Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan records Labor bouncing back on two-party preferred after a relatively weak showing a fortnight ago, although the Greens have taken a greater share of the fall in the Coalition primary vote.

The latest fortnightly Morgan poll, encompassing 3316 respondents surveyed by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, records a 2.5% drop in primary vote support for the Coalition compared with the previous fortnight’s result, making room for Labor and the Greens to respectively gain 1% and 1.5%. That leaves the primary votes at 39% for the Coalition, 35.5% for Labor and 15% for the Greens, the latter being its highest point in five years. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is now at 54-46 on the headline respondent-allocated figure and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the 2013 election result, both of which compare with 51-49 a fortnight ago.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor is also up a point on the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, putting its two-party lead at 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 38% and 11%. Further questions find only 19% believing Bronwyn Bishop should remain as Speaker, although 25% favour the relatively mild option of her standing down pending an investigation, while 19% want her gone from the chair and 24% from parliament altogether. Further results find overwhelming support for penalty rates (81% support, 13% oppose), and deep skepticism about arguments for cutting them (61% think it more likely that business will make bigger profits, 20% that it will employ more workers). Fifty-one per cent believe their electricity bill has increased in the past 12 months versus 9% who think it’s decreased, with 41% thinking the carbon tax had a small impact, 21% a big impact, and 20% no impact.

On tax reform, respondents like the sound of hitting multinational companies (79% support, 9% oppose) and high income earners (63% versus 24% on income tax, 59% versus 25% on super concessions), but opposed to increasing the GST (33% versus 55% on removal of concessions, 24% versus 65% on increasing the rate), and divided on removing negative gearing (37% versus 33%) and replacing stamp duty with land tax (26% versus 32%). However, 38% support increasing the GST in combination with income tax reductions, with 42% opposed. Given a choice between a higher GST or a higher Medicare levy, support is evenly divided at 35% versus 33%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,553 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Gusface reporting on Twitter that Liberal internal polling also showing 46/54.

    Makes Malcolm’s intervention on ETS definition today more pertinent. Expect to see ScoMo out blowing his own trumpet shortly.

    And we always need a stalking horse, little did we know it would be Madame Chopper.

  2. The tories out talking about the Opposition again, instead of getting on with Governing.

    Turnbull undercutting abbott’s argument on ‘electricity tax’.

    Bishop still under the spotlight on ‘entitlements’.

    Election looming.

    Tories clearly not happy.

  3. Big turn around so soon in Morgan from the last poll. Nice and fingers crossed it holds up for awhile.

    Jules – Thanks for your comment re Goodsey. A bit of booing has always been fun in the course of the play but the continual noise against Goodsey is not normal footy fun. It’s much darker than that.

  4. [4

    The tories out talking about the Opposition again, instead of getting on with Governing.

    Turnbull undercutting abbott’s argument on ‘electricity tax’.]

    Abbott is claiming the higher RET will add zillions to power bills. Will anyone believe him? Highly doubtful.

  5. What will definitely add dollars to an electricity bill is a 50% increase in the GST. But, hey, it’s not an ETS, is it?

  6. Oh my happy aunt. The bloke who gave Abbott the $60bill figure for Labor’s renewables policy was, according to him on Sky, ‘a pretty simplistic figure, on the back of the envelope”.

    With that wonderful modelling Abbott is running amok on Labor’s big new electricity tax.

  7. Sarah Henderson was on 774 (with Jon Faine) this morning, and Josh Frydenburg (on Ralph Epstein’s Drive) this afternoon.

    Abbott seems to have hit back instead on Labor for wanting to cost the consumers by increasing the RET, but would he explain the $41 billion of the taxpayers money going to the fossil fuel lobby?

  8. Not only has Bishop (B.) not helped the Libs cause this week but they are being shown up as wanting in national leadership – Baird, Weatherill, BCA/ACOSS and today KPMG are calling for hard decisions to be made. And the ALP are out there also saying that there will be also be hard decisions to be made should they win office. ‘boy who cried wolf’ government is not going to cut it for much longer.

  9. Mark Kenny is really having a go at Abbott over Bronnie:

    [By putting Bronwyn Bishop “on probation”, after her taxpayer-funded helicopter fantasy, Tony Abbott has all but co-opted her to the executive, cynically extinguishing what remained of the Speaker’s putative neutrality in umpiring the most contested terrain on the political landscape.

    Leaving aside her past performance in the chair, the PM’s “P” plate declaration makes her no different from any minister in his team. The terms of Bishop’s engagement are identical to theirs: if she displeases him, she’s gone. No other criteria are relevant. This is hardly the institutional arrangement one would choose if genuine independence were of any import.

    Another way of looking at it is that the final arbiter of what is fair and what is not in administering the House of Representatives is now, to all intents and purposes, Tony Abbott. The Prime Minister has made himself the Speaker by putting the titular holder of that office on notice of dismissal.]

  10. briefly@3001 from previous thread


    I think moving Rohinga to Bangldesh where they speak a common language and share religion is a better option than mass resettlement.

    Bangladesh just refuse to resettle any Rohingya, saying they are Myanmar’s problem, not theirs.

    Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries, and they’re facing issues with flooding and the potential future loss of their homeland due to climate change.

    I think both officials and Bangladesh and the Rohingya would acknowledge that the resettlement of Rohingya in Bangladesh would put into disrepute the status of Rohingyas in Myammar. The claim is that they have been there for generations despite what the Burmese government say and giving it up means giving up their heritage in Myammar.

  11. [Gusface reporting on Twitter that Liberal internal polling also showing 46/54.]

    Gusface still getting those secret polling figures 🙂

  12. BH, Hairy Nose. I think the Eagles did the right thing. Good on them.

    i only posted half my comment before. Here’s the other half, it was on the other thread.

    (I know Swans fans who lost alot of respect for him because of that….)

    And I get where they are coming from. I remember playing footy and it didn’t matter when or where you never let opposition supporters know they got to you or that you even heard them. Unless you’ve just kicked a goal.

    I look alot like Goodes, have the same colour skin, hair and beard and have heard all that shit before. he should have taken it out on the game – done one of his amazingly bullshit good things, then went past the fans who abused him and let them know they inspired it. Its not about him, its a team game.

    Then he should have publicly condemned it afterward.

    Straight Away. Before he was off the ground.

    Made a point of mentioning it after the game, and saying how disapppointed he was to hear that during indigenous week. How sad it was that in 2012 people still held such attitudes. That sort of thing. That would have been so much more powerful. I dunno if anyone has that sort of control. I dunno if I could have done that.

    So i can totally understand why he reacted the way he did and wouldn’t condemn him for it.

    All of this has been lost to the racists cos ultimately alot of people bvooing don’t like the blacks getting uppity. They see what Goodes did, what Winmar did 20 years earlier and any number of other things in football and probably Australia generally and don’t like it.

  13. [20

    Shanghai stock market down almost 8.5% at the close today.

    The comrades couldn’t stop people selling ?]


  14. Raara and briefly

    Yes both good points but I was assuming that Australia could donate a pretty large sum of cash to make good things happen.

    Yes IF the Rohinga have been there for generations, every effort should be made to fix the situation but better to shift borders than have internal ethnic tensions. Might take a lot of diplomacy.

    I am not trying to make a huge case on the rohinga issue. i was just looking for alternatives to mass resettlement in distant lands.

    Yesterday you made a comment on my TPV suggestion about 2 classes etc. I accept that that is a real possibility, but IF the alternative is either people sent back to persecution or if massed into concentration camps, I can probably wear it.

  15. Apparently the result of teatowelgate (the shock horror revelation that EMILY’s List had put Gillard’s misogyny speech on a teatowel) resulted in the teatowels selling out at Conference and orders for 1500 online.

  16. daretotread@22

    Raara and briefly

    Yes both good points but I was assuming that Australia could donate a pretty large sum of cash to make good things happen.

    Yes IF the Rohinga have been there for generations, every effort should be made to fix the situation but better to shift borders than have internal ethnic tensions. Might take a lot of diplomacy.

    I am not trying to make a huge case on the rohinga issue. i was just looking for alternatives to mass resettlement in distant lands.

    My opinion is that the Burmese government is even harder to deal with than say Syria, Iran, Vietnam or any of the other places refugee comes from. Even the opposition in Myammar refuse to acknowledge the Rohingya refugees as Burmese.

    The Burmese government will not accept back the Rohingya refugees, and their existing Rohingya population is being detained in specific areas within Myammar, from the report in 4 Corners.

    Not much creativity needed to figure out where sums of money will go if we give it to their government to sort out.

  17. [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, July 27, 2015 at 5:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Gusface reporting on Twitter that Liberal internal polling also showing 46/54.


    Presumably you don’t find this claim convincing.

  18. [22

    We need to devise a far more intelligent way of responding to displaced/dispossessed populations. They are not a threat. They are a gift.

    Economies are in the first and last place social. Economies are comprised of people. The implication of this is that if we have more people we can create a stronger economy. Of course, we need to invest in the population. But the returns from such investments will compound forever – will add to our future well-being indefinitely. So we should find ways to welcome settlers – to accept, induct and mobilise them. We should do this not only because this would help the dispossessed, the vulnerable and the dependent. We should do this because it will strengthen our people forever and a day.

