Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan records Labor bouncing back on two-party preferred after a relatively weak showing a fortnight ago, although the Greens have taken a greater share of the fall in the Coalition primary vote.

The latest fortnightly Morgan poll, encompassing 3316 respondents surveyed by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, records a 2.5% drop in primary vote support for the Coalition compared with the previous fortnight’s result, making room for Labor and the Greens to respectively gain 1% and 1.5%. That leaves the primary votes at 39% for the Coalition, 35.5% for Labor and 15% for the Greens, the latter being its highest point in five years. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is now at 54-46 on the headline respondent-allocated figure and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the 2013 election result, both of which compare with 51-49 a fortnight ago.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor is also up a point on the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, putting its two-party lead at 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 38% and 11%. Further questions find only 19% believing Bronwyn Bishop should remain as Speaker, although 25% favour the relatively mild option of her standing down pending an investigation, while 19% want her gone from the chair and 24% from parliament altogether. Further results find overwhelming support for penalty rates (81% support, 13% oppose), and deep skepticism about arguments for cutting them (61% think it more likely that business will make bigger profits, 20% that it will employ more workers). Fifty-one per cent believe their electricity bill has increased in the past 12 months versus 9% who think it’s decreased, with 41% thinking the carbon tax had a small impact, 21% a big impact, and 20% no impact.

On tax reform, respondents like the sound of hitting multinational companies (79% support, 9% oppose) and high income earners (63% versus 24% on income tax, 59% versus 25% on super concessions), but opposed to increasing the GST (33% versus 55% on removal of concessions, 24% versus 65% on increasing the rate), and divided on removing negative gearing (37% versus 33%) and replacing stamp duty with land tax (26% versus 32%). However, 38% support increasing the GST in combination with income tax reductions, with 42% opposed. Given a choice between a higher GST or a higher Medicare levy, support is evenly divided at 35% versus 33%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,553 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 31 of 32
1 … 30 31 32

  1. [Margo Kingston
    Margo Kingston – Verified account ‏@margokingston1

    Bronwyn must have something on Tony. Something big enough to male him risk self-destruction to save her. #choppergate #libspill
    5:41 AM – 29 Jul 2015]

  2. Its interesting to see Murdoch’s rags going hard at Bronny.

    My theory: she doesn’t fit their preferred “Howard battler” narrative. Which is fine, until she gets noticed. She’s more like some recrudescent old elitist stereotype that doesn’t fit their “real Strayans vote LNP since Keating” schtick in the least.

    SHe’s the sort of Lib that saw Keating pronounce Labor was born to rule over the Tories. And when he said it then, with a hapless Downer shaking in his boots across the aisle, it was almost believable.

    Howard managed to convince the public him and his swindler spiv mates were true blue, and Labor the elitists.

    Bronny’s like the ghost of elitisms past. News Corp cant bear the reminder.

  4. [Bronwyn must have something on Tony. Something big enough to male him risk self-destruction to save her. #choppergate #libspill]

    Nah, she must have something on Credlin. Tones is just to dumb and aggro to realise withdrawal is sometimes strategic. Credlin should have overruled Tones and cut her loose by now but hasnt. Some internal shit?

  10. Sceptic

    BBishop has done an exclusive interview for the Herald Sun. Guess we shall have to see what the fall out from that will be

  11. Tom TFAB
    [Maybe Bishop has evidence that Tony is still a British Citizen? If indeed that is the case?]

    Now that would be delicious.

  12. tom TFAB

    If, say for example, there was a clerical error and the envelope got chewed up by the shredder instead of going in the post bag to the Old Dart, and now it is all too late…. and hence Chopper has Tones’ nuts in a vice….

    Ah, I must stop daydreaming!

  13. tom TFAB

    If, say for example, there was a clerical error and the envelope got chewed up by the shredder instead of going in the post bag to the Old Dart, and now it is all too late…. and hence Chopper has Tones’ nuts in a vice….

    Ah, I must stop daydreaming!

  14. [It’s great fun (well, the Canberra version of fun) trying to work out why certain stories explode into god almighty messes.

    Bronwyn Bishop’s helicopter debacle is one such story. When the story first blew up (as helicopters are wont to do), Bishop realised the danger almost immediately and paid back the taxpayer money she’d foolishly used for her little joyride.]

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-monthly-today/sean-kelly/2015/29/2015/1438150138/beginning-bronwyn-bishop-s-end

  16. [A Same-Sex Marriage Plebiscite Is A Terrible Idea]

    There was no plebiscite when howard changed the definition why should there be a plebiscite to change it again?

    The tories insist on a constitutional change to change a definition that they have changed by an act of parliament. all that is required is another act to rescind or change the same said act.

  19. Perhaps we ordinary take MPs Payroll (including Bishop) and go around the world and Australia with it, then they can live with the money we 99% of the country get.

