The latest fortnightly Morgan poll, encompassing 3316 respondents surveyed by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, records a 2.5% drop in primary vote support for the Coalition compared with the previous fortnight’s result, making room for Labor and the Greens to respectively gain 1% and 1.5%. That leaves the primary votes at 39% for the Coalition, 35.5% for Labor and 15% for the Greens, the latter being its highest point in five years. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is now at 54-46 on the headline respondent-allocated figure and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the 2013 election result, both of which compare with 51-49 a fortnight ago.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor is also up a point on the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, putting its two-party lead at 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 38% and 11%. Further questions find only 19% believing Bronwyn Bishop should remain as Speaker, although 25% favour the relatively mild option of her standing down pending an investigation, while 19% want her gone from the chair and 24% from parliament altogether. Further results find overwhelming support for penalty rates (81% support, 13% oppose), and deep skepticism about arguments for cutting them (61% think it more likely that business will make bigger profits, 20% that it will employ more workers). Fifty-one per cent believe their electricity bill has increased in the past 12 months versus 9% who think it’s decreased, with 41% thinking the carbon tax had a small impact, 21% a big impact, and 20% no impact.
On tax reform, respondents like the sound of hitting multinational companies (79% support, 9% oppose) and high income earners (63% versus 24% on income tax, 59% versus 25% on super concessions), but opposed to increasing the GST (33% versus 55% on removal of concessions, 24% versus 65% on increasing the rate), and divided on removing negative gearing (37% versus 33%) and replacing stamp duty with land tax (26% versus 32%). However, 38% support increasing the GST in combination with income tax reductions, with 42% opposed. Given a choice between a higher GST or a higher Medicare levy, support is evenly divided at 35% versus 33%.