  19. The new migrants will not be sent to Rooty Hill, they should go to areas which would welcome them, especially if accompanied by extra support and funding. This has happened in some country towns, such a s Shepparton. It is the support and funding which makes the difference.

    [What will happen to the 2,000 or so people already sent to Manus Island and Nauru? How much more will they have to endure in the name of stopping the boats, or deaths at sea, or political expedience?

    The fate of these people was put to Marles by the Asylum Seeker Resource Centre’s Pamela Curr, who told the room that women are facing escalating threats in the community on Nauru. Curr opened by saying she did not wish to demonise Nauruans, but demanded to know what an ALP government would do to help refugees living on the island.

    Suddenly we were no longer talking about hypothetical boats that could arrive under a potential future policy – these are real people facing enormous and ongoing difficulties right now, as a direct result of mandatory offshore processing and placement.

    It was the first time Marles had to almost completely skirt a question. Despite having worked hard to convince the country he is genuinely worried about the health and safety of people seeking asylum, the shadow minister was at a loss to explain what he would be doing to improve the situation of those who have survived the journey by sea, only to be sent back across it to be held in limbo.

    Marles eventually argued Labor would be more successful than the Coalition at negotiating with Pacific neighbours to resettle the refugees, but it wasn’t clear why. He said he did not think those stranded on either of the islands could be brought back to Australia.]

  21. William Bowe
    Gusface reporting on Twitter that Liberal internal polling also showing 46/54.]
    Re internal polling. After the UK elections it “was revealed” that the internal polling of both Labor and the Conservatives had pretty much got it right well before the election.

    In light of all the public ones being so wRONg could you give a comment on the general , if there is one, difference between Party internal polling methods/styles and that that Joe and Josephine Public get ? Or was this a one off ? Ta.

  22. Qanda Tonight’s Panel
    Annastacia Palaszczuk – Premier of Queensland
    Archbishop Mark Coleridge – Catholic Archbishop of Brisbane
    Ron Boswell – Former Nationals Senator
    Anne Tiernan – School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University
    Monica Bradley – Innovation strategist

  23. [Mark Kenny is really having a go at Abbott over Bronnie]

    Once the idea of Kill Bill being a No Go works its way into the gallery’s collective consciousness the hive mind will need a new target for their blood lust. Chopper makes a perfect candidate. The message seems to have reached the Mark Kenny part of the hive a bit more strongly than some others, but it will disseminate throughout. Abbott will be desperately looking for a unicorn to distract the hacks or else they will just keep at her until she costs him too much to hang on to.

  24. [If he’d handed harvey the ball, instead of holding it away while he onjected to the decision, stood his mark and kept his wits about him he wouldn’t have lost the 50 or looked like an incompetent goose when Harvey stepped him and set up a goal. If he’d just kept his wits about him when harvey tricked him the same thing would have happened. All the sooking about that was pathetic.]

    Interesting perspective on cheating but more interesting to juxtapose on the goodes issue. Because I had accepted the argument the booing was racist. I’m not sure I do anymore. Yes there will be some racists but the only way to stop that is closing down the stadium. In the interim throwing out and banning for life will probably do.

    I wasn’t at the game I was watching at home. I have spoken to members and foundation members of the Eagles at the game. Their opinion was that goodes was booed by parts of the crowd where goodes had been a dirty player in front of that part of the crowd.

    I think the term dirty is a bit lazy and risks becoming an unnecessary distraction. If you are a swan fan he is a hero. He plays hard, it is a hard game you are meant to do that. He will bravely and passionately fly the flag for the jersey and particularly the past players say you are meant to do that. And he stages for frees and lots of players do that. If you side does it, it is smart play and when the other side do it it is bad umpiring and cheating.

    Most of us at the game or watching haven’t played afl and aren’t there for the beauty of the game. we are there for the contest, the drama, the entertainment – to see our side win. So goodes is a good player he was at his best an awesome player. He is supposed to tackle hard, including testing out the new boy – he is supposed to fly the flag and object when exactly the thing he is doing to the other team is done to one of his team. If you listen to the modern wisdom he is also supposed to be a soccer sook staging and begging for a free at every chance.

    No doubt all players do it all to some extent, and great players do it more. Unsurprisingly Harvey deliberately cheating to get a 50 meters is applauded by his sook coach and norths fans. Freos fans love ballentyne at his best. But they are, like goodes, playing their role in a drama, they are playing the villian and a villian in a drama tends to be either evil or a fool. You boo them or you laugh at them. A great player who is happy to play the villian is going to get boos an average player will get less boos and more laughter.

    If you want your afl crowd to daintily eat cucumber sandwiches, sip champagne and golf clap go for it, I’ll be at a soccer game watching less staging with clear rules and better refs and I’ll still be yelling out negative characterisations of the refs parents and eyesight. I’ll be booing the good but aggressive villains on there side and demanding red cards, while applauding players for my side doing exactly the same thing.

    I remember booing a free kick in a soccer game and the guy beside me said ‘I think that was the right call’ and I replied ‘yes it was and if we don’t boo he’ll keep on doing it.’ He joined in immediately! I don’t expect my booing to change anything, I’m not an expert who can intelligently discuss the difference between a 1 and 2 man striker combination but I can tell you when one isn’t working because no goals are being scored.

    None of my booing or suggesting the ref should just be done with it and put on an opposition strip is racist, I don’t care what color or ethnicity the villains are, I don’t care what race or color my heros are. What I care about is the role they play in my entertainment.

    Goodes is a magnificent admirable Australian. He is a good footballer that was, at his peak, fantastic. If he is replacing the speed brilliance and athleticism of his youth with wisdom, strength and some shameless staging good on him. If he is going to impose himself on the game, make himself felt, get in other players heads, good on him. If I were a Sydney fan I’d be stoked and I’d be able to defend the least defensible aspects of his game with a cheeky smile. But all those things make him the villain in my afternoons entertainment and villains get booed.

  25. Peg @ 35

    Still nonsense. Ignores the advent of Mark Latham, the white-anting of Julia Gillard during the 2010 election campaign, the fact that there was no way Labor was going to win 2013, but just how badly it was going to lose. And it ignores the fact that Rudd went into the 2007 election with a boat turn back policy and only abandoned it after a couple of disasters – a deliberate deadly boat sabotage and the Oceanic Viking situation.

    As I said earlier today, stopping the boats does win votes, but not stopping those boats will lose votes by the bucketful.

  26. [Happy to see a trickle effect away from this hopeless Govt.

    May it continue…]
    Shit, a positive comment from Rex. Keep it up mate.

  27. [Re internal polling. After the UK elections it “was revealed” that the internal polling of both Labor and the Conservatives had pretty much got it right well before the election.]

    We don’t really know how true this is, of course. In Australia, internal polling has big advantages in being privy to a) the Integrated Public Number Database, which is assembled primarily for the benefit of police and emergency services agencies and probes into all the nooks and crannies left out of published directories, and b) the electoral roll. I’m not sure of the exact situation in Britain, but presumably there are similar-but-different things in play there. However, that doesn’t leave them immune to the problem of declining response rates or, in the British context, having to model turnout.

  28. Ch7 news has “exclusive” about Abbott sounding out Ministers over plan to hold plebiscite on SSM after next election.

    However apparently some Ministers see this as really a delaying tactic and want issue brought on for discussion.

  29. Mark Riley ‏@Riley7News 11m11 minutes ago
    EXCLUSIVE: Tony Abbott sounds out senior colleagues on option of a plebiscite on same sex marriage after the next election. #7News
    15 retweets 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet15 Favorite Follow

  30. A couple of weeks ago I’m driving the dogs to the vet and listening to Fran Kelly on Radio National Brekky – it was that or nothing.
    On comes some union fella talking about the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement – ChAFTA.
    He reckoned that temporary Chinese workers employed in Australia would not be on the same wages and conditions as Aussie workers and thus would be undercutting them.
    Fran said Minister Andrew Robb said they would be.
    The union fella said not so.
    Fran said the head of the BCA who was on RN Brekky the previous day said they would be paid the same – and she played a tape of her saying that.
    The union fella said that was wrong.

    Oh dear – who to believe?
    Well “The Conversation” has done a Fact Check.

    And the union fella -Michael O’Connor – is correct when he says:

    “First off, there is no statement that says workers working side by side with an Australian worker shall receive the same conditions and pay. That’s nowhere in the agreement… go through the pages of the agreement and look at the Memorandum of Understanding and it doesn’t say it in black and white; nowhere in the agreement.”

    The Verdict:
    [Michael O’Connor is correct…..
    Mr O’Connor’s concerns have considerable merit.

    And the Review of the Verdict?

    Michael O’Connor is totally correct in stating that nowhere in the MOU is there a specific requirement for foreign workers to receive the same wages and conditions as Australian workers that they may work beside

  31. What on earth is the point of a plebiscite? Oh, that’s right, a delaying tactic is the point. The man’s a complete coward.

  32. I wasn’t at Subi yesterday but several of my colleagues were. All Eagles supporters. All in no doubt at all that the booing of Goodes was clearly and unequivocally racist.

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