Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan records Labor bouncing back on two-party preferred after a relatively weak showing a fortnight ago, although the Greens have taken a greater share of the fall in the Coalition primary vote.

The latest fortnightly Morgan poll, encompassing 3316 respondents surveyed by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, records a 2.5% drop in primary vote support for the Coalition compared with the previous fortnight’s result, making room for Labor and the Greens to respectively gain 1% and 1.5%. That leaves the primary votes at 39% for the Coalition, 35.5% for Labor and 15% for the Greens, the latter being its highest point in five years. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is now at 54-46 on the headline respondent-allocated figure and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the 2013 election result, both of which compare with 51-49 a fortnight ago.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor is also up a point on the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, putting its two-party lead at 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 38% and 11%. Further questions find only 19% believing Bronwyn Bishop should remain as Speaker, although 25% favour the relatively mild option of her standing down pending an investigation, while 19% want her gone from the chair and 24% from parliament altogether. Further results find overwhelming support for penalty rates (81% support, 13% oppose), and deep skepticism about arguments for cutting them (61% think it more likely that business will make bigger profits, 20% that it will employ more workers). Fifty-one per cent believe their electricity bill has increased in the past 12 months versus 9% who think it’s decreased, with 41% thinking the carbon tax had a small impact, 21% a big impact, and 20% no impact.

On tax reform, respondents like the sound of hitting multinational companies (79% support, 9% oppose) and high income earners (63% versus 24% on income tax, 59% versus 25% on super concessions), but opposed to increasing the GST (33% versus 55% on removal of concessions, 24% versus 65% on increasing the rate), and divided on removing negative gearing (37% versus 33%) and replacing stamp duty with land tax (26% versus 32%). However, 38% support increasing the GST in combination with income tax reductions, with 42% opposed. Given a choice between a higher GST or a higher Medicare levy, support is evenly divided at 35% versus 33%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,553 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 32
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  1. I didn’t see The Drum, but Greg Sheridan is being quoted as saying Tony Abbott is “deeply intellectual”.

    I’d like to see some proof. If he is, I’d be in danger of respecting him. 🙁

  3. [Greg Sheridan is being quoted as saying Tony Abbott is “deeply intellectual”.]

    Love is blind.

    Sheridan’s bromance is deaf, dumb, blind and stupid.

  6. 54

    In at least one of the photos I saw the PM`s national security advisor. I saw his daughter in another and she was specifically mentioned.

  7. Oh yes, Labor MPs and Staff, please don’t employ families, you will only make Abbott ‘look smarter’ after the report of a MPs Son posting ISIS mock photos.

  8. Bill Shorten needs to do better than say “this isn’t a tax”, show some figures and Labor’s cost on last parliament.

    Abbott is using the NBN blowout cost claim to defeat the ETS.

  11. [Happy to see a trickle effect away from this hopeless Govt.

    May it continue….]
    Yes Rex, a trickle. 2.5 – 3% TPP to Labor; into avalanche territory. Not setting yourself up for another whine over the next poll if Labor doesn’t hit 60%, are you?

  14. [Labor has described Prime Minister Tony Abbott as “the most unscientific” leader in Australia’s recent history after he claimed the party’s ambitious renewable energy goal would cost consumers $60 billion.

    Mr Abbott said on Monday Labor’s pledge to source half the nation’s power from renewable sources by 2030 – a position backed by the party’s national conference at the weekend – was “truly bizarre” and a “massive hit on consumers and jobs”.

    “{It} will mean a massive bill, perhaps $60 billion or more, that will have to be carried by the consumers of Australia,” he said.

    Asked later by Fairfax Media where Mr Abbott sourced that figure, a spokesman pointed to a report in The Australian last week.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/renewable-energy-labor-attacks-unscientific-tony-abbott-over-60b-bill-claim-20150727-gilbfo.html#ixzz3h524Jwcs%5D

  16. As a WCE supporter I would like to apologise to anyone offended by the rednecks who booed Goodes on the weekend.

    I still enjoyed the win, but their shabby and plainly racist actions took the edge off it.

  17. It’s Time #61

    We’re talking about a deplorable, dysfunctional, destructive, divisive, anti-soacial Govt.

    The Opposition should be 60/40 in front of this mob.

  18. TPOF@41

    Peg @ 35

    Still nonsense. Ignores the advent of Mark Latham, the white-anting of Julia Gillard during the 2010 election campaign, the fact that there was no way Labor was going to win 2013, but just how badly it was going to lose. And it ignores the fact that Rudd went into the 2007 election with a boat turn back policy and only abandoned it after a couple of disasters – a deliberate deadly boat sabotage and the Oceanic Viking situation.