  20. I admit it is unlikely that Bishop has evidence of Abbott not renouncing his British Citizenship. If Abbott has not renounced it, unless Bishop has a copy of documentation where he uses British Citizenship during his parliamentary career (the later the more useful), then it is all about proving absence of renunciation (hard unless you take Abbott to Court).

  21. Harvey Norman has just run an advert for computers which includes the line ‘upgrade to Windows 10 for free’.

  22. [Another poll blowout for Tony & BB will be gone, should happen well before the 10th & parliaments return]

    What happens or doesn’t happen is distracting from how the abbott govt has done or hasn’t done.

    health – a shit mess, out of control, people dying in ambulance queues, bulk billing done the tube, the whole system stuffed

    foreign affairs – Indonesia stuffed, relationship gone, trade gone, export trade gone, the FTA’s a sell out, jobs gone, the $50 mill bill on cigs, has there been a worse foreign minister so gumby since hayden? ( look at me in my monogrammed qantas jim jams 🙂 )

    hockeynomics that is destroying business and consumer confidence

    debt up
    deficit up
    unemployment up
    growth down

    education- completely stuffed, white shoe brigade types rorting the system on govt handouts whilst research suffers

    welcome to abbotts australia brought to you by rudd.

  23. It seems that News Corp is preying on Bishop, doubtless with the intention of also snaring Abbott. Rupert has decided it’s time for a change.

  24. [It seems that News Corp is preying on Bishop, doubtless with the intention of also snaring Abbott. Rupert has decided it’s time for a change.]

    Always wondered which of those two would turn on the other first.

  25. [Rupert has decided it’s time for a change.]

    We will know Rupe reckons its time for a change when his flunkeys start praising the next anointed one.
    It was Bishop the younger for a while but that has gone dead.
    There was a brief stint of ‘All hail Malcolm” that didn’t last long.

    So both prime alternatives seem to be fizzers in Rupe’s eyes.

    I think we will have to wait for Rupert to tell us, and the Libs, who the next leader will be.

  26. Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, July 29, 2015 at 8:03 pm | PERMALINK
    Bishops uni career was dismal. She’s certainly not the sharpest tool in the shed according to wiki.

    Bishop failed a total of 11 subjects over six years. In her first year in 1960, she failed all four core subjects. In 1964, she failed four subjects again, and repeated them in 1965, in which she failed three again.

    ——–stunning – i would like to set academic records for all cabinet and opposition front bench (suspect latter outmatch former) – happen to believe in thing called education – it prized for workplace entry we should expect high education in politician – to this this dullard is occupying speaker position – she couldn;t read legislation or handle complexity in decision making … then there was pyne and abbott etc

  27. Is Rupy still in control of News Corp? He is not a young guy and and has taken a few hits – NoW scandal, inquiry, Wendy and Tony and has now passed over control to the boys.

  29. [
    Rob Harris retweeted
    damon johnston
    4h4 hours ago
    damon johnston ‏@damonheraldsun
    #choppergate BRONWYN hits back at JULIE BISHOP: She recently “rang me and said I had her full support” exclusive in tomorrows @theheraldsun]

    I thought Harris was banged up in a UK gaol for sex offences.

    I think I’ll take his tweets with a grain of cyanide.

    Sex abuse is never ok, rot in gaol Mr Harris!

  30. Can someone with more computer skills than I please put a segment of Bronnie, being led reluctantly to the speakers chair by Pyne and Abbott, on U Tube?

    Only have it played in reverse ….

  32. Darren

    [I thought Harris was banged up in a UK gaol for sex offences.]

    Rolf Harris is banged up in UK gaol. Not even sure who Rob Harris is.

  34. DL

    Bolt reported that Bronnie had told him JB rang her pledging full support. Why Bronnie would ring Bolt is beyond me as he’s been leading the charge to have her sacked. He’s now saying JB turning on Bronnie is a sign she wants to differentiate herself from Abbott due to leadership aspirations. If Bronnie really said that, it’s leadershit all over again.

  36. [
    Rob Harris retweeted
    damon johnston
    4h4 hours ago
    damon johnston ‏@damonheraldsun
    #choppergate BRONWYN hits back at JULIE BISHOP: She recently “rang me and said I had her full support” exclusive in tomorrows @theheraldsun]

    Well if Rob is not Rolf, who the f*ck is he and why do we give a flying sh*t what he is tweeting?!

  40. [
    I do not think Rolf Harris has access to the Internet.]

    I would certainly hope not! Hence my shock at his tweeting.

    But nothing would stop guytaur dumping his tweets here if indeed he is tweeting!

  42. [
    Perhaps the information contained in the tweet was thought of interest.]

    William

    I hope you are not implying that the Sun Herald is interesting!

Comments Page 31 of 32
1 … 30 31 32

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *