Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Morgan poll, encompassing 3316 respondents surveyed by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, records a 2.5% drop in primary vote support for the Coalition compared with the previous fortnight’s result, making room for Labor and the Greens to respectively gain 1% and 1.5%. That leaves the primary votes at 39% for the Coalition, 35.5% for Labor and 15% for the Greens, the latter being its highest point in five years. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is now at 54-46 on the headline respondent-allocated figure and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the 2013 election result, both of which compare with 51-49 a fortnight ago.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor is also up a point on the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, putting its two-party lead at 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 38% and 11%. Further questions find only 19% believing Bronwyn Bishop should remain as Speaker, although 25% favour the relatively mild option of her standing down pending an investigation, while 19% want her gone from the chair and 24% from parliament altogether. Further results find overwhelming support for penalty rates (81% support, 13% oppose), and deep skepticism about arguments for cutting them (61% think it more likely that business will make bigger profits, 20% that it will employ more workers). Fifty-one per cent believe their electricity bill has increased in the past 12 months versus 9% who think it’s decreased, with 41% thinking the carbon tax had a small impact, 21% a big impact, and 20% no impact.

On tax reform, respondents like the sound of hitting multinational companies (79% support, 9% oppose) and high income earners (63% versus 24% on income tax, 59% versus 25% on super concessions), but opposed to increasing the GST (33% versus 55% on removal of concessions, 24% versus 65% on increasing the rate), and divided on removing negative gearing (37% versus 33%) and replacing stamp duty with land tax (26% versus 32%). However, 38% support increasing the GST in combination with income tax reductions, with 42% opposed. Given a choice between a higher GST or a higher Medicare levy, support is evenly divided at 35% versus 33%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe