fact that a key staff member who travels with the Minister becomes the Minister’s partner more than three years later, and long after they ceased to work together.

    Secondly, Bronnhilde’s behaviour is way beyond what anyone else appears to have done -regardless of relative cost to the taxpayer. She has taken the most expensive option simply because it was and because she was not the one paying. The others, including Pyne and Burke, have used entitlements that were specifically granted – and appear to have used those entitlements as intended, even if there are serious questions about good judgement in doing so. It is altogether a different standard of behaviour compared to Bronnhilde.

    Thirdly, the arguments in favour of spouses and children travelling with their MP and Ministerial partners are quite legitimate. They do often spend long period separated and the rate of marriage breakdown is well known to be very high.

    But fourthly, MPs and Ministers are very, very well remunerated compared to the general public. If it is appropriate they should pay for it themselves. When your income is near $200k a year, pulling $8,000 or $10,000 out of your own pocket to bring along a spouse and or children to enjoy a bit of your company at Uluru or wherever is hardly onerous when so many ordinary people earning $60k or $70k have to do so no questions asked.

    Abbott is partly right in that the benefits need a close hard examination. He might not think they are generous, but they damned well are. Including the nice little earner of being paid TA on the basis of staying in an upmarket hotel while in Canberra or wherever and pocketing the difference while staying in a private house for minimal or no rent.

    But to go back to the first two points. There is no place for smear in Australian politics – and that includes the Abbott-Credlin crap. I don’t care if it’s true or not. There is simply no place for it unless it is proved (and I emphasise the word ‘proved’) to be factual and relevant. Assumptions based on political prejudice by picking up and running with the smears against Tony Burke by the Murdoch gutter press do no credit to those on this site who are doing it.

    And Bronnhilde’s escapades were simply so far off the radar that they were ludicrous. Effectively, she breached the trust in good judgement provided by the looseness of the language in which the tribunal entitlements were expressed to take every possible advantage. No reasonable person would have done it. While plenty of reasonable people would have flown their families business in accordance with generous entitlements, especially if their colleagues were doing the same.

  30. imacca

    [Its a line clearly being run as a distraction for certain persons who have at the very least been operating out on the ragged edge of “within the rules” and well beyond the currently fashionable “community expectations” standard.]

    That was the Slippers problem. Always pushing the envelope.

  31. My (irrelevant) view on Windows 10 (which I haven’t tried yet) –

    I’m torn about this. I’ve used Windows machines for many years now, and I am most comfortable with them (my general use computer has been Win7 now for the last 5 years and I’ve been quite happy with it), although I have had a long term apathetic view of Microsoft. They used to be “teh big evil” back in the day as far as I was concerned, but that had been dying down over the last few years as Google and Apple and Facebook rose up the evil ranks.

    What I’ve seen on the Windows 10 privacy/ads stuff puts them right back up there in my estimation. Many trends that I have been unhappy with are taken to their logical conclusions. Sure, you can poke around with settings and fiddle around with firewalls and the like to neuter what MS wants to do, but fundamentally if they are explicitly trying to forcibly shepherd the Windows-using community into being their compliant marketing information source then … I really think I want out.

    I don’t know if I can do it. I certainly can’t go to Apple (devil and the deep blue sea that way), so I’m thinking I’ll keep using my aging Win7 computer until I need to replace it and then go with a fully Linux based general use computer.

    I do a lot of game playing, and that will be problematic. I may buy a cheapy Windows 10 box to just play Windows-only games on, although that idea annoys me because I generally like to swap between gaming and browsing and coding, and I certainly don’t want 2 machines running all the time. I guess I could transition to primarily using a Linux install on a virtual machine living on the Windows box – the other way around doesn’t really work well for game playing in my experience.

    As I said I’m torn. I think the Windows 10 issues have definitely pushed me to want to ditch Windows now, but don’t quite see how to do it without pain at the moment.

  32. [ I think I’ll give it a go. If others can install it without dramas then I should be able to. ]

    Be Brave Fess! Its only a silicon eedjit getting a personality transplant after all. 🙂

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