    As I said earlier today, stopping the boats does win votes, but not stopping those boats will lose votes by the bucketful.

    If this is the case, then I’m disappointed with the way our society have become. Or is the focus on marginal seats, especially that in Western Sydney?

    This would be equally perplexing to me, considering the high number of immigrants and refugees in those parts. Is this from the poor management of backlash from the poor integration of such populations in those areas?

  19. [lizzie
    Posted Monday, July 27, 2015 at 6:51 pm | PERMALINK
    AA

    Not everyone luurves the snow. I wouldn’t go even if the trip was free. Brrrrr!}

    It’s not just the snow, it’s the apres ski!

  20. ratsak

    It was love at first sight and they share a mutual worship of (from article) “…Santamaria had come in for the meeting himself. We had never met him properly before and he was to become a good friend of both Tony’s and mine.”

    [
    Tony Abbott, Greg Sheridan and the 1977 AUS conference: a political baptism of fire .

    It was January 1977 and Tony Abbott and I were driving to Melbourne.

    Tony had kindly picked me up in his purple eight-­cylinder Leyland P76 and at first I was impressed by what seemed a huge quantity of music cassettes………..Tony’s favourite, at least on that trip, was Dreams of the Everyday ­Housewife. It combined perfectly the sentimental and the heroic, appealing to two deep currents in his personality.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/weekend-australian-magazine/tony-abbott-greg-sheridan-and-the-1977-aus-conference-a-political-baptism-of-fire/story-e6frg8h6-1227455780155

  21. [Unsurprisingly Harvey deliberately cheating to get a 50 meters is applauded by his sook coach and norths fans.]

    Not just us. Leigh Matthews iirc. He called it smart or clever play.

    Although he taught the Scott brothers how to coach. So maybe he would say that. One thing tho – during their playing careers neither him nor the Scotts were sooks or soft. Brisbane were a hard team. So were Hawthorn in the 80s.

    There is a genuine coaching lineage from John Kennedy and Alan Jeans (and Parkin) through Matthews to the Scott brothers and already one Scott has won a flag. The other is only a matter of time. There are heaps of those. North melbourne from the 90s have produced the last 3 premiership coaches and if the Eagles win this year it’ll be the last 4. (They won’t but if they do its because of NM.)

    [If you side does it, it is smart play and when the other side do it it is bad umpiring and cheating.]

    No its just bad umpiring. Every player does it at some point. People “cheat” in Australian “Rules” all the time.

    If you’re in the midfield and your opponent gets in front of you and you don’t want them doing that you nudge them, or you hold them, by grabbing their jumper or entwining your arms or something. If you’re in front and they’re doing it you hit them or elbow them to make them let go. Obvious (ie dirty) players do it in the head, clean players do it in the arm or body and no one notices The same thing happens on the forward and back lines between big or small forwards. None of that is not “cheating”, its all technically illegal contact but if you can’t maintain your own physical space and control your opponent’s you’ll lose the contests.

    When I played (not at senior afl level obviously) I was considered a clean fair player by everyone i played with, against and by the umpires. But I “cheated” all the time. if you can’t catch/tackle someone and they’re having a shot on goal push them in the back if necessary. If the umpire sees you bad luck, if you don’t apply the pressure they get an easy shot on goal anyway. Its not cheating, its how the game is played. If you don’t do that you’re not putting proper physical pressure on your opponent.

    Sometimes an opposition player does something dirty to your teammate and no one else sees it except you. Then you have to cheat because you can’t let that player get away with it.

    Some people boo Goodes cos he is too good. Some boo him cos he maintains a hard physical presence. Some boo him because they are racists. Some do it cos their fellow supporters are and they’re trying to distract him with the noise and intensity of it. All of them are tarred by racism at the moment cos racists amplify the bad blood he gets.

  22. Rex Douglas@67

    It’s Time #61

    We’re talking about a deplorable, dysfunctional, destructive, divisive, anti-soacial Govt.

    The Opposition should be 60/40 in front of this mob.

    Why only 60/40?

    How about 70/30?

    Or 90/10?

  23. Greg Sheridan is being quoted as saying Tony Abbott is “deeply intellectual”.

    Greg should look up,the difference between an intellectual & an ideologue

  25. ratsak

    For a real barf check out this collection of quotes from Sheridan , a sample. Mein gott !!

    [Abbott was my best friend … We talked over everything. The meaning of life (12 September 2012) Abbott and I were lying on the sand at a surf beach some distance out of Melbourne. (17 August 2013)…….Reagan was calm, measured, engaging and presidential – much like Abbott last night. (12 August 2013) …Abbott is brave as a lion]
    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2013/december/1385816400/greg-sheridan/how-i-learnt-love-tony-abbott

  26. Raaraa

    Why not even consider the possibility that people are genuine when they say they want deaths at sea to stop?

  27. bemused #72

    Wouldn’t that be marvellous…

    Sadly there are plenty of drongo’s out there as the booing of Adam Goodes shows.

  28. sceptic

    You don’t understand how deep the intellectuality is. You have to dig down a long, long way to find it.

  30. [bemused
    Posted Monday, July 27, 2015 at 6:59 pm | PERMALINK
    Rex Douglas@67
    It’s Time #61
    We’re talking about a deplorable, dysfunctional, destructive, divisive, anti-soacial Govt.

    The Opposition should be 60/40 in front of this mob.

    Why only 60/40?

    How about 70/30?

    Or 90/10?]

    I’m with you Bemused. I can’t understand why ANYONE would vote for them. Let’s make it 100% to nothing.

    Bloody Shorten. The best he has been able to manage is a piddling 5% swing on 2pp and he’s already had the job for a year and a half. How much bloody time does he need for god sake.

    Where do we get these losers from?

  31. [You don’t understand how deep the intellectuality is. You have to dig down a long, long way to find it.]

    There’s a slim chance it might bubble up from the upper mantle to the bottom of the Marianas Trench

  33. Darn #80

    I’d put the current lead to the Opposition down to the poor performance of the Govt rather than Shortens political brilliance.

  34. Look Tony Abbott is so bad if Bill Shorten isn’t 150% ahead in the polls by the time I finish dinner he should resign in shame.

  36. Darn,

    Don’t play Rex’s silly game.

    If Labor scored 100%TPP he’d only up the ante to 120%.

    But at least Labor has the traditions and experience to get the dead to vote.

  37. [Apparently the result of teatowelgate (the shock horror revelation that EMILY’s List had put Gillard’s misogyny speech on a teatowel) resulted in the teatowels selling out at Conference and orders for 1500 online.]

    There’s a misogyny speech tea towel? Where can I order one online?

  38. [Mark Riley @Riley7News
    EXCLUSIVE: Tony Abbott sounds out senior colleagues on option of a plebiscite on same sex marriage after the next election. #7News]

    Do we take this with a grain of salt?

  39. z,

    A Julia Gillard Misogyny Tea Towell in every home is what I say..

    Every young man doing the dishes at home will be indoctrinated if that were to happen.

  40. Victoria @ 38: Ron Boswell on q&a, presumably as the conservative rep. I love the ABC sense of humour. I saw him during a Senate committee hearing years ago, literally drooling on his blotter. Should be the best scene since the authorities required the Union Jack to be carried in front of the St Patrick’s Day march in Melbourne during WWI, and the organisers used the most disreputable dero they could find in the city to do the honours.

  41. Fess

    [Mark Riley @Riley7News
    EXCLUSIVE: Tony Abbott sounds out senior colleagues on option of a plebiscite on same sex marriage after the next election. #7News

    Do we take this with a grain of salt?]

    Hell yes

  42. confessions #88

    It confirms that Abbott thinks there’s serious votes attached to the issue.

    It’s a very divisive issue for the LNP and potentially a fatal one.

  44. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 3m3 minutes ago

    The Chair of the PC explains here how the TPP could still be subjected to a rigorous analysis of its benefits & costs http://bit.ly/1DIz6OS

    Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 2m2 minutes ago

    The question is – what are @AndrewRobbMP & DFAT so terrified of seeing revealed that they refuse to let the PC analyse their secret deal?

    And Labor should be pushing for this.

  45. [ You don’t understand how deep the intellectuality is. You have to dig down a long, long way to find it.

    There’s a slim chance it might bubble up from the upper mantle to the bottom of the Marianas Trench]
    Just think of it as some carboniferous ooze seeping to the surface from some deeply imbedded, decayed and fossilised detritus from the deep past and polluting the modern world.

  49. Labor should attack this figure, like Coalition Party attacked Labor on back-of-an-envelope figure for NBN FTTP:

    David Crowe ‏@CroweDM 3h3 hours ago

    ACIL Allen’s Owen Kelp just told Sky the $60bn cost estimate for Labor’s renewable target is a “simplistic, back-of-the-envelope” figure.

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